Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:
• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.
Other relevant developments:
• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.
• The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.
I know of someone who illegally takes psilocybin. He’s as mad as a cut snake, drives like a maniac, and speaks in the equivalent of tongues. Last Saturday he almost
collided with my niece and her two children. When asked why he was driving like a madman he claimed he was practising for when he had to deliver an organ for a transplant recipient. He has also taken to wearing a large cross, with the apparent attempt to impersonate a member of the clergy. And when speaking to my nephew recently he spoke in an unintelligible Scottish brogue; he’s a Kiwi. I suggested to him that he halves his dose of magic mushrooms, which he sources at Murwillumbah.
Mavis
From what I hear anecdotally about betting on elections the bookies might let you put $20 on.
Mavis says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 9:11 pm
I know of someone who illegally takes psilocybin. He’s as mad as a cut snake, drives like a maniac, and speaks in the equivalent of tongues. Last Saturday he almost
collided with my niece and her two children. When asked why he was driving like a madman he claimed he was practising for when he had to deliver an organ for a transplant recipient. He has also taken to wearing a large cross, with the apparent attempt to impersonate a member of the clergy. And when speaking to my nephew recently he spoke in an unintelligible Scottish brogue; he’s a Kiwi. I suggested to him that he halves his dose of magic mushrooms, which he sources at Murwillumbah.
____________________
I had no idea you know kronomex.
Mavis
Most of the trials with psilocybin involve a single dose under strict conditions. Michael Pollan (of Omnivores Dilemma fame) wrote a book about it called How to Change Your Mind.
guytaur:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 9:00 pm
[‘I don’t think Labor are that stupid.’]
I certainly hope so though the reporting of it seems legit.
While having no hard evidence to support it, it stands to reason that the LGBTI+ community would support Labor far more than the Tories, in the knowledge that they want to give the Churches special rights to discriminate.
I wish they wouldn’t include politicians on Q&A. They ruin the exchange of opinion.
Mavis
Yes that’s how I see it too
I think Labor thinks it can afford to change policy against the lgbti+ community because they have nowhere else to go – and they think they can pick up votes from conservative catholics.
rhwombat @ #2212 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 7:25 pm
Kyber! No, well before him, and mid-late 70s, so before John Hunter existed (now I’ve been googling) so I’ve got the names ballsed up. I was at St Vs (very spinal and local block orientated thanks to pioneering work by Brian Dwyer (Dominic’s father), in ITU with Bob Wright who was setting up the ambulance training scheme, but had come form RPA, so no background really in regional anaesthesia, and I remember I was keen on trying the then new Ketamine as a low dose IV analgesic, Newcastle was a big trauma (and here was a lot of it) centre for the Hunter, helicopter retrievals were just starting, they were starting using thoracic epidurals, blah blah, and meanwhile Bob was big on ‘sedating’ the ‘whole body’, so a lot of paralysis and ventilation, not that there’s anything wrong with that, necessarily!
Rocking chairs and a pipe on the verandah stuff. I’ll make a few phone calls tomorrow, see if I can track him down.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say:
Notwithstanding the key differences between the rape allegations made against Christian Porter and Bill Shorten, Shorten now has absolutely no prospect of fulfilling his delusion of returning to the Labor leadership if Albanese departs the scene (surely less likely given the Government’s sticky predicament).
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/03/when-federal-polls-are-50-50.html
When Federal Polls Are 50-50, Oppositions Rarely Win
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/07/the-big-issue/comment-page-46/#comment-3571323
Religious conservatives in general, on the grounds they apparently swung against the ALP in 2019.
Of course the Greens make fewer concessions to religious conservatives, so they could pick up votes from increased ALP concessions to religious conservatives. One place that could matter to the ALP is Grayndler.
Rossmcg:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 9:13 pm
[‘From what I hear anecdotally about betting on elections the bookies might let you put $20 on.’]
Damn it. That means I’ll only make 40c. I knew it was too good to be true.
“ Internally, it is a live issue. Junior lawyers are upset about the firm acting for Christian Porter. ”
Seriously, I think some of those lawyers are in the wrong job. Everyone is entitled to legal representation.
BB,
Very sorry to hear this.
Gary Johnstone was a great supporter of STEM students, and gave generously to support their training, and sponsored prizes.
Bloody asbestos – grrr
“Vogon Poet says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 7:11 pm
Rex airlines have claimed that they and Virgin are only getting the scraps of #QantasKeeper“
Virgin should be able to grab some of the flights to Queensland destinations which is probably where most people will want to go, unless each destination has a quota of cheaper* seats.
Rex won’t do too well – there are only so many people who want to fly to Merimbula, Burnie and Devonport.
*There is no way for passengers to know how much they are saving with their government bargain fare. Despite Morrison’s claim that discounts will be based on “February fares” ordinary fares vary so widely that people will not know how much they would have paid without the subsidy.
Of course Qantas would never be tempted to make a little extra profit courtesy of taxpayers’ money, would they?
Diogenes:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 9:17 pm
[‘Most of the trials with psilocybin involve a single dose under strict conditions.’]
I thought that would be the case, my example of someone taking psilocybin illegally obviously overdosing on it.
Mavis
It’s amazing that one dose can have such a lasting effect.
They also do microdosing with such small doses you have no psychedelic effects. I’m not sure how that is progressing.
Kevin Bonham @ #2234 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 9:32 pm
They don’t win when they are, on average, 51-49 to the Opposition, either. 😡
Diogenes @ #2254 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 9:17 pm
‘How to Change Your Mind’ is a really good read for those interested in these things – accessible, referenced, a heady mix of science and personal anecdotes, especially of his own experiences, and for me, I can say enlightening, and one of the best books of the last few years.
This World Science Festival exploration of psychodelics is introduced by Pollan, has a great panel, and moderator. I cannot recommend it strongly enough.
https://youtu.be/Fi66wFfOC-4
Kevin B
Thanks for this. As a political tragic, I think the Australian electorate is currently of a mood to elect whoever is currently in government, state and federally.
Much as I am unhappy about it, I think it is most likely the Coalition will win the next Federal election.
But, I have a faint hope 🙂
My late husband, back in the days when he was working for The Sydney Cove Redevelopment Authority, and pre rigid security measures, stayed back after work one night and, as his father was a head gardener in Parks and Gardens and at Taronga Zoo at various times, he knew what to look for, so went around to the Botanical Gardens in Sydney and stole some of their Peyote Buttons. He then proceeded to grow them in his garden in Cremorne. 😀
This was long before I met him.
ItzaDream @ #2294 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 9:29 pm
Itza.
Try this: Gibbons J, James O & Quail A. Relief of pain in chest injury. Br J Anaesth (1973) 45:1136-1138.
Tony Quail taught at University of Newcastle while my wife was an undergraduate.
I don’t think Shorten harbours any serious intentions of
re-taking the Labor leadership. Since the Porter allegations, I have given thought as to whether Shorten was subject to any residual political harm for the rape accusation against him albeit he was completely cleared,
thinking a little mud may’ve stuck. Porter and Morrison indirectly will I think suffer similarly.
There was the anaesthetist* at Royal Newcastle who got into administration and eventually rose to the rank of Chief Executive. He eventually bankrupted the place and he and the board were sacked. He then applied for an anaesthetic position there and was surprised that he was not appointed.
*name on application
If only Prozac hadn’t been so wildly popular, and thus withdrawn from use, it would have suited Andrew Robb to a T.
Oh! RHW just saw you named him as a co-author
C@tmomma @ #2311 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:04 pm
Prozac is fluoxetine. It has not been withdrawn from use in Australia, but is much less widely used since the SNRIs have become available.
I guess the $880,000 pa from a Chinese government adjacent billionaire didn’t cure Robb of his depression. Orrrr maybe it did and he has relapsed after losing the soothing $880k pa.
.
Liberal Andrew Robb took $880k China job as soon as he left Parliament
https://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-andrew-robb-took-880k-china-job-as-soon-as-he-left-parliament-20170602-gwje3e.html
rhwombat @ #2273 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:00 pm
Good on you, nice paper, thanks. Yes, Owen James (1973 as published) is the one. No one else in the State was doing this as I recall. In fact, at St Vs, no one was doing epidurals at all, it was all spinals, whereas at RNS they were big, especially with Cousins was just back from Stanford; I was doing some double blind epidural studies with him there. He was a man on the move.
(Somehoworother, I know Tony Quail as Kyber Quail. Am I making that up, or what?)
Oakeshott Country @ #2277 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:05 pm
uh oh
We largely make them and then pass them onto someone else to deal with.
It’s probably an honest admission by the Government, as they have proved most ineffective in actually dealing with and solving problems.
The Potato just can’t help being offensive, can he?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-11/tensions-new-zealand-australia-criminal-deportation-peter-dutton/13238244
Diogenes:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 9:37 pm
[‘Seriously, I think some of those lawyers are in the wrong job. Everyone is entitled to legal representation.’]
That they are. Barristers are subject to the cab-rank rule, but there are easy ways of getting around it. Solicitors, on the other hand, can pick and choose.
After representing a client who raped his ten-year-old daughter repeatedly and was found guilty, I was so disgusted, upset that I never again took on another like case. He denied the offence on the basis of being unable to get an erection. To test this, he was given a special rubber band and instructed to put it on his penis at night. If he did get an erection, the rubber band would expand but would not contract. It expanded! Police also asked his daughter, who by then was a teen, to make what is known as a pretext call. She rang him saying, “Daddy, why did you do those horrible things to me”? Police recorded the call. He responded, “Because I love you, baby”. Needless to say, the prosecution had an almost water-tight case. Shown the evidence he still wouldn’t enter guilty pleas at his arraignment, which resulted in a longer sentence.
Generally, I found serious male crims were the best to represent. They were quite appreciative as long as you did your best for them. In fact, there were some who couldn’t wait to return inside, back to their mates & a structured routine. Sorry, I’ve digressed.
This is an old government – forgotten at times with the 3 changes of PM. Overall though it’s starting to feel stale. It’s worn, dependant on marketing and slogans rather than policy. It just might be time for change.
Labor is in the game for the next election.
rhwombat @ #2251 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:10 pm
I do know Prozac is Fluoxetine. Although I admit I am rusty on the exact amounts flowing from Dr’s script through to the Pharmacy, what I do remember was that when it was first released in Australia it flew off the shelves, probably to a few people who didn’t really need it, if you get my drift. So it was restricted.
This article supports my recollections:
https://www.theage.com.au/technology/has-prozac-made-us-happy-20070519-ge4xea.html
Until a rather serious side effect was discovered.
SNRIs are are a better alternative it seems.
Player One @ #2104 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 1:43 pm
Is there any subject on which you are not a know it all?
grimace @ #2258 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 10:52 pm
I doubt it.
Socrates @ #2200 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 4:12 pm
Don’t forget the buyout of the electricity, gas and coal contracts. The cost would be extraordinary.
Apropos of nothing much:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
And just when you start talking antidepressants, an interesting story pops up:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/good-money-after-bad-domestic-violence-drug-trial-would-need-another-13-5m-20210311-p579vz.html
Rossmcg @ #2252 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 6:13 pm
An accountant that used to work for me had a spreadsheet that worked out how to capitalise on various sport novelty bets. His accounts were suspended.
I had forgotten that Owen James and the Board were eventually sacked for refusing to close Wallsend Miners’ District Hospital after John Hunter was opened. You can literally see John Hunter from Wallsend (at least from the area I spent my first 17 years)
https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/473716/doctor-defends-medical-staff-over-forced-adoptions/
Itza:
Thank you for your interesting response.
I noted the measurement was down to some depth, though I don’t know what the depth is. It may be surprising as there is often a difference between human and artificial sensing: perhaps human sensing contains a sort of general cut out such that signals below some threshold are discarded and not perceived at all, whereas artificial sensing detects what’s there and so get lower confidence signals coming through from greater depth. Nevertheless the point that the (individual) skin flows do not directly determine the internal flows stands, at least in isolation
However—there are mathematicians on the loose—and
– the fact that (apparently) the single invasive continuous measurement device (or a small number of devices) is very good at measuring the core flows (or whatever the term is) means that there is something common to those flows, and it is probably the case that this common thing can be recovered mathematically from the skin flows without knowing the resistance (unless there is coordinated resistance)
– the skin flows and central flows are part of the same network and there are generalised “tomography” approaches that can recover network flows from a subset of measurements, given approximate knowledge of the network topology (the generalised tomography is not tied to slices as in CT, but refers to reconstruction of the whole from partial and lower dimensioned measurement, such as 2D slices for reconstruction of 3D or point flows for reconstruction of network flows – this is flows from (other) flows plus topology, not flows from injection rate + resistance
Basically things have to add up (except in the obvious case, a further allusion to the “bleeding obvious”), and one can find the terms (the elements of the addition) through a combination of a limited number of measures and some fairly sophisticated mathematics. And lots of computation…
And one would suspect too that in the event of the bleeding obvious (and even non-obvious bleeding) the mathematics would fail in a detectable way.
In fact it might be that blood flows are simpler than flows in a data network because the underlying pressure-resistance-flow relationship yields extra information. In a data network packets can be discarded, which I think is the rough analogue for the effect of pressure and resistance, but unlike that effect, discarding is not predictable as it occurs due to random data corruption or otherwise difficult to predict things like buffer exhaustion.
Also, Iit seems that people have somehow worked out way to measure saturation from photography though I don’t know about this.
Also remember that physicians think they can diagnose existence of hidden problems by sight, and many of those who so claim appear to be able actually to so do. However, my impression is that the ability to explain the diagnosis lags the ability to obtain it. Explainability is a big problem in many automatic techniques in visual signal processing.
I can state with certainty that the bookies accept far bigger bets than $20 on at least some politics markets. I did very nicely indeed on Joe Biden’s win (at $1.50).
Boerwar:
The Charge of the Heavy Brigade?
My apologies – where it says “Bandt” I somehow read “Brandis”…
For Bandt, it should instead be:
– The Charge of the Light Mobile Brigade
This is potentially revolutionary..
https://www.aiche.org/academy/conferences/aiche-annual-meeting/2020/proceeding/paper/721a-high-efficiency-hydrogen-production-decoupled-water-splitting-electrochemical-chemical-cycle
https://reneweconomy.com.au/bill-gates-backs-1-kg-green-hydrogen-water-splitter-technology/
Emergency services volunteers were invited into the city on Sunday to get injected with the Astra Zeneca vaccine so I decided to give it a go.
Following a news report that Danish Authorities has suspended using this vaccine because they think it might cause blood clots, I decided to do a little research. I was a little surprised to learn that it has efficacy of only 66%, compared to over 90% for Pfizer. You need two doses 12 weeks apart, 3 weeks for Pfizer and because a vaccine takes time to work, you still need to practice social distancing and other precautions. I couldn’t find another reference to the Danish concern.
Some colleagues felt quite unwell on the following day but it has no impact on me at all.
Granny Anny
Thank you for your report. I feel as if we’re all taking part in a medical experiment and would prefer to wait until things have settled down before taking part.
Millions and millions of people have already had these various vaccines including the two approved in Australia. I’m medically cautious, avoid taking Panadol unless absolutely essential, but will not hesitate to take whatever vaccine is offered to me.
Tom the first and best says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 9:32 pm
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/07/the-big-issue/comment-page-46/#comment-3571323
Religious conservatives in general, on the grounds they apparently swung against the ALP in 2019.
Of course the Greens make fewer concessions to religious conservatives…
Of course, to follow the Green path is also a matter of faith in its own way. The Greens are tiresomely sanctimonious and ideologically holier than the rest of us. They have their purity tests and most of us fail them. More than a handful of my Green-attached friends are escapees from strict Catholicism, and have simply replaced one code with another. Needless to say, they are conservative too, in the sense that they despise the demotic drift; the common hedonism, and believe they have a right to instruct us as to our morals and customs.