The big issue

Issue polling, Tasmanian polling, election timing and preselection latest.

Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:

• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.

• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.

Other relevant developments:

• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.

The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,316 comments on “The big issue”

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  1. citizen @ #2150 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 3:22 pm

    ABC article “Liberal candidate questions timing of Christian Porter allegation so close to WA election”

    Scott Leary, candidate for seat of Albany (held by Labor) tries to link Porter allegation with WA election. Zak Kirkup (unsurprisingly) contradicts him.

    Would this be Confessions’ electorate?

    The turning point of the campaign. 😆

  2. boerwar
    The ‘Left’ were actually fighting fascists in places like Spain. Many on the right in the UK and Europe thought them thar Nazis were pretty spiffing. Lot’s of good ideas for how thing should be run ‘properly’ .

  3. Should anyone believe P1 nonsense here is a link to the draft policy. She probable hasn’t read it, but it is worth a read.
    https://www.alp.org.au/conference2021
    Click the link to the draft policy, it is a PDF.

    The 2021 conference is going on line which should make it pretty dull.

    The think with the Labor party, it actually does have active members and it is not decided behind doors.

  4. Well Turnbull and his allies have just lost on the Republic.

    I just watched the Drum. The system is broken because Indigenous people never ceded Sovereignty and we can act to counter the forces of colonosition that are entrenched in the system.

    So therefore we have to knock the house down and rebuild it. Renovation just won’t work.

    The argument for change destroys the minimalist model argument.

    Edit: sorry the pro monarchist and the National Republican Adrian Piccoli seemed to agree with this proposition

  5. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 6:28 pm

    boerwar

    The ‘Left’ were actually fighting fascists in places like Spain.’ Some were. Most were not.

    The Left came very close to leaving the democracies almost totally exposed militarily to Hitler, and Mussolini. We are fortunate that they failed.

    True that many in the Right had fascist tendencies.

    Enough of them did not do so to make the difference.

  6. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2148 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 6:17 pm

    So, it’s already not good enough, even before it’s been released.

    Basically, no – a policy based on perpetuating the use of fossil fuels (including the dreaded gas, which many here don’t seem to realize), with a sop to new technologies like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen is not good enough.

    I’m sure you will join me in hoping something better comes out of the actual conference. But what is clear is that you haven’t read it. Despite claiming you had.

    But I do have to say, some things in the current proposal actually made me laugh out loud …

    In addition, Labor will work to develop a domestic decarbonized vehicle industry strategy across the country comprising electric vehicles utilising the latest in digital technology.

    Ummm. What exactly does “digital technology” have to do with “electric vehicles”? Do “digital” electric vehicles emit less C02 than those nasty old “analog” ones?

    Jeez, perhaps as D & M claims, I’m just so out of date!

  7. BW

    Churchill decided to officially ally with communists to defeat fascists.

    That’s a right wing politician making that calculation.
    He saw the danger of the extreme on his side of politics and rated it higher than working with the left.

  8. boerwarsays:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 6:34 pm
    So. Why ARE Australia’s Left opinion leaders generally silent on China’s Uigher Genocide?
    ________________
    Actually after all day BW has made at least a cogent point, but which Left are you talking about? And if you could name some said ‘opinion leaders’ that would also help.

    I do note that the Greens have been regularly bringing up the Uighur issue.

  9. ‘guytaur says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 6:36 pm

    BW

    Churchill decided to officially ally with communists to defeat fascists. ‘

    That is historically incorrect but what has that got to do with the supine silence of the Australian Left generally in the face of China’s Uigher Genocide? Maybe you are agreeing that the Left’s disarmament push in the face of Hitler is as silly as the Left’s peace studies proposal in the face of Xi?

    It surely ticks all the Left’s boxes: concentration camps, racism, ethnic cleansing, indoctrination, minority rights, institutionalized rape, mass property expropriation, forced labour… ‘

  10. Frednk @ #2124 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 6:28 pm

    Should anyone believe P1 nonsense here is a link to the draft policy. She probable hasn’t read it, but it is worth a read.
    https://www.alp.org.au/conference2021
    Click the link to the draft policy, it is a PDF.

    The 2021 conference is going on line which should make it pretty dull.

    The think with the Labor party, it actually does have active members and it is not decided behind doors.

    In 3, 2, 1…Player One will fire up the Smarm gene and come up with…’you call that a policy?’ 🙄

    I mean, it’s really, really easy to be an armchair critic from the comfort of your Eco Resort on the South Coast of NSW. And I hazard a guess, that’s all Player One has ever done.

  11. Years ago Christine Milne even handed Xi a letter. Good on her.

    Greens’ leader Senator Christine Milne handed Xi a letter, which was released at the same time to the media, venting the Greens’ concerns about “human rights in China.” It specifically cited “the ongoing persecution of minorities in China, including the Tibetan and Uighur communities, people of the Falun Gong faith and those advocating democracy.” It called on Xi to “promote freedom of speech and association,” “condemn human rights abuses” and release political prisoners from detention and house arrest.

    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/11/29/gree-n29.html

  12. Morrison’s $1.2 billion FlightRorts is copping a pasting on the Project. Even Price doesn’t like it.

    Meanwhile both NSW And Vic are strongly critical. Also tourism bodies.

    Not looking especially good for a LNP boost in Newspoll?

  13. Di Natale called on the Australian government to take ‘urgent action’:

    Di Natale said: “We are seeing the Chinese Government commit cultural genocide against the Uighur people. More than one million people have been rounded up and put in massive internment camps. The mass surveillance in Xinjiang is frightening, as is the forced labour and restrictions on free movement.

    https://greensmps.org.au/articles/greens-call-urgent-australian-government-action-face-cultural-genocide-uighur-people

  14. C@tmomma @ #2167 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 6:44 pm

    In 3, 2, 1…Player One will fire up the Smarm gene and come up with…’you call that a policy?’ 🙄

    I mean, it’s really, really easy to be an armchair critic from the comfort of your Eco Resort on the South Coast of NSW. And I hazard a guess, that’s all Player One has ever done.

    Feeling left out again, C@t? Someone stole your bell?

  15. RHWombat and Itsa, my experience with broken ribs from a purely personal experience was “strapping” works.

    I broke four ribs in a football game along with getting knocked out and I recall when I “came round” the pain I experienced was excruciating when breathing but that subsided once I’d been “strapped up. I didn’t need any pain killers apart from aspirin, don’t remember if paracetamol was available then or not. Strapping came off after a couple of weeks and away I went again.

    My question is when was it decided that rib injuries should be left alone and managed with analgesia and why? I always feel sorry for people with rib fractures now when comparing how I was treated to how it’s done now including my mum when she broke a couple after a fall.

  16. ‘Akon says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 6:47 pm

    Di Natale called on the Australian government to take ‘urgent action’:’

    Uh huh. What ‘urgent action’? Send Xi a copy of the Greens’ peace studies curriculum?

  17. According to the Australia China Research Institute the Australian Greens are the only party really pushing to take action on the issue:

    While the Australian Government has strongly criticised the PRC’s actions in Xinjiang insofar as diplomatic parlance will allow, it has not indicated any material shift from a position it re-articulated in July this year, when Foreign Minister Marise Payne stated the Australian government would not be imposing targeted sanctions.[3] The opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) continues to be broadly supportive of this approach. The Australian Greens, on the other hand, continue to push for sanctions.

    https://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/australian-government-xinjiang-october-2019-update

  18. How bloody predictable:

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will today unveil a plan to halve the price of nearly 800,000 airline tickets, as part of a $1.2 billion tourism package to offset the impending end of JobKeeper. The discounted tickets will initially be offered for flights to and from 13 tourism-dependent regions from April 1, of which eight are in marginal seats, while four of the five others are in safe Coalition electorates. Destinations include the Gold Coast, Cairns, the Whitsundays region, the Sunshine Coast, the Lasseter region which includes Uluru, Alice Springs, Launceston, Devonport, Burnie, Broome, Avalon, Merimbula and Kangaroo Island.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/thebriefing/max-opray/2021/03/11/cheap-airfares-marginal-seats

  19. Meanwhile both NSW And Vic are strongly critical. Also tourism bodies.

    In Qld they are questioning why someone in SEQ can’t get a discounted flight to FNQ. Only options for us are south, and, well, bugger that!

  20. ‘Dandy Murray says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 6:56 pm

    Meanwhile both NSW And Vic are strongly critical. Also tourism bodies.

    In Qld they are questioning why someone in SEQ can’t get a discounted flight to FNQ. Only options for us are south, and, well, bugger that!’

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.

  21. I am surprised that there does not seem to have been any discussion about the other issue confronting C Porter.
    The population in Victoria has increased, that in WA has decreased. So Vic will get another Federal seat, WA will lose one. The most likely seat in WA to go is Pearce (Taylor) with Cowan (Ann Aly) also a possibility. If Pearce is abolished that would have an impact on 4 other electorates, if Cowan goes that would impact 6 electorates.
    The Electoral Commission is expected to make an announcement in the next couple of weeks. Then parties can appeal.
    So what happens if Taylor is left without a seat? Does Morrisson keep him as a lame duck AG or send him to the back bench to see out his term. Would the party try to get another WA Lib eg Irons, to retire at the next election so Porter could run. Not sure that would go down too well with the voters.
    If Pearce does go, would have to see where those voters finish up to see broader implications.

    With another seat in Victoria, hopefully that might be a pick-up for Labor

  22. boerwarsays:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 6:59 pm
    Akon
    What ‘sanctions’? We refuse to sell China iron ore?
    ________
    You would support that I assume.

  23. rossco
    The seat issue has been canvassed, I believe. One suggestion was that abolishing his seat might give Porter an ‘honorable’ out.

  24. ‘Akon says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 7:00 pm

    boerwarsays:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 6:59 pm
    Akon
    What ‘sanctions’? We refuse to sell China iron ore?
    ________
    You would support that I assume.’

    Uh huh. What ‘sanctions’ is Bandt proposing? Refuse to take Chinese tourists and Chinese students? Cut iron ore exports? What?

  25. ‘Independent assessments’ = yet another path of corruption for the crony capitalist mates of the most corrupt federal government since Federation.

  26. I mean I assume you support economic sanctions. So far you haven’t really laid out what you’d like to see in that regard. It almost seems that you really couldn’t give two shits about the issue except to use it as a rather limp lettuce to beat the Greens about with. 🙂

  27. ‘Akon says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 7:05 pm

    I mean….’
    Nice try. I mean, what is the answer to my question. What sanctions does Bandt propose?

  28. Two pieces of good news. The EU trade agreement with the most corrupt federal government since Federation will have CO2 emissions inside the agreement.

    The second, the EU is looking to levy CO2 tariffs on the crony capitalist mates of recalcitrants like the most corrupt federal government since Federation.

  29. boerwarsays:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 7:06 pm
    ‘Akon says:
    Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 7:05 pm

    I mean….’
    Nice try. I mean, what is the answer to my question. What sanctions does Bandt propose?
    __________
    I will leave you to it. I’m sure you are capable of the research, if you ever leave this page. 🙂

  30. I posted this on the WA election thread. I analyse a lot of infrastructure costs and the WA Liberals election promise costings make the Greek government look fiscally responsible. My actual cost estimates below are based on industry averages.

    “ You had one job… WA Shadow treasurer couldn’t answer questions about his own policies!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-11/liberals-under-fire-over-wa-election-costings-days-before-poll/13233926

    The Liberal costings are rubbish. Inflation makes costs go up, not down. So Roe 8 cannot cost less than last time unless the scope has been reduced. It is $800 million plus for the state share. Likewise undergrounding the city rail line would be expensive – around $250 million per km of track.

    I also looked at the energy policy. Assuming $2 billion per GW of solar or wind capacity, I’d say the Liberals policies would cost all up $13 to $16 billion. Their costing is laughable.”

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