Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:
• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.
Other relevant developments:
• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.
• The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.
boerwar
As the NZ Foreign Minister said about dutton’s ‘taking out the trash’ comment – “……only serve to trash his own reputation.The comments reflect his own personality.”
Mavis
If someone, for example, deliberately kicks an unarmed prisoner off a cliff to his death then that someone has it coming.
But I am not sure what complaint Porter would face. I assume you simply can’t refer someone as a sort of fishing expedition. You would have to put some details in the referrals?
For those muttering about how Labor isn’t putting forth any policies, or is pursuing a centrist path, could do worse than check out Joe Biden. The new President ran pretty much as a centrist, and now is pursuing some pretty radical stuff now in office. The Covid-19 relief bill passed yesterday is probably the biggest piece of social legislation since the Great Society stuff in the early 60s, and the voting reform, climate change and infrastructure stuff coming up is as radical as anything put forward in the US since the 1930s.
It’s all very well to show in Opposition what a hairy-chested reformist you are, but it doesn’t mean much if you don’t actually win the election. Personally, I’d rather Labor do whatever it takes to win office – without triggering undue panic, fear and loathing from the usual suspects – and then undertake genuine reform when in office.
The obvious comparison here is Tony Blair v Jeremy Corbyn. Blair did lots of terrible things in office (not least Iraq), but he still led a reformist government for a decade in Britain, the only such government in the UK in the last half-century. Blair can go to his grave rightly feeling that he achieved a number of social democratic objectives (record funding for the NHS andf education, halving child poverty, devolving power away from Westminster, peace in North Ireland, greatly increasing incomes across the UK, and many others), if only because Labour was in office for 13 straight years. Corbyn, by contrast, has achieved next to nothing after nearly 40 years in Parliament, because for much of it he was too busy being ideologically pure to get his hands dirty, such that when he became leader he was unelectable. Now, I’m personally probably more ideologically aligned with the likes of Corbyn and than I am with the likes of Blair, but I’d still rather see a long-term moderate Labo(u)r government, than a radical long-term Labo(u)r Opposition.
So don’t be too hard on Albo. He’s trying to walk a fine line between managing the expectations of his base, and reaching out to the middle ground that actually elects governments in this country, and personally I think he’s doing a pretty decent job of it, in what have been very difficult circumstances for Oppositions anywhere.
1934pc @ #2085 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 4:22 pm
Yes, they did. Too many, added at the last minute, not properly thought out, and with not enough party (read: factional) buy in.
They should go with less policies, but those policies should be better prepared, further in advance.
Oh, and I am also wishing for a pony for Christmas 🙂
‘poroti says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 4:41 pm
boerwar
As the NZ Foreign Minister said about dutton “……only serve to trash his own reputation.The comments reflect his own personality.”’
It is 100% deliberate by Dutton. He is feeding his law and order mob, and his racist vote.
boerwar
For sure , aimed straight at the 2GB Demographic’s shriveled hearts. Would have gone down a treat.
‘Hugoaugogo says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 4:42 pm
For those muttering about how Labor isn’t putting forth any policies, or is pursuing a centrist path, could do worse than check out Joe Biden. The new President ran pretty much as a centrist, and now is pursuing some pretty radical stuff now in office.’
There is a huge structural difference. He was not being wedged by the Greens.
I am curious what wedge the Coalition and the Greens will choose this time round.
Coal is dead. Marriage equality seems to have taken most of the sting out of social issues. The Coalition will promise more tax cuts. But that is hardly new. The Greens will promise the world in terms of government transfers but that is hardly new.
I am sure that the Coalition and the Greens are working feverishly together to put a wedge together but the early signs for them are not good.
‘poroti says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 4:47 pm
boerwar
For sure , aimed straight at the 2GB Demographic’s shriveled hearts. Would have gone down a treat.’
There needs to be a tit for tat here. Maybe New Zealand could start re-exporting ugly Australian tourists who behave badly in public.
boerwar:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 4:21 pm
[‘I assume that the referral would have to include some specifics underpinning the reasons why.
In this case, what would they be?’]
That’s difficult to determine. I guess a pattern of aberrant behaviour that has brought the legal profession into disrepute may suffice, though I can see him defending that ground to the hilt, which is why I don’t really think that the complaint against him will get up.
Tweet from Ronni Salt:
“From the period 10 March 2020 – 10 March 2021, the law firm giant Minter Ellison were awarded this amount of federal government contracts:
$91,667,105.65¢
That amounts to $251,142.76¢ of your taxes – every day.”
No way could Morrison have watched 4 corners. He might have learnt something. Can’t have that.
Mavis
Thank you. What about the Menadue list of the Porter malfeasances?
If you were able to ask Albo a question what would it be?
Douglas and Milko @ #2091 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 4:27 pm
Wrong on all counts, D & M.
Do you want me to go through the specifics, or are you quite satisfied with just doing a drive-by character assassination rather than engaging in actual debate, as so many people here on PB seem to be?
I don’t mind being wrong, although I do find that when people here claim I am and I ask them for specifics, surprisingly there are few or none ever provided. (I would just say “none”, but I can in fact remember a couple of clangers myself – but I’ll be interested to see if you can come up with any).
But I have to admit I’m not so hot on being called a liar.
For those muttering about how Labor isn’t putting forth any policies, or is pursuing a centrist path, could do worse than check out Joe Biden.
And listen to this fascinating podcast by America’s pre-eminent Progressive data analyst:
https://podcast.thebulwark.com/david-shor-on-why-hispanics-moved-right
BoerWar – but Biden was potentially being wedged by the Bernie crowd, which is where the far Left congregates in US politics, so I’m not so sure your point holds. Of course, Biden was helped by the universal loathing of Trump by pretty much everyone on the Left, but in the US (with low-turn voluntary voting), parties have to appeal to their base, whereas here in Oz compulsory voting requires a more centrist appeal. And yet Biden still run as a moderate and won as a moderate, and now that he is in office, he is enacting a relatively radical program.
Maybe don’t let your own ideological blinkers stop you seeing the reality of what has happened.
Wendy Bacon envisages a fitness proceeding based on any and all things said and done by the AG (even in respect of lecturing content and a consensual relationship) with the belief that his non-assault behaviour may tilt the scales in finding he committed one or more of the crimes the subject of Kate’s allegations.
That sort of elision is unimaginable – it is certainly not an element of the Australian rule of law.
BW
[New Zealand should automatically review all citizens who are jailed in Australia.
It should automatically relieve such prisoners of New Zealand citizenship]
It has Human Rights Act which may say something about that idea.
They’re killing the spirit of Australians.
ELECTION NOW !!!
P1
What I said probably did not come out well, but it is very hard to pin you down an any specifics. All I can get from you is that you want Labor to take an energy and environment policy to the next election that you agree with.
You have said you want a carbon price, so that is at least a start, and you think 60 – 70% of Australians could be sold this, if the marketing is right.
I just do not believe that any party can sell that the the Australian people at this time, and as others said, there are now more electorally palatable ways of reducing our net emissions to zero fairly quickly.
I think you and I will just have to agree to disagree on this.
It would be good if you ever have a chance to talk to people in Western Sydney, in the seats Labor needs to win to form government.
They have little interest in politics, do not trust politicians, and hence will believe that a price on carbon is just another tax grab from their hard-earned pay. They are also very aware that it is well-off, highly educated people like us who are advocating these sorts of policies, and are suspicious that we do not care what happens to them to keep our nice leafy suburbs cool and leafy.
And, the daily telegraph is everywhere. People do not read it, but the front page is a great big billboard for the climate denial. You see it every time you drive past a newsagent or bus stop, and in every cafe and supermarket.
One for Poroti, a fan of this crook’s work
Vogon
Thank you and to repay the favor 🙂
.
Governments need to consider incentives to utilise the talent lost to blogs!
If you want to see ideological blinkers. It’s those that support Bolsanaro and not Lula in Brazil.
The centrists are in panic because this is a return to real power to the left.
Also check out the dummy spit of the Centrist Democrats in Nevada.
After years of community organising the grass roots the Progressive wing of the Democrats won all the offices in Nevada.
The centrist dream was Clinton and we saw what happened.
Edit: Sorry I mean Bill Clinton.
I’m stunned at the arrogance of this, when you give private schools so much money. Does this mean that swim pools and rowing sheds and multiple playing fields don’t actually lift educational standards?
Player One @ #2075 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 1:13 pm
Was not the point of your question, an attempt at deflection?
You say you will accept a Labor policy, but all the evidence suggests that you will reject it like other Labor policies unless it conforms to your position.
In the same regard all the evidence suggests that Labor will pursue climate policy if elected to Government.
You try and cast doubt on Albo’s willingness to act, why would this be so?
Considering the current Government will be placed under increasing international pressure to act, where is the pressure coming from.
Fitzgibbon’s position in the shadow cabinet became untenable because his views were not consistent with Labor’s position on the issue, so I don’t see pressure from within Labor.
The only pressure I see is from certain fringe groups who consider anything less than what they think, is not good enough.
Maybe when an Australian Government actually starts acting on climate change we can begin that debate.
Douglas and Milko @ #2120 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 5:11 pm
I am awlays happy to discuss specifics, but it doesn’t often happen, because too many people here have an agenda, and don’t want to discuss specifics, as today’s discussion highlights yet again.
If you try to argue with the Labor hive mind here, few people actually ever engage in the argument. Most just prefer to tear you to shreds to try and make you go away. However, as should be clear by now, I don’t much care what people think of me, and am fairly passionate about a couple of issues, on which I will continue posting.
If I achieve nothing else here, I can at least point out the hypocrisy of many of the Labor factional warriors here in the PB group-think tank. To quote Dad’s Army: “They don’t like it up ’em!” 🙂
Yes, I think that’s true. And that’s ok by me.
I do better than that, I think. I speak to people in regional Australia – in the only electorate in Australia to switch to Labor at the last election. You might be astonished to hear what these people think about Labor – and more specifically, about Albo – now. And remember, many of these are Labor people.
To keep it brief: People may be disengaged at the moment, but they are not as stupid as you seem to think. I am fairly sure, for instance, that our electorate will go back to Liberal at the next election. Yes, there are specific local issues in this electorate. But don’t let that fool you: Labor has gone backwards, not forwards in many people’s estimation since the election.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/03/07/the-big-issue/comment-page-43/#comment-3571148
Tony Blair was a wet blanket on reform, including in office, Margret Thatcher did not call him her proudest achievement for nothing. The Conservatives would have lost under a less right-wing Labour leader in 1997, they were that unpopular. A Labour leader not as right-wing as Blair would have been had a similar length in power if they had a decent amount of skill and charisma (G. Brown lacked charisma, a major factor in the 2010 election loss). Blair`s Iraq policy was another major reason the 2010 election was lost because it drove many voters from Labour to the LibDems.
Corbyn largely did well as leader until the Scripal Poisoning in early 2018. The swing to Labour between the 2017 local government elections on the 4th of May and the general election on the 8th of June was impressive. Had the election been just a week or two later (after the Grenfell Tower fire on the 14th), Labour would have won. Post-referendum Brexit opposition, which Corbyn was not behind, was a major factor in the size of the defeat in 2019. Corbyn still would likely have lost, his leadership was being eaten away by various matters including the Anti-Semitism problem (which Corbyn`s past associations and missteps (particularly initially) were significant factors).
ItzaDream @ #2969 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 3:57 pm
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2128 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 5:33 pm
More deflection from you. It was quite a simple and relevant question. But one which you clearly don’t want to answer.
I have given you two chances. Now, we are entitled to draw our own conclusions.
Barney
I have my doubts about Labor acting on the climate too. Labor does have a record of trashing the Carbon Price that passed in favour of the carbon price that failed to pass.
It required the LNP to win majority and legislate to destroy the climate policy. That record still haunts the LNP today.
It’s going to haunt them throughout history.
It’s to Labor’s shame they have not made the LNP pay the price for it.
Ever since Labor went to being weak on the environment it has not won a Federal election.
This coming election Labor is going to have to be prepared to be strong on the environment. Their rhetoric has to at least match Kevin Rudd in 07.
That means whatever policy Labor uses has to be credible to voters as strong environmental climate policy. It’s going to be both harder and easier in the new political climate as the LNP moves away from denialist policy.
@MikeCarleton01 tweets
To lose Samantha Armytage and Piers Morgan from television in one week is a heavy blow. If by chance Tucker Carlson goes as well, I will not be able to contain my grief.
Player One @ #2132 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 2:40 pm
William,
I think Boerwar has hacked P1’s account.
Federal Labor should get on the front foot on this: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/11/nsw-to-go-it-alone-on-vehicle-emissions-standard-to-avoid-becoming-dumping-ground
The Coalition will fight the next election / wedge on ‘culture wars’, trying to win the equivalent of Howard’s battlers on the equivalent of what Trump did.
they have nothing else but to play to peoples fear and insecurity
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2135 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 5:47 pm
Clearly not. I haven’t mentioned Xi once … oh, bugger!
guytaur @ #2133 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 2:42 pm
You seem to be confusing a willingness to support Government action however deficient with what they would do themselves if they were the Government.
I can’t see where any pressure is coming from for them not to act.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2139 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 5:52 pm
It is coming from within.
Thanks Poroti,
They haven’t got rid of this Chilla Porter reference – yet.
Player One @ #2140 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 2:56 pm
Really?
Should be an interesting National Conference when they try and change the Party’s position.
‘Hugoaugogo says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 4:55 pm
BoerWar – but Biden was potentially being wedged by the Bernie crowd, which is where the far Left congregates in US politics, so I’m not so sure your point holds.’
There were certainly legitimate policy tensions and there was certainly some skin lost during the primaries. But when push came to shove the Bernie crowd learned their lesson from the time they sank Clinton.
This time it was all stops out to get Biden across the line.
The practical extent of the Australian Greens’ seat aspirations is to knock a few off Labour.
So, IMO, there is a huge structural difference between the US and Oz.
‘Shellbell says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 4:59 pm
BW
[New Zealand should automatically review all citizens who are jailed in Australia.
It should automatically relieve such prisoners of New Zealand citizenship]
It has Human Rights Act which may say something about that idea.’
So, change the Human Rights Act. The object is to give NZ citizens who are jailed in Australia and who are being treated as second class citizens by Australia the right to opt in or opt out, as it suits their circumstances.
‘Shellbell says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 4:56 pm
Wendy Bacon envisages a fitness proceeding based on any and all things said and done by the AG (even in respect of lecturing content and a consensual relationship) with the belief that his non-assault behaviour may tilt the scales in finding he committed one or more of the crimes the subject of Kate’s allegations.
That sort of elision is unimaginable – it is certainly not an element of the Australian rule of law.’
That was my guess. And I had to look up ‘elision’.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #2142 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 6:00 pm
They don’t need to change it. Have you not read the draft policy platform? It reads as if it was written by the Fossil Fuel Elevators themselves. In fact, given how dependent on them Albo is to maintain his fragile leadership, it’s a fair bet that it actually was.
Sure, they will dress it up to sound good in the policy press release, but let’s just say it is very fossil-fuel friendly. Sure, there is a bit of “carbon capture and storage” and “hydrogen superpower” thrown in, but surely anyone with an ounce of intelligence knows what that is code for, don’t we? Don’t we?
‘Vogon Poet says:
Thursday, March 11, 2021 at 5:14 pm
One for Poroti, a fan of this crook’s work
Political Alert
@political_alert
Assistant Treasurer, Michael Sukkar, says the Morrison Government has appointed the Hon Nick Minchin AO as the Independent Reviewer under the Food and Grocery Code for a three-year period #auspol ‘
FMD. His track record in the cigarette cancer ‘choice’ de facto manslaughters bodes ill here. Looks like the sugar poison will be a protected substance for another three years.
Player One @ #2146 Thursday, March 11th, 2021 – 3:13 pm
So, it’s already not good enough, even before it’s been released.
😆 😆 😆
The Left in the 30’s thought that with disarmament people like Hitler would go away.
Rinse and repeat with Xi.
China, meanwhile, has doubled its nuclear weapons capacity since 2020.
Xi gets it. Power grows out of the barrel of a gun and the Left’s peace studies are a laugh a minute.
One thing DOES upset the Left a lot though. Being reminded of their supine silence in the face of ChiCom Xi’s Uigher Genocide.
ABC article “Liberal candidate questions timing of Christian Porter allegation so close to WA election”
Scott Leary, candidate for seat of Albany (held by Labor) tries to link Porter allegation with WA election. Zak Kirkup (unsurprisingly) contradicts him.
Would this be Confessions’ electorate?