Note posts below this on latest developments in the Western Australian campaign and a new state poll from South Australia. In other polling news, we have the latest from a regular series on issue salience and a state poll from Tasmania that I don’t quite feel warrants a post of its own:
• The latest True Issues survey of issue salience from JWS Research records a slight moderation of the coronavirus-driven peculiarities of the mid-year results, in that 42% now rate health among the top three issues (down from 47% in June, but still well up on 24% in February) and 19% do so for environment (up three on last time, but still well down on 26% in February. However, a spike in concern about the economy (steady at 32%, compared with 18% in February) and employment and wages (up two to 30%, compared with 21% in February) has not abated. Nineteen per cent rate the federal government’s response to COVID-19 as very good and 37% as good, but state governments collectively fare better at 29% and 35%. Positive ratings are markedly lower in Victoria for both the federal and state governments. Plenty more detail here from the poll, which was conducted from February 18 to 22 from a sample of 1000.
• The latest quarterly EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania is little changed on the previous result in November, with the incumbent Liberals steady on 52%, Labor up two to 27% and the Greens up one to 14%, with the only complication to a static picture being a four point drop for “others” to 7%. Peter Gutwein’s lead over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier is unchanged at 52-27. The poll was conducted by phone from Monday, February 15 to Tuesday, February 23, from a sample of 1000. Much analysis as always from Kevin Bonham.
Other relevant developments:
• The conventional wisdom that the election would be held in the second half of this year, most likely around September, was disturbed by an Age/Herald report last week that the Prime Minister had “told colleagues to plan for two federal budgets before the Coalition government heads to the polls”.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports Warren Entsch, who has held the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the Liberals and the Liberal National Party outside of a one-term time-out from 2007 to 2010, has gone back on his decision to retire. The 70-year-old announced this term would be his last on the night of the 2019 election, but now feels it “incumbent on me during these uncertain times to continue to support our community and its residents”.
• The Advertiser reports the Prime Minister has told South Australian factional leaders they are expected to preselect a woman to succeed Nicolle Flint in Boothby. This presumably reduces the chances of the position going to state Environment Minister David Speirs, who said last week he was “pondering” a run. The Advertiser suggests the front runners are Rachel Swift, a factional moderate and infectious diseases expert who currently has the unwinnable fourth position on the Senate ticket, and Leah Blyth, a conservative and head of student services at Adelaide University. Another woman mentioned as a possibility by Tom Richardson of InDaily was Marion Themeliotis, Onkaparinga councillor and staffer to state Davenport MP Steve Murray.
Warrigal @ #90 Sunday, March 7th, 2021 – 10:14 am
Slàinte Mhath, Warrigal. I have profound respect for those who do real primary medicine outside the increasingly rationed care of post-Gough public hospitals.
And here is the fact check of the rapist graphic…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2014/12/09/the-truth-about-a-viral-graphic-on-rape-statistics/
The Washington Post gives it 3 Pinnochios
Warrigal:
Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 10:14 am
I wouldn’t take issue with anything you say in your critique. My GP doesn’t bulk-bill anyone, veterans included, and he doesn’t take on new patients. His patients appear well-heeled, most at least in their 60s and above. Whereas I have rellies who are completely contented with going to a bulk-billing practice, and dare I say it, sometimes for reasons they shouldn’t – eg, a minor cut, a low-grade sore throat, and so on.
PVO in his final comment somehow managed to make HIMSELF the victim (it is so hard being a friend etc…)…
No wonder Annabelle’s head nearly exploded!
Mexicanbeemer – if you find it offensive not my problem.
I clearly understand why, that does not make me part of the problem.
Your whataboutism does not work. If you do not believe white middle class men have more power than others in society – you are part of the problem.
My original point is about the powerless not being included in the discussion, you are ignoring that and getting offended by something else. Have a look at the make of National cabinet and the press club reporting it – that was my point.
I believe victims of sexual assault should be heard in many different ways ie I understand with the subject now being the focus of conversation it now raises trauma for those who have experienced it. I work with some who say look at Grace Tame she is strong I am not therefore I do not deserve help. She deserves listening to, this trauma is real.
One of the things I do find amazing is that services who work with victims actually advocate for programs that work with perpetrators (even after listening to victims stories). They see the need for change and that those who suffer trauma can often continue it. These conversations need to happen instead of being kicked down the road or getting offended about facts being stated.
It is to easy to change the subject. Watch the Coalition there will lots of other topics raised now as they will want to move on.
Morning all. Haven’t seen Insiders, but from comments here it doesn’t sound much chop. Disappointing that PvO appears to be letting his supposed friendship with Porter cloud his better thinking.
Has the PM announced an inquiry yet into the Porter matter? It feels like the longer this goes on, the larger the stain on the AG and the govt. Then again, the experience of Brett Kavanaugh in the US shows that you can just tough these things out and eventually they go away. I’m sure Morrison and Porter and playing for this rather than transparency and accountability.
My impression of PVOs performance is that at a personal level he cannot admit that a close friend of his has been accused of rape. So he desperately needs to diminish the allegation and the person who made it. That is why he can’t let go of it. His performance on Insiders is for his own psychological comfort, not Porter’s.
I think it was a big mistake by PVO to go on Insiders. He is damaging his credibility in my view. He sounds like a young Alan Jones using longer words.
Can anyone get over the paywall to find out what this horror story is about ?
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Abbott in line for billionaire’s top job
Former prime minister Tony Abbott could take over one of Australia’s most prestigious roles in our history.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/tony-abbott-is-a-possible-contender-to-replace-kerry-stokes-at-australian-war-memorial/news-story/273f6b10516bd7f82eee9efdc7ab98cc
Edit: Damn, the link address let the cat out of the bag 😆
Scout
I stopped reading after the first two lines because I am offended by your attitude.
Taylormade
I wish you many nuggets!
Mavis, no issue with you intended whatsoever, and free-at-point of care does lead to overuse for trivial matters.
It’s surprising, though, how often a trivial matter is accompanied by opportunistic clinical care of a more serious or preventative nature, or at least it should be if you’re doing the job in front of you. There are also some silly bureaucratic wrinkles which force people to attend more often than they would otherwise. It sounds like you are very happy with your doc and getting consistent long term care from someone who knows you well, which tends to predict better outcomes at any price. All the very best.
Player One:
Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 10:25 am
[‘You’ll probably have to. It seems the vaccination must be bulk billed. So a GP that can make $250 a visit wouldn’t be interested.’]
I would add that the $250 fee is for a long consultation. I normally get in and out in quick time.
I think I have this right: Morrison insists that unless Porter is convicted of a criminal offence, there can be no objection to his remaining as the Attorney-General. But he has removed several other ministers for less. Annabel Crabb correctly states that the positions are entirely at the discretion of the PM.
Mexicanbeemer – that is funny!
Enjoy your day, hope you are able to read with out getting offended.
I’ve been helping on the early voting booth the past couple days, handing out HTV cards. Someone said WA’s election is the country’s first COVID election, although I’m not sure about that.
What I can say from past experience is that we’ve been slammed with early voters. I’ve not seen anything like this before, and veteran HTVers from past elections have said the same. Whether it’s just the trend towards early voting, concerns about COVID or a combination of the two, I’m not sure. But if what I’ve seen is replicated elsewhere in the state then the numbers for early voting should be significantly up on previous elections.
Oakeshott country @ #102 Sunday, March 7th, 2021 – 10:00 am
2014. Too old and too narrow to be relying on their pinnochios.
Snopes in 2018 say;
The rate that Rolling Stone quotes (10%) is within that range. WP (%40) – not so much.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/rape-allegations-fabricated/
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 8:53 am
“What work do you do C@t that you have not had a pay increase in 8 years?”
……….
All of them (including the one you work in) and it has been happening year on year since at least 2014:
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-does-australia-end-wage-stagnation-20190408-p51byj
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/02/21/pascoe-wage-price-index/
https://theconversation.com/theres-an-obvious-reason-wages-arent-growing-but-you-wont-hear-it-from-treasury-or-the-reserve-bank-122041
Scout
Are you really telling us that if we were ruled by black men then the problems would not exist and you would refer to their skin color?
PvO’s closing comments had nothing to do with skin color.
Arthur
And every fecking year we are told that the projections are for ‘strong wage growth’ within about 18 months.
‘Confessions says:
Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 10:38 am
Morning all. Haven’t seen Insiders, but from comments here it doesn’t sound much chop. ‘
I did not intend to convey that. It was one of the best ever, IMO.
poroti @ #120 Sunday, March 7th, 2021 – 10:54 am
“The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day.” – Lewis Carroll
I agree that Insiders is really well worth watching.
Thanks boerwar and Itza. I was going to watch it later as the panel looked like a much better panel than previous weeks.
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 10:09 am
Boerwar
It has nothing to do with believing the Morrison government was going to enact recommendations because governments don’t implement every recommendation put to them and Morrison has a poor record at doing anything but government workflows have been impacted by covid.’
Morrison desperately wanted to give priority to implementing the 55 recommendations but shoveling money to his mates had No 1 priority. So did making workers even more vulnerable through IR reform. So did gutting the EPBC Act. Keep your keg of koolaid handy.
lizzie @ #114 Sunday, March 7th, 2021 – 10:45 am
That was the advice from the Attorney-General.
Boerwar
That pretty much sums up Morrison and the Liberals since 2013 because i can’t remember the last time they did something that wasn’t about pleasing the ipa or Murdoch.
I’d say in the private sector virtually no one I know in professional jobs in healthcare has had a wage rise in 5-10 years (as I said the flat casual rate for me has dropped to 1998 levels)….many factors including new graduates, 457s, the endless medicare rebate freezes, new technology allows employing lower skilled staff, etc…
The Coalition support *having* aspirations, it’s just that they do everything they can to make it difficult to *fulfill* them (for the majority of people).
Mexicabeemer – if you do not believe a white male such as PVO has more power and is therefore able to make those comments you are part of the problem.
Tad defensive. You have succeeded making the comment about the need for victims being able to have their voice heard about white males being the victim – well done you should be pleased with yourself.
poroti @ #108 Sunday, March 7th, 2021 – 10:40 am
For he’s a jolly good fellow – and so say all of us ❗
‘…conservative Christian activists are attempting to grow their numbers and influence within the Coalition, and believe opposition to transgender rights will be key to their political success.’
‘…society would not be so concerned about climate change or gender identity if we were at war with China.’
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-our-turn-inside-the-christian-right-conference-plotting-a-political-takeover-20210303-p577fv.html?btis
Those ‘Islamos’ are a versatile bunch. After 9/11 the West crusaded off to battle the eeeevil ‘Islamofascism’ . Today in France it is Come on Down …. Islamo-gauchisme – or “Islamo-leftism” .
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France: What is the ‘Islamo-leftism’ debate really about?
On 14 February, Frederique Vidal, the higher education minister, announced on right-wing channel CNews that “Islamo-leftism is corrupting society in its entirety and universities are not immune”.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/france-islam-leftism-macron-muslims-academia-elections
Scout
You are missing the point because PvO power does not come from his skin color but from the circles he spends time in thanks to his educational background and career.
Those or similar power structures exist in all societies regardless of skin color and that is why you cannot answer the question about if Australia was run by black men would the problem exist and would you refer to their skin color. The fact is Australia has a majority white population and if you want to make this about skin color you risk losing the support of that majority of the population not a smart strategy when the real issue is the system not skin color.
Speirs would be a tough candidate to beat in Boothby. In his state environment portfolio he is a ‘say the right things, sounds nice and reasonable’ chap who is incredibly consistent at either doing nothing about the issues he sounds so passionate and concerned about, or doing things that actually make the problems worse. He would fit right into the Federal LNP.
Zerlo
How are rape allegations handled in China and how would they be handled if someone close to the president was alleged to have committed rape?
Barney
From your time in Asia how do Asian countries handle these crimes?
When it comes to worker’s pay, the Coalition always talk about it as zero sum. Other people (e.g. foreigners) can take your job. You need to accept less so that other people can be employed. You need to think of each other. If you ask for too much you could be preventing someone else from being employed. When it comes to profits, there are no such limitations. If you try to discuss the balance between work conditions and profits, that’s jealousy and you’re shut down.
In doing so they make a virtue out of competition between employee and employee, and a sin out of competition between employee and employer.
PvO is in a league of his own when it comes to deserved criticism of our rotten parliamentarians by the CPG – and I say that as positive comment.
But on this occasion re Porter, he is conflicted.
All he needs to say is that he supports an independent inquiry (which he does) and leave it at that by withdrawing from the rest of the conversation due to his conflict.
Mexicanbeemer – I am not ‘missing the point’, I disagree with yours. That is ok though.
The conversation as I repeatedly stated should not be about white males in Australia who obviously have more power, but about the victims of sexual assault not having a voice.
If you want to be defensive and offended that is your right go for it, I would rather make the point that as PVO and Porter have more power than the victims.
You swing it around to make white males the victim that is sad. If you can not acknowledge that white males have more power than others that is fine if that stops you and others reading and listening to the victims of sexual assault that says more about you and them.
Your whataboutism does not work , if you think white males have the right to get offended with what I said move on and stop getting offended. It is hypocritical when anyone calling out racism is told to get over it.
Again that is a distraction from the real people who should be the focus of discussion – victims of sexual abuse. But you would not read about that as you are offended.
KayJay
Ta muchly. Hanging around the war museum would be the perfect creche/retirement home for Tones.
Scout
The conversation as I repeatedly stated should not be about white males in Australia who obviously have more power, but about the victims of sexual assault not having a voice.
—————————————-
That is my point.
I am saying skin color has f-all to do with it.
Insiders was a lot more interesting than last week, which was little more than a rolled gold effort to bury it all. “Sky news after dawn” must of hurt.
PVO is worried about the lives ruined by false accusation, no concern for the lives ruined by violence.
If the accusation is so thin, why no inquiry? When it comes to rape, victim shaming is part of the deal, part of the problem. PVO’s efforts look like more of the same, but he did come back to the same conclusion, why no inquiry?
You would hope the voters of Australia have set of standards that has them reject Morrisons standard that it’s ok to have a person with untested allegations of rape levelled against him to be fit and proper to continue as Australia’s first legal officer.
With each day that passes, I find Morrison to be more and more the antithesis of what our PM should be.
Low marks for the 24k gold standard with the Ghunt hallmark on it.
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Hazzard wants to junk federal COVID-19 vaccine rollout
https://www.smh.com.au/national/frustrated-gps-threaten-to-pull-out-of-covid-19-vaccination-program-20210305-p5783s.html
mexicanbeemer – well stop getting offended by it and move on.
Argue for the victims to be heard instead of PVO and Porter who have more power than them.
You make my point so well.
If you are a victim hearing PVO or others banging on it does not give them confidence to speak out. To be honest calling out power imbalance is part of it and needs to be acknowledged.
Scout
I bet you wouldn’t say that to a women offended by sexism or a black person offended by racism or a gay person offended by homophobia or a person in a wheelchair being offended because they cannot access a building because of stairs.
poroti @ #144 Sunday, March 7th, 2021 – 11:35 am
Australians are just sick and tired of this incompetent corrupt Govt that goes from disaster to disaster and scandal to scandal.
It’s the worst Govt in our history, no doubt. It’s sullies us all.
Morrison should do the right thing and visit the Governor General.
porotisays:
Sunday, March 7, 2021 at 10:54 am
“And every fecking year we are told that the projections are for ‘strong wage growth’ within about 18 months.”
………
Lots of people, who can’t figure out why it gets harder and harder to pay the rent, will insist that wages ARE growing.
“ With each day that passes, I find Morrison to be more and more the antithesis of what our PM should be”
I made that call 20 months ago.
“ Morrison should do the right thing and …”
That’s your problem right there. Having any expectations that Morrison would ever to the right thing.