The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll does not include leader ratings or voting intention, but does have the following:
• The regular question on COVID-19 response finds the federal government’s good rating suffering a seven point dip to 62%, returning it to where it was for several months before an uptick in November, with the poor rating up two to 14%. The small sample results for mainland state governments also record a drop for the Victorian government, whose good rating is down ten to 49%, while the New South Wales government holds steady at 72% and the Queensland government’s drops three to 73%. As ever, particular caution must be taken with the Western Australian and South Australian results given the sample sizes, but they respectively retain the best (down three to 85%) and second best (down one to 78%) results out of the five.
• The poll finds 50% of respondents saying they will get vaccinated as soon as possible, 40% that they will do so but not straight away, and 10% that they will never get vaccinated. Variation by voting intention is within the margin of error. By way of contrast, a US poll conducted by Monmouth University last month produced the same 50% result for the “soon as possible option”, but had “likely will never get the vaccine” markedly higher at 24%. This increased to 42% among Republicans, and doesn’t that just say it all.
• The poll includes a pared back version of the pollster’s semi-regular suite of questions on leaders’ attributes in relation to Scott Morrison, but not Anthony Albanese. The consistent pattern here is that Morrison is a bit less highly rated than he was last May, but substantially stronger than he was during the bushfire crisis in January. However, he has done notably better on “good in a crisis” (from 32% last January to 66% in May to the current 59%) than “out of touch” (from 62% to 47% and now back up to 59%), whereas his gains since January on “more honest than most politicians” (now 50%), “trustworthy” (52%) and “visionary” (41%) are all either 11% or 12%. Two new questions have been thrown into the mix: “in control of their team” and “avoids responsibility”, respectively 56% at 49%.
• Respondents were asked to respond to a series of propositions concerning “the recent allegations of rape and sexual assault from women working in Parliament”, which found 65% agreeing the government has been “more interested in protecting itself than the interests of those who have been assaulted”. Forty-five per cent felt there was “no difference in the way the different political parties treat women”, though the view was notably more prevalent among men (54%) than women (37%), and among those at the conservative end of the voting spectrum (53% among Coalition voters, 41% among Labor voters and 30% among Greens voters).
• A number of questions on tech companies found an appetite for stronger regulation, including 76% support for forcing them to remove misinformation from their platforms.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1074; full results here.
William Bowe says:
Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 3:12 pm
Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.
How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?
Don’t know, but clearly when you conclude over 90% of claims are vindictively made sexual assault allegations against men, something is wrong.
William Bowe:
Almost all such spurious accusations involve parties known to each other, the main exception being accusations based on racism.
Bushfire Bill’s most recent asininity suggested that it was reasonable to expect “EYE witnesses” [his emphasis] to alleged sexual assaults and rapes in which the alleged perpetrator was known to the alleged victim.
My suspicion is that the likelihood of eye witnesses in such cases is approximately zero, and that the police therefore do not have this as their standard, even de facto. Alternatively they might do, in which case the standard is untenable.
Either way, the Police would be (and are) wise to focus their limited resources where they are most useful, which is investigating legitimate claims of rape and isn’t in saving poor defenseless men from a scourging posse of man-hating feminazis wielding spurious subpoenas to vicious effect.
Outside of American politics and intra-party politics more widely (where in both cases it seems anything goes), spurious accusations of the rape are rather rare and almost wholly confined to:
– racist accusations;
– situations involving marriage / relationship breakdown, and
– accusations against recidivist dickheads who have previously mistreated essentially all women with whom they have had relationships
It is is relatively easy for the police to identify these cases, though there is the complication that the relationship between being a dickhead and being a rapist is asymmetric (rapists are almost always dickheads, but most dickheads aren’t actually rapists*)
In particular, don’t be both a politician and a dickhead. The sexual predation accusations against Mr Biden unravelled quickly because it emerged that a whole lot of women from his neighbourhood (hence knew him) and of similar age to him (hence not idiots attracted to power) really like the guy (as in, would marry him if he were available). This provided a comprehensive demonstration that he was not a dickhead and the allegations consequently evaporated.
* As an aside, instead of saying “all men are rapists” it is far more accurate to say all men are dickheads (at least some of the time). This goes back to woolly mammoths—only someone who is a bit of a dickhead to take the risk—and it turns out the dickheads chasing mammoths benefited their tribe! But that was a past time, and now we need the “no dickheads” rule, which has universally been a success wherever it has recently been tried.
Has there been any information released of HOW the poor soul sadly took her own life ??? …..
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 3:51 pm
Akon @ #2279 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:35 pm
William Bowesays:
Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 3:12 pm
Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.
How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?
______________________
I think we know that if allegations are made against a Labor figure then C@tmomma believes they fall into this category.
What a spiteful thing to say. You’ve only been around for 5 minutes and already you are feeling your oats and lining up to take a swipe at me. Bravo!
_______________________
Well you did describe Luke Foley’s transgression as being a hand on the ‘lower back’.
Michael Salter
@mike_salter
·
1h
I think one of the reasons that the “recovered memory” trope is so popular with some journalists is that it simplifies very complex circumstances. Our legal systems were not established to adjudicate delayed allegations of sexual violence, although delays are common.
Michael Salter
@mike_salter
Scientia Associate Professor of Criminology
@UNSW
. Director
@ISSTD
. Advisor
@eSafetyOffice
@CdnChildProtect
. Trauma, technology & https://organisedabuse.com
Sydney, New South Walesunsw.academia.edu/MichaelSalterJoined September 2012
There is a long & rational thread in there worth reading.
shellbell @ #2365 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 2:17 pm
Are you saying the NSW police dont close ranks, instead are quick to admit possible flaws, and are transparent and open with the public about it?
How long did it take them to admit (were told by the LECC) they were illegally searching girls at festivals? And then…. no findings of misconduct?
I know they have improved light years on how they handle sexual assault cases. That doesnt mean mistakes arent still being made or further improvement warranted.
Just a change from the ongoing battle about what did or didn’t happen (I’m in the “there are so many questions and so few answers brigade”)
I have started watching a series of yankee propaganda films from WW2 on Netflix in the “5 came back” series.
I’ve only watched the first 3 with the first being particularly disturbing and stomache churning (WARNING!! if you can and choose to watch this particular one, I don’t have the words to describe how it made me feel)
The big surprise for me was how Soviet Russia was treated in episode 2 by the US propaganda machine compared to how things developed immediately following WW2 and how things continue to this day.
A_E
Add to that the Oz Rock cafe color scheme + logo was, not accidentally, pretty similar to Hard Rock cafe
.
Sceptic @ #2405 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:13 pm
I am shocked that simple minded journalists would attempt to simplify complex issue.
GG
They have had long time to perfect their act
Simon Katich @ #2406 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:15 pm
You can make as many changes to process as you like, unless their is an attitudinal change across the board, then injustices will continue to occur.
Sceptic @ #2410 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:19 pm
If you are not part of the solution, you are a part of the problem.
In arguably the greatest scandal of the 20th century, John Profumo, Secretary of State for War, was forced to resign for having an extra-marital affair with Christine Keeler, which also brought down the McMillan Government. His sin was that Keeler was also having it off Soviet Naval
Attache Ivanov – pillow talk. There was no question of rape or anything else; it was a case of breaching security.
Profumo accepted his lot, devoting the rest of his life
to charity, earning the respect of most, even earning a gong from the Queen. Perhaps in his contemplative moments on leave, Porter, whose reputation on any criteria is in tatters, should consider Profumo’s example. I certainly can’t see him rejoining the Cabinet.
Akon @ #2293 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:11 pm
Because that’s all I thought it was! Hang me now for not remembering correctly! I didn’t make the mistake out of malice aforethought, that’s for sure. Excuse me for not knowing the minutiae of every situation ever wrt a politician.
Though, being a Greens supporter, you probably won’t believe me. And that’s an indictment of you, quite frankly.
“ You can make as many changes to process as you like, unless their is an attitudinal change across the board, then injustices will continue to occur.”
NSW Police may, or may not, have been dragging the chain with the Porter investigation because it was a political hot potato. We don’t know unless we have a complete chronology of the complainant’s communications with them. If she was under extra stress with covid and wanted to make a statement face to face as opposed to the somewhat impersonal use of email, telephone calls and even an AVL conference, then I am sure that SA police could have assisted. If she was in two minds about proceeding throughout the time that nsw police had an open strike force then it would be understandable if investigators hastened slowly. Having dealt with nsw police now in various capacities for 20 years, it could be either scenario, IMO.
William Bowesays:
Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 3:12 pm
“How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?”
………
Quite simple apparently, they just have to ask nicely.
Were there any witnesses?
Did he use a condom?
Did you happen to keep the condom for three decades?
Are you making shit up?
Mavis @ #2413 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:25 pm
The dude sacked for allegedly raping Higgins was sacked for a security breach, apparently.
I had it in my mind that rape was no longer called that in some states, but I found these definitions
Victorian Legal Aid
justice.nsw.gov.au
I agree. Fear of police action is not the main reason people dont commit crimes. They dont commit crimes because they dont want to. Where does that change come from? Certainly not from leadership from Morrison. I dont see it coming from an investigation into Porter.
I have been posting support for a wide ranging inquiry into this. Perhaps a RC. But I am at a loss GG. I dont understand where this is coming from. As a youngster I belonged to friendship groups and sporting clubs and teams where respect for women was ingrained. It wasnt talked about. It wasnt worked on. It was just there.
Ms C@t, you make so many erudite comment’s on here on various subjects, as many other people do on so many and varied subjects it makes my head swim at times but, there are people that know they can get a rise out of you and others and all they have to do is hit the “right” button and it’s “come in spinner”.
You don’t have to answer all these things that press the “button” no matter what they throw at you and how it makes you arc up because, when you do, they win. They’ve got the result they want.
I don’t know who said it originally but “never argue with an idiot. All that happens is they drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience” or words to that effect.
Be good and if you can’t be careful.
Mavis
Profumo sprang immediately to my mind in the Porter case. Profumo is an example of a standard of behaviour now lost to us.
Bert @ #2420 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:38 pm
I like cat just the way she are. More power to her arm.
Simon K
I’ve been trying to put into words the culture changes that have occurred, and I just can’t.
Much appreciated, Bert and Greensborough Growler. *InternetHug* to you both.
I Yam What I Yam. What can I do? 🙂
Though, to your point, Bert, I reply because I wouldn’t want people to think that I’m not replying because I have slunk off, having been caught out.
Simon Katichsays: Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 4:36 pm
As a youngster I belonged to friendship groups and sporting clubs and teams where respect for women was ingrained. It wasnt talked about. It wasnt worked on. It was just there.
************************************
So obviously your group was not a fan of the ‘swinging dicks’ fan club that operates in Canberra
Former Liberal minister attacks ‘secret men’s business’ after cabinet minister accused of historical rape
Sharman Stone says male MPs referred to themselves as the ‘swinging dicks’ and blocked Julie Bishop’s leadership aspirations
“It was a very gendered thing obviously when you call yourself that, and you’re all men in the group,” she said. Guardian Australia has contacted Bishop for comment.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/27/former-liberal-minister-attacks-secret-mens-business-after-cabinet-minister-accused-of-historical
Two relevant books.
Greensborough Growler:
Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 4:27 pm
[‘The dude sacked for allegedly raping Higgins was sacked for a security breach, apparently.’]
Yes, I did read that he didn’t have the authority to enter Reynold’s office after hours. But it did seem to be a convenient way of getting him away from the place, maybe in the hope that V2 would have been satisfied with his removal. That didn’t work out too well, though.
If you accept the very top figure from research that finds 2-10% of rape claims are false then it appears to me the system should be shaped to deal with the 90%, especially given that it is estimated only 35% of sexual assaults are reported at all.
lizzie:
Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 4:38 pm
[‘Profumo sprang immediately to my mind in the Porter case. Profumo is an example of a standard of behaviour now lost to us.’]
Two great minds thinking alike?
C@tmommasays:
Because that’s all I thought it was! Hang me now for not remembering correctly! I didn’t make the mistake out of malice aforethought, that’s for sure. Excuse me for not knowing the minutiae of every situation ever wrt a politician.
Though, being a Greens supporter, you probably won’t believe me. And that’s an indictment of you, quite frankly.
________________
Ok fair enough. Not sure why you badge me as a Greens supporter. I’ve said nothing in support of the Greens.
You’ve got to wonder what Brittany Higgins is going through right now. What a tumultuous few weeks for her. I hope she’s okay.
Perhaps importantly, the main sporting club I played in had as many women participants as men. We toured together. Maybe the increase in female participation in sport (and politics in political parties where is has started to take hold) will help.
Mavis @ #2427 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:46 pm
Seems like a straight forward process to me.
Unless you’ve got evidence to the contrary.
Akon @ #2319 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:49 pm
Okay, fair enough. Though why make the nasty comment that if it was a Labor MP I would support them to the hilt? I guess it’s just me you don’t like personally.
Though I will add, in my defense, that at the time of the Luke Foley matter I did not support him.
SK
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the party with the poorest representation of women is having these problems.
My second stint at council, one of the newly elected councillors was a Liberal party mover and shaker. He assumed he was going to be Mayor, despite a woman being top of our ticket, having the highest personal vote and the longest experience in council.
Just because, as far as I could make out at the time.
(He was a Rising Star – I still think my little dabble in politics was worthwhile, if nothing else because I made sure the star set rather more quickly than he expected….)
SK
[Are you saying the NSW police dont close ranks, instead are quick to admit possible flaws, and are transparent and open with the public about it?]
No. I sue them for a living.
I am dealing with the specifics here wherein the police have explained their actions including receiving a thank you email from the victim. Any criticism of their behaviour has to take into account that explanation.
Simon Katich says:
Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 4:50 pm
Perhaps importantly, the main sporting club I played in had as many women participants as men. We toured together. Maybe the increase in female participation in sport (and politics in political parties where is has started to take hold) will help.
—————————–
More women might improve things but it could also give a false sense of security because sexual harassment has happened in women dominated workplaces or where there are a number of women in senior roles and HR has been dominated by women for years but these things still happen in the workplace and when it comes to politics the Liberals used to have male and women office holders so the Liberals have no excuse for their women problem.
Shellbell @ #2436 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 5:00 pm
So, is the whole legal system actually a Ponzi Scheme for participants?
Well, it was a male only team (in a mixed gender club) and there was plenty of testosterone (for want of a better word). Quite a few swinging dicks – I seem to recall some competitions. But… there is nothing manly about sexual assault.
I wasnt aware of that. Yet your comment was that we should ignore a journalist quoting an anonymous source. Even whilst that was second hand, these sources have a role wrt groups with a history of lacking in transparency and self examination. We may be too quick to second guess the police – but they have themselves to blame for that.
NSW certainly used to have (may still do) a specialist child sexual assault jurisdiction.
Here is the result of a study into its work:
https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Publications/Legislative/l18.pdf
C@tmomma @ #2424 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 4:44 pm
Anybody that thought you had “slunk off” would be an absolute mug and if they believed that I have a perfectly sound bridge to sell them…..
Can anyone imagine taking a sexual assault claim to Peter Dutton in the Qld police force? He represents the not-so-far-back tradition.
Sceptic:
The legal system is fundamentally misaligned with the real world – the world in which it operates, and thus unfit for purpose, and increasingly so. In maintaining this situation, legal professionals are almost unique (the other exception is is the economists, who appear to be liars and not merely fools as Wiener over generously concluded)
Every other professional-even (amazingly) the bloody surgeons–is now trained to avoid “jumping to conclusions”. The reason for this revolution in reason is that it is known–Principle of Maximal/Maximum Entropy*–that the model which best represents what is known is the model having max. entropy – the model that embeds the minimum of assumptions (consistent with the testable data) in respect of the truth of the matter. The max entropy model is the least biased model possible given the available data, and (it is reasonably assumed) the one for which one should aim.
Lawyers on the other hand are trained so as artificially to curtail entropy. So advocates will say (often loudly) “baseless” when the accurate term is “inaccurate”, and will say “cease and desist” rather than the now more communicative “stop” (and in this case do so perversely without knowledge of the historical reason).
This in not merely the advocate attempting to impress himself through pomposity, nor to intimidate and thus suppress opposing arguments; instead it is a fundamental flaw in the adversarial approach: the adversarial approach artificially reduces entropy and as such is generally inconsistent with the foundations of the real world.
In the past, it could well be argued on grounds of computability that the adversarial approach was the best one could do. This computational constraint is either no longer valid or will shortly cease to be so.
* Jaynes, E. T., 1957, `Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics,’ Phys. Rev., 106, 620
SK
[Yet your comment was that we should ignore a journalist quoting an anonymous source.]
Yes because that is a reasonable response when I have something direct from the police. No one has to accept what is written by the police but treating it as though it does not exist (not you) ain’t much of an argument.
Lizzie:
Is one permitted the use of a telephone book? or otherwise to phone a friend?
The wisdom of Greg Sheridan 😆
I’m curious to see how the Higgins and Porter matters affect the Lib vote in the WA election. WA voters will be widely and deeply repelled by the disclosures. Will this be expressed at the ballot box? The Liberal vote was already at the point of collapse. Will it subside into the low 30s or less? Will they be obliterated?
And if the Liberal vote in the State election is particularly feeble, will this affect the balance of expectations and thinking about the political leadership in Canberra? Will Morrison face a reckoning? He has shown he’s without any moral or emotional content. He’s just a suit, a tie and a Bunnings account.
I can’t think of another political leader who’s shown themselves to be so emotionally absent -so out of touch – as Morrison. Abbott was bad. But Morrison is absolutely unresponsive on these matters. There is a wasteland in the capital, and it is located where Morrison’s sense of responsibility and leadership should be situated.
If things start to unravel for Morrison then he will know the troubles spring from within his own party. This must bide very ill for him. Who is gunning for Morrison?
Will the Liberal Party unravel?
Micheal West explains why CP should not be the AG.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyk5ri8mU90
Lizzie
Greg is absolutely spot on except its not that women are trending left and men are trending right but the regressive reactionaries have turned virtually everything non-economic issue into a lefty issue. The Liberals are hollowing out their own base for the dream that out there somewhere is an American style Trumpian base. The Liberals are so far gone that some of them don’t care if they lose Wentworth and Kooyong.