Essential Research: COVID-19, leader attributes and more

A new poll finds a dip in the federal government’s still strong ratings on COVID-19, with only a small minority of respondents planning to skip the vaccine.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll does not include leader ratings or voting intention, but does have the following:

• The regular question on COVID-19 response finds the federal government’s good rating suffering a seven point dip to 62%, returning it to where it was for several months before an uptick in November, with the poor rating up two to 14%. The small sample results for mainland state governments also record a drop for the Victorian government, whose good rating is down ten to 49%, while the New South Wales government holds steady at 72% and the Queensland government’s drops three to 73%. As ever, particular caution must be taken with the Western Australian and South Australian results given the sample sizes, but they respectively retain the best (down three to 85%) and second best (down one to 78%) results out of the five.

• The poll finds 50% of respondents saying they will get vaccinated as soon as possible, 40% that they will do so but not straight away, and 10% that they will never get vaccinated. Variation by voting intention is within the margin of error. By way of contrast, a US poll conducted by Monmouth University last month produced the same 50% result for the “soon as possible option”, but had “likely will never get the vaccine” markedly higher at 24%. This increased to 42% among Republicans, and doesn’t that just say it all.

• The poll includes a pared back version of the pollster’s semi-regular suite of questions on leaders’ attributes in relation to Scott Morrison, but not Anthony Albanese. The consistent pattern here is that Morrison is a bit less highly rated than he was last May, but substantially stronger than he was during the bushfire crisis in January. However, he has done notably better on “good in a crisis” (from 32% last January to 66% in May to the current 59%) than “out of touch” (from 62% to 47% and now back up to 59%), whereas his gains since January on “more honest than most politicians” (now 50%), “trustworthy” (52%) and “visionary” (41%) are all either 11% or 12%. Two new questions have been thrown into the mix: “in control of their team” and “avoids responsibility”, respectively 56% at 49%.

• Respondents were asked to respond to a series of propositions concerning “the recent allegations of rape and sexual assault from women working in Parliament”, which found 65% agreeing the government has been “more interested in protecting itself than the interests of those who have been assaulted”. Forty-five per cent felt there was “no difference in the way the different political parties treat women”, though the view was notably more prevalent among men (54%) than women (37%), and among those at the conservative end of the voting spectrum (53% among Coalition voters, 41% among Labor voters and 30% among Greens voters).

• A number of questions on tech companies found an appetite for stronger regulation, including 76% support for forcing them to remove misinformation from their platforms.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1074; full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,565 comments on “Essential Research: COVID-19, leader attributes and more”

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  1. Susie Dent
    @susie_dent

    Word of the day is ‘snoutband’ (19th century): someone who consistently interrupts a conversation in order to contradict or correct the speaker.

  2. Tomsays:
    Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 2:05 pm

    “Would not happen in modern times. People wouldn’t just stand around – they would have got there mobiles out and filmed it. Such are sheople today.”

    ……..

    I was really trying to point out ridiculous nature of the question being posed.

  3. I suspect Murdoch’s SmearStralian has delivered its verdict on Christian Porter – and unleashed the platoon of ‘diverse’ men to put the complainers back in their box…

    You forgot the picture of Jamie Walker who questions the woman’s recollections. Jamie is an editor at The Australian and a black woman….

  4. Some people just do not want male rape culture to be stamped out.

    Yabba @ #2203 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 1:09 pm

    A firmer NSW detective has contacted me and says his former colleagues simply dropped the ball. To get a statement from the interstate complainant it was common to ask interstate cops to do it for them.Is it a coincidence that NSW has a Liberal government?— Paul Bongiorno (@PaulBongiorno) March 4, 2021

    I think a better way to characterise it is to say they dropped it like a hot potato.

  5. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 1:12 pm

    “Put yourself in the position of a police investigator.

    Q. Were there any witnesses to the alleged violation?”

    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

  6. Roaldan, Lynchpin

    Thanks for some very thoughtful responses. As a man I can’t pretend to know what rape and sexual harassment feel like. It is self evident they are too common in our society, and it seems even more common in our politics.

    I hope the March 4 Justice goes well on 15 March.

  7. To wit The Australian Opinion page, wither Caroline Overington, Janet Albrechtsen, Jennifer Oriel or Catriona Grace Kelly (or whatever cockamamie name she is going by this week)?

    Not even prepared to write in support OR against the victim or alleged perpetrator?

  8. The criticism of the New South Wales police is baseless. Some anonymous source from Paul” I write for my audience’s pleasure” Bongiorno should be ignored.

    I’ll get the name of the head of the sexual assault task force within the New South Wales police and you or Paul can write to her.

  9. Emma Degotardi
    @emmadegotardi

    PVO’s change of tune between the rape allegations from Brittany Higgins to the rape allegations against Christian Porter are proof positive that men do believe women. But only when the one doing the alleged raping isn’t one of their own.

  10. This must have been posted already.. surely a classic

    Canberra’s pale, stale and male tribe is missing the moment – as it did with Julia Gillard’s misogyny speech
    Katharine Murphy

  11. I suspect Murdoch’s SmearStralian has delivered its verdict on Christian Porter
    I suspect for no other reason than supporting the values of its owner… he always looked like the caring human being that respected women … including his wives , all 4 off them

  12. Shellbell thinks that the appropriate person to talk to about the utter failure of the police/courts system, of which he is a part, to deal with our long term and ongoing sexual assault epidemic, (while achieving a reporting rate of about 10% and a conviction rate of less than 7% of those actually charged), is the person in charge of the police arm of the ineffective, unfit-for-purpose system.

    That leader’s opinion on the actions of the police who work for him is clearly unbiased and definitive, isn’t it, Shellbell?

  13. Does PvO have a personal, as distinct from a professional, relationship with the AG? I seem to recall a suggestion to that effect somewhere but could be mistaken. If, however, he does, then will David Speers require him to disclose that on tomorrow’s program should the discussion get around to some of the events of the past week?

  14. Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?

  15. Here we are:

    Stacey Maloney, detective superintendent and commander of the NSW police sex crimes squad.

    Send her a note Yabba.

  16. Bennelong Lurker @ #2373 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:09 pm

    Does PvO have a personal, as distinct from a professional, relationship with the AG? I seem to recall a suggestion to that effect somewhere but could be mistaken. If, however, he does, then will David Speers require him to disclose that on tomorrow’s program should the discussion get around to some of the events of the past week?

    I read earlier that PVO and Porter were colleagues at UWA.

  17. William Bowe @ #2264 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:12 pm

    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?

    That’s their job, not mine.

  18. Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51

    The understandable confusion after 30 years between the Hard Rock Cafe and the Oz Rock Cafe can’t be used to discredit the woman’s overall claims. Only fools and the deliberately malicious would…Hey, wadda ya know…

    {link to Andrew Bolt’s article in The Herald Sun.}

  19. shellbell

    Why do any of us have to send anyone a note?

    A system where most sexual assaults are not reported, where there’s a high attrition rate amongst reported cases, and where the conviction rate for those which do go through the process is incredibly low is obviously broken.

    Let’s look at how it can be fixed rather than defending it on the basis – apparently – that those involved are doing the best they can.

    As I’ve repeatedly said, in the past it’s been recognised that the legal system wasn’t coping with certain issues, and the legal system was altered as a result.

    Our divorce laws were altered because it was obvious that having to find one party at fault wasn’t working; the Family Court was set up because it was obvious that adversarial systems didn’t result in the best outcomes for children; compulsory insurance was introduced as part of people’s driving license fees because it was recognised that having to prove someone at fault in order to get support after an accident was leading to absurdities (such as unborn foetuses having to sue their mother).

    It is clear that, when it comes to sexual assault, the legal system isn’t working.

    It needs to change – and appealing to people who are doing their best to paper over the cracks will just lead to more plaster being applied, rather than the walls torn down and rebuilt.

  20. shellbell:

    Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 2:47 pm

    [‘The criticism of the New South Wales police is baseless. Some anonymous source from Paul” I write for my audience’s pleasure” Bongiorno should be ignored.’]

    I do wish you’d stop serving as an apologist for authority figures and start critically analysing what goes on in the corridors of power. You remind me of a certain judge, whose chamber was next to Lusher, J’s… Although I won’t name him, he had a propensity to give credence to the testimony of authority figures too, for reasons I won’t go into here.

  21. shellbell @ #2375 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:12 pm

    Here we are:

    Stacey Maloney, detective superintendent and commander of the NSW police sex crimes squad commander.

    Send her a note Yabba.

    I’d expect it would be better received coming from an erudite, deep thinker like you. You would know the right sort of words to use to get past the instant dismissal of ‘yet another nutter’ like me.

    I would not know how to frame a question about why NSW police could not request that other police interview a complainant, or themselves visit the complainant in her home state, as they did for hundreds of other matters that did not involve the AG. A forensic mind like yours, with the advantage of deep scepticism about the whole corrupt, dysfunctional ‘justice’ system gleaned from many years of immersion in it, is much better placed to get a meaningful answer, rather than the obfuscation us simple minded laypersons are faced with.

    Do us all a favour, and report back soon.

  22. C@tmomma @ #2378 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:19 pm

    William Bowe @ #2264 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:12 pm

    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?

    That’s their job, not mine.

    It’s clear from this week’s developments that “Women” are pissed off with a paradigm of legality that only protects males and not victims”. The system is broken and it’s going to require more than eye raising, snarky comments and a “it’s the system” attitude.

  23. Lizzie
    ” Susie Dent
    @susie_dent

    Word of the day is ‘snoutband’ (19th century): someone who consistently interrupts a conversation in order to contradict or correct the speaker.”

    How did that one ever die out from lack of use??

  24. “Put yourself in the position of a police investigator.

    Q. Were there any witnesses to the alleged violation?”

    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    Well, it’s a question that needs to be asked. She claimed to be with a group of people during the evening. One of them may have seen something. A young 17 year old boy (as Porter was then) may have bragged or joked about it. A witness doesn’t have to actually watch. They might be like the security guards in the Higgins case: arrived soon after. She might have told a teacher or friend immediately after.

    As I said, at least worth a try.

    You neglect to note that I also mentioned forensic evidence of a physical type that may have contained traces of bodily fluids etc, flakes of skin, hair and so on that could still be analysed today.

    Yes I know that easy DNA analysis was only new, if possible at all, in 1988, but crime scene samples have been kept for much longer than analysis of DNA has been possible. Blood type or microscopic analysis, for example.

    I was trying to look at it in the way a police investigator might. The questions seem pretty obvious to me, not remarkable or calculated to provide excuses at all.

    They are the kind of questions that an investigator, trying to maintain professional detachment, and trying to keep emotion and prejudice out of the process, would be bound to ask, and negligent if he or she did not.

    The only alternative is to ignore evidence (remember, an accusation is not evidence) and just go by The Vibe, or something similar, like gut instinct. However, a DPP would laugh “gut instinct” out of his office, absent corroboration, I suspect.

    The investigator would also be perfectly entitled to inquire as to why the complainant had waited so long to approach police. It’s common sense that it’s best to make a complaint,ain’t while the trail – forensic and circumstantial- is still hot.

    Conversely, on the face of it, it’s not common sense to wait 30-odd years. Porter wasn’t always an powerful person. He probably didn’t even enter the legal profession for another 5 years. It would help investigators in understanding the nature of the case to know why the complaint was delayed so long.

    We’re not talking some kind of administrative misdemeanor. We are talking aggravated sexual assault, one of the gravest crimes on the hooks. You don’t just automatically accept an allegation that’s been gestating for 33 years solely on the word if the alleged victim.

  25. BK @ #1990 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 2:35 pm

    That montage from KayJay of all the pro-Porter pieces in the Murdoch premier rag speaks volumes.

    I think you may mean the montage posted by

    sprocket
    Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 2:13 pm
    Comment #1981

    Not that I don’t often post such a rogues gallery (mostly for my own amusement).

    I like to think (for myself usually) of a suitable title such as

    Then, of course, we are left with the task of finding a “collective” for “bunch of pricks”.

    Good afternoon all. May peace be with you. 😇😇

  26. C@tmomma says:
    “Malcolm Farr
    @farrm51
    The understandable confusion after 30 years between the Hard Rock Cafe and the Oz Rock Cafe can’t be used to discredit the woman’s overall claims. Only fools and the deliberately malicious would…Hey, wadda ya know…
    {link to Andrew Bolt’s article in The Herald Sun.}”

    In fact the more I think about it, that minor error actually does nothing to detract from the rape allegation. Real life witness testimony is full of small errors. Their presence shows that the claimant did not invent the whole story later, in which case such details would have been researched.

  27. William Bowesays:
    Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 3:12 pm
    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?
    ______________________
    I think we know that if allegations are made against a Labor figure then C@tmomma believes they fall into this category.

  28. BB

    ‘You don’t just automatically accept an allegation that’s been gestating for 33 years solely on the word if the alleged victim.’

    No, so you hold an inquiry.

  29. Seem that the shits gonna hit the fan now – can only imagine the stories to come concerning rescues ………. See below 👇👇

    QAnon, Australia: Kids in secret tunnels in Sydney, Melbourne …www.heraldsun.com.au › news › national › news-story
    17 Oct 2020 — The QAnon conspiracy movement is growing in Australia and claims thousands of stolen children are being trafficked through a labyrinth of …

  30. Greensborough Growler @ #2273 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:27 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2378 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:19 pm

    William Bowe @ #2264 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:12 pm

    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?

    That’s their job, not mine.

    It’s clear from this week’s developments that “Women” are pissed off with a paradigm of legality that only protects males and not victims”. The system is broken and it’s going to require more than eye raising, snarky comments and a “it’s the system” attitude.

    That’s for sure. However, apparently I have to explain, to the male Moderator’s satisfaction, myself wrt some perceived contradiction in terms that he has gleaned between one comment of mine and another.

    Is he attempting to insinuate that there are no women who falsely accuse men of rape? Much as it pains me to say, that’s not the case. Though it is good to know that most such cases are dismissed.

    However, it also seems as though I can’t make the comment, based upon yet another of Bushfire Bill’s Whataboutisms, that if you took that the quote I highlighted as the standard for prosecution for rape, then it would bin a hell of a lot of those cases. Those succeeding only being the ones where the victim gets to a hospital or police station quickly enough for the evidence to be gathered while it is still fresh, so to speak. Though even then how many of those cases fall over in court? You just have to look at the case against the St George football club player and his mate going back around through the NSW courts for the second time. To look at it it seems like a pretty open and shut case, but not one where an adept barrister can’t pick holes in it.

    As are the apologists for Christian Porter trying to do now. It stinks. However, somehow it’s my fault, as I seem to be the only commenter here that has been singled out by the Moderator, as he has become aggravated at two of my comments not sitting well with him.

    Go figure.

  31. I reckon Kate McClymont is a very brave journo, having reported on all manner of crooks over the year and has been the receiving end of death threats. That said, I’m not sure I agree with her implied endorsement of Clarrie Briese’s book, which claims Wran was a crook, a man unable to defend himself and whose family are indirectly tainted as well as Murphy’s:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/bombshell-corruption-claim-about-former-premier-neville-wran-20210305-p5788k.html

  32. Akon @ #2279 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:35 pm

    William Bowesays:
    Saturday, March 6, 2021 at 3:12 pm
    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?
    ______________________
    I think we know that if allegations are made against a Labor figure then C@tmomma believes they fall into this category.

    What a spiteful thing to say. You’ve only been around for 5 minutes and already you are feeling your oats and lining up to take a swipe at me. Bravo!

    Obviously, as you have only been around for 5 minutes, you have not known about, or failed to remember how I stood up to the barrage of false claims about Emma Husar and commenters suggestions about what Labor should do with her.

    Typical Green, aren’t you? Holier than thou but just as spiteful towards Labor, and anyone that supports the ALP, as any Liberal.

  33. C@tmomma @ #2394 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:46 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2273 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:27 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2378 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:19 pm

    William Bowe @ #2264 Saturday, March 6th, 2021 – 3:12 pm

    Well, with that high bar, there goes about 95% of rape cases ever being brought to court by the Police.

    How do you suggest police determine if the accuser is part of the “subset of women that vindictively make sexual assault allegations against men”?

    That’s their job, not mine.

    It’s clear from this week’s developments that “Women” are pissed off with a paradigm of legality that only protects males and not victims”. The system is broken and it’s going to require more than eye raising, snarky comments and a “it’s the system” attitude.

    That’s for sure. However, apparently I have to explain, to the male Moderator’s satisfaction, myself wrt some perceived contradiction in terms that he has gleaned between one comment of mine and another.

    Is he attempting to insinuate that there are no women who falsely accuse men of rape? Much as it pains me to say, that’s not the case. Though it is good to know that most such cases are dismissed.

    However, it also seems as though I can’t make the comment, based upon yet another of Bushfire Bill’s Whataboutisms, that if you took that the quote I highlighted as the standard for prosecution for rape, then it would bin a hell of a lot of those cases. Those succeeding only being the ones where the victim gets to a hospital or police station quickly enough for the evidence to be gathered while it is still fresh, so to speak. Though even then how many of those cases fall over in court? You just have to look at the case against the St George football club player and his mate going back around through the NSW courts for the second time. To look at it it seems like a pretty open and shut case, but not one where an adept barrister can’t pick holes in it.

    As are the apologists for Christian Porter trying to do now. It stinks. However, somehow it’s my fault, as I seem to be the only commenter here that has been singled out by the Moderator, as he has become aggravated at two of my comments not sitting well with him.

    Go figure.

    I think you make some valid points.

  34. marquelawyers
    @marquelawyers
    ·
    29m
    Thanks everyone for sharing your assessments of the character and credibility of the deceased alleged rape victim, those few of us who actually knew her are so much better informed now.

  35. “ In fact the more I think about it, that minor error actually does nothing to detract from the rape allegation. Real life witness testimony is full of small errors. Their presence shows that the claimant did not invent the whole story later, in which case such details would have been researched.”

    Astute observation. Conflating the “Oz Rock Cafe” in the Cross for the later opened “Hard Rock Cafe” would be a very easily thing to do for an out of towner recalling a trip to the big smoke 30 odd years ago.

    I have to say Shellbell’s line about the impeccable investigational techniques and follow through of the NSW Police force triggers me …

    I’ve prosecuted 5 historical sexual assault cases in nsw in just the last 3 years where the nsw police have variously fobbed off, forgotten about or never gotten around to completing the investigation without the assistance of interstate police – who in each case promptly took a signed complaint statement after years of our own rozzers faffing around. In each case the common features were the suspect having some sort of reasonable community profile and respectability with the complainant being somewhat troubled. Remember this – I’m just one barrister in NSW who handles csa prosecutions. Out of hundreds of such lawyers.

    On the other hand I’ve also prosecuted heaps of sexual assault cases where the cops have not waited until all the paperwork has been done before springing into action. Mysterious ain’t it.

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