UPDATE: The West Australian now reports on a further poll, this one conducted by uComms for the Conservation Council of Western Australia, giving Labor a 61-39 lead on two-party preferred statewide poll. The primary votes are Labor 46.8%, Liberal 27.5% and Nationals 5.1%, Greens 8.3% and One Nation 6.9%, after inclusion of a forced response follow-up for the 5.3% who were initially undecided. There was also apparently a separate poll targeting the northern suburbs marginals of Joondalup, Hillarys and Scarborough, which showed “Labor’s primary vote at 46.1 per cent and the Liberals at 31.9 per cent, followed by The Greens (8.8 per cent) and One Nation (3.8 per cent)”.
The West Australian has details of a poll conducted by something called the Online Research Unit for an unspecified political party, encompassing all of the state except for the Agricultural and Mining and Pastoral upper house regions, which is to say all but the nine most far-flung of the state’s 59 seats. Labor is credited with 49% of the primary vote, up 6.8% on the 2017 election, with the Liberals down 7.2% to 24%, The Greens little changed on 9%, the Nationals down from 5.4% to 3% and One Nation down from 5.4% to 3%. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1546 “in the week before the five-day lockdown”.
Numbers are also provided for upper house voting intention, though respondents do not traditionally do a good job of answering this question accurately: Labor 45%, Liberal 25%, Greens 11% and One Nation 2%, the latter comparing with 8.2% in 2017. On the subject of the upper house, yesterday saw the publication of group voting tickets, which are neatly laid out by Antony Green on the ABC site. We await his calculators to help us determine where the chips are most likely to land, but I offer impressionistic summaries of each party’s approach over the fold.
To start with what I will refer to as the established parties:
Labor. Labor has the Greens second in four of of the six regions, but quite a bit down the order in Agricultural and Mining and Pastoral, where their deal with Shooters Fishers and Farmers places that party second. The Liberals and Nationals are strikingly high on Labor’s preference tickets — around the middle somewhere — ahead of various right-of-centre minor concerns, which curiously includes Shooters Fishers and Farmers in South Metropolitan.
Liberal. The Liberals have the Nationals second in the non-metropolitan regions, which wasn’t the case in 2017 thanks to their deal with One Nation. Their tickets otherwise tend to favour the more established right-wing minor parties, together with the Liberal Democrats and the Western Australia Party. The Greens are ahead of Labor, and have been particularly favoured in North Metropolitan, where Alison Xamon is also ahead of One Nation.
Nationals. The Nationals have the Liberals second followed by Shooters Fishers and Farmers. Then comes a whole bunch of micro-parties, which the bottom end order running Labor, One Nation, Greens, No Mandatory Vaccination, Legalise Cannabis and, in last place, Animal Justice.
Greens. The Greens have more-or-less ordered the parties from left to right, although they have drawn a sharp distinction between the Health Australia Party, which denies being anti-vaccination but isn’t wholeheartedly in favour either, and No Mandatory Vaccination, which is less delicate. Health Australia Party, Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis are ahead of Labor; No Mandatory Vaccination, WAXit, Great Australian Party, Shooters Fishers and Parties, Australian Christians and One Nation are behind the Liberals and the Nationals.
And now what I will refer to as the right-wing minor parties, as distinct from the less established micro-parties:
Shooters Fishers and Farmers. Shooters are apparently directing preferences to Labor in the lower house, but they have the Liberals and Nationals higher in the upper. However, all three are well down the order, with the Australian Christians consistently in second place. The Greens followed by Animal Justice are consistently last.
One Nation. The upper end of One Nation’s tickets includes the right-wing minors, WAxit and No Mandatory Vaccination, with the Liberals and Nationals right behind. At the bottom end are Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis, Labor and the Greens.
Australian Christians. Tickets mostly favour the other right-wing minors ahead of Liberal and National, with the micro-parties generally further down, and the order at the bottom running Labor, Legalise Cannabis and the Greens.
The other parties all bear the stamp of Glenn Druery to greater or lesser extents, heavily favouring each other with a few exceptions:
Western Australia Party. Tickets mostly favour the micro-parties, and to a lesser extent the established right-wing minors. The established parties are right down the end, in variable order.
Daylight Saving Party. The general pattern is micro-parties first, right-wing minors second and established parties at the end, with the Liberals and Nationals higher than Labor and the Greens.
No Mandatory Vaccination. The tickets consistently end in the order Nationals, Liberal, Greens, Labor, but are otherwise variable and hard to figure.
WAxit. The established parties are at the bottom in variable order; the top end tends to favour One Nation, Australian Christians and No Mandatory Vaccinations.
Legalise Cannabis. Micro-parties are mostly favoured, but the Greens are also up there.
Great Australian Party. Tickets mostly favour micro-parties, but the right-wing minors do fairly well too, as do the Nationals. Liberal are low, but Labor are lower; last of all are Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis and the Greens.
Health Australia Party. Micro-parties heavily favoured, mostly followed by right-wing minors, with the established parties mostly down the end in variable order.
Animal Justice. Micro-parties dominate the top of the tickets, with the exception of the Liberal Democrats and the Great Australian Party, followed by the Greens, Labor, the Liberals and Nationals, and right-wing minors.
Liberal Democrats. Micro-parties dominate, with right-wing minor parties tending to come next, followed by the established parties, with the Greens and Labor last.
Liberals for Climate. The impression that this party’s name was chosen opportunistically is strengthened by their preference tickets, which are very similar to the Liberal Democrats’.
Sustainable Australia. Micro-parties dominate, although an exception is made for No Mandatory Vaccination. The established parties are at the end in variable order.
Can you estimate those voting intentions into a TPP? Looks to be a truly massive swing to Labor.
You would think the 2PP figure on this polling would be at least 62-38 when you take into account last election Labor won 55.5-44.5. Depending on how strongly preferences flow to Labor, it could be as high as 65-35.
The Liberals still campaigning in the southern suburbs on the Roe 8 and 9 freeway extensions. Not hearing much from the candidate in Riverton but a flyer warning of the dire consequences of not building it has lobbed in my mailbox.
Strange decision to me given they lost a swag of seats in 2017 in areas where people were supposed to benefitting from the freeway extension and there is no sign they will win them back.
Barnett’s decision to send the bulldozers in in 2016 was an act of bastardry. He probably knew he was toast but may have reckoned Labor wouldn’t have the guts to stop the project. Large areas of bush were cleared in the face of daily protests and a massive police presence and a frenzy whipped up by The West Australian.
I wasn’t sure McGowan would cancel it despite the policy position but I guess a thumping victory gives a new Premier a bit more courage.
Rossmcg
The Libs also campaigned on the EastWest Link in Victoria in 2018.
It did not go well for them.
Tpp would be 62:38 or so ?
Apparently another poll, same news:
https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2021/wa-election-2021another-poll-predicts-massive-labor-victory-ng-b881797916z
Mildly amused by some non-Labor voters almost in panic that that Labor might not only be returned with increased numbers in the Lower House, but Labor might just get control of the Upper House.
According to the Libs and their friends, the end of democracy as we know it.
The fact that Labor has rarely – if ever – in living memory had the majority in both Houses seems to be overlooked. In fact, with the conservative side of politics in WA nearly always having control of the Upper House has lead to some of the largest mal-distributions of voters in Upper House seats – usually in favour of the LNP – ever.
The sour joke on the Labor side of politics was Upper House constituents were based on 1 vote to a human and one to a sheep……
My hope is that Labor does get control of the Upper House and address the imbalance. There have been opportunities for this in the past, but Labor has never been able to make it happen…….The LNP, and especially the L part of this outfit, will scream blue murder………
I wonder what will be the fall out after WA election ?
On these numbers, I’d say Labor would be on track to gain 6 lower house seats (Hillarys, Dawesville, Geraldton, Darling Range, Riverton and Scarborough). I don’t think they’d get as far as Kalgoorlie, South Perth or anything above that on the pendulum though, even though the Liberal incumbents in South Perth and Bateman are retiring.
Hard to say with the upper house, but if there’s a swing to Labor, they’d be close enough to getting a majority in favour of changing the apportionment rules, but not likely an outright majority. The Liberals got close in 2013 by winning 17 of 36 seats off 47.6% of the vote, but short of the 19 needed for majority control.
If those numbers were to be believed, you’d think Kirkup is toast in Dawesville, and the ALP would be well placed to pick up Hillarys (I mean Hillarys! Wow). The drop in the Nat vote would likely result in the ALP picking up Geraldton for the first time in a very long time. Scarborough and Riverton would be knife edge, and you’d think that the contest in Kalgoorlie could be all over the place with the ALP in with a shot there after a long time in the wilderness.
In fact, if the ALP picked up Dawesville, Scarborough and Riverton, they’d be picking up the seats of the last three Opposition Leaders.
Additionally, what would the Federal implications be? WA’s always been way more conservative at Federal elections than State, but surely it can’t be that far apart that it wouldn’t imply a few ALP pickups at a theoretical Federal election?
McGowan was reported in the paper today as “indicating” Labor would consider banning group voting tickets in the Legislative Council which I think most people would regard as a good thing.
On reforming the Legislative Council to remove the city-country imbalance he said: “It’s not on our agenda”
We’ll see I guess.
The benefit to Labor from the M+P and Ag regions – Shooters, Fishers & Farmers preference swap seems to be SFF giving Labor first preferences in the Lower House seats of Kalgoorlie (Lib) and Pilbara (Lab) – suggesting that Labor has an eye on winning Kalgoorlie and is nervous about holding Pilbara. Curiously SFF put Labor second last in NW Central – suggesting no deal there. I previously heard that Labor rated their candidate a good chance to finally defeat the Labor rat Vince Catania. Hard to see anything but internal polling overcoming the hatred for a Labor rat. SFF likely to double their upper- house representatives to 2.
For the Ag region Lower House seats (Geraldton, Roe, Central Wheatbelt and Moore) SFF preferences Labor second to last – so no pay off to Labor there. And SFF likely to be re-elected.
As a resident of rural WA the gerrymander (350,000 votes in two metro regions v 60,000 for M&P) is ridiculous and leads to the ongoing funding of boondoggles with little apparent use beyond election campaigning. Interesting to note that SFF is running Facebook ads that say the regions are paying too much for the metro problems for COVID – so hard to imagine they will vote to end the disproportionate representation – given they would be signing their own death warrant.
@Matt
Not much federal implications at all. In the 2017 state election, WA voted Labor 55.5-44.5. And in the 2019 federal election, WA voted Coalition 55.5-44.5. Similar to Queensland, they vote very differently depending on state and federal politics.
Just been phone polled by a mob identifying themselves as Media Reach.
Usual questions on age, gender, local candidate, McGowan v Kirkup.
Then a series of questions on the Liberals’ energy policies announced last week. About which I know not a lot because they pretty much disappeared under a COVID lockdown media blitz.
Then I was asked if with people predicting a landslide was I worried that Labor could control both Houses of Parliament for the next four years?
I think this might have been a Liberal poll.
Matt @ #9 Tuesday, February 16th, 2021 – 4:30 pm
That didn’t prevail at the last Federal election after WA Labor had won the state election with a 12.8% swing.
WA state results don’t necessarily correlate with Federal results. A strong state result will likely help Labor’s federal performance in WA but probably not to the same extent.
I think Australians sometimes view WA as some redneck conservative state based on Federal voting patterns, but this is generally not the case. I think the conservative, small government slant at Federal elections is more reflective of WA being the State most skeptical of Canberra.
Then I was asked if with people predicting a landslide was I worried that Labor could control both Houses of Parliament for the next four years?
I think this might have been a Liberal poll.
Sounds like it. ABC article has confirmed WA Liberals have a strategy of NSW state Labor in 2011 and Queensland state Labor in 2012. That is putting up the white flag but urging the public not to give the government a massive majority so the opposition can hold them to account.
From memory NSW Labor campaigned like this for the whole campaign in 2011. While Queensland Labor acknowledge the inevitable a week or so left in the contest in 2012.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-17/wa-liberals-change-tactics-state-election-avoid-labor-control/13160380
Rossmcg
I had the same poll last night, I’m in Darling ranges. I had paid attention to the Libs massive renewable energy policy but don’t for a moment think they would implement it, if in power.
The question re the landslide will do damage if they poll enough people and I base this on the fact that most people don’t pay a lot of attention to politics and wouldn’t have even thought of this if it wasn’t raised.
Our current local member is promising an adventure style park next to the new Byford rail station, this is being met by mixed responses. Some think it will be good for local business others think that as Byford has low youth crime there is a concern it will import trouble makers.
Driving around our area although there are virtually no Labor corflutes but multiples for Alyssa I still have to stop on my way to the shops to replant the Labor corflutes that somehow keep being blown over.
@Grimace someone’s done an estimate of the statewide vote from the Online Research Unit poll (since it only covers some electorates):
https://twitter.com/ArmariumI/status/1361601021567401985
I’ll also note that the Conservation Council WA poll seems to have the One Nation vote a little too high. Given that they somehow found 3.8% support for One Nation in three electorates which ON isn’t even fielding a candidate, I suspect they didn’t account for whether One Nation candidates are running when the poll was conducted.
The Australian Institute of Energy held an energy debate with Bill Johnston, David Honey and Tim Clifford (Greens) yesterday. It was a couple of hours of my life I won’t get back.
Bill Johnston stuck to script and actually said very little, Tim Clifford had the standard Greens spiel on renewable energy and David Honey was nothing short of embarrassing.
The WA Liberal energy policy is a kaleidoscope of ideas that haven’t been costed or thought through and has zero chance of being implemented even if they do win.
Grimace, it does look and feel like Labor will receive a very conclusive endorsement of its COVID management and by extension its economic and budget record and I think Labor will achieve well north of 60% on a TPP basis. If this happens the Liberals will likely lose Carine, Dawesville, Scarborough and Riverton. The rest of the Lib-held are very tough, covid or no covid. Geraldton is possible. Darling Range too. In general, I think the Non-Metro seats will not move much. We should not expect to see uniform swings.
On those polls results, I am looking forward to see whether Zak Kirkup can do a ScuMo and pull a “miracle” for the WA Liberals….
Who is “praying” for Zak?
Yes, we all know: State elections results do not predict federal elections results for the same state…
…. Until they do?….
I can’t wait to see how Western Australians are going to vote at the (supposedly) coming federal election…
Alpo says:
Wednesday, February 17, 2021 at 5:46 pm
Yes, we all know: State elections results do not predict federal elections results for the same state…
…. Until they do?….
I can’t wait to see how Western Australians are going to vote at the (supposedly) coming federal election…
Labor are doing so well in State contests because the WA Liberals very foolishly identified themselves with a position that was in direct conflict with the welfare of nearly all voters. There might be some spill-over to the Federal choices. But most likely the transfer would be very muted. WA voters believe, rightly or wrongly, that the Liberals have their better economic interests in mind. It has be thus for most of the last 50 years.
Canberra politics are not much on the minds of WA voters, who see it as a parade of the vanities of NSW and Victoria-centred players.
“Zerlo says:
Tuesday, February 16, 2021 at 7:00 pm
I wonder what will be the fall out after WA election ?”
… A change in the state Liberal leader… plus a grand announcement by ScuMo that the result of a state election has nothing to do with the result of a federal election… After that, the MSM will move on, end of the story… all forgotten.
Oh, but if the Liberals win… the whole press will be over Albo demanding his resignation and announcing the total destruction of the federal ALP at the coming election….
It’s a circus…. full of clowns…. and it’s not really funny.
We must confess, we are looking forward to seeing that nasty Kirkup fellow get a good hiding. We don’t like him one little bit.
Alpo @ #21 Wednesday, February 17th, 2021 – 2:41 pm
Zak was last seen with his head between his legs kissing his backside goodbye after throwing in the towel earlier today:
WA Liberals change tack in election campaign ahead of possibility of total Labor control
It is not quite a public raising of the white flag, but it is a pretty frank admission of where the election race is at.
For months, Liberals have privately acknowledged Labor is on track to win comfortably — and this election is about saving furniture and trying to prevent the government getting a majority in the Upper House.
Now, the opposition is edging closer to admitting that publicly.
“Only the Liberals can stop Labor’s mistakes and keep the checks and balances,” one new Liberal attack advertisement on television states.
And Zak Kirkup has shifted his campaign rhetoric, to emphasise the need to avoid giving Labor “total control”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-17/wa-liberals-change-tactics-state-election-avoid-labor-control/13160380
N @ #20 Wednesday, February 17th, 2021 – 2:29 pm
My read of it is that the swing will be concentrated in the metropolitan area, which is very dangerous territory for the WA Liberals. The variable will be the extent to which the swing occurs in seats Labor already holds, and how much happens in Liberal held seats.
Early on, my prediction was net +3 in the LA. Now, I think the only safe metropolitan Liberal seats will have penciled in are Churchlands and Cottosloe, with Labor a good chance in the regional seats of Geraldton and Kalgoorlie.
I’ll update my prediction to net gain + and control of the LC with the Greens (net gain +3, 20/36)
The wheels have well and truly fallen off the Liberal campaign, it could get worse.
Liberal ads are aiming low, “checks and balances”.
I saw a Labor attack ad today, L Plate Zak, no work experience outside politics, opposed every good thing Labor has done, lickspittle to the Feds, etc. etc.
I know the Libs deserve it, but the kid is at least having a go, as feeble and inept as he is.
Couldn’t help feeling sorry for him.
I wouldn’t read too much into a (probable) coming landslide for Labor in WA except that McGowan has provided effective leadership and good policies throughout his period in power and also has put together a swathe of policies that read well without doing anything too extreme to scare away voters.
(this coming from a person who will put Labor second last behind the Greens, credit can still be given where it is due)
I personally will vote against McGowan but predominantly because I agree better policies are passed when they have to get through a crossbench approval process, rather than any personal issue with McGowan, his policies or his leadership.
A better leader and better policies would probably do more to hold up the Liberal vote, but without a major mistake from Labor during their term I don’t think even a perfect candidate & campaign would have got them up.
If there is any lesson on a federal basis it may be this.. in contrast to more overtly SJW influenced Eastern State & federal based Labor, over West (at least publicly) the party appears to stick very centralist.
What’s good for the state and the bulk of its workers is emphasised, less attention is given to social matters outside this purview and I can’t recall the premier putting together a policy or talking in a way that would indicate that any sector of society should be targeted or penalised by a policy, as federal Labor are want to do.
Not that WA Labor doesn’t make progress on other issues – I’m sure they do – perhaps they just go about them quietly without making them the major focus though. If they did.. I am sure the electorate would go a lot closer to rejecting them. We ARE conservative over here, but votes will come to a politician who doesn’t move his platform to the extreme left, or what many not left aligned would consider the extreme left.
Given that there are a lot more Liberal seats on more slender margins than National seats (in fact apart from the Lib defector in Geraldton all Nationals seats are safe or very safe) there is a real possibility that the Nationals will hold more seats than the Liberals after this election.
What would the implications be for the rump opposition if the Nats held say 70 or 75 % of the non-Labor seats?
Delta: The upper house would be a factor. The Libs have one seat in each region, plus a second in North Metro that are bolted on – that’s 7. The best the Nats can hope for is 3 in Ag, 2 each in SW and M&P – that’s 7 too. Even if the Libs get unlucky with preference-harvesting micro-parties (like East Metro 2017) and the Nats win seats off the Shooters and One Nation, it’s impossible for there to be more Nats than Libs in the upper house. (And that’s with a rural bias!)
If the Libs get bulldozed that badly, they might end up with a leader in the upper house. Of the few seats they are sure of in the lower house, two (South Perth and Bateman) will be held by newbies, which cuts their options further. Bill Marmion is too old, Tony Krstisevic is too “who?”. (OK, the leader of the joke opposition in Queensland had an unspellable Eastern European name and she became a successful premier, so you never know. I doubt it though.) It’s either Sean l’Estrange, or *shivers* Nick Goiran?
I saw a Labor attack ad today, L Plate Zak, no work experience outside politics, opposed every good thing Labor has done, lickspittle to the Feds, etc. etc.
I know the Libs deserve it, but the kid is at least having a go, as feeble and inept as he is.
Couldn’t help feeling sorry for him.
Zak Kirkup is in his first term and he’s defending his seat on a paltry margin and is the youngest Liberal MP in parliament. It was a stupid idea of giving him the leadership so early in his career which is possible to flame out too soon.
Dean Nalder was everything that Kirkup isn’t. The seat he was on a safe margin (can concentrate campaigning in other electorates), has life experience, and had been in parliament for significant amount of time (8 years).
Nalder was the obvious and sensible choice. Apparently though Nalder had rubbed certain powerbrokers the wrong way. He has been accused of undermining Liza Harvey during her time as leader. He was also in a bitter factional fight for preselection for his seat which also got one of the Liberal powerbrokers offside.
I know some Liberals including Mike Nahan were angry Nalder wasn’t chosen as leader which prompted Nalder’s exit from parliament at the upcoming election.
It’s telling that when the job was up for grabs Kirkup was the only contender.
Not quite an empty chair but close.
It’s fair to say that Labor probably overachieved in 2017, winning a few seats they probably never thought likely.
Included in the carnarge where a couple of Barnett ministers who might have held senior roles in opposition.
Remember there was a plan to try and get Joe Francis back into the patliament?
The result was a pretty weak front bench.
The fact that Nathan ended up at LOTO is testament to that. And then Harvey.
Nalder seems to have had his admirers but not within the party. That tells you something. I know of somebody who has done media work for both sides who was approached to work for him but was warned off by people who knew him better..
He’s certainly not my cup of tea but he has at least called out Goiran over the influence of the religious right.
And there’s not much sign of fresh new talent winning seats next month
Matt Woodall has his signs up on bus stop seats all over Melville.
No mention of the Liberal Party on the signs however.
Is that shame or deception?
City of Melville doesn’t allow you to mention political parties on bus stop seats. Dr Jags doesn’t mention the Labor party on his in Riverton.
Newspoll WOW!!
68-32 to Labor (+12.5 since 2017)
The swing would skew metro and if replicated at an election would likely take out Cottosloe and Churchlands. Only Vasse would be left for the Liberals.
#Newspoll WA State Primary Votes: ALP 59 (+16.8 since election) LIB 23 (-8.2) GRN 8 (-0.9) ON 3 (-1.9) NAT 2 (-3.4) #wavotes #auspol
Briefly will be glad the faux have gone backwards.
Grimace
It seems even The West Australian has given up on the election.
Three weeks out and I couldn’t find a substantial story in the paper yesterday or today.
#Newspoll WA McGowan ALP: Approve 88 Disapprove 10 #wavotes #auspol
#Newspoll WA Preferred Premier: McGowan ALP 83 Kirkup LIB 10 #wavotes #auspol
@rossmcg
The TPP is consistent with feedback on the doors.
Grimace says:
Saturday, February 20, 2021 at 12:28 am
#Newspoll WA State Primary Votes: ALP 59 (+16.8 since election) LIB 23 (-8.2) GRN 8 (-0.9) ON 3 (-1.9) NAT 2 (-3.4) #wavotes #auspol
Briefly will be glad the faux have gone backwards.
Yes, delighted. As well, ON will likely fail to retain their seats in the Council. Hopefully Labor will pick up Council seats from the Greens, ON and the Liberals.
Rossmcgsays:
Saturday, February 20, 2021 at 12:28 am
Grimace
It seems even The West Australian has given up on the election.
Three weeks out and I couldn’t find a substantial story in the paper yesterday or today.
————————————
I lived in WA for the first half of my life. I cannot recall ever seeing a substantial story in the West Australian. It still looks better then the Courier Mail I now choose not to read.
By “substantial” I maybe meant prominent rather than what is called in the trade a “filler”, a small story to fill a small space.
The story of the latest Newspoll gets five pars at the bottom of page 10, under a story about Labor’s plans to promote film making in Fremantle.
The bikies get three pages, Brittany Higgins two and right wing warrior Paul Murray gets two pages to sneer at the Liberals’ pie in the sky energy policy. If he doesn’t like it it must be bad.
If this poll with the Libs at 23% is correct then we could the liberals coming third and being excluded in Fremantle, Victoria Park (where the Liberal candidate’s views will further damage her vote), Maylands, Rockingham, Perth or Bassendean. If any of these occur due to the evaporation of Liberal votes we could see the first Green in a 2CP count in WA state election history.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html
WA 2021: How Lopsided Do You Want It?
I have refused to believe the polls and suggestions of a massive landslide, but am starting to come around. News poll, combined with the feeedback from canvassing. Everyone loves MM and have been so many, even in blue ribbon seats, saying they plan to vote labor for the first time ever.
Knocking of right wing thugs like the guy in Hillary’s would be very sweet.
2% for the Nats (down 3.4%)? Surely some of that’s either rounding error or not polling enough in regional WA. I’d expect their vote to be down a bit, but not by more than half.
Bird of paradox….the Nates have positioned themselves as the “dinosaurs” in Australian politics….defending and promoting fossil fuels (esp coal but also gas) when their future is like that of whale oil for lighting in the 19th century…..there is NO future for fossil fuels except extinction. The likes of Canavan, Christensen, Joyce and their ilk once they get the boot or leave of their own accord will no doubt be looked after their corporate mates whom they have foolishly electorally favored…..joining the board or becoming an adviser getting a fat salary to add to their fat parliamentary pension and perks…
The WA Nats aren’t like the Queensland Nats (the three numpties you mentioned). Over here they fill the niche rural independents do in the eastern states, which is why it’s been a very long time since they lost seats to those indies. Their 2017 policy was a Great Big New Tax on the mining industry, which got the reaction you’d expect from the mining industry and right-wing media – the campaign against it was the size of the one against Workchoices, all to take out two MPs in Pilbara and Kalgoorlie. I can’t imagine Barnaby Joyce and co ever having a policy like that federally.