Western Australian election minus five weeks

A summary of recent developments in the Western Australian state election campaign, which officially began with the issue of the writs on Wednesday.

The Western Australian election campaign is now officially under way following the issue of the writs on Wednesday, with red letter days as follows:

Friday, February 12. Close of nominations and ballot paper draw.
Monday, February 15. Lodgement of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council.
Monday, February 22. Start of postal voting.
Wednesday, February 24. Start of pre-poll voting.
Saturday, March 13. Election day.

For a great deal more on the subject of the election, check out the Poll Bludger election guide if you haven’t already. Some recent developments of note:

• The Liberals are seeking a new candidate for the safe Labor seat of Baldivis in Perth’s outer south after the original nominee, Andrea Tokaji, was prevailed upon to withdraw last week over a piece she wrote for a conservative website that posed the question on everyone’s lips: “is there a correlation between the current roll-out of 5G technology and COVID-19?”

• A report in The West Australian on Tuesday drew attention to comments made in 2019 by Rod Henderson, Liberal candidate for the key marginal seat of Swan Hills, who told a Swan City Council meeting in 2019 that climate change had been “totally dispelled” and, particularly puzzlingly, that NASA and the CSIRO had both come round to this point of view.

• The return of Clive Palmer’s familiar yellow-and-black advertisements to newspapers this week has encouraged speculation that he may change his mind about his United Australia Party not contesting the election, as per his announcement a month ago. The latest advertisements aimed their fire on Mark McGowan and Attorney-General John Quigley over the lockdown, the puzzling inclusion of the latter likely reflecting his role in fighting Palmer’s unsuccessful High Court challenge against border closures last year. His party’s chances of making even an indirect impression on the result are non-existent in any case.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

36 comments on “Western Australian election minus five weeks”

  1. Some anecdotal news from the WA regions. We’ve been talking politics to my inlaws over the last few days, they’re all rusted on long term financial supporters of the Liberals living in a safe Nationals seat. They’ve all separately told us that McGowan has done the right thing with the second lockdown and will be voting for him. The seat they live in is not within reach in Labor’s wildest dreams.

    If they actually followed through on that, if, then the magnitude of the swing is going to result in WA Labor’s seat count in the parliament in the 50’s. If, and I emphasise if, their voting intentions have been shifted to Labor, there is likely a general shift in the community that would not yet have been picked up in public or private polling.

    My feelpinion has shifted and I think the only safe Liberal seats are Churchlands, Cottesloe, and Vasse (net loss potential at 10). Toilet paper at WA Liberal HQ will be in short supply for the next 5 weeks.

  2. Grimace
    Similar anecdote. A friend with 90yo parents in South Perth says they are lifelong liberals but talk positively of McGowan and sneer at the youthful Kirkup.
    With sitting member McGrath retiring anything is possible there.

  3. Here in Marble Bar, electorate of Pilbara, Liberal candidate Camilo Blanco is flooding the Marble Bar Facebook page with lying posts about what Labor is doing and will do. I received an invitation to apply for a postal vote from the aforesaid candidate; the address on the return envelope to the State Electoral Commission? No way, it was an address I assume to be a Liberal Party data gathering place.

    I haven’t seen anything yet from Kevin Michel, the current Labor member.

  4. Brian

    Had a friend in Marble Bar a while ago so I see that Facebook page .
    Saw yesterday’s claim that McGowan had no plan to protect WA from COVID.
    Wondered for an instant how Marble Bar was faring. Pretty well I would imagine.
    A bit of flooding and road closures may have been more a worry but welcome I’m sure.
    I had same postal vote application from the Liberals. I’ve never done a postal vote. Must be mass mail out.

  5. Rossmcg @ #4 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 12:54 pm

    Brian

    Had a friend in Marble Bar a while ago so I see that Facebook page .
    Saw yesterday’s claim that McGowan had no plan to protect WA from COVID.
    Wondered for an instant how Marble Bar was faring. Pretty well I would imagine.
    A bit of flooding and road closures may have been more a worry but welcome I’m sure.
    I had same postal vote application from the Liberals. I’ve never done a postal vote. Must be mass mail out.

    The Liberals always work hard on their postal vote campaign, it’s why postal votes favour them. Postal voting has never been a campaign focus for Labor.

  6. Hope you’re right Grimace! I could almost die a happy man if seats like Nedlands and Scarborough fell to the ALP.

    I’m an eternal pessimist when it comes to elections (2019 Federal election sealed my fate in that regard), so I am still worried about seats like Jandakot, Murray-Wellington and Albany. But talking to a few people within the broader labour movement, they all seem very confident. Candidate selection across the board seems really good…Kaitlin Collins in Hillary’s and Stuart Aubrey in Scarborough have been campaigning well.

  7. In the past, if I recall correctly, the Liberals have used the fact that a postal vote application gratuitously forwarded by them had been returned to them marked “return to sender” by the recipient as evidence that the voter no longer resided at the address it was sent to.
    That information was then onforwarded to the Electoral Commission, which would duly remove the person from the Electoral Roll, conveniently just prior to the election.

    I suppose the rationale was that anyone who returned their correspondence in disgust was most likely to be a Labor voter, and therefore the odds would be in the Coalition’s favour.

    Most people would not argue the toss at the polling place about their eligibility to vote in that election, and simply re-enroll after the election.

  8. The Painted Dog Research poll has McGowan on 88% approval and 7% disapproval. Zak Kirkup is on 17% satisfied, 24% dissatisfied, 42% neither and 17% don’t know, which is odd because the way The West reports it there doesn’t appear to have been a “neither” option for McGowan. The poll had a sample of 804 but it doesn’t say when it was conducted.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/zak-kirkup/wa-liberal-leader-zak-kirkup-struggling-to-cut-through-to-voters-according-to-exclusive-poll-ng-b881789770z

  9. I would think the balance of 5% who neither approve or disapprove of McGowan’s performance would be comprised of “neithers” or “don’t knows”.

    That 59% have no opinion on Kirkup is the most telling finding of this poll I think. It’s like the Opposition is almost irrelevant in this campaign.

  10. Noticed that Sportsbet has updated it’s WA election betting market. Labor is at $1.03, the Coalition at $11.00 to win the election.

    There is also a market on seats won with Labor favoured to win either 41-45 seats ($2.15) or 46-50 seats ($2.95). The Liberals are expected to win between 6-10 seats ($1.95) or 11-15 seats ($3.25). The odds for the Liberals to win 5 or fewer seats is $5.50.

  11. Not really a fan of gambling on elections but the news the bookie has the liberals at short odds to lose between three and seven seats is encouraging.

  12. If McGowan delivers a historical trashing of the Coalition in WA, wait for a massive political earthquake to shake ScuMo and the Federal Coalition… Will the doubts about a Coalition win federally be enough for Dutton to again start organising his Qld contingent for a Canberra takeover, just as he did against Turnbull?

    Oh, yeah, yeah, Federal and State elections are two different things, they don’t mix, you can’t predict anything about one on the ground of the results of the other…. Sure, sure… Still, let’s wait and see…. 🙂

  13. I really hope that the betting markets are right, and the ALP does deliver a historical thrashing of the Coalition.

    But I am having a hard time believing it. I look down the pendulum and the low hanging fruit this time around is seats like Hillarys, Riverton and Geraldton. I guess I have a hard time believing that these types of seats are going to be able to follow through with voting Labor. But hopefully I am wrong, and the red wave sweeps everything in front of it!!

  14. Alpo @ #16 Tuesday, February 9th, 2021 – 9:42 am

    If McGowan delivers a historical trashing of the Coalition in WA, wait for a massive political earthquake to shake ScuMo and the Federal Coalition… Will the doubts about a Coalition win federally be enough for Dutton to again start organising his Qld contingent for a Canberra takeover, just as he did against Turnbull?

    Oh, yeah, yeah, Federal and State elections are two different things, they don’t mix, you can’t predict anything about one on the ground of the results of the other…. Sure, sure… Still, let’s wait and see…. 🙂

    There is only no relationship when its the Liberals that get thrashed. If it was Labor staring down the barrel of a flogging, Albo would have questions to answer and Shorten would have gone to a secret meeting.

  15. @Alpo I think the expectation is that this election will deliver a result similar to that of the 2012 Queensland election. It’s not really clear atm to what extent this might translate into Federal voting intention. The position of WA Labor atm would presumably help Federal Labor but many are voting “for McGowan” and it probably wouldn’t amount to more than a 3 seat gain at best to the ALP in WA at the Federal level.

  16. I doubt that there would be any national implications if Labor had a landslide this time around.

    This is a Covid election and state premiers have had a much higher profile than normal. Each Premier has played the parochial strong border game irrespective of their party (except perhaps for NSW).

    If there is anything to learn for national politicians it might be to grow a pair.

  17. It’s weird, my 18 year old grand children and their friends are raving about Mark McGowan. I had to explain how they can’t vote for him but will have to vote the candidate in their electorate. How can we get another landslide on top of the last one. I do hope the kids are right. If there is a further swing to the ALP then it is definitely goodbye Morrison.

  18. At this point Libs anti coal messaging likely to backfire. I dont see anyone changing votes on this. If anything more likely to lose support over it. Is this desperation or what ?

  19. I reckon Lib/Nats likely to pick up maybe Murray-Wellington and Albany regardless of state-wide swing, which will limit how big a number of seat gains Lab will get. They’ll probably pick up Geraldton though. Joondalup and Darling Ranges early votes will show how well the night goes in Perth, so Hilarys will depend. I can’t see Kirkup losing Dawesville now he’s raised his profile. It’ll be a nightmare of a night everywhere for them if they end up losing the likes of Riverton and Scarborough though.

    The McGowan effect is definitely real, and Labor will hope that plus personal votes of incumbents that took surprise seats last time will be more than enough to improve their position. I’ll try and by slightly optimistic and predict their net gain is 2 seats on the night.

    LC will be the more interesting fight as Labor will hope MM’s popularity will help them get enough seats there to have a majority (or at least control with Greens). They only need one more but with group ticket voting still, who knows how that will play out.

  20. Somebody told my son last night that the only thing wrong with Alyssa Hayden as an MP is that she isn’t on McGowans team. She is seen as a hard working representative for the Darling Ranges.

  21. @ 3z

    +5 would result in no comment from the COG. No implications for Morrison – completely unrelated. Anything less and it’s a warning shot for Albo.

    We are poorly served by the CPG.

  22. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-12/wa-political-landscape-turned-on-head-liberals-green-energy/13145928

    In the absence of public polling, this snippet from ABC online is the best we got.

    Public polling has been next to non-existent, but at least one private poll has put Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 61 per cent to 39 per cent.

    That would be a swing against the Liberals of 5.5 per cent and wipe out Mr Kirkup’s own seat of Dawesville plus Hillarys, Darling Range and Riverton if there was a uniform swing.

    If that eventuated, the Liberals would hold just nine out of 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly.

  23. It’s obviously going to be a massive win for McGowan in my old stomping ground but I’m interested to hear from those on the ground if Scomo intends to make an appearance in the West?
    Have the libs invited him? He was obviously keen to campaign in Qld recently as he no doubt felt he could help get the coalition over the line there (and we know how that worked out for him..).
    Really, he should be questioned daily about the WA election, “will you go”, “why not, you campaigned for a week in Qld recently” etc etc. He won’t go to WA no doubt as he won’t want to be associated with the inevitable coalition trainwreck, but he should be questioned on it.

  24. Henry

    It was reported the other week that Morrison would not be visiting WA but things can change.
    He campaigned heavily in Queensland because the LNP thought they could win and he may be popular there with his pro-coal anto climate change views.
    Nobody thinks the Liberals can win here. They will do well not to lose seats.
    Morrison won’t want the be associated with that.
    The WA Libs do have a thing for John Howard though. He might show up if quarantine allows it.

  25. Henry, if I was a gambler I would wager that Morrison will stay as far away from the WA election as he can. Likewise, no local Federal Liberal will involve themselves either.

    McGowan’s popularity does not only come from the COVID-19 response. To considerable local acclaim he stood up to Clive Palmer and his Liberal mates. If there is a swing to the ALP in the state election expect one at an early federal election as well. Reminders about Federal Liberals treachery in backing Palmer will be prominent.

  26. https://antonygreen.com.au/a-record-number-of-candidate-nominate-for-western-australian-election/

    A Record Number of Candidate Nominate for Western Australian Election

    by Antony GreenFebruary 12, 2021

    For the second election in a row, a record number of candidates have nominated to contest a Western Australian election.

    The surge in numbers is largely down to a surge in minor party lower house nominations in support of upper house campaigns.

    A total of 463 candidates have nominated for the 59 districts in the Legislative Assembly, and another 325 for the 36 vacancies in the Legislative Council.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa/2021/guide/electorates

    Click on the electorate name for a full profile of each electorate and its candidates.

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