Battle stations

A lift in the tempo of federal preselection activity finds one Liberal MP out the door and another likely to follow.

First up, note the new post below on the Western Australian state election campaign. To the matter at hand: as talk proliferates of a federal election later this year, there has been a noticeable uptick on the volume of preselection news to report.

• A Liberal preselection for the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies last weekend produced a boilover with the defeat of Kevin Andrews, who has held the seat since 1991. Andrews lost the local party ballot by a 181-111 margin to Keith Wolahan, a barrister and former army officer. Wolahan was reckoned to have enough support locally to have knocked over Andrews ahead of the 2019 election, but was thwarted when the state party organisation took charge of the entire federal election preselection process, much to the chagrin of the membership. Wolahan had support from factional moderates but took to Andrew Bolt’s program on Sky News to push back against the notion that he personally could be so described, and put it to Virginia Trioli of the ABC that he “never joined the Liberal Party to be called a moderate and very few people do in Victoria”.

• It appears increasingly likely that controversial Liberal MP Craig Kelly will be bumped aside for preselection in his Sydney seat of Hughes by Kent Johns, who had the numbers locally in both 2016 and 2019 but was saved on both occasions by prime ministerial intervention. The Australian reported on Friday that Nationals MPs, apparently including Queensland Senator Matt Canavan, wished to recruit Kelly to the party, apparently with a view to him seeking re-election in his entirely suburban electorate. However, a Nationals source was quoted saying this “wouldn’t happen while Michael McCormack is leader”.

Nine News reports New South Wales Deputy Premier and state Nationals leader John Barilaro is considering a move to the Senate. The Coalition arrangement in New South Wales gives the Nationals second and third positions on the Senate ticket at alternating elections, with the next election being the party’s turn for the unloseable second spot. The party’s position is vacant because one of its two Senators elected at the 2016 double dissolution, Fiona Nash, lost her position amid the Section 44 fiasco in December 2017 and it was won on a countback by a Liberal, Jim Molan. Molan lost his seat after being reduced to fourth position at the 2019 election but returned to the Senate upon filling Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in November 2019. Since he is now 69, he is presumably set to retire. The Liberals’ first and third positions on the ticket will presumably remain with the incumbents, Marise Payne and Connie Fierravanti-Wells.

• With the retirement of Labor veteran Warren Snowdon, Sky News reports his regional Northern Territory electorate of Lingiari is set to be contested for Labor by the former Deputy Chief Minister, Marion Scrymgour.

• The Northern Territory News reports the Country Liberal Party’s Senator for the Northern Territory, Sam McMahon, may face preselection challenges from Damien Ryan, the mayor of Alice Springs, and Linda Fazldeen, a Darwin businesswoman. The report says the preselection is likely to be held in June or July.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,041 comments on “Battle stations”

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  1. So do you have voting rights now zoomster or are these restored only after the “audit” purging the somyurek faction has been completed ?

  2. The rate of criminal offending in Townsville is only marginally higher than other regional Queensland areas.

    But academics, justice activists and local Indigenous community leaders say a level of hysteria has driven local and political debate about crime in the city.

    Some experts warned that local vigilantism was “out of control” in Townsville.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/06/townsville-police-condemn-vigilante-action-after-death-of-22-year-old-woman

  3. So, “Insiders” has dropped around 500,000 viewers, now as popular as a rattlesnake in a lucky dip. Speers’ interviewing technique and choice of guests go a way to explaining this. Under Cassidy, this show often set the political agenda for the week, but no more. Speers’ salary is rumoured to be around $200k. I don’t think Aunty’s getting value for money.

  4. Lars

    Hugely a moot point at the moment as COVID restrictions means we can’t hold meetings to vote at anyway.

    Yes, I’m annoyed at the way the things been handled – particularly as similar sins by the Liberals haven’t resulted in any consequences to anyone whatsoever, and other branches of the Labor party haven’t seen such severe reactions – and I’ve had a few whinges here about it (as I have behind the scenes as well) but YOU should really get your facts right before trying to make a Thing out of something.

    You really can’t annoy me by being critical about the Labor party. Nor can you annoy me by making statements which are patently false, but as these simply demonstrate your own ignorance.

  5. Mavis

    Speers seems completely unable to control his urge to defend the government, which is definitely not the sign of a skilled (objective) ABC interviewer. He takes every statement for Morrison as gospel – witness his silly assertion to Marles that Morrison is lifting the number of permanent jobs through the latest “reform” legislation, when analysis has already proved that incorrect.

  6. l

    The far right are extremely keen to get Cormann up. He has backtracked big time on his views on climate change action. Morrison is doing what he thinks he can get away with to help.

  7. I’m sorry zoomster I thought I had asked you questions about something you would know about.

    Not sure how my questions can be offensive.

  8. The ABC doesn’t need to compete with commercial stations, but it takes pride in having high-rating programs such as “7.30” and “Australian Story”. If it did have to compete, “Insiders” would be ditched.

  9. zoomster @ #52 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 10:17 am

    Yes, that’s what I said you said.
    If the report is useless, of course Labor should ignore it.

    You really are a case, aren’t you? You don’t like what I wrote, so you insist I actually wrote something else entirely.
    I did not say the report was/would be useless. I said it was/would be ignored. Which the last one has been. As I have posted previously, I agree with much of what the last report said. It correctly pointed out much of what went wrong (mixed messaging, half-baked and complex policies issued late and not adequately explained etc etc). It’s recommendations are sound, but have not (yet) been implemented, and it is getting very late in the game. However, the report also spends a lot of space and time apportioning some of the blame for Labor’s failures to others (coal miners, inner city progressives, Greens, Clive Palmer, the media etc etc). In my view, this dilutes the overall effectiveness of the report, and would have been better left out.

  10. Political Nightwatchman @ #47 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 10:03 am

    “I thought Malandirri McCarthy was Labor’s Senator for the NT, not Marion Scrymgour, as Mr Bowe states above?”

    This is correct. There won’t be a federal senate seat vacancy available in N.T for Labor to fill. Because Marion Scrymgour is not coming from the federal senate and has never been in the federal senate.

    Sky News have incorrectly got her mixed up with Malarndirri McCarthy.

    It is correct its been reported Marion Scrymgour is favorite to be preselected for Labor to contest the seat of Lingiari though.

    Thanks for the clarification, PN. You have proven that Mr Bowe shouldn’t take Sky seriously, or literally. 😀

  11. P1 – Lucky you to be off grid. Winter cloud here makes it terribly hard, despite my heating being wood.
    I am currently looking at Amber Energy. They charge the wholesale price in 30min blocks. If I had a battery this would allow some flexibility to feed in and restrict use when the price is high. They give you warnings of forecast price spikes. If you have smart appliances that you could control by phone then you could cash in. So long as you keep some power spare in your battery for times the price is high and you need to use the power.

    What this doesnt do is allow you to play the market with the really short term spikes in prices. It is here that some retailers who take control of your battery are really making a mint.

  12. The problem with ‘Insiders’ is that the program title reflects the reality.
    The sports program that follows it is a far more effective current affairs show.

  13. It was obvious to me that David Speers was being willfully obtuse with Richard Marles and pathetically attempting to get a gotcha.

  14. To WB’s current theme.

    Kate Jones is rumoured to be making a comeback to politics to help federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese recover from the party’s trouncing at the 2019 election. A veteran MP and former high-ranking minister in the Palaszczuk government, Ms Jones retired from state politics in the lead-up to the October election to spend more time with her young family.

    One of the best-known Labor faces in Queensland, Ms Jones famously toppled sitting Premier Campbell Newman in 2015, ending the LNP’s only term in government in the past two decades.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/outstanding-queenslander-kate-jones-rumoured-for-federal-tilt-20210206-p5705w.html

  15. Anyway, absent that I thought it was a good interview with Richard Marles, to the extent that he laid out the markers that Labor is for nation building and the Coalition are for preserving the status quo and going back to the future on industrial relations. Good demarcation lines to be fighting over.

  16. P1

    Oh, apologies.

    I thought this —-

    ‘Labor “strategists” will produce another post-election review whingeing about how they coulda … woulda … shoulda … won if it hadn’t been for those goddam coal miners not being well enough trained in Doublethink, and also for those goddam perfidious Greens.’

    — implied (as I said) that 1. Labor strategists were useless – else why put the word in parentheses? 2. The report would just be a whinge; 3. the report would be incorrect to blame coal miners, lack of doublethink and the Greens for Labor’s loss.

    I’m not sure why I’ve got that wrong, but I accept that your words mean something different to the way I’ve interpreted it.

    However, you can understand why, given my understanding of your statement, I thought it would be quite right of Labor to then ignore a report like that.

  17. Late Riser,
    Comments below that article from the punters are positive wrt Kate Jones. I think she would be wasted to be contesting Brisbane, what with The Greens thinking they could win it and thus maybe doing a preference deal with Trevor Evans and the LNP. I would think she’d have a greater chance of taking back Petrie or Longman.

  18. Mavis: ‘The ABC doesn’t need to compete with commercial stations, but it takes pride in having high-rating programs such as “7.30” and “Australian Story”.’

    When Kerry O’Brien hosted the 7.30 Report its ratings were around 950,000. Not long after Sales took over (7.30) ratings were around 750,000. Last week the ratings were around 550,000. Hopefully, Leigh Sales and her ilk will rate themselves into oblivion in the not too distant future.

  19. lizzie:

    Sunday, February 7, 2021 at 10:27 am

    [‘Speers seems completely unable to control his urge to defend the government, which is definitely not the sign of a skilled (objective) ABC interviewer.’]

    I can’t say I heard Speers defending the government in his interview with Marles as his interruptions affected my concentration. Maybe he’s seen the rating’s graphic you posted and thought he must be all the more irritating in an attempt to regain lost ground? I’ve religiously watched the show since its inception but I’m not sure I’ll continue to do so.

  20. Lars

    I’m not very partisan at all atm, as I have made clear frequently on this blog.

    You really need to pay attention.

    I realise that nath’s drive by this morning has reminded you of the good ol’ days, and you may be feeling that you’ve been letting him down, but you don’t need to make an idiot of yourself just to try and please him.

  21. Brexit is just weeks old, and it’s already threatening fragile political stability in Northern Ireland

    (CNN) Northern Ireland’s Brexit backlash has arrived. It snuck in through a side door the European Union rashly opened last week when it threatened to trigger the most contentious part of the Brexit deal, article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, and has quickly escalated.

    The EU Commission announced it could invoke the clause to impose controls on exports to Northern Ireland — which unlike mainland Britain, remains part of the Single Market — to prevent vaccines traveling out of Ireland and into Britain via Northern Ireland. Hours later, Brussels backed down from the threat amid furious protestations from UK and Irish.

    But the damage was done.

    Brexit’s tightly wound terms, dictating an open border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and controls on Northern Ireland sea border with mainland GB, began unspooling almost immediately.

    The province’s top politician, pro-Brexit First Minister Arlene Foster’s retort was predictably icy: “This is an incredibly hostile and aggressive act by the European Union.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/06/uk/brexit-northern-ireland-violence-threat-intl/index.html

  22. Simon Katich @ #62 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 10:41 am

    P1 – Lucky you to be off grid. Winter cloud here makes it terribly hard, despite my heating being wood.

    Yes, we are lucky. We also use (locally sourced) wood for heating.

    Our current plan is never to go back on the grid, even if we eventually move back closer to town. There just seems to be no need, if you have even a modest amount of north-facing roof space and are careful with your electricity usage. We have no air-conditioning, for instance. Just fans, which we use sparingly.

    I don’ know where you live, but I would suggest you investigate the newer solar panels. We recently added some new ones to the old ones we already had, and they are far more efficient (and cheaper) than they used to be – which means that even on cloudy days we now get more than enough power. We recently had two weeks of cloud and rain, and managed fine. You also need a fairly large battery, of course.

    We did struggle a bit last winter, but I expect this winter we will manage fine. If not, we will just add a few more panels.

  23. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/bushfire-scheme-takes-pork-barrelling-to-new-level-20210205-p5701q.html

    But this week’s revelations of the same were gobsmacking. I refer to the fact that of the $177 million given out by the Bushfire Recovery Fund, just $2.5 million went to seats held by Labor and the Greens. At the time of the fires, you might recall the big deal the Premier made of how much the government would help recovery. As the cameras rolled she visited both the Blue Mountains and the Central Coast to show her support – and it was actually in Gosford that she announced the Bushfire Recovery Fund.

    —-

    This sickens me.

  24. How Dubai is paying the price for letting in tourists

    (CNN) — Take a passing glance at Dubai, and you may think life is back to normal. In recent weeks, the bustling city has been a sparkling attraction for tourists, especially from Europe, trying to escape the brutal winter and strict coronavirus lockdowns.

    But as tens of thousands of visitors flocked there during its peak year-end season, the virus inevitably caught up with the city despite precautions aimed at limiting its spread.

    Cases began to rise, nearly quadrupling since November.

    Even as Covid-19 gained a stronger foothold, the images out of Dubai — particularly from the Instagram feeds of influencers or celebrities — painted an image of a wide-open winter sun paradise.

    For those back home in countries such as the UK, where most people are being told they cannot travel abroad because of the risk to health, these pictures caused consternation, drawing criticism of those enjoying themselves.

    https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/dubai-tourism-crackdown-covid-19/index.html

  25. these pictures caused consternation, drawing criticism of those enjoying themselves

    And this is exactly where blame needs to be (alongside that directed towards the government), at the reckless and gormless ‘celebrities’ (C, D or F Grade?) and ‘Influencers’, who can not only afford to do what others cannot but who willfully ignore doing what is right and setting a good example, which is what you would have thought the function of an ‘Influencer’ was, wouldn’t you?

  26. I do hope Scrymgour gets the ALP preselection – she brings enough historic baggage to give the CLP a sniff of being in the hunt.

  27. Insiders was never top 5 and it hasn’t lost 500,000 viewers. That is some Craig Kelly type disinformation!

    ‘In 2020 Insiders has achieved its biggest ever audiences as public interest in the coronavirus pandemic and its ramifications drives an uplift across the news and current affairs category. Year to date, Insiders has recorded a metro average audience of 480,000, up 24% on the 2019 average’

    It’s ratings are down this year but your summary is just total crap from partisan bias. As bad as the people you no doubt complain about.

  28. P1, i have new panels. Covered the north facing roof. 8Kw worth even tho the grid restricts me to 5 feed in (pr!cks). I could put up a carport with panels to add to it and then add some serious batteries. But my experience with solar over the winter is that I would be stuffed unless I kick the induction stove and went…… bottled GAS!

    Even then, the cloud/fog can settle in hard for many days here. It would be touch and go. If only there was a way to store summers solar for winter use.

    Plus, I would then have to stick with wood for heating and I am pretty keen to shift to Heat Pump Hydronic as I have better things to do than cutting, splitting, drying, moving, carrying wood.

  29. zoomster @ #74 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 10:58 am

    Lars

    I’m not very partisan at all atm, as I have made clear frequently on this blog.

    You really need to pay attention.

    I realise that nath’s drive by this morning has reminded you of the good ol’ days, and you may be feeling that you’ve been letting him down, but you don’t need to make an idiot of yourself just to try and please him.

    Was it as ‘Michael’, I seem to have missed it? I noticed a post last night by nath but not another one this morning.

  30. Sohar:

    Sunday, February 7, 2021 at 10:52 am

    [‘When Kerry O’Brien hosted the 7.30 Report its ratings were around 950,000. Not long after Sales took over (7.30) ratings were around 750,000. Last week the ratings were around 550,000. Hopefully, Leigh Sales and her ilk will rate themselves into oblivion in the not too distant future.’]

    Interesting that you make mention of Sales – analogous to a case of beauty is in the eye of the beholder? I say this as she
    was praised in the US for giving Sarah Huckabee Sanders a hard time. Unfortunately, she doesn’t compare very well with O’Brien, evidenced by the numbers who now watch the show:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ-cblFW0cU

  31. I realise that nath’s drive by this morning has reminded you of the good ol’ days, and you may be feeling that you’ve been letting him down, but you don’t need to make an idiot of yourself just to try and please him.

    Why would he stop now? 😆

  32. Simon Katich @ #85 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 11:12 am

    P1, i have new panels. Covered the north facing roof. 8Kw worth even tho the grid restricts me to 5 feed in (pr!cks). I could put up a carport with panels to add to it and then add some serious batteries. But my experience with solar over the winter is that I would be stuffed unless I kick the induction stove and went…… bottled GAS!

    Even then, the cloud/fog can settle in hard for many days here. It would be touch and go. If only there was a way to store summers solar for winter use.

    Plus, I would then have to stick with wood for heating and I am pretty keen to shift to Heat Pump Hydronic as I have better things to do than cutting, splitting, drying, moving, carrying wood.

    I’ve left my induction cooktop on the mains – it just pulls so much in one hit that I dont want to fry my system even though on paper it should cope. I should go to bottled gas for the cooking, and I probably will, but the induction cooktop is just so superior than anything else I have used it is hard to let go of. I burn things much less even though it cooks faster!

  33. timbo, it took me ages to have the courage to use the P option on the induction stovetop. Some things need to be burned. On P, I can even do reasonably good stirfry.

    I am working on more outdoor BBQ cooking for regular meals with a fairly sheltered spot in the courtyard. But in the depths of winter not even the cats want to go outside.

  34. dave @ #73 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 10:01 am

    Brexit is just weeks old, and it’s already threatening fragile political stability in Northern Ireland

    The province’s top politician, pro-Brexit First Minister Arlene Foster’s retort was predictably icy: “This is an incredibly hostile and aggressive act by the European Union.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/06/uk/brexit-northern-ireland-violence-threat-intl/index.html

    And now the British PM is threatening the very same “incredibly hostile and aggressive act”.

    Just six weeks later, staff implementing the Protocol at Northern ports have been withdrawn due to intimidation, the DUP has cut all cooperation with Dublin on the Protocol,

    By Wednesday, Boris Johnson was telling the Commons: “We will do everything we need to do, whether legislatively or indeed by triggering Article 16 of the protocol, to ensure that there is no barrier down the Irish Sea.”
    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0205/1195326-tony-connelly-analysis/

    Fragile, in the way of nitroglycerin.

  35. timbosays:
    Sunday, February 7, 2021 at 11:19 am

    induction cooktop take a lot of electricity considering they are electric.

    1500 watts to 3000 watt for those things can chew quiet a bit.

    BUT:

    “Although cooking accounts for only a small amount of energy consumption in a home, induction cooktops are marketed as much more energy efficient than gas or electric because they cook food faster and lose less heat in the process.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/07/dining/07induction.html

  36. Blinken to Beijing: you will be held accountable for abuses

    Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, warned China that Washington would hold Beijing “accountable for its abuses”, in the first high-level interaction between the countries since Joe Biden became president.

    Following a call with Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy official, Blinken said he had told his counterpart the Biden administration would stand up for democratic values while holding Beijing to account.

    “I made clear the US will defend our national interests, stand up for our democratic values, and hold Beijing accountable for its abuses of the international system,” Blinken tweeted on Friday night in Washington (Saturday AEDT).

    The state department said he told Yang the US would press China over its human rights record in the Xinjiang and Tibet regions and in Hong Kong.

    Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, last week said Biden was prepared to “impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, what it is doing in Hong Kong, for the bellicosity and threats that it is projecting towards Taiwan”.

    Financial Times

    More –
    https://www.afr.com/world/asia/blinken-tells-beijing-you-will-be-held-accountable-for-abuses-20210207-p5708z

  37. I am not a fan of how Cohen ‘lefty’ splains

    Zerlo @ #93 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 10:56 am

    timbosays:
    Sunday, February 7, 2021 at 11:19 am

    induction cooktop take a lot of electricity considering they are electric.

    1500 watts to 3000 watt for those things can chew quiet a bit.

    More efficient than any other option. Far less energy used than coil electric.

  38. Simon Katich @ #91 Sunday, February 7th, 2021 – 11:23 am

    timbo, it took me ages to have the courage to use the P option on the induction stovetop. Some things need to be burned. On P, I can even do reasonably good stirfry.

    I am working on more outdoor BBQ cooking for regular meals with a fairly sheltered spot in the courtyard. But in the depths of winter not even the cats want to go outside.

    Ah the P option!
    My son doesn’t cook much but he often cooks himself some pasta.
    And of course, being impatient P is better.
    Also, like many, he is addicted to social media on his phone.
    He puts on the pasta – a nice big pot of cold water, and answers a post on his phone.
    Next thing the pot boils over – it is so incredibly fast.

    As to the firewood, I understand your dilemma. I am still lucky enough to look at it as my exercise regime. It shakes up the skeleton and flexes the muscles. But its a fine line between destroying what remains of my joints and keeping them healthy!

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