The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor drawing level on two-party preferred, after trailing 51-49 in the previous poll from late November. That headline-grabber aside though, the poll finds the pollster maintaining its trademark low volatility, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%.
Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese record similarly sized negative movements in their personal ratings, though from a much higher base in Morrison’s case. Morrison is down three on approval to 63% and up three on disapproval to 33%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 41% and up two to 43%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 60-28 to 57-29. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the results, and currently records a slight Coalition lead of 50.4-49.6 and a trend of very slow decline in Morrison’s net approval since its blowout in late March.
Avignon had, at times, three popes. So, Biden, Trump and…?
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=avignon+three+popes
boerwar
“The result will be the regional seats either staying with the Coalition or, if not already captured, gained by the Coalition. Now, I can understand the Coalition cynically playing the coal card to gain government. It is more difficult to understand why the Greens are so dead set on helping Morrison get another three years.”
If that is true (Labor won’t win the regionals) why doesn’t Labor have a more united position favouring CC action, in the hopes of picking up some of the inner and outer suburban seats not gained in 2019? Labor cannot change the Greens’ position. Yet Labor refuses to take a position to challenge the Greens, then complains when they lose votes to the Greens.
At present Federal Labor is simply giving the Greens more inner suburban seats. Labor State governments in ACT, Vic and WA have picked up the suburbs backing action more strongly than their Federal counterparts.
Anyway I suggest Labor supporters really do need to listen to that podcast, because the times are a changing. I am not convinced this is adequately understood within the bubble.
“Donald Trump will do everything he can to establish himself as the “US President in exile” over the coming months, according to the author of two biographies about him.”
It’s a pity for the author of any Trump hagiography that most of his fans can’t read.
Oh dearie, dearie me. Is this why Sinovac is in the 50% doldrums?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/china-cracks-fake-covid-19-vaccine-ring-confiscates-3000-dose/13113208
boerwar @ #751 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 4:39 pm
Ah yes. The Avignon cluster.
Churchill – on his best days – was completely overrated.
The fact that he only had a good day once every 20 years or so shouldn’t be ignored either.
The real hero behind Britain’s ability to take the fight to Germany and stay in the ear up until the Americans were finally drawn in was Joe Chamberlain. Contrary to the way we are taught history, Churchill’s baying at the moon routine after he fucked up his political career wasn’t important. What was important was the decisions that Chancellor of the Exchequer Chamberlain took immediately upon assuming officers 1935 to dramatically increase spending on war preparation. He took the military budget to 50% of total before he became prime minister. He was instrumental in appointing stuffy Dowding to head fighter command, in overriding the mid 1930s RAF contract requirements for new fighters – which lead to not just one, but two world beating monoplane fighters, with the development of the world’s first integrated national air defence system and so on and so forth.
Chamberlain has been pilloried by history for Munich. Which in turn is trotted out by high school debaters and modern day hacks as proof that ‘appeasement doesn’t work’. Chamberlain was never an appeaser. As a politician he used the language of the appeaser to sell the deal that he got. That deal was exactly what he wanted, what his military advisors told him Britain needed: two more years before Britain was ready to fight a general war on the continent and defend Britain’s sky’s and seas if it came to that. Viewed in that light Munich was a diplomatic success story. A triumph.
Later on he brought Churchill back into cabinet. As he was dying of cancer he made sure that Churchill succeeded him. Not because he believed that Winston was much chop at governing, but because he could at least bark. The war machine that chamberlain had financed allowed Churchill that indulgence.
I believe that Amy reported that Morrison “confirmed” that the election wouldn’t be until next year. How many people believe him? He hasn’t much of a record for truthfulness.
porororotitititi,
WOW!
When is 2020 going to end? September? October? 2037? 2112?
“When is 2020 going to end? September? October? 2037? 2112?”
Hold on! We are not through 1933 yet.
Soc
You have just described the wedge perfectly. Damned if you don’t, damned if you do. Labor is already so many seats behind. If it loses its last regional seats (IMO Hunter and Eden Monaro are ripe for the Coalition plucking) then Labor has to cover those off as well before it can even begin to claw back enough urban seats.
We can assume that the Greens will try and gain a seat here or a seat there. Assume that they succeed and gain another seat. Labor has to cover those off as well.
IMO there should no longer be a national poll. There should be a regional seats poll and the others poll. Labor would, I assume, have to have a lead of something like 55-45%* in the non regional seats poll to win government.
Whether you want to ‘blame’ the Greens is moot. The core electoral fact is that the centre left and far left is fractured and this fracture is gifting the Coalition government after government after government. The far left is not going to change its policies. They are all there in black and white. They are enough to win around 10% of the national vote. The centre left CANT adopt these policies because they would disappear in a puff of electoral smoke.
As you were.
*Any astute psephologist would have the right number at his fingertips.
Well since we can now make up whatever we want, I’ve decided the 1783 Treaty of Paris was illegal and the US never separated from the crown. I am therefore the Governor-General of the United Colonies of America. I will be merciful and offer full amnesty for those who’ve previously supported the false republican nonsense, if they quickly change allegiances and recognise Her Majesty’s (and, by extension, my) true authority. They have until the end of March.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 4:43 pm
Churchill – on his best days – was completely overrated.
The fact that he only had a good day once every 20 years or so shouldn’t be ignored either.
*****************************************************************
My mum, who lived through the blitz ( as our dear Lizzie did , who also said the same thing as my mum ) – I remember her words – ” he may well have been a drunken old hound but his speeches gave us hope when all seemed lost ” …… and indeed after the loss of soldiers and vast amounts of equipment at Dunkirk all that stood against Hitler were Churchill’s oratory and a small band of brave pilots and 2 incredible aeroplanes in the Hurricane and the Spitfire and a chain home radar system that gave them advance warnings enough to get them into the air in time to intercept the Luftwaffe planes .
I am sure Churchill had many faults and did many unconshionable things before and during WW2 for which he has been judged accordingly ….. but he did help prevent Hitler and his Nazi thugs taking over Europe when it mattered
Boerwar
I am not confident that all coal mining areas will fall to the LNP. There are people in the regions that are not happy that coal is dying but accept that it is. These people want to know that the political parties are looking at sustainable jobs going forward. Labor should be selling jobs in renewables and other industries to these people. Telling them you are going to save their jobs and the coal industry while they are reading about other countries shutting down the markets for their product makes you look like a liar or a fool.
Labor needs to focus on selling the jobs mantra and let Morrison deal with his internal party problems around supporting the coal industry.
boerwar @ #751 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 1:39 pm
The Third President would need to be more of a ceremonial role, and should go to a completely neutral person with public administration experience. To cement their independence the position would not be limited to natural born US citizens, and be open to the best available candidates from around the world.
On that basis I nominate the soon to be retired German Chancellor, Angela Merkel as the very first Neutral President of the United States of America.
Any seconders?
Sohar @ #759 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 1:46 pm
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
Cud Chewer. I don’t think I’ve ever commented on the level I think welfare payments should be set at.
I’m inclined to think that for those who clearly have no alternative way of earning an income – people with severe disabilities or illnesses, the older unemployed, age pensioners in rental accommodation, full-time carers – they ought to be quite a bit higher than they are at present.
And I’m not personally opposed to a lower UBI (lower than the current rate of benefit) for everyone else: but I doubt it’s politically saleable in the foreseeable future.
The cost of it all is an issue: particularly as the proportion of the population of retirement age is set to keep rising for a while to come . Putting up taxes by a substantial amount isn’t politically saleable either. It’s a conundrum.
Kakuru @ #729 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 3:11 pm
Good Afternoon.
It’s good the LNP are losing. Already the ABC have had the 7:30 Report talking about it’s not if but when coal dies.
A point I made a few months ago. Meanwhile Deficit Hawks are losing badly in the US as Biden shows how much more left the Democrats are today.
Labor needs to get on board the train. More calling out of the conspiracy theories of climate deniers as Labor has been doing with Craig Kelly on the pandemic is the way to go
Back the science. No matter your political party as Western Australia shows drastic action supported by science does win the voters over.
As the 7:30 Report documented. The AMWU has joined Green groups in talking about the future for coal in the Hunter region.
Labor’s 2019 policy failed in tackling the conspiracy theories. As voters buying Clive Palmer advertising in 2019 showed.
Thanks to the coup in the US there is much more awareness by Australians of the conspiracy theories. It’s why the LNP are trying to push the culture wars so hard. As the Democrats showed. Be strong on Black Rights Matter and the rest. Campaign on how you are helping workers. Palasczcuk did an excellent wedge of the LNP with the JobKeeper payment. Labor defending workers pay packet directly will be remembered by both those working in small business and the owners of those small businesses kept out of bankruptcy by those payments.
Cutting JobKeeper for North Queensland tourism small business is the LNP attacking their base and saying vote Labor for economic security.
Well done to the Qld Premier well played indeed
phoenixRED
Shame he did not make them. Too pissed ? 😆
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2000/oct/29/uknews.theobserver
ItzaDream
“Way to go! Happy days.”
Ta. We’re very happy to have bought our first home. I suspect the bank is even happier.
poroti
‘Assantdj says:
Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 5:04 pm
Boerwar
I am not confident that all coal mining areas will fall to the LNP. There are people in the regions that are not happy that coal is dying but accept that it is. These people want to know that the political parties are looking at sustainable jobs going forward. Labor should be selling jobs in renewables and other industries to these people. Telling them you are going to save their jobs and the coal industry while they are reading about other countries shutting down the markets for their product makes you look like a liar or a fool.
Labor needs to focus on selling the jobs mantra and let Morrison deal with his internal party problems around supporting the coal industry.’
I agree, in the broad. The albatros is not just coal, which is basically a short hand for all the regional economy killing policies of the Greens. Labor needs not just to defend but become assertive. My fave would be a promise to develop EV assembly plants in Townsville and the Hunter. The EVs targetted would be urban runabouts and NOT fucking utes.
The Coalition killed the car industry. Labor will bring it back.
Looking at the Essential poll I am happy to see some movement and was wondering what caused it. The reduction in Jobseeker will be being felt already and the governments insistence that it will cut out in 2 months would be playing on people’s minds.
If 900,00o people are on this payment that is a lot of people discussing their concerns about the future. Labor should be upfront in what level they think this payment should be at. The LNP are going to call them fiscally unsafe no matter what policies they resent so at least get some electoral boost out of it. I would assume that a lot more people in Australia currently understand the plight of the unemployed than at any time in the last few decades.
Norman Shelley defeated Hitler?
Assantdj
The mortgage/rent pressure valves are being screwed back down as well.
What would Churchill have said of Xi?
BW
Elon Musk destroyed the Ute argument when he released his electric ute.
Labor could advocate in Qld at least for your proposal with Elon Musk extolling the joys of his Ute.
That’s another conspiracy theory lie destroyed in one press conference.
So who would like a friendly drink?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/batemans-bay-stabbing-court-murder-daniel-sharpe-andrew-drake/13113422
The day before the defamation trial brought by Chau Chalk Wing against 9Faix and the ABC in 2018 started, Peter Hartcher in the SMH co-ordinated with liberal party backbencher to smudge the plaintiff under parliamentary privilege – which was then faithfully reported by useful empty bobble head viper Hartcher. Now, on the very day that Wing has won his defo case, liberal party backbencher Tim Wilson coordinated with 9Faix hack Chris Ullman to give Wing another does of the same treatment.
I’m sure that everybody involve thinks themselves to be clever dicks. Right or wrong it is simply another example of the the MSM media co-ordinating with the government’s agenda. If Wing is actually a CCP spy and agent of influence it seems to me to be another example of the government volunteering australia for some extra special Xi treatment without an achievable strategic goal in mind: other than to create a climate of fear and loathing, of ultra nationalism and jingoistic rhetoric to the immediate political benefit of the LNP, especially Morrison, who can – and no doubt will – do 21 flag pressers in the PM’s courtyard to further his re-election campaign when it suits him.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/big-political-donor-named-over-fbi-bribery-case-and-beijing-links-20210202-p56ytg.html
lizzie
In parliament but the “inspiring’ was done via the radio.
boerwarsays: Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 5:25 pm
Norman Shelley defeated Hitler?
*************************************************
No – but the Russians did
Russians paid a very great price militarily and in its people sacrifices in helping to defeat the Nazis and many historians I have read agree – Nazi Germany Could Have Won World War II, Until It Invaded Russia
The Red Army was “the main engine of Nazism’s destruction,” writes British historian and journalist Max Hastings in “Inferno: The World at War, 1939-1945.” The Soviet Union paid the harshest price: though the numbers are not exact, an estimated 26 million Soviet citizens died during World War II, including as many as 11 million soldiers. At the same time, the Germans suffered three-quarters of their wartime losses fighting the Red Army.
“It was the Western Allies’ extreme good fortune that the Russians, and not themselves, paid almost the entire ‘butcher’s bill’ for [defeating Nazi Germany], accepting 95 per cent of the military casualties of the three major powers of the Grand Alliance,” writes Hastings.
Churchill – the Russians tore the guts out of the German Army
What happened after that to their contribution to democracy may well be a much different story …. but ….
Are we seeing the first signs of the move to the regions by the “work from homers” who have relocated from the cities reflected in the polls?
Peter Lewis (Essential) looks at the numbers, and makes mention that:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2021/feb/02/labors-promise-to-be-on-your-side-is-compelling-and-could-win-them-an-election
“ What would Churchill have said of Xi?”
Fetch my luggage, and be quick about it, damn you … ?
When I think about the times I was short of cash I always envied those who were in a position to have a little nest egg to draw on. It makes me wonder how much money from Jobseeker is under people’s mattresses as they have saved a little for a rainy day. The Jobseeker increase was designed to stimulate the economy or at least keep it ticking along but people will continue to constrain spending while the threat of poverty level payments continues.
I do understand the governments concerns about increasing recurrent spending but if that recurrent spending continues to keep the economy healthy then it could be either a net positive or no effect.
poroti
Don’t be mean. The words were Churchill’s.
The reason why Morrison is scared of Craig kelly, is it because Craig Kelly is Peter Dutton’s numbers man/supporter and could get enough support for Dutton to replace Morrison.
Also in case some are confused. Using Elon Musk to undo right wing talking points is not calling either Elon Musk electric vehicles and batteries or the Labor party right wing.
Facts count and Labor politicians using a right wing business man to undo the right wing narrative that Labor is evil for supporting electric vehicles is just good tactical politics.
“ Elon Musk destroyed the Ute argument when he released his electric ute.”
The list price for that monstrosity will likely be something in the order of a billion dollars.
It appeals to the Hummer set of wannabes looking for new over priced toy. Unlikely to be in Australia anytime before 2025 and will be a Double Bay prowler and not a genuine tradie vehicle even then.
Guytaur, you should look much closer to home and the little Aussie battler company that is manufacturing EV vans and utes locally THIS year with list prices that are actually comparable with ICE vehicles.
https://www.ace-ev.com.au/
guytaur @ #779 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 4:27 pm
When did he do that? You can’t even get a Model Y in Australia yet, let alone a Cybertruck. And the Cybertruck is more Hummer than ute.
Haha, you beat me to it!
No doubt Mr. Churchill would have waxed about the savage impulsivity and lack of sophistication of the “Chinaman” and other such musings that would typically come of an English man whose formative years were the end of the 19th Century. He’d probably make a joke about tea or opium as well.
Ar and AE
Symbolism counts. Musk has done some very excellent marketing over decades on electric vehicles. Make the LNP attack that instead of Labor and the LNP loses.
Scott
Scott. Thank you. That really says it all, doesn’t it.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #791 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 4:38 pm
Inadequate range and performance, unfortunately. Too many compromises. They’ve got to have range, acceleration, and top speeds comparable with ICE vehicles too, not just prices.
The primary thing Tesla does right is that they give you a cleaner/more sustainable option without any of the compromises. It’s not symbolism, or marketing (which Tesla doesn’t buy); it’s having tech that’s both cleaner and better performing at the same time.
Still no Tesla ute in Australia anytime soon though.
No wonder some of us have so little faith in the Canberra Press Gallery. This is how they introduced Morrison.
Andrew_Earlwood
Would he have used such polite language though ? But we need not fear Xi ,as Winnie said re ‘barbaric China’ -“The Aryan stock is bound to triumph.”
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racial_views_of_Winston_Churchill#cite_note-36
Symolism my arse guytaur.
The tradie set will never give up their ICE’s – and their compulsive hatred of anyone and any political party they perceive as potentially forcing them to – until (1) there is equivalent EVs at equivalent prices on the market – and (2) they think that product is cool.
The ‘cool’ factor was behind the mass take up of the Maloo HSV Ute twenty years ago, even though it was overpriced, not fuel efficient and didn’t have the carrying capacity of the then best in market Hilux utes. More recently it has seen tradies go for Ford Rangers and such on a similar basis.
I know a fair amount of tradies. They all think the cyber truck sux (and it does. Fuck it is awful: it looks like really bad and cheap BBC ‘special effects’ props from an early episode of Doctor Who). They are not interested. The wannabe hummer crowd probably like it, but zero fucks are given out in tradie land.
a r @ #792 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 5:39 pm
And bullet proof. It’s Mad Max stuff.