Newspoll: 50-50

Labor defies news media narratives to draw level in the first Newspoll of the year, amid little overall change.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor drawing level on two-party preferred, after trailing 51-49 in the previous poll from late November. That headline-grabber aside though, the poll finds the pollster maintaining its trademark low volatility, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%.

Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese record similarly sized negative movements in their personal ratings, though from a much higher base in Morrison’s case. Morrison is down three on approval to 63% and up three on disapproval to 33%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 41% and up two to 43%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 60-28 to 57-29. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the results, and currently records a slight Coalition lead of 50.4-49.6 and a trend of very slow decline in Morrison’s net approval since its blowout in late March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

935 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 15 of 19
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  1. Andrew_Earlwood:

    Well, here’s another nice mess you have got this board into, Andrew. A mere early morning innocuous post has got borewar (and his surrogates) as mad as hell, and he’s not going to take it anymore. On China, borewar is like a starving dog with a bone. He’s become the conscience of the board, if not the country. He makes Mother Terresa look like a dilapidated harridan; the Pope, a defrocked priest. He seems to think that those who oppose his Sinophobic, repetitive rants are fifth columnist commies, with little or no compassion for those facing the ruthlessness of Xi Jinping. He takes the high moral ground with the result that there’s little wriggle room for those who share a different view to his & and his satellites. And he well knows this.

  2. It would be interesting to see a daily collection of covid-19 headlines from exactly a year ago. To see the what we thought/conjectured/were told back before we experienced the reality of ‘wuflu’.

  4. P1
    “A fanatic is one who can’t change their mind and won’t change the subject.”

    That reminds me. Whatever happened to Firefox?

  6. lizzie @ #627 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 12:34 pm

    Craig Kelly thinks that all views should be aired, but the Morrison gov won’t allow Labor to air their views of Mr Kelly. Such protection suggests nervousness.

    Labor MPs and Shadow Health Minister, mark Butler, on the front foot about Kelly and getting out some good jabs at him:

    Labor accused Mr Morrison of weakness for claiming Mr Kelly was doing a “great job” when the MP’s claims could undermine the $24 million federal advertising campaign to encourage people to take COVID-19 vaccines.

    Mr Butler said Mr Morrison had offered a “glib” response on Monday about Mr Kelly doing a good job.

    “Craig Kelly is a dangerous menace and a threat to the nation’s COVID response and it’s beyond time that the Prime Minister developed the backbone to pull him into line,” he said.

    Labor assistant communications spokesman Tim Watts said Mr Kelly’s posts had been shared 10 times as much as Department of Health posts on Facebook.

    “A real leader would have stepped in and said that they would have nothing to do with any MP who is spreading medical misinformation during a pandemic and would have demanded that Craig Kelly be dis-endorsed by the Liberal Party,” Mr Watts said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-poke-the-bear-coalition-mps-say-craig-kelly-shouldn-t-be-disciplined-over-vaccine-comments-20210202-p56yoj.html

  10. Shellbell

    Thanks. The calm before the storm. LOL highlight was the Border Force wally wailing about Scotty waiving the $1000 charge for evacuation from Wuhan.

  12. C@tmomma @ #705 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 2:21 pm

    lizzie @ #627 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 12:34 pm

    Craig Kelly thinks that all views should be aired, but the Morrison gov won’t allow Labor to air their views of Mr Kelly. Such protection suggests nervousness.

    Labor MPs and Shadow Health Minister, mark Butler, on the front foot about Kelly and getting out some good jabs at him:

    Labor accused Mr Morrison of weakness for claiming Mr Kelly was doing a “great job” when the MP’s claims could undermine the $24 million federal advertising campaign to encourage people to take COVID-19 vaccines.

    Mr Butler said Mr Morrison had offered a “glib” response on Monday about Mr Kelly doing a good job.

    “Craig Kelly is a dangerous menace and a threat to the nation’s COVID response and it’s beyond time that the Prime Minister developed the backbone to pull him into line,” he said.

    Labor assistant communications spokesman Tim Watts said Mr Kelly’s posts had been shared 10 times as much as Department of Health posts on Facebook.

    “A real leader would have stepped in and said that they would have nothing to do with any MP who is spreading medical misinformation during a pandemic and would have demanded that Craig Kelly be dis-endorsed by the Liberal Party,” Mr Watts said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-poke-the-bear-coalition-mps-say-craig-kelly-shouldn-t-be-disciplined-over-vaccine-comments-20210202-p56yoj.html

    Labor is doing a good job in exposing the extreme and radical presence in the Govt that is being upheld by the Leader Morrison.

    Labor is correctly trying to contrast themselves as a safe ‘meat and potatoes’ alternative.

    Good politics.


  18. Kakuru says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 2:40 pm

    P1
    “He found he could change his name ”


    But he couldn’t bring himself to change the subject.

  20. Gotta hand it to Amy

    I just had to check the tape, but yes, we have also had this line from Scott Morrison this afternoon, in answer to a dixer on how well Australia is doing in the pandemic.

    Emergencies are emergencies and then you have to emerge from them.

    You’re seeing a line being made in real time ladies and gentlemen. Emergencies – emerge. Like florals for spring. Groundbreaking.

    That’s why he gets the big bucks, obviously.

    (guardian)

  21. Trump pollster’s campaign autopsy paints damning picture of defeat

    The 27-page report pins Trump’s loss on voter perception that he was untrustworthy and disapproval of his pandemic performance.

    Former President Donald Trump has blamed the election results on unfounded claims of fraud and malfeasance. But at the top levels of his campaign, a detailed autopsy report that circulated among his political aides paints a far different — and more critical — portrait of what led to his defeat.

    The post-mortem, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO, says the former president suffered from voter perception that he wasn’t honest or trustworthy and that he was crushed by disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. And while Trump spread baseless accusations of ballot-stuffing in heavily Black cities, the report notes that he was done in by hemorrhaging support from white voters.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/01/trump-campaign-autopsy-paints-damning-picture-of-defeat-464636

  22. [‘Well, Mr Speaker, we’re not going to take fiscal advice from the Labor party.

    …

    …what we see from the opposition, Mr Speaker, is an opposition addicted to politics and not solutions.’]

    It’s amazing that Morrison can say this and keep a straight face.

  23. lizzie @ #663 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 10:10 am

    Paul Meek
    @PaulMeekPerth
    We had major fires last summer in WA but none were close to the city and no deaths (from memory). Three quarters of the sky covered in smoke today, and there’s flecks of ash making it onto my apartment balcony in central Perth. Our north eastern suburbs in serious danger

    The view from where I am is that there isn’t a cloud in the sky but it’s still very grey.

  26. I put a couple posts up at 5 am ish about the proud boys and research on the need to limit the platform of these groups.
    (There was an enlightening discussion on twitter.)

    Like Pawline, they revel in the media exposure and stir up outrage, a danger in these uncertain and fake news times.

  27. Mavis @ #722 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 2:59 pm

    [‘Well, Mr Speaker, we’re not going to take fiscal advice from the Labor party.

    …

    …what we see from the opposition, Mr Speaker, is an opposition addicted to politics and not solutions.’]

    It’s amazing that Morrison can say this and keep a straight face.

    The fact that he can tells you everything.
    It also scares the shiites out of Labor.

  29. ItzaDream
    “With Sydney prices predicted to have double digit % increases next 12 months.”

    I hope so. We just bought our first house, in Sydney (St George area). The price tag stretched our budget almost to breaking point.

  31. If the trend in the voting public is to for vote the political party/s who put health before profits, then Morrison and his cronies will find it very difficult to win.

    Morrison and his cronies have always and will not change their view profits before health of people

  32. meher

    What makes you a right wing bastard is that you’re oblivious to the main thrust of TPOF’s post.

    Namely sub poverty level payments.

    Which I bet you think is just fine.

  33. Quasar @ #725 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 3:07 pm

    I put a couple posts up at 5 am ish about the proud boys and research on the need to limit the platform of these groups.
    (There was an enlightening discussion on twitter.)

    Like Pawline, they revel in the media exposure and stir up outrage, a danger in these uncertain and fake news times.

    All the radicals need to be blocked or muted on social media by sensible thinkers.

    The urge or temptation to click and see what these social terrorists are up to needs to be ignored.

    A click is all they need to gain momentum.

  34. Look at the NSW libs/nats government ,and the libs/nats opposition in QLD,VIC ,WA , ACT,N.T like the federal Libs/nats its always about profits.
    Election during the corona virus
    QLD , N.T,ACT, libs/nats got thumped in the elections

  35. mundo @ #712 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 3:07 pm

    Mavis @ #722 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 2:59 pm

    [‘Well, Mr Speaker, we’re not going to take fiscal advice from the Labor party.

    …

    …what we see from the opposition, Mr Speaker, is an opposition addicted to politics and not solutions.’]

    It’s amazing that Morrison can say this and keep a straight face.

    The fact that he can tells you everything.
    It also scares the shiites out of Labor.

    No. It. Doesn’t.

    It actually serves to reinforce in the electorate’s mind that it’s Scott J.Morrison being a hypocrite and doing projection because Scotty from Marketing is embedded now in the public’s consciousness and no matter how hard Scott J.Morrison demands people stop calling him that he knows people will ignore him and that by him drawing attention to it then it must be true. Otherwise, why bother? And it’s certainly the case that the electorate are awake to Morrison as professional politician, in all its worst connotations. You don’t refuse to shake the hand of the PM unless you already have an ingrained concept of the sort of person he is.

    The electorate aren’t as stupid as you think they are, mundo. They have eyes to see, ears to hear and a brain that connects them together and processes the input.

  38. Labor is correctly trying to contrast themselves as a safe ‘meat and potatoes’ alternative.

    Stop it Rex you are making me hungry

  39. Mundo still pretending he’s a Labor person. I see him as just another PB concern troll.

    There’s always a cloud in every silver lining for Labor to his type.

    Repetitious idiocy is all he’s got.

  40. mundo:

    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 3:07 pm

    [‘The fact that he can tells you everything.
    It also scares the shiites out of Labor.’]

    I’m unsure how you can come to that conclusion. The way QT is designed dictates that the person answering the question is at liberty to answer it as he/she pleases save for relevance. I mean, Labor can’t control the verbal diarrhea emitting from Morrison’s mouth.

  41. Hartcher writes a thought-provoking article on Xi’s behaviours. It canvasses some domains not so far raised in Bludger.

    The first is the concept of ‘strategic space’. Hartcher’s discussion is interesting but the gist seems to be that while the West was debating the concept China just went and grabbed territory from Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei in contravention of international law. It subsequently turned these conquests into military fortifications. What Hartcher left out was this. The conquests increased China’s forward lines by around 1400 km. China’s military harassment of India along the Line of Control demonstrates that it is seeking more ‘strategic space’, this time to the cost of India. China’s harassment of Taiwan indicate that this is probably next to got. There is constant pressure including ship rammings of Japanese vessels, in the vicinity of the Senkaku/Diayutai Islands.The Russians would know that they occupy more of China’s strategic space and that China will come after that in due course. This bit of China’s strategic space relates to the unequal treaties in the 19th century.

    A considerable omission by Hartcher is a consideration of the view that China is merely, solely and justifiably responding to the China containment policy of Obama, starting in 2009, one presumes. But the fact is that the history of China from 1949 to 2009 is littered with military aggression against its neighbours. Arguably, containing China is needed because China needs containing. Ask the Taiwanese. They would have a democratic view. Ask the Indians. They would have a democratic view. Ask the Vietnamese. They don’t have a democracy. But they did get invaded by the PLA big time.

    I note in passing that Hitler called the same sort of thing ‘lebensraum’. There are a couple of key questions here. Will there ever be a point at which China contains itself. Is its drang nach Taiwan finished? Or does China, like Hitler and Mussolini, need to be contained?

    You do have to hand it to Churchill. From time to time the bounder was spot on. While the far right was cosying up to Hitler, and the far left was utterly determined to gut the military power of the western democracies (peace studies in our time?), Churchill spoke up. Again, and again, and again.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/apologising-for-china-s-delinquency-we-ll-be-sorry-20210201-p56ydy.html

  42. [‘In a tweet over the weekend, Greene sounded a defiant tone. She also said she had spoken to Trump and was “grateful for his support”.

    “I will never back down and will stand up against the never ending blood thirsty mob,” she tweeted.’] – SMH

    I guess she’s referring to the bloodthirsty mob that
    stormed the Capitol on Jan, 6.

  43. a brilliant mind :

    Trump’s new lawyer says Dem senators who were victims of the insurrection are biased

    On Fox News Monday, in discussion with right-wing host Sean Hannity, former President Donald Trump’s new impeachment attorney David Schoen suggested that Democratic senators could be biased — because they were in the Capitol during the invasion Trump is accused of inciting.

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-insurrection-impeachment-2650243854/

  44. China says – US Keep your nose out –

    China’s Top Diplomat Warns Biden Not to Touch Internal Affairs

    China’s top diplomat called for a restoration of ties with the U.S., while warning that interfering in the country’s internal affairs was a “red line that must not be crossed.”

    Yang Jiechi, who sits on the Communist Party’s 25-member Politburo, said the two countries can work together to improve global affairs. The video address to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations marked China’s most high-profile remarks to an American audience since President Joe Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20.

    “For the past few years, the Trump administration has adopted misguided policies against China, plunging the relationship into its most difficult period since the establishment of diplomatic ties,” said Yang, a former Chinese ambassador to the U.S. who oversees China’s foreign affairs. “We believe that peace and development are still the prevailing trend of the times, and that peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation remain the shared aspiration of all peoples.”

    But Yang said that Washington must stop interfering in matters that China considers its internal affairs, such as Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang. “They constitute a red line that must not be crossed. Any trespassing would end up undermining China-U.S. relations, and the United States’s own interests,” Yang said.

    Biden has so far signaled a desire to continue the international pressure on China over its human rights practices. Just days after Biden came to power, the State Department issued a statement affirming Washington’s “rock-solid” commitment to Taiwan and urging Beijing “to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure.”

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said he agreed that China’s actions in its western Xinjiang region should be designated as genocide. Meanwhile, Biden’s pick for commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, said Washington must take “aggressive” steps to combat China’s “unfair” trade practices.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/china-s-top-diplomat-warns-biden-not-to-touch-internal-affairs?srnd=premium-asia

  45. Afternoon all. For those interested the following podcast featuring Mike Secombe gives a very good summary of all the external (international) and corporate decisions on energy policy which mean the end of most of Australia’s thermal coal exports within the next decade, if not sooner. The policy futility of propping up coal will soon be exposed. It is a dinosaur industry, and the asteroid is already in sight.
    https://7ampodcast.com.au/episodes/the-world-is-embracing-climate-action-why-isnt-australia

    The Hunter Valley is having some more realistic discussions about what to do next, rather than pretend anyone can “save” these jobs.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/coal-transition-climate-change-hunter-region/13109642

  46. Boerwar,

    Have you written a letter to Xi to let him know what you think of him and if you have then enlighten us as to what his reply was if you receive one. Can you please tone your now obsessive, and frankly damned annoying, ranting down a bit.

  47. Katie Porter recalls the harrowing details of sheltering AOC during Trump’s insurrection

    Porter’s interview came after Ocasio-Cortez revealed that is where she hid during an Instagram Live appearance.

    As Ocasio-Cortez was searching for a place to hide, and Porter tried to calm her nerves.

    she was wearing heels and I remember her saying to me — I was wearing flats — Iremember her saying to me, ‘I knew I shouldn’t have worn heels, how am I going to run?’ And we went and we found her a pair of sneakers to wear from one of my staffers so that she could run if she needed to literally run for her life,” Porter said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/congresswoman-katie-porter/

    AOC is breaking down in tears talking about her state of mind when she thought she might die. “I had fulfilled my purpose.”

    AOC is very clear: “I thought I was going to die.”

    While AOC was hiding she heard people yelling: “Where is she?” They even opened the bathroom door and she was hiding directly behind it. “I thought everything was over,” she says of that moment.

    This is harrowing. AOC says she was told to run and hide. She jumped into a bathroom, closed the door, and then realized she should have hidden in the closet. She opened the door to run across to the closet and could hear that someone had gotten into her office.

    Then after 1pm, AOC says she heard a BOOM. “I hear these huge violent bangs on my door and then every door going into my office.”

    .@AOC says 1 week before the insurrection she was getting texts that she needed to be careful, specifically on the 6th.

  48. Socrates

    All very true but it won’t stop the Coalition and the Greens doing another full wedge coal election this year.

    The result will be the regional seats either staying with the Coalition or, if not already captured, gained by the Coalition. Now, I can understand the Coalition cynically playing the coal card to gain government. It is more difficult to understand why the Greens are so dead set on helping Morrison get another three years.

    It is not as if the thousand year Green reich is just around the corner.

  49. Holy shit!

    Is anyone else getting a lot of chatter on Twitter or other social media about Trump starting to refer to himself as President In Exile.

    Can’t find any sources for this, so it could be either breaking news, or bollocks.

    Anyone else seeing any references to this?

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