Newspoll: 50-50

Labor defies news media narratives to draw level in the first Newspoll of the year, amid little overall change.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor drawing level on two-party preferred, after trailing 51-49 in the previous poll from late November. That headline-grabber aside though, the poll finds the pollster maintaining its trademark low volatility, with the Coalition down one on the primary vote, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation up one to 3%.

Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese record similarly sized negative movements in their personal ratings, though from a much higher base in Morrison’s case. Morrison is down three on approval to 63% and up three on disapproval to 33%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 41% and up two to 43%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 60-28 to 57-29. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1512.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the results, and currently records a slight Coalition lead of 50.4-49.6 and a trend of very slow decline in Morrison’s net approval since its blowout in late March.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

935 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 13 of 19
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  1. mundo:

    “Scrunt and Highpants “

    You don’t have a complete list of your nicknames for politicians, by any chance? It’s a bit hard for someone like me to know who you are referring to.

  2. Lets hope for Australia’s sake that any marketing from Labor on corruption is not as clearly useless guff or lies as we see from the LNP, though there’s plenty of reason to wonder if anything will really be seen through.

    As I’ve seen raised elsewhere, there are questions over just how much faith anyone can put in either major party, when in NSW both the duopoly parties are still nursing bitterness and wounds from the NSW ICAC exposing their MPs failing whilst supposedly representing the interests and concerns of their constituents.

    Too hard to govern, or too hard to continue acting in the interests of your mates and vested interest donors?

    Senior Labor figures including Anthony Albanese argued against anti-corruption watchdog
    By Rob Harris, August, 2019
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/senior-labor-figures-including-anthony-albanese-argued-against-anti-corruption-watchdog-20190801-p52d15.html

    Three of Labor’s most senior figures including Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese argued against a new federal anti-corruption watchdog because some feared it would “make it very hard to govern”.

    In revelations that could blunt Labor’s criticism of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s proposal to tackle corruption in Canberra, former leader Bill Shorten faced fierce internal opposition during debates over the policy, including from his tight-knit leadership group members Penny Wong and Tony Burke.

    Several Labor shadow cabinet members have told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that Mr Shorten faced “strong resistance” in his attempts to convince colleagues of the merits of taking a powerful new corruption fighting body to the May election.

    Some in shadow cabinet, including members of the NSW Right faction, drew on the “disastrous” experience of the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption and its “political show trials”.

    Others had warned as early as 2016 that a new body would discourage “frank and fearless advice” from senior public servants and “make it very hard to govern” if Labor had won the May 18 poll.

    Shadow attorney general Mark Dreyfus led the charge to develop the corruption watchdog with the full support of Mr Shorten and then deputy Tanya Plibersek.

    But several Labor sources said the trio encountered initial opposition during “very willing internal debate from others including Mr Albanese, Senator Wong, Mr Burke and former senate leader Stephen Conroy.

    “They didn’t want it at all initially,” one member of Mr Shorten’s shadow cabinet said.

  3. Quoll

    Thank you.

    Shadow attorney general Mark Dreyfus led the charge to develop the corruption watchdog with the full support of Mr Shorten and then deputy Tanya Plibersek.

  4. If it doesn’t respect the science, Labor might as well put a drover’s dog in climate role
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/without-proper-targets-labor-might-as-well-put-a-drovers-dog-in-climate-role/

    Labor now thinks that its 2018 commitments signed by Butler – 45 per cent emissions cuts, 50 per cent renewables and a 50 per cent share of EVs in new car sales – were too much. But the science now makes clear they are too little. Even the Coalition has embraced the idea of reaching 50 per cent renewables by 2030, or at least recognised it can’t stop Australia reaching that milestone, try as it might.

    Which leaves Australia looking for federal political leaders with vision and clarity. It shouldn’t be too hard, because they clearly exist in South Australia, where the Liberal Party is pushing to reach “net 100 per cent renewables” by 2030, and 500 per cent by 2050, and NSW, where energy minister Matt Kean has turned the energy debate upside down and the right way up.

    The Greens and independents likely Zali Steggall read and understand the science, and their position – long mocked as too radical in Australian political circles – seems barely different to the policies proposed by governments in the US, Europe and elsewhere. But The Greens and independents are not an alternative government, even if they have shown, in Coalition with Julia Gillard’s Labor, in the ACT, and in New Zealand, that they can work constructively and help deliver meaningful policies.

    So we have to wait for Australia to be forced to move by the sheer weight of diplomatic pressure from Biden’s US, the threat of carbon tariffs in Europe, or – finally – the recognition of the massive opportunities for a renewable-rich country to transform its economy.

  5. lizzie @ #597 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 7:56 am

    I think we need SuperComputerMan, KayJay, to explain.

    It’s a html thing. When you copy from a .txt file it copies to the blog cleanly. If it’s copied from a .doc file, or sometimes straight from another website. it can sometimes add other “clutter”.

    WordPress has a 3rd party plugin that deliberately adds a link to the source material on the site. How that works is, if someone is reading your blog and decides to copy and paste a slab of text to one of their own blog(s), it automatically adds the link to your article and embeds that in as a part of the slab of text. A copyright theft minimisation tool if you like.

    There’s a couple of possibilities. There are probably many more.

  6. lizzie

    There are two methods of “Edit”

    The one using the vanilla version of Poll Bludger

    and

    The one using C+

    The C+ one shows a few HTML characters which disappear when you save but sometimes the line spacing is faulty.

    The C+ one adds some bits and bobs when editing posts with pictures.

    I mostly use use the vanilla version.

    Lunch time chez KayJay. 🥪🥪☕

    I’m not an expert just a persistent “suck it and see” bloke.

    Please see Danama Papers post for information.

  7. Quoll @ #603 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 8:08 am

    Lets hope for Australia’s sake that any marketing from Labor on corruption is not as clearly useless guff or lies as we see from the LNP, though there’s plenty of reason to wonder if anything will really be seen through.

    As I’ve seen raised elsewhere, there are questions over just how much faith anyone can put in either major party, …

    With the Greens record of success in Parliament, I certainly wouldn’t have any faith in them.

  8. They stormed the Capitol to overturn the results of an election they didn’t vote in

    (CNN) They were there to “Stop the Steal” and to keep the President they revered in office, yet records show that some of the rioters who stormed the US Capitol did not vote in the very election they were protesting.

    One was Donovan Crowl, an ex-Marine who charged toward a Capitol entrance in paramilitary garb on January 6 as the Pro-Trump crowd chanted “who’s our President?”

    Federal authorities later identified Crowl, 50, as a member of a self-styled militia organization in his home state of Ohio and affiliated with the extremist group the Oath Keepers. His mother told CNN that he previously told her “they were going to overtake the government if they…tried to take Trump’s presidency from him.”

    Despite these apparent pro-Trump views, a county election official in Ohio told CNN that he registered in 2013 but “never voted nor responded to any of our confirmation notices to keep him registered,” so he was removed from the voter rolls at the end of 2020

    Crowl was indicted by a federal grand jury on charges of destruction of government property and conspiracy for allegedly coordinating with others to plan their attack

    Yet at least eight of the people who are now facing criminal charges for their involvement in the events at the Capitol did not vote in the November 2020 presidential election

    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/01/us/capitol-rioters-non-voters-invs/index.html

  9. mundo:

    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 10:21 am

    [‘You mean bring it down to 19 on a 1 to 20 scale where 20 is ‘freewheelin’ it’?’]

    From time to time, Mavis thinks mundo overstates matters. Mavis looks at Morrison and sees a worried man, a spiv who has got a lot on his plate at the moment and detests the impertinent questions of journos and the Opposition. Mavis is looking forward to the first QT of the year, where Mavis is sure that Labor won’t question him on rorts, graft, corruption, Kelly, the roll-out of C.19 vaccines, and so on and so forth. And Mavis further thinks that Albanese’s leadership is as safe as houses. But then again, Mavis is so positive.

  10. People in general don’t like change.
    If you say something is going to change you create anxiety.
    It’s very easy to turn this into a scare campaign.
    Labor’s EV target was very, very conservative and yet the Government was still able to make it seem scary.

  11. dave says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 11:16 am
    They stormed the Capitol to overturn the results of an election they didn’t vote in

    These people don’t really believe in democracy. They want autocratic rule by their kind of suitable person. Obviously they were shocked when Trump wasn’t automatically handed the reins of power.

  12. Billionaire Chau Chak Wing has been awarded $590,000 in damages after he won his Federal Court defamation case against the ABC and Nine over an “indefensible” and “seriously defamatory” investigation into foreign interference broadcast by Four Corners in June 2017.

    Dr Chau sued the ABC and Nine, the owner of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, over the episode called “Power and Influence” which had allegedly accused the prominent political donor of bribing a UN official and acting as a double agent for the Chinese Communist Party.

    In a judgment delivered on Tuesday, Federal Court Justice Steven Rares found the program conveyed four of the claimed defamatory imputations, including that Dr Chau knowingly paid a $200,000 bribe to a senior UN official and was a member of the Chinese Communist Party.

    The billionaire property mogul, who has donated more than $20m to both Sydney University and University of Technology Sydney, had argued the story carried six defamatory imputations, including that he was a spy who had “betrayed his country”.

  13. People in general don’t like change.
    If you say something is going to change you create anxiety.

    1972, It’s Time election; 2PP 53-47. Identical size victory in 2007. Similar size to Obamas victory in 2008.

    I guess my point is that it is not as simple as people liking change or not. There is an element of the following;
    If people are looking for a reason to be scared by one side of politics proposing change, they will find it. If people see a party in a favourable light – they will see their proposed changes in a favourable light.

  14. Simon Katich @ #621 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 8:46 am

    People in general don’t like change.
    If you say something is going to change you create anxiety.

    1972, It’s Time election; 2PP 53-47. Identical size victory in 2007. Similar size to Obamas victory in 2008.

    I guess my point is that it is not as simple as people liking change or not. There is an element of the following;
    If people are looking for a reason to be scared by one side of politics proposing change, they will find it. If people see a party in a favourable light – they will see their proposed changes in a favourable light.

    These kind of events are the exception rather than the norm.

  15. [‘The Morrison government has resisted a push to slap down Liberal backbencher Craig Kelly after the outspoken MP supported calls from a Brazilian medical association to use unproven drugs to treat COVID-19’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-poke-the-bear-coalition-mps-say-craig-kelly-shouldn-t-be-disciplined-over-vaccine-comments-20210202-p56yoj.html

    Not unsurprisingly, Morrison’s backing the errant member for Hughes. This has the potential to turn into a festering sore.

  16. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 1:08 am

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and call it: Boerwar doesn’t care for Xi. Not one little bit.

    There. I said it.’

    I regard Xi as a racist, corrupt, totalitarian genocidal warmonger who hates democracy and western liberal values with a passion.

    Further, Xi is in charge of an economy that is generating between a quarter and third of the world’s CO2 emissions. He could not give a toss about the climate. Xi is the patron of chaps like Hun Sen and Kim Jong-un. He has most likely given comfort to the military coup leaders in Myanmmar. Xi has just totally destroyed democracy and human rights in Hong Kong. His troops regularly invade Indian territory.

    Xi has announced the intention of doing the same to Taiwan and has repeatedly threatened war so to do. If he triggers an attempted destruction of Taiwanese democracy with an armed invasion there is very likely to be all out East Asian war. If Hong Kong was Czechoslovakia, Taiwan is Poland. Discuss.

    Of no particular personal concern to me, but Xi apologists (who appear to abound in Australia and on Bludger) might like to consider that an all-out East Asian War would involve China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Australia – that is to say most of our trade would come to screaming stop. Your precious money flows stop anyway!

    In terms of global power Hitler was a comparative pup. Xi has the same scruples, murders his Party members with the same aplomb, has the same sort of imperial ambitions, is as racist, has the same genocidal tendencies, has the same propensity for arms build ups, indulges in similar personality cult populism, trots out similar irredentist ‘justifications’ and has the same attitude that war gets you what want.

    Looking at Hitler and Xi, what are the key differences? Xi has the biggest army in the world. Xi runs a population of 1.4 billion. Xi’s pact with Putin is very likely to hold given the weakness of the Russian military. Russia won’t be saving the West this time round. The US is fractured. The US is profoundly war weary. The US went into WW2 with an operating surplus. It now owes something like $29 trillion. Xi’s manufacturing clout is incredibly more powerful than Hitler’s. A lot of the ex-US manufacturing clout is sitting in China.

    That is my view of Xi. IMO, my view would resonate closely with the views of the generality of the citizens of Hong Kong, Taiwan, Myanmmar, Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines and Japan. I can’t imagine that a majority of the populations of Cambodia and North Korea would differ very much either. But who knows because they would get liquidated or disappeared if they said anything much out loud. But what would the citizens of any of Xi’s closest neighbours know?

    There, I’ve said it.

    While plenty of people have made up stuff about my views of a desirable national response I have tended not to say too much at all. Except to say that in Australia Australians should be able to say what they think about Xi, regardless of Xi’s feelings. That is how democracies work. STFU is how democracies don’t work. We all know that Xi is inflicting billions in punishment on this little democratic principle. If he gets what he wants there, don’t expect him to stop there. That is not how megalomaniacal dictators work at all.

    IMO, step 1 is to build a national consensus around what I regard as an existential threat to our democracy, our liberal values and our way of life. You know, like what the democracies SHOULD have done in the 1930’s.

    Your view is, I assume, look the other way, hold your nose, STFU, put your head in the sand and your arse in the air, do the bidness, and show me the trade money?

  17. For a heavy looking man, the PM is able to speak with very light words.
    This doesn’t scare off the mordern day proletariat.
    Yesterdays message, you’ll all be better off, no extras for bludgers (bad word choice), to tax on climate and I’m the good guy.
    Yesterdays reality, I’ve no idea how you’ll be travelling in twelve months, heaps of extras for my mates in business, labor will tax you and I’m flying by the seat of my pants.
    Net results, the dumbarse voters still bellieve me, sounds good, my business mates know I’m a crook but hey and I’m on track for the waterfront.

  18. boerwar @ #624 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 8:52 am

    ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 1:08 am

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and call it: Boerwar doesn’t care for Xi. Not one little bit.

    There. I said it.’

    I regard Xi as a racist, corrupt, totalitarian genocidal warmonger who hates democracy and western liberal values with a passion.

    Or maybe he’s Chinese, with a very different cultural background to one you try to impose on him.

    Just saying!

  19. Kelly and Morrison are playing with Labor.
    Labor’s answer has two parts, Kelly is a crackpot, and Morrison supports crackpots.
    No explanation, no elaboration, no other response.

  20. ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 11:55 am

    Or maybe he’s Chinese, with a very different cultural background to one you try to impose on him.

    Just saying!’

    I hadn’t realized that genocide was a peculiarly chinese cultural trait.

  21. These kind of events are the exception rather than the norm.

    I dont agree or disagree. It is more common than you might think. Hawke is another. Clinton and Blair (yes, these were centrists but they did campaign on change or at least everyone knew there would be changes). The difference is they all had charismatic figureheads who usually also had very competent and often charismatic people around them. And there were reasons for the change that were already felt in the community and explained concisely by their campaigns.

  22. Russia’s ‘Harsh’ Wheat Tax Plan May Prompt Sales Surge and Less Planting

    Russia’s proposal for additional wheat-export measures from June could prompt faster sales in the near term and discourage some spring plantings.

    The biggest wheat shipper already is setting levies on grain shipments from mid-February through June, but it plans to replace them with a permanent tax as part of the response to President Vladimir Putin’s demand to keep food prices in check.

    The government now is considering introducing a floating wheat-export tax starting June 1, according to two people familiar with the matter.

    Another proposal being discussed would impose a floating tax on barley exports starting in June, one of the people said.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/russia-s-harsh-wheat-tax-plan-may-trigger-sales-and-cut-sowing?srnd=markets-vp

  23. [‘Labor moves to censure Craig Kelly

    Mark Butler has begun the parliamentary sitting with an attempt to suspend standing orders to censure Craig Kelly for his “irresponsible and dangerous” comments on Covid, and calls for the prime minister to bring him into line.

    The government is not allowing the debate.’]

    This government can’t handle the truth.

  24. Barney: “People in general don’t like change.
    If you say something is going to change you create anxiety.
    It’s very easy to turn this into a scare campaign.
    Labor’s EV target was very, very conservative and yet the Government was still able to make it seem scary.”

    I think it’s probably fairer to say that the mass of ordinary people are more open to change at some times than they are at others. They are typically interested in change when either 1) it seems to them to be urgent and essential; or 2) when government or some other important aspect of our society appears to be stuck in a permanent torpor.

    Hence the public’s apparent satisfaction with the current COVID-19 restrictions (which are seen as necessary), their support for SSM in 2017 (also seen as necessary) and their widespread enthusiasm for electing change-oriented Federal Labor Governments in 1972, 1983 and 2007 (because, on each occasion, the then Coalition Governments were seen as being in the doldrums.

    Now is not one of those times IMO. The average punter is presumably feeling somewhat overwhelmed by all the changes that have happened over the past 12 months. They are looking for leaders who project confidence and reliability. There’s possibly some opportunity for Labor there, in that they have an experienced senior team (if the likes of Burke, Wong and Dreyfus don’t announce their retirements before the next election) and the Coalition doesn’t always project a great sense of being in control .

    But I reckon it’s going to be really tough for Labor.

  25. The U.K. Squares Off With China Over Hong Kong

    The U.K. has opened a path to citizenship for holders of a special Hong Kong passport created before the city’s return to Chinese rule in 1997. Those with British National (Overseas) passports, or who are eligible for them, can apply with their close family members to enter Britain for up to five years, after which they can apply for settlement.

    The move by the U.K. comes as tensions rise with China over its crackdown on political freedoms in the former British colony, including the passage of a national security law last June. The big unknown is how many people may end up leaving for the U.K. under this route.

    Enough Hong Kongers, 300,000 Roughly to Fill Belfast May Flee to the U.K.

    How much it could cost a family of four to get five-year visas, equal to some $16,500

    Possible emigration-related outflows to the U.K. this year, according to Bank of America estimates – $36 billion

    Why It Matters

    China is warning Hong Kongers not to take advantage of the U.K. offer, and ties with the British government are set to deteriorate further, just as the U.K. seeks to forge post-Brexit trade ties with Beijing.

    There are already underlying tensions over Britain’s criticism of China after long-running pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong were violently put down, and with opposition lawmakers arrested. Britain is also moving to ban Chinese telecommunication giant Huawei from supplying its 5G networks.

    Depending on how many people apply for the visas, billions of dollars could flow into the U.K. from the Asian financial hub, especially into property purchases in London and major centers like Greater Manchester.

    But it’s unclear if the 300,000 arrivals estimated by the British government will happen. There are high costs involved, and applicants must prove they would be financially self-sufficient.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2021-02-02/british-national-overseas-passports-has-uk-china-faceoff-who-qualifies?srnd=premium-asia

  26. Trump faces Tuesday deadline to deliver formal response to impeachment as trial looms

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s unprecedented second impeachment trial takes shape this week, as Democrats outline their case and Trump scrambles to prepare a defense amid disarray on his legal team.

    Trump is due to file a response to the impeachment charge on Tuesday but replaced his lead legal counsel over the weekend.

    His new team, led by lawyers David Schoen and Bruce Castor, will have just over a week to get ready before the trial begins Feb. 9.

    Even so, Democrats seeking his conviction on one count of “incitement of insurrection” face an uphill climb.

    They must convince at least 17 of the U.S. Senate’s 50 Republicans that Trump is guilty of inciting supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 in an unsuccessful attempt to prevent Congress from certifying Democrat Joe Biden’s victory in November’s presidential election. Five people died in the chaos.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-impeachment/trump-faces-tuesday-deadline-to-deliver-formal-response-to-impeachment-as-trial-looms-idUSKBN2A125Z

  27. boerwar @ #628 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 9:01 am

    ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 11:55 am

    Or maybe he’s Chinese, with a very different cultural background to one you try to impose on him.

    Just saying!’

    I hadn’t realized that genocide was a peculiarly chinese cultural trait.

    It certainly is not.

    But your obsession on China highlights your arrogance and lack of appreciation of cultural differences.

    Your Sinophobia is very boring!

  28. GOP’s McConnell blasts ‘loony lies’ by Ga. Rep. Greene

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell denounced newly elected Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on Monday, calling the far-right Georgia Republican’s embrace of conspiracy theories and “loony lies” a “cancer for the Republican Party.”

    “Somebody who’s suggested that perhaps no airplane hit the Pentagon on 9/11, that horrifying school shootings were pre-staged, and that the Clintons crashed JFK Jr.’s airplane is not living in reality,” said McConnell, R-Ky.

    “This has nothing to do with the challenges facing American families or the robust debates on substance that can strengthen our party.”

    Democrats have teed up action Wednesday to send a resolution to the House floor that would strip Greene of assignments on the House education and budget committees, if House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., doesn’t do so first.

    https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-conspiracy-theories-shootings-las-vegas-mass-shooting-steny-hoyer-d0622c86db9d67dff60a5d9511801795

  29. dave

    The relevant human rights principle is that individuals should be free to leave their country should they so choose. It is a freedom that well over a million Australian expats enjoy right now.

    But Xi has recently confiscated the bank accounts of family members of individuals who have become an irritant to Xi’s depotism. These confiscations happened in Hong Kong. It is common sense for some Aussies apparently that if you flee Xi, you insult Xi and that is a state crime. Be it on your own head.

    And here’s just one of the rubs. There is a huge risk that if you are an ‘enemy of the people’, and you escape from Xi’s dictatorship of Hong Kong, your family members will be made to pay heavily.

    BTW, if you do escape successfully, don’t expect to be able to return to your homeland for the rest of life. Don’t expect your family to be reprieved any time soon, either.

    Those with some historical awareness would, no doubt, recall how it all worked in Germany in the 1930’s.

    Xi’s apologists will, as usual, do some whataboutism, just continue to STFU of even become personally abusive if anyone points any of this sort of totalitarian evil out for what it is.

    It makes you wonder if the whole of Australia is suffering from the Stockholm Syndrome.

  30. ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 12:21 pm

    boerwar @ #628 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 9:01 am

    ‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 11:55 am

    Or maybe he’s Chinese, with a very different cultural background to one you try to impose on him.

    Just saying!’

    I hadn’t realized that genocide was a peculiarly chinese cultural trait.

    It certainly is not.

    But your obsession on China highlights your arrogance and lack of appreciation of cultural differences.

    Your Sinophobia is very boring!’

    The people of the ex-democracy of Hong Kong have Sinophobia? How very boring for them.

  31. I regard Xi as a racist, corrupt, totalitarian genocidal warmonger who hates democracy and western liberal values with a passion.

    A few things.
    Firstly, I have always said BS to those who argue China doesnt have a history of expansionism. They do.
    Secondly, it is possible to be a reasonably good international sovereign state and not have western liberal values. It is also possible to say you have these values and be a terrible sovereign state.
    Finally, China isnt alone in being a warmonger. But I wouldnt put Xi up there with Stalin and Hitler. I do believe he is far more rational than they were and recognises China has become rich and powerful by playing mostly within the international rules.

    The problem I see isnt Xi as much as its the extreme patriotism he (and others) have unleashed.

    I pretty much agree with everything else you say.

  32. Shorter Boer:

    Xi bad. Very bad.

    Apologists bad. Extreme left. Bad. Very bad.

    Hitler.

    Democracy threat. Australians should be able to say what they want. When they want.

    National consensus. Something or rather. 1930s repeat.

  33. Craig Kelly thinks that all views should be aired, but the Morrison gov won’t allow Labor to air their views of Mr Kelly. Such protection suggests nervousness.

  34. Late Riser @ #561 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 9:35 am

    lizzie @ #556 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 8:24 am

    Scotty building himself up as warm? Whoever had a warm discussion with Merkel? She’s a dry, factual person whom I admire.

    Scott Morrison
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    · 1h
    Had a warm discussion with Chancellor Merkel last night. Swapped notes on #COVID19, vaccine strategies & the impact on our economies. Discussed developing new energy technologies together, our interests in the Indo-Pacific & our shared & deep concerns about events in Myanmar

    Hmm. Our Morrison only has smarm, so any warmth would have come from Merkel. I remember reports of her grinning and frolicking on the streets in Brisbane when the G20 came to town. Perhaps she uses that warmth like a rare treat to civilize “world leaders”. But the interesting part of that tweet is “our interests in the Indo-Pacific & our shared & deep concerns about events in Myanmar”. I recall a report late last year that Merkel was arranging for a shared Australia-Germany naval something or other, and a re-alignment of European interest in the Indian and Pacific region.

    A bit of a segue … they were very keen to get the submarine contract. And buy our LPG.

  35. boerwar @ #638 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 9:24 am

    dave

    The relevant human rights principle is that individuals should be free to leave their country should they so choose. It is a freedom that well over a million Australian expats enjoy right now.

    How so?

    The Government has restricted my right to return to Australia.

    Tens of thousands of Australian citizens are waiting to return to Australia, but can not because of the Australian Government.

    I’m not one of them, but if I did so and then wished to return to Indonesia, I would need to get the Government’s permission to do so.

    So Australians have free movement?

  36. What I dont get about Xi is that China has had a “pretty good”20 years post Tianamenn…build the economy, open to trade, open to tourism, students and Chinese tourists can go OS, making moves on climate, great Olympic Games, even the belt-and-road could be seen as a global plus etc….

    Then all of a sudden bang- Uigher crackdown, HK crackdown, Taiwan threats, trade disputes, South China Sea, cyber wars, military build up etc etc…..it does seem to building very quickly to something sadly.

  37. Thank you, SK

    I agree with your second point in principle and quite strongly. IMO, it is Xi’s practice in the space that is totally wanting.

    I agree with your third point and quite strongly as well. IMO, the US has been more than an occasional terrible exemplar, often with Australia trotting supinely along as deputy sheriff.

    China is not alone in being a warmonger. Agree. The point is that China’s war mongering is systematically damaging to, or totally destructive of, democracies. Then again, in terms of China’s paticular warmongering, there is simply no intention at all by India, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan or the Philippines to wage war with China. It is Xi who is engaging in war like behaviour and who is threatening war.

    I agree that Xi is more rational than Hitler. Not hard! I also believe that Xi is about as rational as Stalin. The concern I do have is that dictators do not always stay all that rational as time goes on. Xi probably has another 20-30 years at the helm.

    There is no doubt that the cult of Xi is busy generating and harnessing extreme patriotism to Xi’s personal ends. It is one of those dangerous games in that, once unleashed, the genie can be difficult to pop back into the domestic bottle*. OTOH, Xi’s state apparatus for controlling individual behaviour is unmatched in history. It makes 1984 look like a pup.

    A Patriot Party, anyone?

  38. BiTJ

    Millions of Australian citizens go overseas, stay overseas and come back every year.
    Yes, they have to do paperwork and get a passport.
    If a pandemic comes along don’t expect this freedom of movement to trump freedom from the pandemic. One of my relatives has been stuck in a Dubai hotel for six weeks. No whinging. No complaints about ‘freedom of movement’. Shit happens during pandemics.

    The notion that your whatabout is about what Xi is threatening to the freedom of movement of Hong Kong citizens is absurd.

  39. Confessions @ #564 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 9:49 am

    a r @ #562 Tuesday, February 2nd, 2021 – 6:36 am

    The other maintains Jeffrey Epstein was murdered.

    Isn’t it at least plausible that he was?

    It’s possible, but not plausible. There have been no compelling alternate theories to official rulings about this death, apart from those circulating in the dark recesses of the internet.

    There are some unanswered questions – security cameras not working, or data lost; guards lying about whether they were watching, or not, someone on 24/7 watch as a suicide risk. And BBC isn’t the dark web.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51053205

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