Georgia Senate runoffs live

Live commentary on today’s Georgia Senate runoffs. This post will also follow tomorrow’s certification of the Electoral College. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

8:18pm At about 3:40am Washington time, the Electoral College vote was finally certified. As expected, Biden won by 306 votes to 232.

8:15pm The last post was about the objection to Arizona. For Pennsylvania, 138 Republicans objected to democracy, with just 64 opposed. That’s 68% of House Republicans who objected to democracy. In the Senate, only seven of the 51 current Republicans objected.

4:20pm In the House, 121 Republicans voted to object, with 83 opposed, so 59% of all House Republicans that cast a vote objected to democracy, with Democrats unanimously opposed. The roll call shows that House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy voted to object.

2:15pm Despite the riots, six anti-democratic Republican senators have objected to the certification of the Electoral College. Their names are: Cruz, Hyde-Smith, Kennedy, Hawley, Marshall and Tuberville. Tuberville defeated Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama in November.

12:15pm In a YouGov snap poll on today’s riots at the Capitol, by 62-32 voters saw them as a threat to democracy, but Republicans disagreed by 68-27. Overall, voters thought Trump should be immediately removed from office by 50-42, but Republicans disagreed by 85-10.

12:07pm Ossoff’s lead now up to 0.8% or over 25,000 votes, with more Dem friendly votes left to count.

9:15am Not the most important news today, but US media have CALLED the Georgia regular Senate election for Jon Ossoff, who currently leads Perdue by 0.6% or over 27,000 votes. The Senate will be tied at 50-50, with Democrats making three net gains this election cycle. Kamala Harris will have the casting vote to give Democrats control of the Senate.

7:33am Since the November election, Trump and his henchmen have ranted about how the election was stolen. The violent protests in the US Capitol today are a direct result of these completely unfounded election fraud claims.

7:22am Trump supporters have stormed the US Capitol as Congress was supposed to meet to certify the Electoral College vote. Mike Pence will not attempt to overturn the results, and Mitch McConnell has condemned those who would object.

7:15am Thursday The vast majority of outstanding votes are in Democratic counties, so both Ossoff and Warnock will extend their leads.

9:11pm Ossoff now leads by 0.4% with 98% in. The projection is still for an Ossoff win by 1.1%.

6:24pm Some more of DeKalb is in, putting Warnock up by 1.0% and Ossoff retakes the lead from Perdue by 0.2% or 9.5k votes. The networks and the AP have CALLED for Warnock.

5:37pm Apparently there’s a technical glitch in DeKalb county that is delaying the count of votes that should put Ossoff over the top.

5:30pm A small turnout differential in Democrats’ favour was partly responsible for the result. Also, in November Perdue won by 1.8% while Biden defeated Trump by 0.3% in Georgia. There were a small number of Biden/Perdue voters who this time likely voted Dem.

5:26pm Compared with November, turnout was slightly higher in Biden and Black precincts than in Trump and rural precincts, but not much higher. Overall turnout will be about 90% of November levels.

4:40pm There are still votes remaining in DeKalb, which is only at 91% reported. When those votes report, Ossoff should take and keep the lead.

3:56pm Wasserman CALLS the regular Senate election for Ossoff. That gives Democrats two Senate gains from Georgia, and the Senate is tied 50-50. Kamala Harris will break the tie for the Dems.

3:40pm Perdue and Ossoff almost tied now, with Perdue ahead by a few hundred votes.

3:36pm Perdue’s lead down to just 0.08%.

3:30pm Perdue leads by 0.2% with 95% in, but there’s still more metro Atlanta left, while Rep counties are used up.

3:19pm A big Dem dump reported, and now it’s Warnock by 0.8% and Perdue by just 0.07% with 95% in.

3:10pm Despite a current Perdue lead of 3% with 91% in, the Needle has Ossoff winning by 1.0% with a 92% win probability.

2:56pm With 90% in, Perdue’s margin drops back to 2.6%, and the Needle has Ossoff winning by 1.0% with an 88% win probability.

2:47pm The Needle goes to at most 95% win probability, and Warnock is at that point. After that, it waits for official calls.

2:42pm While Perdue currently leads Ossoff by 3.0% with 87% reporting, the Needle thinks Ossoff will win by 1.0% and gives him an 81% chance to win. There are many more heavily Dem favouring votes yet to report.

2:17pm Ossoff’s win probability up to 76%, while Warnock is at 90%.

2:07pm The Needle has Ossoff’s win probability up to 73%, while Warnock is at 87%. If Ossoff wins, Republicans will be cursing the Libertarian who got 2.3% in November, denying Perdue an outright win.

1:55pm There’s still lots more votes left in Atlanta, which is why the Needle has projected final margins of Ossoff by 1.0% and Warnock by 1.7%, even though both Republicans are currently ahead in the raw vote count. Ossoff’s win probability up to 70%.

1:44pm Wasserman CALLS the Senate by-election for Warnock (D).

1:40pm With 78% in, it’s Loeffler by 0.6% and Perdue by 1.3%. But the projected margins are Warnock by 1.7% and Ossoff by 1.0%.

1:28pm With 69% counted, both Republicans have taken the lead, Perdue by 1.1% and Loeffler by 0.35%. However, there’s lots more votes left in the Dem-heavy Atlanta area, and the projected margins are Warnock by 1.6% and Ossoff by 0.9%.

1:09pm Just had lunch, and there’s been a big narrowing in the Dem leads. With 63% in, it’s Warnock by 0.6% and Ossoff by just 0.04%. However, the Needle is more confident in both Dems, with Warnock projected to win by 1.4% (68% chance) and Ossoff by 0.7% (60% chance).

12:42pm With 49% in, it’s Warnock by 8 and Ossoff by 7. The Needle has Warnock by 1.2% and Ossoff by 0.7%, with both Dems at around 60% win probability. There’s still a lot of election day vote to come.

12:25pm With 42% reporting, Warnock leads by 11 and Ossoff by 10. The Needle has both races tilting Dem, with Warnock up 1.2% and Ossoff up 0.8%.

12:22pm Wasserman has a good result for both Democrats from Washington county.

12:17pm Wasserman says that many very rural, very Republican counties are below 90% of November turnout. We already know that DeKalb will be over 90% of November levels.

12:11pm With 29% in, it’s Warnock by 4 and Ossoff by 3. Warnock has a 60% chance to win, Ossoff 57%.

11:56am Both Democrats up by 12 with 18% in, and both leading on the Needle by 0.5-1.0%. Both races now classes as Tilting Democrat, from Flip a Coin.

11:52am Dave Wasserman tweets that Republicans trail Trump’s numbers by a point or two in Lanier county with only 86% of November turnout.

11:45am Ossoff now up by more than Warnock (6 vs 3) with 11% in. The Needle has both Dems ahead by under 1%.

11:37am With 9% reporting, it’s Warnock by 14 and Ossoff by 12. The Needle still has both Democrats barely ahead.

11:27am Democratic counties are reporting far earlier than in November. It’s currently Warnock by 30 and Ossoff by 27, but the Needle has both Democrats barely ahead.

11am New York Times results available here, with a Needle for both races.

10:30am Looks like good turnout news for Democrats: DeKalb county (83% Biden) is at 90% of November turnout levels with an hour until polls close.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

After the November election, Republicans had a 50-48 lead over Democrats in the Senate. The final two seats, both in Georgia, went to runoffs that will be decided today. If Democrats win both of these contests, they will tie Republicans at 50-50 in the Senate, and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie breaking vote.

The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate has both Democrats moving into slight leads, with Jon Ossoff (D) leading David Perdue (R) by 1.8% and Raphael Warnock (D) leading Kelly Loeffler (R) by 2.1%. Ossoff has gained 0.9% and Warnock 0.3% since Saturday’s article.

Polls in Georgia close at 11am AEDT. In November, the counting was slow in Georgia, with initial results strong for Republicans owing to a rural bias. The suburbs around Atlanta did not start reporting until late on election night.

Concerning tomorrow’s Congressional certification of the Electoral College, all I have to add to Saturday’s article is that at least 12 Republican senators will join Josh Hawley in objecting to the results.

On Sunday, Democrat Nancy Pelosi was re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives, winning 216 votes to 209 for Republican Kevin McCarthy. There were two votes for other candidates. Pelosi needed a majority of all candidate votes. As there were 427 such votes, she needed 214, so exceeded the required majority by two.

337 comments on “Georgia Senate runoffs live”

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  1. Been There @ #298 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 9:16 pm

    Confessions
    “Wow what a fantastic result! I never thought this would happen, fully expected it’d be 2 GOP Senators incoming.”

    Why would you even think that?

    It’s motherfucking Georgia!

    Also history says the swing should be against the party that wins the Presidency. As in, against the Democrats.

    Georgia + negative swing = no chance

    …or it would, if not for Trump and all the horrible things that he does and is.

  2. Tom the first and best

    “With not enough Democrats willing to reform the filibuster on current numbers, only taxation and spending based reforms (through reconciliation bills) and appointments (presuming Republicans don`t change the rules before the new senators from Georgia take their seats) have any likelihood of getting through without significant Republican support. Medicare/Medicaid expansion (limited to 10 years as they would be spending increases), undoing some of Trump`s high income and corporate tax cuts and possibly expanding the types of guns covered by the National Firearms Act (on the grounds the NFA is the basis for the transfer tax of (currently) $200) might get through without Republican support but little else will.”

    So you are an instant expert on what’s happening with the US government?

    Very good to have your inside advice.

    Listen,we are all armchair experts following all the various reports.

    I don’t need your summary of what the US media “experts” think.

  3. It seems that the doGs above do have some sympathy for the US. I really thought that the Repugs would win at least one of those seats. Good to see that revolting QAnon woman is out. 🙂

  4. a r
    I’m not going back through history, but you were probably one of the nervous Nellie’s that didn’t think Biden would win, even when every trend was going his way.

    Correct me, and apologies if I’m wrong.

    Looks like “It’s motherfucking Georgia!” has just delivered Biden and many astute punters a very large victory.

    Why wouldn’t “motherfucking Georgia” give Biden the motherfucking Senate when they gave him the motherfucking State?

    Where have you been?

  5. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/01/06/georgia-senate-runoffs-live/comment-page-7/#comment-3537235

    Multiple Democratic senators have stated publicly that they oppose filibuster reform, even with today`s result all Democrats would need to back filibuster reform (as not Republicans will do it with a Democratic trifecta). Therefore, except for a few measures that the filibuster (reconciliation bills, appointment confirmations, etc.) does not apply to, 10 Republican votes are needed to overcome the filibuster pass anything.

    That will be an important fact over the next 2 years.

  6. Been There @ #306 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 9:58 pm

    I’m not going back through history, but you were probably one of the nervous Nellie’s that didn’t think Biden would win, even when every trend was going his way.

    Correct me, and apologies if I’m wrong.

    Actually I bet on Biden to win around when Florida was being called for Trump.

    Why wouldn’t “motherfucking Georgia” give Biden the motherfucking Senate when they gave him the motherfucking State?

    Because history says Georgia is a red state, and history says the party winning the White House gets a backlash in Congressional races (which we saw play out in the House during the presidential election).

    Where have you been?

    Listening to people explain how these things historically play out.

  7. I just woke up to mixed news from the US. The good news of course is Ossoff and Warnock. The bad news is the Capitol Building with rioters breaching the Senate Chamber. I won’t call them protestors. Their actions define them as rioters. And if they know these words, also insurrectionists, traitors, cowards, thugs, even terrorists. I read a report from someone who was saddened by what she saw. Sad is not the appropriate response. This should make every American angry. Fuck being “sad for our democracy”. Sad is when you can’t be bothered to be angry. Fuck making excuses for misinformed rioters. Insurrection cannot be met meekly. Start with Trump, and move quickly on to his rioters. Lock ’em all up. And then go after the so-called “law-makers” who incited them.

    Forget about wondering what Trump is gonna do next. Pence has an opportunity here. Pence has a duty here. The rioting cannot be allowed to go on for another 14 days. If it does, Pence has a different destiny waiting for him.

  8. Morrison MUST name and shame his political fuck buddy.
    Morrison MUST hand back his Legion of Merit medal.
    Morrison MUST condemn Australian extremist right wing groups.

  9. Although I very much hoped for the Democrats to win both seats – it was not my expectation.
    The glass tends to be half empty, not half full. But then I firmly believed that Trump would lose in 2016 and Shorten would win. So happy to be proved wrong on this occasion.

  10. I never thought I’d see the day that both Arizona and Georgia each have two senators from the Democratic Party. Barry Goldwater would spin in his grave.

  11. There you go. The deed is done. Biden and Harris have won this election for the millionth time and there is literally no (legal) method Trump can use to stop them from assuming their respective offices on the 20th.

    As for what happened today, there are some people that need to be held responsible and not just those who broke into the capitol. A lot of incitement led to this and it wasn’t just a passionate protest that got out of control – it was an intentional attempt by a Fascist movement to retain power by force. While those who organised and participated should all have the book thrown at them, let’s not forget that there are people inside the chamber feeding them and, even when things resumed, continued to feed them. Not to mention the President himself. While they’re probably not legally culpable in any way, they are politically culpable and voters need to be reminded of that. I fear that, by the time even the mid-terms come around, people will forget what happened today and be more focused on “sending Biden a message” or whatever promise of tax cuts or whatever the Republicans are offering that day.

    On a personal level, I feel vindicated. All year I had framed the 2020 election as, ultimately, a race between a fascist and a non-fascist and, regardless of what you think of the non-fascist, the choice is starkly obvious. Despite that, we saw the most toxic takes from certain individuals who thought that they were the smartest people in the room and that fascism is fine if it stops the advance of “(neo)liberals” or “centrists”. Hell, some even were envious and claimed that the left side of politics needed their own Trumps (in the US and elsewhere.) They saw the lead up to this and thought to themselves: “We gotta get in on this.” Those people know who they are and we know who they are, and they should never be listened to again.

    Apologies for the long, rambly post here but I have had a long day and my thoughts are all over the place but I just wanted to share a few of them. There are still two weeks to go and I understand if many Americans feel like they’re the longest, scariest two weeks but it’s almost over. Things won’t be perfect afterwards and this movement still looms on the horizon (and could return with extra force) but, at least for a little while, you can have a little comfort.

  12. There once was a man called Trump
    Who lived off the Republican rump
    When push came to shove
    They showed him no love
    And dropped him like a turd at the dump

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