8:18pm At about 3:40am Washington time, the Electoral College vote was finally certified. As expected, Biden won by 306 votes to 232.
8:15pm The last post was about the objection to Arizona. For Pennsylvania, 138 Republicans objected to democracy, with just 64 opposed. That’s 68% of House Republicans who objected to democracy. In the Senate, only seven of the 51 current Republicans objected.
4:20pm In the House, 121 Republicans voted to object, with 83 opposed, so 59% of all House Republicans that cast a vote objected to democracy, with Democrats unanimously opposed. The roll call shows that House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy voted to object.
2:15pm Despite the riots, six anti-democratic Republican senators have objected to the certification of the Electoral College. Their names are: Cruz, Hyde-Smith, Kennedy, Hawley, Marshall and Tuberville. Tuberville defeated Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama in November.
12:15pm In a YouGov snap poll on today’s riots at the Capitol, by 62-32 voters saw them as a threat to democracy, but Republicans disagreed by 68-27. Overall, voters thought Trump should be immediately removed from office by 50-42, but Republicans disagreed by 85-10.
12:07pm Ossoff’s lead now up to 0.8% or over 25,000 votes, with more Dem friendly votes left to count.
9:15am Not the most important news today, but US media have CALLED the Georgia regular Senate election for Jon Ossoff, who currently leads Perdue by 0.6% or over 27,000 votes. The Senate will be tied at 50-50, with Democrats making three net gains this election cycle. Kamala Harris will have the casting vote to give Democrats control of the Senate.
7:33am Since the November election, Trump and his henchmen have ranted about how the election was stolen. The violent protests in the US Capitol today are a direct result of these completely unfounded election fraud claims.
7:22am Trump supporters have stormed the US Capitol as Congress was supposed to meet to certify the Electoral College vote. Mike Pence will not attempt to overturn the results, and Mitch McConnell has condemned those who would object.
7:15am Thursday The vast majority of outstanding votes are in Democratic counties, so both Ossoff and Warnock will extend their leads.
9:11pm Ossoff now leads by 0.4% with 98% in. The projection is still for an Ossoff win by 1.1%.
6:24pm Some more of DeKalb is in, putting Warnock up by 1.0% and Ossoff retakes the lead from Perdue by 0.2% or 9.5k votes. The networks and the AP have CALLED for Warnock.
5:37pm Apparently there’s a technical glitch in DeKalb county that is delaying the count of votes that should put Ossoff over the top.
5:30pm A small turnout differential in Democrats’ favour was partly responsible for the result. Also, in November Perdue won by 1.8% while Biden defeated Trump by 0.3% in Georgia. There were a small number of Biden/Perdue voters who this time likely voted Dem.
5:26pm Compared with November, turnout was slightly higher in Biden and Black precincts than in Trump and rural precincts, but not much higher. Overall turnout will be about 90% of November levels.
4:40pm There are still votes remaining in DeKalb, which is only at 91% reported. When those votes report, Ossoff should take and keep the lead.
3:56pm Wasserman CALLS the regular Senate election for Ossoff. That gives Democrats two Senate gains from Georgia, and the Senate is tied 50-50. Kamala Harris will break the tie for the Dems.
3:40pm Perdue and Ossoff almost tied now, with Perdue ahead by a few hundred votes.
3:36pm Perdue’s lead down to just 0.08%.
3:30pm Perdue leads by 0.2% with 95% in, but there’s still more metro Atlanta left, while Rep counties are used up.
3:19pm A big Dem dump reported, and now it’s Warnock by 0.8% and Perdue by just 0.07% with 95% in.
3:10pm Despite a current Perdue lead of 3% with 91% in, the Needle has Ossoff winning by 1.0% with a 92% win probability.
2:56pm With 90% in, Perdue’s margin drops back to 2.6%, and the Needle has Ossoff winning by 1.0% with an 88% win probability.
2:47pm The Needle goes to at most 95% win probability, and Warnock is at that point. After that, it waits for official calls.
2:42pm While Perdue currently leads Ossoff by 3.0% with 87% reporting, the Needle thinks Ossoff will win by 1.0% and gives him an 81% chance to win. There are many more heavily Dem favouring votes yet to report.
2:17pm Ossoff’s win probability up to 76%, while Warnock is at 90%.
2:07pm The Needle has Ossoff’s win probability up to 73%, while Warnock is at 87%. If Ossoff wins, Republicans will be cursing the Libertarian who got 2.3% in November, denying Perdue an outright win.
1:55pm There’s still lots more votes left in Atlanta, which is why the Needle has projected final margins of Ossoff by 1.0% and Warnock by 1.7%, even though both Republicans are currently ahead in the raw vote count. Ossoff’s win probability up to 70%.
1:44pm Wasserman CALLS the Senate by-election for Warnock (D).
1:40pm With 78% in, it’s Loeffler by 0.6% and Perdue by 1.3%. But the projected margins are Warnock by 1.7% and Ossoff by 1.0%.
1:28pm With 69% counted, both Republicans have taken the lead, Perdue by 1.1% and Loeffler by 0.35%. However, there’s lots more votes left in the Dem-heavy Atlanta area, and the projected margins are Warnock by 1.6% and Ossoff by 0.9%.
1:09pm Just had lunch, and there’s been a big narrowing in the Dem leads. With 63% in, it’s Warnock by 0.6% and Ossoff by just 0.04%. However, the Needle is more confident in both Dems, with Warnock projected to win by 1.4% (68% chance) and Ossoff by 0.7% (60% chance).
12:42pm With 49% in, it’s Warnock by 8 and Ossoff by 7. The Needle has Warnock by 1.2% and Ossoff by 0.7%, with both Dems at around 60% win probability. There’s still a lot of election day vote to come.
12:25pm With 42% reporting, Warnock leads by 11 and Ossoff by 10. The Needle has both races tilting Dem, with Warnock up 1.2% and Ossoff up 0.8%.
12:22pm Wasserman has a good result for both Democrats from Washington county.
12:17pm Wasserman says that many very rural, very Republican counties are below 90% of November turnout. We already know that DeKalb will be over 90% of November levels.
12:11pm With 29% in, it’s Warnock by 4 and Ossoff by 3. Warnock has a 60% chance to win, Ossoff 57%.
11:56am Both Democrats up by 12 with 18% in, and both leading on the Needle by 0.5-1.0%. Both races now classes as Tilting Democrat, from Flip a Coin.
11:52am Dave Wasserman tweets that Republicans trail Trump’s numbers by a point or two in Lanier county with only 86% of November turnout.
11:45am Ossoff now up by more than Warnock (6 vs 3) with 11% in. The Needle has both Dems ahead by under 1%.
11:37am With 9% reporting, it’s Warnock by 14 and Ossoff by 12. The Needle still has both Democrats barely ahead.
11:27am Democratic counties are reporting far earlier than in November. It’s currently Warnock by 30 and Ossoff by 27, but the Needle has both Democrats barely ahead.
11am New York Times results available here, with a Needle for both races.
10:30am Looks like good turnout news for Democrats: DeKalb county (83% Biden) is at 90% of November turnout levels with an hour until polls close.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
After the November election, Republicans had a 50-48 lead over Democrats in the Senate. The final two seats, both in Georgia, went to runoffs that will be decided today. If Democrats win both of these contests, they will tie Republicans at 50-50 in the Senate, and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie breaking vote.
The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate has both Democrats moving into slight leads, with Jon Ossoff (D) leading David Perdue (R) by 1.8% and Raphael Warnock (D) leading Kelly Loeffler (R) by 2.1%. Ossoff has gained 0.9% and Warnock 0.3% since Saturday’s article.
Polls in Georgia close at 11am AEDT. In November, the counting was slow in Georgia, with initial results strong for Republicans owing to a rural bias. The suburbs around Atlanta did not start reporting until late on election night.
Concerning tomorrow’s Congressional certification of the Electoral College, all I have to add to Saturday’s article is that at least 12 Republican senators will join Josh Hawley in objecting to the results.
On Sunday, Democrat Nancy Pelosi was re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives, winning 216 votes to 209 for Republican Kevin McCarthy. There were two votes for other candidates. Pelosi needed a majority of all candidate votes. As there were 427 such votes, she needed 214, so exceeded the required majority by two.
WWP – the cynic in me says that Biden secretly wanted to lose in Georgia. That way he can be a do nothing President – with a pretty air-tight excuse.
Big A Adrian @ #200 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 1:09 pm
He didn’t go as hard at the campaign as I would have expected, in the circumstances.
I also think it is a good outcome for Trump.
The repugs need his deplorables.
ABC analysts say there is 80,000 votes (plus military and overseas and a few odds one sods to throw in). So about 100,000 left to vote. Nearly all of the outstanding 80,000 is early votes. Even in red Republican counties this is still a democrat demographic – although close to a 50-50 split. But in democrat counties – this vote is the bluest of the blue vote. I’d say over 75% of the 80,000 votes to count is in democrat urban areas and the democrats can expect to get close to 90% of that vote. Even if the republicans claw back something in the other 20,000 or so military and other votes, they won’t be anywhere near enough.
I’d say Ossoff wins by 20-30,000. Warnock wins by up to 75,000.
Guytaur
Yes, the likely Democratic control of the Senate is huge but the bigger story here may be that Trump’s perceived talisman status within the Republican Party just got blown up.
—————————-
It would be nice to think so but I’m not sure. For starters, for all those who believe his lies about election fraud (~70% of GOP voters according to some polls) it will be no stretch at all to believe that the GA Senate run offs were also stolen by fraud. It seems more likely that Trump will lose that status by attrition and relevance deprivation. Sometime after Jan 20 Trump free days will start happening on mainstream media and they’ll become more frequent as time goes on.
Has the US senate set the rules for this session yet, re: the filibuster and other procedural mechanisms? Or has this been delayed until after the run offs have been resolved?
“Manchin does limit how left things go. However the pundits are exaggerating his influence and downplaying the influence of the left.”
If Manchin were not there the Senate seat would be solidly Republican. Quite apart from any personal conservatism, the Democrats will be very careful to be seen giving him ‘victories’ that he can parlay as effectiveness when he next faces the electorate in 2024.
There is no doubt that left-leaning voters have been energised to vote by leading left members of congress, but those votes, while necessary, are not sufficient to win the Presidency or either house (especially the Senate with its terrible imbalance favouring rural states). The problem is, of course, that swinging centrist voters are also necessary – but not sufficient – to win.
There are some big challenges awaiting the Biden presidency, even if it has control of the House and Senate. Simplistic claims from left supporters that they won it (in one state with an exceptional organiser in Stacy Abrams) belie the reality that the practitioners will face.
Personally, I think Biden and Pelosi and Schumer should make a big show of ‘reaching across the aisle’ and when they are rebuffed they should set out creating a pervasive view that the current Republicans are not interested in anyone but themselves – and certainly not interested in the welfare of the people of the USA, other than their friends and family. It can be done – and it’s underlaid by the truth. But will Biden and co have the smarts?
The same should happen here too. Albo has threatened to go aggro this year – let’s see if he delivers or is a damp squib. One way or the other, Labor is stuck with him until the next election. He won’t be leader of the Opposition again!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #205 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 4:15 pm
Mitch in charge. I have heard it could possibly go for 24 hours+ if every State is objected to that the Repugs want to launch objections about. They have to come back to the Senate Chamber after each objection has been debated, which adds more time to the process.
[‘Ossoff, 33, a former documentary filmaker, would become the youngest person elected to the US Senate in 40 years.
Ossoff’s mother, Heather Fenton, was born and raised in Sydney before moving the US in her early twenties and settling in the Atlanta area.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/senate-control-within-democrats-grasp-as-georgia-races-go-down-to-wire-20210106-p56s3f.html
Warnock’s lead is 35,802; Ossoff, only 1,208 behind.
Mavis @ #189 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 3:55 pm
And the letter all the living Sec Defs sent out.
Expect Scotty from Marketing to make much of the Aussie connection to Ossoff if he wins. 🙄
WeWantPaul @ #197 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 3:06 pm
GOP filibuster. And the Dem House and Senate need to get busy properly investigating Trump (and associates) and ensuring they go away from politics forever. And the Supreme Court is still fucked. And the US covid situation is pretty hopelessly out of control by this point.
There’s still a pandemic on, in case anyone forgot. Not that he’s ever been a big, showy campaigner like Trump (or Obama) anyways. He won the general by being not-Trump, and the democratic Senate candidates won Georgia by being not-Trumpy.
No hard campaign needed. Trump did all their work for them with his neverending tantrum.
This lady from the NYT makes some good points, here’s another one:
18 minutes ago
Jennifer Medina
A win for Warnock would represent a win for the religious left, a group that has tried mightily to assert itself as the religious right has consolidated power in the Trump era.
TPOF
The thing is the right wing Democrats cannot claim the left lost it.
That’s a sea change in itself.
The left has won in the South.
Not by itself but claims of the left being toxic credibility is now zero.
How unsurprisement
Ryan Nobles
@ryanobles
· 9m
RIGHT NOW: @KLoeffler addressing the crowd in Atlanta. She is not conceding. Promised the crowd she would fight to make sure “every legal vote” is counted. And then told the crowd she was heading to Washington to object to the Electoral College vote.
Show this thread
Whether Biden went hard or not, his team’s strategies have paid off big time in both the Election and this Senate run-off.
He’s also put real progress on CC on the agenda and the US will return to being a Super Power. He’s appointed a great number of ethnically and culturally diverse individuals to Senior roles.
So, apart from a process of settling the horses and restoring faith in the political process his agenda of inclusion and restoring US dignity is already on the march.
Biden will of course govern from and for the Centre. Anyone that thought he’d do anything else doesn’t understand US politics or Joe Biden.
Victoria @ #216 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 4:35 pm
The Biden camp bringing the lulz:
In a pointed tweet, Ron Klain, the incoming White House chief of staff, suggested that Senator Kelly Loeffler had hurt her chances in the race against the Rev. Raphael Warnock by aligning herself with President Trump’s efforts to overturn the presidential election. Ms. Loeffler said on Monday that she planned to vote against the Electoral College certification process, joining a chorus of Republican senators in voting to overturn electors for Mr. Biden.
“Spitballing here, but it may be that telling voters that you intend to ignore their verdict and overturn their votes from the November election was NOT a great closing argument for @KLoeffler,” Mr. Klain wrote shortly before 11 p.m.
GG
Remember. Jacinda Ardern is running a Centrist government.
That’s all saying to the left of Obama and the left having more influence is acknowledging.
Sanders did not win and he would have been ruling from the left.
C@tmomma:
Wednesday, January 6, 2021 at 4:25 pm
[‘And the letter all the living Sec Defs sent out.’]
Yep, a not so subtle message to the military brass not to get involved in the election. And I also note that the 100-year-old George Shultz appended his name to what I think was an op-ed in the Washington Post.
What date do the new Georgian senators sit in the Senate?
An example of how the US has moved to the left.
The House has passed decriminalisation of marijuana. The Senate is likely to pass that too.
Biden unlikely to veto it.
Edit: The War on Drugs and the racist incarceration rates associated with it is over.
I am genuinely surprised. And the pollsters who covered this race rather than sitting it out end up recovering some credibility.
Now Biden gets to get his nominations for key roles through without serious fights, as well as having a road to achieve parts of his platform that doesnt require negotiating with McConnell.
He has to do what he can to give effect to his campaign pledges and remain popular so that 2022 doesn’t bring a backlash like 2010 brought Obama. Hopefully he learned from how Obama failed to achieve enough in his first 2 years and failed to put the effort into keeping the public on side.
“ Mitch in charge. I have heard it could possibly go for 24 hours+ if every State is objected to that the Repugs want to launch objections about. They have to come back to the Senate Chamber after each objection has been debated, which adds more time to the process.”
I’m not so interested in how tomorrow’s certification procedure will go.
I’m asking about for the rest of the next two years. Are the democrats stuck with the filibuster and other procedural rules that will slow down the process of doing what needs to be done before the inevitable mid term democrat wipeout happens?
– Extra Supreme Court Justices (if they have the gumption to do it)
– $15 minimum wage – plus some fixation mechanism to build in more increases over time
– climate change legislation
– healthcare reforms
– the Obama trillion dollar plan to rebuild America’s civic infrastructure
And so on. The list is long and there isn’t a moment to waste.
“ Edit: The War on Drugs and the racist incarceration rates associated with it is over.”
You do realise that the real issue relates to meth, right?
AE
The gateway to being criminals being destroyed is what’s happening.
Also don’t forget some states have gone much further.
It’s just an example. You are asking the right questions regarding structural changes. I expect the filibuster and Supreme Court will be addressed along with adding DC and Puerto Rico to statehood.
In reply to Kirky, it appears new Senators Warnock and Ossoff will need to wait until 23rd January at the earliest, to be sworn in. Perdue is no longer a Senator but Loeffler will remain in office until Warnock is sworn in. See https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-georgia-elections-house-elections-26d2fb54639ce1754eefd56b6cc9b091
“ The gateway to being criminals being destroyed is what’s happening.”
No it isn’t. Meth is its whole own problem. There is a problem with it being illegal and hence uses being subject to the same criminal sanctions as dope smokers have been.
But there is the much bigger problem that meth leads to other criminal conduct. Not just property crimes to fuel a habit – but in terms of violent behaviours: often domestic related. Not to mention the terrible consequences of taking meth and operating heavy machinery. Like a motor vehicle.
Then you have to look at the scale of usage.
meth is the problem.
Decriminalising dope simply doesn’t matter much.
AE,
BTW, your “Sleepy Joe” sobriquets directed at Biden seem somewhat redundant and inaccurate.
Care to withdraw the perpetual but inaccurate slurs you threw around during the Biden campaign.
Outsider @ #224 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 4:07 pm
Thanks. This is the bit I needed.
There will be 99 senators until January 23, at which time one Republican Senator will be replaced by a Democrat, and the empty spot will go to another Democrat.
“ Care to withdraw the perpetual but inaccurate slurs you threw around during the Biden campaign.”
Pretty sure I did that back on Election Day when it was clear he’d end up with well over 75 million votes.
Very happy that ‘sleepy Joe’ was exactly the right candidate for 2020 after all. Very happy.
A local wonk tells the issues that won it for the Democrats in Georgia.
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Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
1h
What won Democratic control of the Senate? Take your pick:
– HUGE African-American turnout
– The 125K+ new voters
– Lower relative Republican turnout (maybe driven by Trump’s antics)
– Long-term changes in the Atlanta suburbs
Ossoff now over 3,500 ahead. Not many votes left to count tonight, but I’d expect that lead to go past 10,000 early tomorrow and continue to grow until at least the military vote comes in.
Result!
How surprising
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
Just happened to have found another 4000 ballots from Fulton County. Here we go!
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-senate-election-results/
Interesting chart here. The more that a county voted for Trump on Nov 3, the lower the turnout was today.
Well, he kinda got there (parenthetically). It was Trump’s antics. Full stop.
And also the GOP candidates’ unwillingness to kick Trump to the curb.
Stacey Abrams said earlier that they never took any notice of Trump and focussed on the opposition candidates.
Trump was a distraction at the macro level because that’s what gets reported. We get an awful lot of Trump reporting. But, not from the grass roots local level.
Another example of fight hard locally because that is how you win.
NYTimes called it for Warnock.
Scaramucci saying that, despite appearances, Trump doesn’t believe a word of the “Fraud” bullshit. With evidence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GISXrIyHIN4
Cud Chewer @ #232 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 4:53 pm
So Trumpists didn’t bother voting in a “rigged” election? Happy to take it!
So, by how many does Ossoff need to lead to get above the 0.5% mark?
Ossoff up by over 9.5k. Warnock up by nearly 47k. Loeffler, the Trump looney from Central Casting, is still not conceding and headed for the “rally” in DC tomorrow (their time).
Good times.
BB,
Thanks.
‘Apparently there’s a technical glitch…’
Stop the Steal?
Late Riser @ #242 Wednesday, January 6th, 2021 – 5:19 pm
~22k.
Republican are not good losers….
Do they have to be 0.5% in front (52.5 to 49.75) or 50.5%?
DeKalb absentee vote was larger than expected. Even better!
Give or take, there will be around 4.5 million ballots cast. 0.5% is 22,500, the recount threshold. Warnock is therefore well clear of recount territory; Ossoff needs to pick pick up another 13,000 or so votes to clear the threshold. Both should do it comfortably. On the NYT “needle” projection, Warnock should end up winning by around 85,000 votes and Ossoff by around 50,000.