BludgerTrack 2: electric boogaloo

A newly launched aggregate of federal polling suggests an election that may be coming this year will be closer than commonly presumed — if indeed the polls are to be believed.

As we move into what may very well be an election year, the BludgerTrack voting intention poll aggregate is finally cranked back into action. The model, which naturally picked a fairly comfortable Labor win on the eve of the 2019 election, is not quite what it used to be: there are dramatically fewer data points and less depth available in terms of breakdowns (pollsters have promised more rather than less transparency on this score, but thus far largely failed to deliver), which means there’s no point attempting state-level trends and seat projections as was done before.

Nonetheless, and for what it’s worth, you can now see voting intention trends on the sidebar, and in greater detail here. The lodestar for the model is Newspoll/YouGov: the results of the other pollsters, which really just means Essential Research and the occasional Morgan, are adjusted for bias as measured by the extent of their deviation from a Newspoll trend measure. As it happens though, these adjustments don’t amount to much: over time, none of the three pollsters has shown any particular tendency to favour any one party more than the others.

The trend shows a consistently close race through the current term, somewhat in defiance of media narratives, with Labor poking in front on two-party preferred in the wake of last summer’s bushfires but the Coalition maintaining a lead of around 51-49 for most of this year. This pattern is equally evident in the cruder but probably no less effective aggregate that Kevin Bonham knocked together for his comprehensive view of the year in polling. Part of this may be related to the fact that the new YouGov-administered Newspoll has maintained the pollster’s curious habit of being more consistent than the vagaries of random sampling should theoretically lead us to expect.

I’ve also gone the extra mile on the poll data archive, which now includes all of the expanded breakdown data that Newspoll is now providing in its quarterly aggregates (education, income, language and religion, on top of the traditional state, age and gender) and such two-party state breakdowns as Morgan has provided us, right down to two tiny-sample readings for Tasmania. The leadership ratings trends are still in business, though I’ve bumped them in favour of the voting intention trends on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,232 comments on “BludgerTrack 2: electric boogaloo”

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  1. ABC 3pm news on Radio National opened with a piece on details of the vaccine rollout (belongs in the fiction section at the moment) followed by a very brief reference to the “unrest” in Washington, then playing at length the words of one of the crazy GOP senators.

    Ch 10 5pm news had graphic coverage of Trump’s riots, then showed Morrison downplaying the riots and failing to mention Trump, then Albo with a much more direct condemnation of the happenings.

  2. Socrates, there was no doubt that WP showed enough today. He’s there for the long term.

    Which means we now have ten spots in the team nailed down, IMHO. Number 5 is up for grabs, but Wade’s the right man for now.

  3. And BTW, if your self-imposed ban allows the odd peek at the highlights, you’ll see some images of the crowd. Nothing that really screams “Covid hotspot”, compared to many other places in Sydney today.

  4. Great to see Pucovski away with a 62.

    Huge talent but needs to work on a few technical flaws. He’s got a bit of time now.

  5. China is thriving in the chaos of the US presidential transition

    Hong Kong (CNN)This is shaping up to be a good year for Beijing.

    As the rest of the world continues to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic, China — where infections have been minimal for months now — is pressing on ahead, reviving its economy and pursuing long-held geopolitical goals.

    In recent days, Beijing has struck a major investment agreement with the European Union, one that potentially undermines Washington’s ability to take on China, and launched a major crackdown in Hong Kong, with dozens of activists and lawmakers arrested in a purge that threatens to wipe out the city’s democratic opposition.

    On Wednesday evening, the Global Times, an ultra-nationalist state-run tabloid, ran the headline “Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as ‘Karma,’ say bubbles of ‘democracy and freedom’ have burst.”

    More –
    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/07/china/china-us-hong-kong-transition-biden-trump-intl-hnk/index.html

  6. Socrates @ #4048 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:11 pm

    ….It took Steve Waugh 20 tests to get a century, but he eventually developed a brilliant defence. Point is he was good enough to start with….

    His bowling back then is terribly under-rated now. And the team desperately needed a bowler and a batsman. He balanced a team weakened by rebel tours and not long distant retirements (they were regularly selecting two allrounders to try to make up for a bare cupboard). By his second summer he was averaging up there with the best batsmen in the team.

    FWIW, his test bowling economy rate is better than Cummins.

  7. Washington’s mayor has extended the city’s 6pm to 6am curfew until after President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated on January 20.

  8. citizen @ #4046 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:47 pm

    ABC 3pm news on Radio National opened with a piece on details of the vaccine rollout (belongs in the fiction section at the moment) followed by a very brief reference to the “unrest” in Washington, then playing at length the words of one of the crazy GOP senators.

    Ch 10 5pm news had graphic coverage of Trump’s riots, then showed Morrison downplaying the riots and failing to mention Trump, then Albo with a much more direct condemnation of the happenings.

    Ch10 owned by CBS who are pretty even handed on politics.

  9. Interesting
    Port Waratah (in Newcastle) coal exports down 4% for 2020 but to China by 50%. The gap made up by India and Pakistan.
    Source: NBN3 News

  10. Tao de Haas
    @TaodeHaas
    ·
    2m
    I gave myself permission to take the day off and be glued to CNN. Boy, compared to their political commentators we are really badly served here. With a few exceptions, ours are most vanilla.

  11. GG seems to get his sporting facts wrong. A few weeks ago he claimed that Polly Farmer never played in a premiership-winning team. I invite him to look Geelong’s line-up for its 1963 premiership win.

  12. Pence is running out of time to save himself and act against Trump. He could stretch it out for another 12 hours or so, but then it will be very difficult to escape being cast as “do nothing” Pence. Trump incited the rioters. The rioters attacked the Capitol Building. Trump has every chance to do it again in the 13 days remaining to him. Pence has a diminishing opportunity to crawl out from under.

  13. Lizzie
    A big part of that is because many of their journalists are actually journalists or many of the commentators have worked within the white house and the debate in each party is more diverse so there are differing opinions among conservatives and among progressives.

  14. A majority of Republicans in the House have voted to throw out Pennsylvania’s legitimate electoral college votes despite being certified by the state and backed by all the courts they could take their grievance to.

    The Republican Party is rotten to the core.

  15. SK

    The Republican Party declared themselves hostile to democracy and thus unAmerican.

    That’s what has happened today. As a result I don’t see the party surviving.

    Edit: the reason for my confidence. The Georgia Senate results.

  16. ICYMI

    @SwannyQld tweeted an hour ago.

    The Trumpification of the Liberal Party under Morrison has accelerated as his refusal to condemn Trump and his supporters confirms #auspol

  17. F me. 137 House Republicans have objected to the legitimate vote in PA. Only 64 supported the legitimate vote. So, about 2/3rds of the party just opposed democracy.
    The Repugs. An authoritarian regime in waiting.

  18. “ Interesting
    Port Waratah (in Newcastle) coal exports down 4% for 2020 but to China by 50%. The gap made up by India and Pakistan.
    Source: NBN3 News”

    But

    But

    But

    Cud and Socrates have assured us all – even linking to a numbers of Pollyanna articles and all – that export coal will be dead in Australia ina decade and ergo (P1 chimes in at this point)

    LABOR MUST RAM THAT FACT DOWN COAL MINING COMMUNITIES OR ELSE … something or rather.

    Further (P1 usually takes over at this point), any of us Labor partisans (worse than Trumpians, don’t ya know) who think that perhaps the best thing to do is to actually pledge not to harm any existing mining jobs, but also be frank with mining communities that the writing is on the wall and we must prepare to pivot to other industries … and the back that up with actual plans to exactly that … well … we are just Gibbons. GIBBONS!!! Don’t ya know! Moreover, we risk souring the quinoa in the inner urbs, if we try to like … engage with mining communities in a way that may … I stress the word may … be palatable.

    Further, the seats Labor should as a matter of moral principle give up in the regions by playing exactly into the culture war totem that coal mining is (not just in seats that actually have mines and miners, but more generally in the regions and also the outer burbs these days), will be more than compensated by the wunderwaffe of even more seats to be won in the inner and middle suburbs.

    Or something along those lines.

  19. Greensborough Growler @ 7:01 pm

    Pretty sure that was Sam Newman.
    But, produce the evidence.

    In a discussion of the greatest-ever VFL/AFL footballers you acknowledged that Polly Farmer was an excellent player, but couldn’t be considered to be at the elite level because he had never won a premiership. Maybe you meant to say John (“Sam”) Newman.

    John Newman made his debut for Geelong in 1964 and never won a premiership and, perhaps more significantly, Gary Ablett, despite being a Norm Smith medalist, played in the 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1995 grand finals, being on the losing side every time.

  20. Late Riser @ #4072 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 6:30 pm

    Pence is running out of time to save himself and act against Trump. He could stretch it out for another 12 hours or so, but then it will be very difficult to escape being cast as “do nothing” Pence. Trump incited the rioters. The rioters attacked the Capitol Building. Trump has every chance to do it again in the 13 days remaining to him. Pence has a diminishing opportunity to crawl out from under.

    Another coward. What is it with fundamentalists and cowardice. And they don’t take defeat too well – rocks their little insecure boats. Looking at you Morrison.

  21. Slater was very close to being run out when he was about 10 or 15 with an English player happening to obscure the only available camera angle At the time of the money shot

  22. I wonder if its possible for the US Senate to reconsider the House’s previous impeachment and convict Trump.

    Could be a quick way of getting rid of him

  23. Oakeshott Country @ #4065 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 6:18 pm

    Interesting
    Port Waratah (in Newcastle) coal exports down 4% for 2020 but to China by 50%. The gap made up by India and Pakistan.
    Source: NBN3 News

    If you can access the full article –

    Australia must scramble to escape China trade trap

    Australia has a three to four year window to diversify its customer and export mix.”

    China’s rise as the world’s second largest economy has been a boon for Australian resources companies, agribusiness, universities and tourism operators, but the trade spat has exposed the over-reliance on the north Asian giant as an export market.

    “We need to reduce our dependence on China,” said Corinna Economic Advisory’s Saul Eslake.

    ” [That’s] easier said than done, of course, but in pursuit of ‘the biggest market in the world’ both Australian businesses and governments have neglected ASEAN countries and Japan.”

    Other economists see the Australian dollar providing a buffer if China decides to crank up the pressure on trade.

    “Our economy is flexible enough to adjust. If China does not want our exports we’ll have to find alternate markets, and a likely lower exchange rate – if tensions escalate – will help,” said BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese.

    “China faces bigger risks in that it is damaging its international reputation and I suspect it will try to quietly de-escalate tensions over the coming year.”

    More –
    https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/australia-must-scramble-to-escape-china-trade-trap-20210105-p56ry0

  24. Simon K,

    I believe he is actually a Democrat.

    I saw the CNN interview you mentioned – it was very powerful.

    For whichever poster said, that after seeing that same CNN interview, that it is very obvious that we are poorly served by our press (4th Estate) in Australia, I cannot agree more.

    The CNN anchors in the US showed a fear, distress and passion that I believe is proportionate to the unprecedented* storming of the Capitol by Trump supporters.

    * Alright, it did happen in 1812, but it was by the bloody Brits in the 1812 British / American war, not Americans!!

  25. Watching 7.30 now. They’re interviewing professors, journos. Looking for words… Insurrection? Coup? Treason?

    For me it’s just: “Beerhall Putsch”.

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