As we move into what may very well be an election year, the BludgerTrack voting intention poll aggregate is finally cranked back into action. The model, which naturally picked a fairly comfortable Labor win on the eve of the 2019 election, is not quite what it used to be: there are dramatically fewer data points and less depth available in terms of breakdowns (pollsters have promised more rather than less transparency on this score, but thus far largely failed to deliver), which means there’s no point attempting state-level trends and seat projections as was done before.
Nonetheless, and for what it’s worth, you can now see voting intention trends on the sidebar, and in greater detail here. The lodestar for the model is Newspoll/YouGov: the results of the other pollsters, which really just means Essential Research and the occasional Morgan, are adjusted for bias as measured by the extent of their deviation from a Newspoll trend measure. As it happens though, these adjustments don’t amount to much: over time, none of the three pollsters has shown any particular tendency to favour any one party more than the others.
The trend shows a consistently close race through the current term, somewhat in defiance of media narratives, with Labor poking in front on two-party preferred in the wake of last summer’s bushfires but the Coalition maintaining a lead of around 51-49 for most of this year. This pattern is equally evident in the cruder but probably no less effective aggregate that Kevin Bonham knocked together for his comprehensive view of the year in polling. Part of this may be related to the fact that the new YouGov-administered Newspoll has maintained the pollster’s curious habit of being more consistent than the vagaries of random sampling should theoretically lead us to expect.
I’ve also gone the extra mile on the poll data archive, which now includes all of the expanded breakdown data that Newspoll is now providing in its quarterly aggregates (education, income, language and religion, on top of the traditional state, age and gender) and such two-party state breakdowns as Morgan has provided us, right down to two tiny-sample readings for Tasmania. The leadership ratings trends are still in business, though I’ve bumped them in favour of the voting intention trends on the sidebar.
Greensborough Growler:
Thursday, January 7, 2021 at 4:32 pm
[‘Pence is just another example of Ëverything that Trump touches, die.s”’]
His niece Mary got it right. He’s a sociopath who came close to wrecking the US. Had he won a second term, he may’ve achieved that end. The worry now is that he’ll become even more deranged. I hope someone has re-jigged the nuclear codes.
Victorian Lib Bernie Finn has posted pro-Trump conspiracy theories on his private Facebook site.
“On Wednesday, before the planned congressional confirmation of President-elect Joe Biden, Mr Finn wrote on his private Facebook page that Donald Trump would make history within the next 12 hours for one of two reasons.
He would either “fight off a concerted effort by globalists, big corporations, big media, the Washington Establishment and the mad Left to improperly remove him from the Oval Office”, or he would “succumb to … Deep State forces — but not before exposing the massive corruption undermining the American political system”.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-07/victorian-liberal-bernie-finn-donald-trump-election-posts/13039040
Seriously?? My apology if this was commented on earlier. What has Scomo said about this? Is Bernie Finn supporting a man who is happy for his forces to overthrow an elected government?
Today’s bizarre events have really brought the crazies out of their burrows.
zoomster @ #3976 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 4:07 pm
It would take way more magic than I could ever summon to change your hyper-partisan mind, Z.
C@tmomma
The national guard, or at least troops were out and about fairly early. I saw some live coverage early on from inside the building . The footage showed a number of armed troops moving through the building with pollies and staff milling about.
As for Washington .I got the impression a lot of the calls re police is/was up to the Mayor.
Socrates @ #3999 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 4:42 pm
This is the idiot who could not not ‘work’ on Good Friday, got a pair then came in and voted anyway. Par for this guy. O’Brien should be the one disciplining him. Unfortunately we are in the Upper house district he represents
“Today’s bizarre events have really brought the crazies out of their burrows.”
And that is about the only silver lining I can think of. (Also, you’re being kind by calling the events “bizarre”.)
P1
Changing one person’s mind would be a start.
Must be very depressing, spending so much time on here with nothing to show for it.
a r @ #3985 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 4:12 pm
No. Claiming someone’s view is wrong is not the same as claiming that it is not a legitimate view for them to hold.
zoomster @ #4007 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 4:46 pm
I am guessing this is your expert subject.
Laughtong
The Liberals are so in need of connecting with the western suburbs yet they have Bernie Finn. The guy is a waste of space and has probably cost the Liberals more votes than won.
laughtong
Thanks, so Finn is an opportunist as opposed to a lunatic. I hope Victorian Labor is better at saving such poisoned commentary from opponents to remind voters with at the next election. Upper House creeps are hard to displace, but he must come under internal pressure if his views are likely to damage the election hopes of his peers.
Moi? Phase 1b
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-07/when-will-i-get-coronavirus-vaccine-australia-rollout/13039598
Socrates
The problem is there are no lower house Liberals in Finn’s upper house district.
Despite Scrott and GHunt ‘expediting’ the roll out of vaccination it’s a long haul. Flimflam Man has promised 4 million by end of March vaccinated but slips in an escape clause “dependent on……. and the delivery of the vaccine from suppliers.”
.
.
Professor Brendan Murphy, secretary of the federal Health Department, said nearly half the Australian population would be included in one of the priority groups to receive the vaccine in the first half of this year.
The rest of the general adult population could expect to receive the vaccine from the middle of the year onwards.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300200437/covid19-australia-on-track-to-vaccinate-four-million-by-march
There’s nothing on Bernie Finn MP’s official FB page. He also has/had a private page (the one with the avatar (?) shown in an earlier post here) but that seems to have disappeared. It was up earlier but, again, no post such as reported by the ABC. I imagine he’s getting some stick and gone to ground.
Excellent Albo interview on ABC TV…(Albo needs to wear shades of dark blue ALL the time)
Alternet
“This could have been prevented: Mental health experts were silenced for telling the truth about Trump”
https://www.alternet.org/2021/01/trump-mental-health-2649774598/
poroti @ #3683 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 4:44 pm
The Mayor did call but was rebuffed.
At about 1 hour on The Breakdown with The Lincoln Project on You Tube they explain how the National Guard were asked for even before today by Mayor Muriel Bowser of DC but Trump refused them and then, on the day, it was Governor Larry Hogan and another Governor who volunteered their National Guard to go in.
There was also the FBI who shepherded staffers and others out of the building:
Player One @ #4008 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 3:48 pm
Splitting hairs there. If anything they’re just different degrees of wrongness then.
Like someone can legitimately believe that laissez-faire capitalism is the best solution to every problem. They’d be wrong and likely guilty of taking a hugely superficial view of things in my opinion, but the view is a legitimate one insofar as it hasn’t been tested and proven/disproven.
But asserting that global warming doesn’t exist, or that massive (Democrat-perpetrated) 2020 electoral fraud does, would be expressing a view that’s both wrong and illegitmate. A viewpoint that’s blatantly counterfactual cannot have legitimacy. Falsehoods aren’t granted legitimacy just because a bunch of idiots shove fingers in ears and shout as loud as they can.
Many Republican policy positions are legitimate. Some are not. The Trumpist position on electoral fraud certainly is not, and nobody gains anything by pretending otherwise. Neither side gets to invent their own facts.
My OH asked an interesting question just now. How many of the attackers who penetrated the Capitol Building might have had covid? There wasn’t time to do a deep clean between clearing them out and the Senators returning.
phylactella
Maybe Trump has an illness but his behavior seems to be more of a political strategy meet personally that has for decades become use to getting what he wants and so isn’t use to being answerable and accountable. I’ve said this before but its like his problem is he hasn’t worked under a boss for so long that he doesn’t know how to but his twitter stream can at times be disturbing in its child like insecure ranting at stuff.
At what time will Pucovski bring up a century on debut?
I nominate 6:43pm AEDT.
I see our Girly Cheer Squadder has discovered Wacking Will.
Be prepared to be swooned.
He hasn’t got his eye in yet.
C@tmomma
I saw the Mayor early this morning thanking a number of neighboring areas for sending police to assist. It seems there is a number of ‘mutual aid’ agreements with nearby states. He did not specify the numbers but it sounds like fairly early on there was, or soon to be, a stack of cops …………………………somewhere.
Mexicanbeemer
The worst thing in the world for Trump would be to be labelled a loser. My guess has been that since the election he was working on ensuring the creation of a “he was robbed” myth.
Well, Player One has managed to make it all about them today, as their needy Relevance Deprivation Syndrome symptoms kicked in. Even on a day like today. That’s some powerful narcissism there. Player One was also able to suck various people in, beyond what I would have thought would have been their better judgement. And sadly no amount of pointing out the truth about Player One will shame them into changing their behaviour. They’ll be back again tomorrow to keep feeding the need. Sad.
Greensborough Growler @ #4023 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:06 pm
Who or what is a Girly Cheer Squadder?
Poroti
The thing i’m always mindful off with him is his old saying on the apprentice. Its not personal its business and he does like to see the world as winners and losers and people like that always want to be the winner.
And in the interests of balance….
A nice, cute, cat video
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EJS4hYNngto&t=184s
Spray,
You!
Cats eat native animals. Bah!
When does he get his eye in?
Greensborough Growler @ #4030 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:25 pm
Wow, I have a title now. Cool.
How’s that swoon going?
Portion, I wish I was a gambler. I would put every cent I could lay my hands on Morrison’s escape being enacted. I doubt that their vaccination program will run on time. Bullshit is in their DNA.
a r @ #4019 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:01 pm
No they are not. A view that is held by a person based on their own experience can be legitimate for them to hold but wrong in a wider context. Conversely, it may also be not legitimate for them to hold, but be correct in a wider context.
Failure to understand the difference can explain why it can be difficult to change people’s minds.
SK,
You are so predictably cynical.
Puk now has a test average of 62.
This is a fair base to launch his career.
Simon Katich @ #4029 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:27 pm
Not He was out LBW a few minutes ago
Nice kiss of death, Spray.
Greensborough Growler @ #4035 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:29 pm
He looked pretty good, though nothing like you described. Way too loose for this level, but give him time.
He might not want to depend on getting dropped twice by the keeper every Test innings either.
Republican Dan Kildee now taking a swipe at the Republican traitors who are voting to reject the electoral college votes.
Will they split or kiss and makeup?
Cheers Shellbell.
Steve Smith seems more comfortable coming is at 2/100 plus than 2/ 10.
But, Joe Burns is a bloody good bloke.
SK
I think it’s up to the Democrats to get the Republicans to agree with each other.
P1 has convinced me.
I am not cynical. I think he is tops and I look forward to many more of his test innings for Australia.
Besides, debut hundreds are over-rated. Think Marcus North, Greg Blewett….
There have been reports of allergic reactions to the vaccines. How concerned should you be ? The numbers suggest ‘not very’.
.
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A total of 21 cases of anaphylaxis — none of them fatal — has been confirmed among nearly 1.9 million doses administered, CDC…
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-01-06/severe-allergic-reactions-to-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-are-rare-cdc-says
Simon Katich @ #4043 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:35 pm
Dirk Wellham.
On the other hand, Greg Chappell, Doug Walters….
C@tmomma @ #4026 Thursday, January 7th, 2021 – 5:19 pm
Aww diddums, C@t.
Sean Marsh
I am deliberately boycotting watching hr cricket in protest about the powers that be pressuring the NSW/Federal governments caving in to commercial pressures at the expense of public health.
That being said, if Pukovski has just gotten 62 in his first innings and has a few technical weaknesses in terms of looseness of shots I would still keep him in the team. He has proven he is good enough to play at this level and his defence can be worked on. It took Steve Waugh 20 tests to get a century, but he eventually developed a brilliant defence. Point is he was good enough to start with.
Nothing personal to those dropped but a number of batsmen have been tried in recent years that can hit the ball in T20 but have not shown the temperament to play a long innings at test level. I see no point in going back to them.
Vice President Pence, remove Trump now
(CNN)What more does it take? President Donald Trump has brought the country to depths of division, unrest and instability that once would have been unthinkable — even if they were completely predictable.
The entire world watched aghast as a mob of Trump supporters, whipped into a frenzy by the President’s incitement, stormed the US Capitol, smashing windows, forcing a lockdown and bringing a temporary end to a constitutionally mandated affirmation of President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the November election.
What more does it take?
It’s time for Vice President Mike Pence and the members of the Cabinet to pull the country back from the edge of abyss and remove Trump from office.
Full story –
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/06/opinions/pence-25-amendment-ghitis/index.html