This post delves into wonkish matters arising from last week’s report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters into last year’s federal election, and can thus be seen as a sequel to my earlier post on that subject. That post has a stimulating comments thread that I would like to see continue if anyone has anything to contribute specifically concerning the matters covered in this post. However, the comments thread below this post will serve as the usual open thread for general political discussion, it being past time for a new one.
On with the show. Among the more surprising recommendations of last week’s JSCEM report was the introduction of optional preferential voting. Whereas committee recommendations very often die on the vine, the chances of something becoming of this one shortened last week when both One Nation and the Centre Alliance indicated it would have their support, potentially giving it the numbers in the Senate over the opposition of Labor and the Greens. This prompted me to dig into data from last year’s state election in New South Wales, which offers the most proximate and generally useful pointer to how such a reform would play out at a federal election.
The New South Wales Electoral Commission is the only electoral authority that conducts full data entry of lower house ballot papers and publishes all the data, something the AEC only does for the Senate. The broader utility of this has been limited by the fact of New South Wales’ peculiarity of optional preferential voting, but as noted, there is a chance that may shortly change. I have aggregated this data to determine how each party and candidate’s preferences flowed between the Coalition and Labor, which no one else had done so far as I could see.
For those with a professional interest, this spreadsheet lays it all out seat by seat and party by party — for the lay person, the following table should suffice. It shows the aggregated statewide results from the state election, inclusive of the rate of exhaustion (i.e. voters who availed themselves of optional preferential’s opportunity to number neither Coalition nor Labor boxes), and the equivalent results from New South Wales from the federal election.
The reform’s attraction to the Coalition lies in the 40.0% exhaustion rate for the Greens vote, which split 82.2-17.8 in Labor’s favour federally. That alone would have sliced nearly 1% from Labor’s two-party preferred vote. However, the high exhaustion rate among all other minor parties, whose preferences in aggregate tend to favour the Coalition over Labor (think Hanson, Palmer and the religious parties) would have pared that back by around 0.3%. Such a change would probably have made a decisive difference in Macquarie (which Labor held by 0.2%) and Lilley (0.6%, and with an above-par Greens primary vote of 14.0%), and made life still more uncomfortable in Cowan (0.8%) and Eden-Monaro (0.8%, followed by 0.4% at the by-election).
Vic:
Perhaps. But a federally run facility would’ve been privately managed anyway and likely no different to the hotel quarantine. Unless they did what WA did in the early weeks of the pandemic when returning overseas travellers were quarantined on Rottnest Island, and put people in a remote facility to quarantine.
Fess
I guess. But at the very least it would not have been a political shit show, as happened here in Victoria when things didn’t work out.
The Energy Department and National Nuclear Security Administration, which maintains the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile, have evidence that hackers accessed their networks as part of an extensive espionage operation that has affected at least half a dozen federal agencies, officials directly familiar with the matter said.
Whenever I read stories such as this I muse about what exactly the Russians would do with the data they have stolen? Set off all the nuclear bombs in the US arsenal? Just when Global Heating has increased the amount of land Russia can dedicate to farming why would they want to induce a global nuclear winter?
Chalmers was quite impressive on RN this morning. He certainly knows his stuff but a bit more humour wouldn’t go astray and his defence of Cormann’s job application (but not apparently his travel costs) wasn’t exactly compelling. When dealing with this mob of spivs, Labor should stop playing nice guy/gal.
And in other news, why is it that architects and developers love to ‘erect’ buildings that look like penises!?!
Newcastle, NSW had a 40 metre penis (a.k.a. the Queens Wharf Tower) on its waterfront for a few decades. A local landmark, it was demolished a couple of years ago:
https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/5077958/queens-wharf-tower-to-be-demolished-next-year/
Mavis,
I guess it’s not a problem if you don’t think it’s a problem. 😉
Steve777,
They ran out of building Viagra? 😀
Steve777
That building looks as if it needs a blinking red and green light at the top. Perhaps the architect was traumatised by a lighthouse in their childhood.
Yeah. That’s how this works. People move around (even from the peninsular) and can be asymptomatic spreaders or spreading the virus before their symptoms cause them to go and get tested (if they decide to get tested). That is why you have social distancing, hand sanitation and restrictions on large gatherings even tho you havent had a case for a month. And that is also why you very quickly lockdown or restrict travel from hotspots (if the numbers are large and you need to give tracing time to catch up).
You cant have it both ways. You cant have a leaky system of border controls for the virus AND relax restrictions and precautions to near nothing AND expect to avoid lockdowns if you want to have your cases at or near zero.
But no worries. We have the Covid App and our early mark. So all is well.
The SA Police Commissioner still hasnt used his emergency powers to insist on testing for people flying in to SA from NSW (of which there is now a rush). Nor has he enacted mandatory quarantine for those coming from the Northern Beaches. He is keeping tabs on it tho. Be nice to know what the elected leader of SA has to say about it.
BK @ #1 Friday, December 18th, 2020 – 4:37 am
And here we have the reason why any party that votes to include ISDS clauses in trade agreements is not worthy of your vote.
Luckily, I have been assured, Labor is going to fix all of these issues when they get back into government.
In the meantime…….
C@tmomma:
Friday, December 18, 2020 at 9:06 am
[‘I guess it’s not a problem if you don’t think it’s a problem. ‘]
My psychiatrist tells me that I’m quite well-adjusted to my maladjustment – smiley yellow thing.
Mavis @ #54 Friday, December 18th, 2020 – 9:05 am
‘Labor should stop playing nice guy/gal.’
Exactly.
Or as Penny Wong likes to say..’Labor is being mature..’
Forget mature and ‘professional’ it’s about hearts and minds.
Beating Scrote & Co is the name of the game.
It’s not how you play the game, it’s about winning.
Scrooter is ripe for ridicule.
Let it rip.
Victoria @ #35 Friday, December 18th, 2020 – 8:44 am
No, I think he really is a dickhead.
ABC:
A tight throat from constant anxiety (and trying to avoid the truth) can produce a hoarse voice.
In what should not come as a surprise:
[‘Genomic testing has revealed the Northern Beaches outbreak is an international strain of COVID-19 but authorities still do not know how it got into the community.’]
The reform’s attraction to the Coalition lies in the 40.0% exhaustion rate for the Greens vote, which split 82.2-17.8 in Labor’s favour federally. That alone would have sliced nearly 1% from Labor’s two-party preferred vote.
…illustrating once again that the No Windmills Party is Labor-phobic. A significant share of their supporters assign prefs to Labor because that ensures their votes will be valid. But given the choice, reflecting how much they despise Labor, they will avoid assigning prefs to the whipping boy.
mundo:
Friday, December 18, 2020 at 9:17 am
Yep. Labor needs to release its inner mongrel. With the election predicted in September/October, time is of the essence. I could not cope with another three years of Morrison and his lying, corrupt, incompetent ministers.
From William’s post, above:
‘The reform’s attraction to the Coalition lies in the 40.0% exhaustion rate for the Greens vote, which split 82.2-17.8 in Labor’s favour federally. That alone would have sliced nearly 1% from Labor’s two-party preferred vote. However, the high exhaustion rate among all other minor parties, whose preferences in aggregate tend to favour the Coalition over Labor (think Hanson, Palmer and the religious parties) would have pared that back by around 0.3%. Such a change would probably have made a decisive difference in Macquarie (which Labor held by 0.2%) and Lilley (0.6%, and with an above-par Greens primary vote of 14.0%), and made life still more uncomfortable in Cowan (0.8%) and Eden-Monaro (0.8%, followed by 0.4% at the by-election).’
This goes to the heart of the claims, or false claims, about the electoral benefit or otherwise of the Greens capturing a first vote from Labor and then returning some proportion of that first vote by means of preferences. In totality, judgements about this must be coupled with two other considerations:
(1) The damage, or improvement, done to Labor by Greens’ critiques to Labor’s electoral standing – see, for example, the Adani Convoy.
(2) The damage, or improvement, done to Labor’s electoral prospects by the Coalition’s and the Greens’ capacity to link Labor to the Greens and their policies given that both the Coalition and the Greens make ostentatious efforts so to do.
Why should “diplomatic immunity” prevent quarantining or isolation?
Shellbell at 8.58
That was my point. The word used was ‘explicit’. You seem to have been the one to convert it to ‘exclusive’.
Sydney trains this AM. As a Victorian, I find this bizarre.
Sohar
Agreed
I note that those critiquing Labor politicians for not being ostentatious mongrels continues. What evidence do we have that this works? Trump and Abbott. One trick wonders, IMO.
The most recent example of a politician doing the Trump, doing the Abbott and letting it rip, screaming his head off, and generally cutting the loudmouth caper was that Liberal wannabe in Victoria.
What was his name again?
How did go for him and his party?
I get it that everyone is frustrated that the MSM is largely controlled by the Murdoch Cloud of Omerta. I also get it that a bit of venting would be emotionally beneficial.
But I have yet to see, beyond repeated assertions of the mantra, that shouting and ranting is, electorally, the way to go.
Sohar
They’re following Gladys, who prefers “free choice”!
Sohar:
I find it insane!
‘lizzie says:
Friday, December 18, 2020 at 9:31 am
Why should “diplomatic immunity” prevent quarantining or isolation?’
You can direct perps to leave the country but jailing them and/or prosecuting them is extremely, extremely vexed.
The best course is public shaming of perps. What usually happens is the national owners of the perp diplomats pull them back home in what would generally be considered a career-limiting event.
It will be interesting to see the media treatment of the NSW Government and Premier differ from those of Victoria during their outbreak. We don’t yet know how the NSW outbreak started, although it seems to be from overseas. It may be a leak from hotel quarantine. It may have been an overseas returnee leaving a queue at the Airport and going home, then going on a pub crawl.
Morrison’s national responsibility for quarantine has fallen down again. At yet another a bad news quarantine crisis moment, Morrison repeats the Hawaii Gambit: he’s off to the beach.
That leaves the open question of whether he will be noshing it up with father and son Houston while there.
Steve777
They’ll get a free pass.
“I note that those critiquing Labor politicians for not being ostentatious mongrels continues. What evidence do we have that this works? Trump and Abbott…”
It’s tempting, and I do think that Labor should be attacking more – it’s not as if there is a lack of stuff to attack on. However, Labor doesn’t have the mainstream media onside including a major media organisation prepared to actively campaign for it and echo and boost its attacks, including lies. Abbott-style wouldn’t work for Labor. It has to find another way.
boerwar @ #NaN Friday, December 18th, 2020 – 9:37 am
+1
It’s as if Labor election wins in the NT, Queensland and the by-election in Eden-Monaro don’t count for nuffin!
You have to give moano points for persistence though. Every day he fronts up for work to attempt to suck the rubes in. My faith is still in Tim Gartrell to know what he’s doing. Don’t forget Scotty from Catchy Catchphrases’ support is ‘brittle’ and Labor are within striking distance(as Abbott used to say), at 51-49.
The media response will depend on whether the outbreak can be locked down quickly with few cases and deaths.
This is the, so far, very effective NSW track and trace response’s big challenge but they are professional clinicians, with a lot of experience now and can use police and ADF resources.
The media response to Victoria wasn’t just bias, it reflected chronic underfunding of public health which allowed what should have been an easily controlled outbreak to become a disaster
Will we see daily pressers from Gladys, will she answer all and every question? Will Rachel and Peta be there firing off as many questions as possible? Will Hazzard be thrown under the bus, will there be an inquiry?
Most importantly, does Gladys have a Northface Jacket?
Meanwhile in Victoria:
TPOF
“Shellbell at 8.58
That was my point. The word used was ‘explicit’. You seem to have been the one to convert it to ‘exclusive’.”
No
I apologise to Mr Morrison This time he has actually “appointed” a Deputy.
But he won’t be idle.
O, for goodness sake! This is an old Liberal furphy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-set-to-refresh-frontbench-ahead-of-covid-recovery-agenda-20201217-p56ohk.html
The incompetence in NSW by the federal and state Libs/nats
Ruby princess
Aged care mishaps
Hotel quarantine mishaps
Airport Mishaps
International travellers mishaps
Has not happen just once or twice but many more times than other states/territories
Alpha Zero
One thing Gladys does have and has nailed is the worried, concerned look.
Just a little rewriting of history going on. I don’t recall much media focus on systemic, long-term problems in the Victorian health system. Nor do I recall a whole lot of objective analysis from the media. I do recall a lot of focus on directly linking the virus’ escape (before we even get to talking about its spread from thereon) from the quarantine hotels with Andrews.
Some people *here* may have been concerned about systemic problems with the Victorian Health system, chronic underfunding, etc, but let’s not confuse the concerns of those people with the concerns of the media in general.
I remember Mark Latham had a bit of outrageous mongrel.
That worked out well!
With Federal quarantine, i am very glad that they were not involved.
The quarantine has largely been a public health and clinical issue and since the disposal of the Repatriation hospitals, the number of commonwealth doctors and nurses has been very small. The commonwealth no longer has the infrastructure for a major public health response but the states do.
Someone has argued the response should be outside population centres. So all we need in NSW is accomodation for 6000 isolating people with an associated teaching hospital and accommodation for about 15,000 clinical, security and other staff about 50 kms from Dubbo. Gladys is obviously negligent for not providing this.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Friday, December 18, 2020 at 9:52 am
The media response will depend on whether the outbreak can be locked down quickly with few cases and deaths.
This is the, so far, very effective NSW track and trace response’s big challenge but they are professional clinicians, with a lot of experience now and can use police and ADF resources.
The media response to Victoria wasn’t just bias, it reflected chronic underfunding of public health which allowed what should have been an easily controlled outbreak to become a disaster’
Is the important political thing in relation to the NSW disaster to link the wonders of NSW health system compared with the Victorian health system?
IMO, priority in the discussions about the NSW disaster should be:
1. The repeated lack of national accountability for quaratine by Morrison.
2. The adequacy or otherwise of quarantine arrangements surrounding returnees, diplomats and flight crew in NSW.
3. A lack of sufficient testing in NSW.
4. The propensity, particularly among Federal right wing politicians, and in particular Morrison, when it comes to downplaying the risks associated with
Oh, and who the fuck cares, really, about Murdoch’s instructions to his media wage slaves in relation to this matter?
Let’s hope that the delicate and complex management balance between the human rights implications and public health outcomes as mediated by a draconian shut down as opposed some vacuous ‘urgings’ play out well for us all.
I wish Ms Berejiklian 100% success in relation to their efforts at suppressing the latest outbreak and I wish Mr Morrison 100% success in preventing any repetition of national quarantine failure.
‘poroti says:
Friday, December 18, 2020 at 9:56 am
Alpha Zero
One thing Gladys does have and has nailed is the worried, concerned look.’
Yep. I would hate to be Ms Berejiklian right now. I genuinely hope she gets on top of this crisis ASP.
Most of the media may not have investigated the structural issues that made the Victorian response so bad, after all that would require going the next step, but my recollection was that most of the criticism was directed at the rapidity of spread and the government paralysis over about a week.
I remember Mark Latham had a bit of outrageous mongrel.
So did Paul Keating. His was more directed. It worked for a while. but those were different times.
Most of the media was focused on how it escaped, and whether Dan Andrews personally had anything to do with it.
I must be reading/watching/listening to the wrong media :-P.
Yep. I would hate to be Ms Berejiklian right now. I genuinely hope she gets on top of this crisis ASP.
We all do, especially those of us in Sydney. Apart from the risk of people getting sick, lots of Christmas and holiday plans are now up in the air.
With great regret, I have just cancelled my digital subscription to The Age. I have been reading it for 60 years but I can no longer respect it.
I hung on because it used to provide Victorian State news, which obviously the Sydney-centric outlets don’t. However, that has also disappeared.
The last editor whom I admired was Bruce Guthrie. There may be some talented journalists still on board, but the lack of balance is now too obvious for me to ignore. A great newspaper, gone for ever.
In relation to mongrel, the Coalition has this pretty well sorted out.
Mongrel is displayed by their mavericks.
The usual public response is either total silence or a bit of mil tut tutting by McCormack and Morrison
But there is tacit permission for the mavericks to make signals to select target groups about what the Coalition really stands for.
Mr Christensen’s public efforts are a classic. The Left’s fulminations about the likes of Mr Christensen are a valuable aid to the Coalition and to Mr Christensen whom, I seem to recall, did quite well in the last election.
The mongrel on the Left is handled less well. Who can forget the pleasure that the ‘Earthians’ gave to the Right? Other examples of Left Mongrel were holding public demonstrations while people were being burned to death in the Fires and holding demonstrations about how Black Lives Matter when the behaviour of some of the demonstrators increased the risk to black lives from virus infection.
Finally, when it comes to mongrel, the Left’s large gift to the Coalition is its treatment of Ferguson.
Instead of embracing Ferguson’s suggestion that Labor politicians should visit rural and regional workplaces the Left excoriated Labor’s current maverick.
Spot where the Right are as smart as sewer rats electorally and where the Left in both Labor and the Greens are rope-a-dope electoral dummies.