Essential Research: leadership ratings, foreign and industrial relations

Some gloss comes off Scott Morrison’s still impressive personal ratings, and respondents prove broadly favourable to the government’s handling of disputes with China.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, which is presumably the last of the year, features the pollster’s monthly-or-so leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is down four on approval to 62%, his weakest result since April, and up three on disapproval to 28%; Anthony Albanese is up three on approval to 43% and down four on disapproval to 29%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 50-24, narrowing from 53-24.

As it does at the end of every year, the pollster asked respondents if they felt it had been a good or a bad year for various actors, which produces appropriately extraordinary results, particularly so for the Australian economy (a net rating of minus 47%), small business (minus 43%) and “the average Australian” (minus 32%). However, the minus 7% result for “Australian politics in general” was quite a lot better than any recorded over the previous seven years.

Respondents were also asked if Australia’s relationships with various foreign players should become more or less closer, or remain the same. This produces a notably negative result for China, with 49% wanting a less close relationship, 15% more close and 20% the same. Closer relationships are generally desired with, in descending order, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Sixty-two per cent considered Australia “the innocent victim of Chinese assertion in restricting trade on certain products, but a non-trivial 38% felt Australia had “made itself a target by publicly criticising the Chinese government”. Fifty-six per cent felt Scott Morrison was right to demand an apology from the Chinese government over the recent Twitter spat, leaving 44% of respondents (the smart ones) favouring the alternative that he “should have let the issue be handled
through diplomatic channels”.

A question on the federal government’s proposed workplace relations reforms finds 52% expecting they will favour employers and businesses, 17% that they will favour employees, and 31% that they will strike a balance between the two. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1071.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

844 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, foreign and industrial relations”

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  2. WA placing quarantine for NSW visitors. See Guardian (sorry, copy&paste not working for me) 🙁
    WA requires NSW visitors to isolate and test

    Western Australia has introduced a new requirement for anyone who arrived from NSW since 11 December to immediately isolate and get tested for Covid-19 in the next 24 hours.

    Anyone arriving after this point will need to get tested on arrival and isolate.

  7. Spray @ #648 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 5:53 pm

    Simon Katich @ #635 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 5:52 pm

    Spray, I once long ago did some work for the Ulmarra bypass that never happened. Putting it through the local dairy farmers property (Collins?) who also happened to be a local ex Country Party President didnt help their cause and made my job…. interesting.

    We stayed in Maclean and I dont remember anything about it. We drank in Yamba and I wont forget it. Had a couple of great nights. On the second a local lad wasnt happy that we were playing pool and going night swimming with a local lass (and other lasses and lads!) and he told the local police I had owned up to something terrible relating to a recently missing person. Thankfully the copper knew what was going on.

    Ulmarra’s well and truly by-passed now, of course, but coincidentally I had probably my first ever Ulmarra Pub lunch last week. Like so many of these by-passed towns, they’ve tapped into their strengths in a bid to survive via tourism. In Ulmarra’s case, it’s a bit of an historic flavour, as well as making the most of the idyllic river setting.

    As for drinking at the Fountain on the Mountain, I could have warned you that it might not end well. Those Yamba locals are a funny breed of cattle.

    BTW, I presume the night swim was the time-honoured tradition of a skinny-dip in the Blue Pool at Angourie?

    What happens on tour….
    We handled ourselves OK. Drinking at new country pubs is something we got good at. Only ever once neared a fight and that was the Brunswick Hotel. But we had two kiwis with us that time so…. blame them.

  8. Northern Beaches cluster grows to 17

    People north of the Spit Bridge to Palm Beach in northern Sydney are being told to stay home after the Northern Beaches cluster increased from 6 to 17.

    Multiple outlets are reporting there have been 12 new cases this afternoon. (Guardian)

  13. Rex

    The wedge encourages voters who might otherwise vote Labor to vote Green.

    The ones who were going to vote Labor and vote Green then preference Labor.

    Net result: get the voters back and there’s no difference to Labor’s 2PP.

    Getting someone who was going to vote Coalition to vote Labor improves Labor’s vote, full stop.

  20. Talking about new road works, how about this traffic roundabout at an intersection 187m below the ocean?

    I have read about the various traffic tunnels in the Faroe islands, including some undersea tunnels but this is something else again.

    Underneath the North Atlantic Ocean lies a series of sub-aquatic tunnels, connecting the rugged islands that comprise the northerly Faroe Islands archipelago.

    The soon to be opened Eysturoy tunnel network has already caused a splash, thanks to newly released photos of its center point — a striking new underwater traffic circle: illuminated, turquoise-blue and some 187 meters under the sea.

    The lights, colors and ethereal design makes the structure look otherworldly.

    The 11-kilometer-long tunnel will likely be a welcome development for locals, shortening the 64-minute drive from Tórshavn — the capital of the Faroes — on the isle Streymoy, to the hubs of Runavík and Strendur, on the isle of Eysturoy, to just 16 minutes.

    And for tourists, the dazzling traffic circle could become yet another reason to visit this Danish autonomous territory, already known for beautiful scenery and wildlife.

    https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/eysturoy-tunnel-roundabout-faroe-islands/?hpt=ob_blogfooterold

  23. Victoria @ #663 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 5:40 pm

    Yes channel nine news confirmed now 17 positive cases

    Hmm. It went from 1 to 17 very quickly. It’s a bugger we have to see an actual outbreak to be reminded how incredibly infections this virus is. I’m in Brisbane. I haven’t seen a face mask in public in weeks and my local library is the only place I go that still takes names at the door. I know health is a state responsibility, but perhaps we need a national awareness campaign on covid safety?

  24. NSW still has to submit our name, address and phone number, or use the QR Code app to sign in if you go to a restaurant, pub or other licensed venue like a club.

  28. Looks like NZ has made a dramatic economic recovery (and hasn’t depended on high iron ore prices like Messrs M & F).

    The news [regarding vaccination forward planning] came as New Zealand’s economy rebounded in the September quarter, growing 14%. Stats NZ said on Thursday the growth was the strongest quarter in New Zealand’s modern history, coming off the back of an 11% drop in the June quarter.

    Finance minister Grant Robertson said the rise was in line with Australia’s recovery and beyond those in the United Kingdom and Japan. “The economic bounceback is a result of our decision to go hard and early during the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said.

    The economic U-turn was widely predicted given the timing of New Zealand’s hard 51-day lockdown from March to May.

    Robertson also said unemployment was set to peak at 6.9% at the end of 2021, rather than the 7.8% predicted in September.

    “The government’s decision to act quickly in response to the global Covid-19 pandemic has contributed to a better than expected economic recovery,” Robertson said. “While New Zealand’s economy contracted in 2020, it is forecast to rebound strongly in 2021, outperforming regions we compare ourselves to like the euro zone, the United Kingdom and Japan.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/17/ardern-unveils-new-zealand-covid-vaccine-deals-as-economy-rebounds

  29. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, December 17, 2020 at 6:31 pm
    zoomster @ #652 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 6:29 pm

    Rex

    Labor doesn’t gain by the Greens being in trouble. They need to beat the Coalition.

    Getting Green votes won’t help there.
    You struggle with politics don’t you.

    No Greens – No wedge.

    Yes. The No Windmills Party would do everyone a great service if they were to dissolve themselves.

  32. Am I the only person who thinks Catherine King would be a good leader for the ALP? Quite relatable, actual cabinet experience, 19 years in the parliament, represents a regional seat. Midway up the shadow cabinet seniority list. Can speak strongly and directly.

  33. C@tmomma @ #668 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 6:43 pm

    Spray @ #658 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 6:37 pm

    As I may have said earlier, Fuck!

    Hope your wife hasn’t been dancing in the mosh pit at Avalon RSL, Spray! 😆

    I do hope she’s okay though. 🙂

    Thanks C@t. We actually both got tested, mainly because she wanted some company in the queue. Turned out to be a very efficient process at Northern Beaches Hospital, and the staff were charming and professional. Bit of a tickle up the nose and away you go. (Think you got tested earlier in the year right?)

    As I said earlier, we’re not concerned at all, just following the process. But now we’re in for a bit of a siege. Will miss all the usual Christmas outings, and sadly a big 30th for my autistic nephew tomorrow.

  35. The bottom line is, Labor needs to convert people who voted Liberal and National. These people, at least those turnable, would have mostly voted for their wallets. Labor needs to have a message for them. There would also be some “turnable” Coalition voters who voted on “cultural” issues against their economic interests. Labor needs to tune its message – what to talk about, what not to talk about – according to who it’s talking to. It’s a matter of what to emphasise, know your audience. It shouldn’t involve contradiction or insincerity. You don’t talk about agricultural policy in Balmain. You don’t talk about gender equity in Oonagalahbee.

    I couldn’t give a stuff whether or not Green voters convert to Labor. They are not the enemy.

  36. I am a fan of Ged because she always presents professionally and comes across as sincere but i don’t see her becoming ALP leader. The only women i can see becoming leader at this stage is Clare O`Neil but if Ged was somehow able to become leader then i could see her being popular.

  38. ajm
    Catherine King could be leadership material and she has done well to turn her marginal seat into a safe seat and is now one of the longest serving MP’s for a Ballarat based federal or state electorate in that city’s history.

  44. BK @ #711 Thursday, December 17th, 2020 – 7:37 pm

    This outbreak in Sydney could get pretty ugly pretty quickly.

    It already has. Mask up. If this is a point source outbreak from an imported strain that spread via the Avalon RSL 5 days ago (which is possible), then it may stay contained, like the Parafield outbreak within a week. If the 17 are iceberg tips and the virus has escaped the insular peninsular, then Christmas is going to be difficult in NSW. My mother is in an RCF in Mona Vale. Much depends on the genomics.

  45. Peta Credlin is an interesting one because if she was in the ALP then a safe seat would already be lined up but either Credlin hasn’t decided to make that jump or the Liberals are too useless to organise one or would she take the risk of running in a winnable state seat the Liberals should win like Hawthorn but then she would be wasted at state level.

  48. Mb

    I don’t think Credlin is that popular with the Libs, remember that Abbott was allowed to stay as PM as long as he got rid of her.

  49. I believe that Labor would have a strong front bench in government, much more capable and intelligent than the current set of grifters, but they need an inspiring leader to throw pixie dust in the eyes of the voters to beat Scotty.

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