The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds 67% rating the federal government’s COVID-19 response as good, unchanged on a fortnight ago, with the poor rating down two to 13% – its strongest net result in this regular series since June. The small sample state breakdowns find the South Australian government’s positive rating down six to 70%, which I believe is the lowest it has yet recorded, although it might not pay to read too much into that given the near double-digit margin of error. The results for the other four mainland state are all up by one point: to 76% for New South Wales, 60% for Victoria, 72% for Queensland and 83% for Western Australia.
Respondents were also asked about their level of interest in various news stories: 69% said they were closely following the COVID-19 outbreak in South Australia, against 31% for not closely; 66% likewise for COVID-19 vaccine trials, and 34% for not closely; 56% closely for Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn his election defeat, with 44% for not closely; and 53% closely for war crimes allegations against Australian soliders, against 47% for not closely. The poll also found 37% felt the government spent too much on foreign aid, down four points since 2017, with spends too little steady on 16% and the right amount up four to 23%. Also featured was a series of detailed questions on climate change and coal-fired power plants, which you can read all about in the full report. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1034.
In other news, Antony Green peruses the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ report recommending action to preserve the Northern Territory’s second House of Representatives seat, which otherwise stands to be lost based on the territory’s share of the national population. Significantly, he notes that the proposed removal of an existing tweak to the calculation that was added to help the Northern Territory get over the line back in 2004 now stands to cost the Australian Capital Territory the third seat it gained at the last election – perhaps explaining why the government has been so sanguine about preserving Labor-held seats in the Northern Territory.
The change in 2004 made use of the margin of error the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides for its population estimates for the territories, requiring that the figure at the top end of the range be used in making the determination. Whereas the most recent determination credited the ACT with 2.55 quotas, rounding up to three seats, it would have only have been 2.48 if the ABS’s straightforward estimate had been used. There is no suggestion of changing the existing determination to cost the ACT its third seat at the next election, but a significant growth in population would be needed if the third seat was to be preserved at the next election after.
Antony Green’s submission to the inquiry suggested that, in addition to giving the territories a minimum of two seats, the calculation be made not on the basis of the garden variety arithmetic mean, but on the harmonic mean, which would be less prone to rounding down for the territories and smaller states. This method has the virtue of producing “an allocation of seats with a population per member closer to the national quota than the arithmetic mean”. The committee – apparently including the four Labor and one Greens members as well as the five from the government, since there was no dissenting report – acknowledged the logic of this but cited “problems with the potential for public acceptance”
Mention should also be made of Saturday’s by-election in the regional Queensland seat of Groom, which did nothing to alter its complexion as a safe seat for the Coalition. The LNP candidate, Garth Hamilton, currently has 66.9% of the two-party preferred vote with only a handful of votes outstanding, representing a 3.6% swing to Labor Œ more or less the same size of the swing in the Longman by-election that did for Malcolm Turnbull in 2018, though on that occasion his critics could point to a 9.4% drop in the LNP vote as One Nation surged to 15.9%. The One Nation factor went untested on this occasion, since the party did not field a candidate, although the party’s performance in the recent state election suggested they would only have done a limited amount of damage.
Of perhaps more note than the result is the pattern of turnout in the second by-election held during COVID-19 (the first being in Eden-Monaro only July 4): election day turnout was down 21.3%, from 53,943 to 42,490; pre-poll voting centres were up 0.8% from 25,169 to 25,380; and there have so far been 11,966 postal votes counted, compared with 14,108 at the 2019 election. Voter fraud fans may care to note that the LNP did better on election day votes (a 2.7% swing to Labor) than pre-poll votes (a 4.0% swing) and, especially, postal votes (a 7.3% swing).
Mavis @ #2346 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 12:36 pm
Does his message change?
Shellbell @ #2350 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 3:39 pm
I played against him when he was only about 47 Shellbell.
Also got belted into unconsciousness at that lovely ground. Not by him though.
The Age
One of two main international credit ratings agencies has downgraded its view of Victoria’s credit-worthiness, saying the state’s ‘substantial and prolonged lockdown’ had left it in more fiscal trouble than the rest of Australia.
________________
Cain/Kirner here we come.
Greensborough Growler @ #2345 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 3:36 pm
You have daughters don’t you? Hope they never have to put up with this level of fuckwittery.
How Nine/Fairfax treats the news according to political leanings:
S&P has downgraded Victoria’s rating from AAA to AA, and NSW rating from AAA to AA+. Both items reported in the Guardian.
Age landing page has Victoria as the main item on the landing page. SMH nothing on NSW that I can see.
Taylormade
It is over for Morrison and his cronies if they are trying to introduce an updated version of work choices
Taylormade,
Your selective quoting makes you look like an idiot.
“NSW’s AAA credit rating drops
Shortly after the Victorian announcement, S&P’s has also downgraded New South Wales from AAA to AA+.
(A reminder that interest rates for borrowing will remain pretty much the same.)”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/dec/07/australian-politics-live-coalition-question-time-parliament-victoria-nsw-ease-coronavirus-restrictions?page=with:block-5fcda4248f0861e6ffe1d7cd#block-5fcda4248f0861e6ffe1d7cd
Spray,
Everyone loves the Wizrd of Oz.
Is there something wrong with you?
Ah yes, predictably, here come the desperate deplorables hurling their abuse and attacking the left whilst pretending to be leftists. What a joke.
Remember people, you should be angry about being brainwashed – that is a good thing – you’re just directing your anger at the wrong person. I’m not the one who backed Bush and got millions of people killed.
Rex Douglas:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 3:35 pm
[‘I have no issue with childcare assistance. None at all. The current levels of assistance are completely fine and worthwhile.’]
That’s just the thing, the current policy ain’t ‘fine and worthwhile’. It’s not financially viable if, say, the mother (or father) of two young children place them in care for more than three days a week. Labor, on the other hands, plans to make child-care more equitable:
https://theconversation.com/labors-childcare-plan-may-get-more-women-into-work-now-what-about-quality-and-educators-pay-147755
‘The GOP is now simply a cauldron of writhing resentment and paranoia’: conservative columnist
Conservative Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin called it fitting that President Donald Trump’s campaign is going out the way it was ushered in: with misery. While Trump came into power with a flood of anger and division, he’s leaving in the same way. This time, however, he may be taking the GOP with him.
“Aside from the courts that he amply stocked with right-wing judges, Republicans can point to no benefit derived from his four years in office but plenty of damage,” wrote Rubin. “Trump leaves behind a dumpster fire: a net loss of more than 3 million jobs and hundreds of thousands of dead Americans.”
“No longer animated by a positive vision or policy ideas, the GOP is now simply a cauldron of writhing resentment and paranoia — a party that survives by spinning a web of lies and terrifying its own voters,” closed Rubin
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/12/the-gop-is-now-simply-a-cauldron-of-writhing-resentment-and-paranoia-conservative-columnist/
Oxymoron.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 3:43 pm
The Age
One of two main international credit ratings agencies has downgraded its view of Victoria’s credit-worthiness, saying the state’s ‘substantial and prolonged lockdown’ had left it in more fiscal trouble than the rest of Australia.
________________
Cain/Kirner here we come.
And we have morrisons inability to control the borders and manage private retirement villages to thank for that.
Victorian government debt 44 billion
Federal government debt 684 billion.
Go away with the bullshit.
phoenixRED @ #2361 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 2:50 pm
The GOP are leaderless at the moment. The senate run off in Georgia is a window into their confusion. Georgia is the state that keeps on giving. I hope it has one last gift for us.
Firefox
What are you on about?
They haven’t let the public into Drummoyne Oval, and a smattering of diehards are perched up on the hill underneath the Moreton Bay figs looking through the fence.
Cameron Green looks a solid batsman in the making
frednk @ #2365 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 12:58 pm
He’s just shouting at the clouds again.
Super spreader Giuliani.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/just-how-much-of-a-mess-has-rudy-giuliani-made/34649/
Who is next?
sprocket,
200cm tall and scores centuries at 6. Also bowls at 150kph.
I reckon they could find a spot for him in the team in the future after Mitch Marsh retires.
sprocket
So calm. If you averaged out Green’s level of fidgeting with Steve Smith’s, you would barely have someone hyperactive
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/11/09/safe-harbor-deadline-election-vote-count-postelex-coates-nr-vpx.cnn
Perhaps this is why Giuliani kept soldering on, no matter the cost to himself and everyone around him.
Taylormade says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 3:43 pm
The Age
One of two main international credit ratings agencies has downgraded its view of Victoria’s credit-worthiness, saying the state’s ‘substantial and prolonged lockdown’ had left it in more fiscal trouble than the rest of Australia.
________________
Cain/Kirner here we come.
———————-
Taylormade
very different because Cain/Kirner lost control of the state and its finances but that is not the case with Andrews because the debt is going towards helping the economy and building future assets.
Is there a LibSpill on in Victoria? Does anybody care?
‘The Victorian Liberals will meet in person tomorrow for their partyroom meeting after a small band of members demanded it not go ahead virtually. Tensions expected to run high, with some frustrated MPs desperate to face off with leader Michael O’Brien. #springst
Costello’s AFR has both Victoria and NSW downgraded with a picture of Glady.
[‘Washington: US Attorney-General William P. Barr is considering stepping down before President Donald Trump’s term ends next month, according to three people familiar with this thinking. One said Barr could announce his departure before the end of the year.
It was not clear whether the attorney-general’s deliberations were influenced by Trump’s refusal to concede his election loss or his fury over Barr’s acknowledgment last week that the Justice Department uncovered no widespread voting fraud. In the ensuing days, the President refused to say whether he still had confidence in his attorney general.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/william-barr-said-to-be-mulling-an-exit-before-trump-s-term-ends-20201207-p56l9l.html
sprocket_
If there is a spill it will be up there with WA Lib’s Liza Harvey losing the job as an “If a tree falls in a forest…….” event.
Socrates says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 1:20 pm
This story is another good initiative by WA premier McGowan on building an electric vehicle (EV) charging network in WA. It will be needed to have any chance of meeting Paris climate change targets.
This is directly related to the party platform, adopted without dispute at the most recent State Conference. Labor’s grassroots committee was responsible for this policy, now being implemented by the MacGowan government.
Apparently Bridget Archer (Tas) abstained, so she didn’t quite disobey Morrison.
Very disappointing that Steggall & Sharkie voted with the Liberal Party.
frednk @ #1926 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 3:24 pm
Yes, I will clear the cache.
No, I don’t have an Ad Blocker anymore but I still have the problem nevertheless.
ps I love engineers! 🙂
lizzie @ #1969 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 4:47 pm
And people here like Rex Douglas, say we should have more Independents!
No thank you!
Steggall and Sharkie ARE Liberals underneath their ‘Independent’ skin though at the end of the day.
lizzie @ #1967 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 4:43 pm
Hmm, Jaquie Lambie has her electorate office in Bridget Archer territory in Tasmania, doesn’t she? She’s also been on welfare payments herself.
That’s 1 vote I think.
The value of Liberal aligned Independents to Labor is that the LNP needs to devote money and time resources to winning seats they should really own anyways during an Election.
Labor can prop them up in areas of policy that suit Labor and might almost preference them if they play nicely.. But, Labor is under no delusions that the Independents will support them in a real crunch.
Awww… *sniff*
It doesn’t matter how Sharkie and Steggall voted on the indue card because the state can already place people under financial management but that also is why the card is a waste of time and money.
Cam Green batting himself in to the Australian Test Team atm. 94no.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/19846/game/1237425/australia-a-vs-indians-tour-match-india-in-australia-2020-21
Just saw PatsKarvelas interview Patrick. He’s very torn as he said he can see evidence in both sides for keeping the card in Ceduna (he visited there to find out).
Firefox says:
Monday, December 7, 2020 at 3:48 pm
Remember people, you should be angry about being brainwashed …
FF Wins…..Sorest Loser Gong.
Lib/Lab trying hard to make parliament even more moribund than it already is
Nothing brings together the Lib/Lab duopoly like anti-democratic measures and stifling debate
via Guardian
The bells are going absolutely off in the Senate – a senate watcher has let me know that the Coalition and Labor are voting together to cut the number of motions cross benchers and minor parties can bring.
That gives them a majority. And means the five crossbenchers and the Greens will have to share a limited number of motions between them. That cuts down the time the senate will spend on motions, but also means that a lot of issues won’t get airtime.
Ain’t bipartisanship grand.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/dec/07/australian-politics-live-coalition-question-time-parliament-victoria-nsw-ease-coronavirus-restrictions
Kakuru @ #2327 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 3:05 pm
In my understanding, an oronym is a word that sounds exactly like another word, like bare and bear, or hare and hair, or rort and wrought, or taught and tort, or fort and fought, or ruff and rough, or bow (bend from the waist, not knot) and bough, or blue and blew, or or and ore.
Bin chicken sounds somewhat like Berejiklian (well, sort of). People didn’t know how to pronounce her name, and decided that it was easier, and funny, to say bin chicken. Subsequently, cartoonists picked up on this, and started to imply that her behaviour was somewhat bin-chicken-like by representing her as that beautiful, graceful, fastidious bird, which of course, was a disgraceful, vicious calumny of said bird. Some nasty ones might have swerved into nasal territory. You may think that, but I couldn’t possibly comment.
With regard to ‘mondegreen’, I can’t say that I have come across either Berejiklian or bin chicken in a song, but I suppose I could have a try at composing one.
Labor really has become a protection racket for the Fibs
Worse than useless, and gutless
Guess it might make Labor appear even more piss-weak if they had Greens and crossbenchers taking issue with the govt, whilst they back their own utter mediocrity
Yabba @ #2391 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 5:17 pm
But it’s not onomatopoeia, right?
Mavis @ #2375 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 3:34 pm
Perhaps Barr is trying to save himself. He doesn’t have a lot of options.
Quoll @ #2393 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 5:18 pm
Swan is a useless President. Presiding over a hopelessly fractured organisation that has little direction or unity. The malaise is clear and entrenched.
Spray,
Sing it for us.
You know you want to!
It’s one of those tunes you can’t get out of your head.
Quoll @ #2392 Monday, December 7th, 2020 – 2:18 pm
The Greens will just have be more selective with their stunts.
Rudd’s not happy. Morison shot back this accusation in defence of Downer and Abbott’s travels in an out of Australia. The cobra strikes back.
I think the Chinese have Morrison nailed.
Barney,
You nail it right there!
The smll Parties and Indies are so bereft of ideas that the only means they have to get attention are vacuous stunts followed by truculent indignation that no one takes them seriously and how it’s all so unfair.
Piss off!
A bit disappointed Rudd said “misled” rather than “lied” to parliament. Would have ensured the meeja brought a much wider audiences’ attention to Scrott’s bullshitting.