Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.

Two polls suggest the federal government’s COVID-19 dividend may be starting to wear a bit thin.

Today is the day of the federal by-election for the Queensland seat of Groom, which you can offer your thoughts on on this post in the apparently unlikely event that you have something specifically to say about it through the course of the day. This site will naturally be all over the count this evening, complete with a live results facility that is fully battle-tested so far as federal elections are concerned.

Other news of note:

• Roy Morgan had a result this week from the federal voting intention series it conducts regularly but publishes erratically. This one credited the Coalition with a slender two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 34%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%. State breakdowns had the Coalition leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales, the reverse in Victoria, the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland, the Coalition leading 51-49 in Western Australia, and Labor leading 52.5-47.5 in South Australia. The poll was conducted online and by telephone over the two previous weekends from a sample of 2824.

• The Financial Review reports on JWS Research polling that shows 20% believe states should close borders to other states that have any active COVID-19 cases, “almost 60%” believe the same should happen if there are 25 active cases, and 75% say the same for 100 active cases. The report further relates that 60% of respondents rated the federal government’s handling of the virus positively, down six points from July, and that 87% of Western Australians, 82% of South Australians and 57% of Victorians (up seven since July) did likewise for their state goverments, with due caution for the small size of the relevant sub-samples. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1035 from last Friday to Sunday.

John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Victorial Liberal Senate preselection contenders for the next election: Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and the party’s former state director (including at the time of its disastrous 2018 campaign); Roshena Campbell, a Melbourne lawyer; Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella; and Jess Wilson, policy director at the Business Council of Australia. This is likely to amount to a race for the second position on the ticket, with Sarah Henderson to be promoted to first and Scott Ryan not seeking another term. There is contention in the state branch over president Robert Clark’s reluctance to have preselections determined through party plebiscites, with critics accusing him of using COVID-19 to maintain control by the central administration, as it did before the last election. According to the report, “a statewide ballot would favour Mr Frost, while an administrative committee vote would favour those loyal to Mr Clark’s forces“.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

686 comments on “Miscellany: Morgan poll, Liberal Senate preselection, etc.”

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  1. The MSM journos are, in general, hopelessly biased. They are not necessarily partisan to the LNP. But biased against the left side of politics. So many are corrupted by the system they are drowning in, in workplace organisational structural bias and in awe of the RW thinktank and Business lobby reps.

    But, that is ok. Shanks admits he is biased. Everyone is. The problem with the journos in the MSM; they believe the sun shines out of all their orifices, completely unaware of their bias, disinterested in using journalistic tools to check/balance their bias (because they are perfect centrists surrounded by a sea of evil partisans) and, worse, are petulant when their bias is called into question. They have lost sight of the higher calling of their profession – professionals in name only.

    Shanks’ vid yesterday was good in this regard. I am still a fence sitter on all his methods, especially the way he is (increasingly?) making his vids about himself, but his content and main aim is bloody impressive to see getting traction.

  2. Victoria

    She truly thinks that occasionally stating she is concerned about Trumps conduct every now and then, cuts the mustard. Sheesh.

    ______________________________________

    It worked a treat getting her re-elected in Maine.

  3. Speaking to health professionals yesterday from a big hospital here in Melbourne,

    Their contempt for how all the media reported the second wave here in Melbourne, of course, was not lost on me.
    Coping with the second wave should have been s hell of a lot easier than it was. The hardest part was the constant undermining. by the media and the feds, and opposition parties.

    You only have to look at all their musings and tweets to know how disgraceful they all were.

    Victoria’s success thankfully occurred in spite of them all.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish I say.

    I know I will never forgive them.

  4. Vic & Simon – Yes.

    shanks is trying to make serious points/ allegations but being a constant smart arse detracts from this. IMO opinion anyway.

    If he is only trying to reach the under 30’s, he is forgoing chances to make barilaro face the allegations.

  5. Dave

    Yes that is a fair point.

    Although These serious allegations should stand on their own, even if snark is employed in providing the message.

  6. TPOF @ #53 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 10:28 am

    Victoria

    She truly thinks that occasionally stating she is concerned about Trumps conduct every now and then, cuts the mustard. Sheesh.

    ______________________________________

    It worked a treat getting her re-elected in Maine.

    She voted against the Affordable Care Act when it didnt matter. She voted for it when it did.

    I dont see Biden has a choice. He has to take her at her word and try to work with her – look for things she can vote for and try to barter where she is willing.

  7. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered at least two people executed, banned fishing at sea and locked down the capital, Pyongyang, as part of frantic efforts to guard against the coronavirus and its economic damage, South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers Friday.

    Kim’s government also ordered diplomats overseas to refrain from any acts that could provoke the United States because it is worried about President-elect Joe Biden’s expected new approach toward North Korea, lawmakers told reporters after attending a private briefing by the National Intelligence Service.

    One of the lawmakers, Ha Tae-keung, quoted the NIS as saying Kim is displaying “excessive anger” and taking “irrational measures” over the pandemic and its economic impact.
    North Korea also made an unsuccessful hacking attempt on at least one South Korean pharmaceutical company that was trying to develop a coronavirus vaccine, the NIS said.

  8. A centrist among politicians and most mainstream journalists is not at all like a centrist among voters. The politicians and mainstream journalists who consider themselves centrists are massively right-wing compared with what voters want. There is a powerful dynamic of members of “the club” looking after their own and being out of touch with the people. LNP and ALP politicians alike resist enacting stronger anti-corruption laws and investigative bodies, for example.

  9. The fact that Shanks gets on the piss and slurs indigenous culture, cast homophobic slurs, thinks it is ok for an opposition leader to stay in office notwithstanding unsolicited sexual touching and had a Pauline Hanson moment about his life being under threat might cause some degree of pause.

    What he is now doing is trying to sex up Michael West’s work. Let’s see how that goes.

  10. Firefox says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 10:12 am

    Will the [Labor] bashing continue?

    You bet it will. There will be no relaxation. Green profits depend on Labor bashing.

  11. Simon Katich @ #59 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 11:05 am

    TPOF @ #53 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 10:28 am

    Victoria

    She truly thinks that occasionally stating she is concerned about Trumps conduct every now and then, cuts the mustard. Sheesh.

    ______________________________________

    It worked a treat getting her re-elected in Maine.

    She voted against the Affordable Care Act when it didnt matter. She voted for it when it did.

    I dont see Biden has a choice. He has to take her at her word and try to work with her – look for things she can vote for and try to barter where she is willing.

    The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. I doubt Joe Biden will put up with much malarkey from Ms Susan. If she keeps dudding him she will certainly find that Maine ‘magically’ misses out on important contracts and things like that. 🙂

  12. There is some debate going on about this on NSW Health Twitter. I think 21 is right.
    Last unknown origin case 29 October – 30 days

  13. Republican governor of West Virginia, Jim Justice, giving the folks a reality check (he is one of the GOP governors who have issued a mask mandate)

    https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1331763519293845512

    David Begnaud
    @DavidBegnaud
    WATCH: West Virginia’s Republican Governor: I had many people calling saying to me we want to be like South Dakota, we want to be S.D.. Well, I don’t wanna be S.D. I don’t want to be S.D. and this is probably the most accurate thing that I think you could see about S.D.:

    0:00
    102.2K views
    12:55 AM · Nov 26, 2020· Twitter

  14. [‘…the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland…’]

    If that’s indicative the solution is to send Palaszczuk to Canberra, with Chalmers as her deputy. Of course, the alternative is for the current Labor leadership to hold the Morrison Government to account,
    but there’s been scant evidence of that, the latest scandal – Cormann –
    hardly creating a ripple. It’s as if graft, corruption, mismanagement,
    pork-barrelling is the new norm.

  15. SK

    The MSM journos are, in general, hopelessly biased.

    __________________________________

    It is interesting how many journos suddenly report things how they actually see it when they join the Guardian, the New Daily or some of the genuinely independent sites like Michael West.

    It seems to me that what they report when working for Stokes, Nine or News is what they know their bosses will agree to print. Once they have real journalistic freedom they write what they really think.

    The ABC is a special case. Not only has there been a sustained ongoing bullying by successive Coalition governments, but most of the journos are pretty much cookie cutter types – selected to fit a particular mindset. I think the ABC lets them say what they think because the ABC management approves of what they think. Exceptions, like Emma Alberici, are shown the door sooner or, after even more cuts, later.

  16. Nicholas @ #62 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 10:36 am

    A centrist among politicians and most mainstream journalists is not at all like a centrist among voters. The politicians and mainstream journalists who consider themselves centrists are massively right-wing compared with what voters want. There is a powerful dynamic of members of “the club” looking after their own and being out of touch with the people. LNP and ALP politicians alike resist enacting stronger anti-corruption laws and investigative bodies, for example.

    Yeah, I should have used the word in rabbit ears. The word “centrist” is like Goldilocks…. a fairly tale. It isnt real. It doesnt exist. It is a construct; made by people for their own ends.

  17. TPOF @ #72 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 10:44 am

    SK

    The MSM journos are, in general, hopelessly biased.

    __________________________________

    It is interesting how many journos suddenly report things how they actually see it when they join the Guardian, the New Daily or some of the genuinely independent sites like Michael West.

    It seems to me that what they report when working for Stokes, Nine or News is what they know their bosses will agree to print. Once they have real journalistic freedom they write what they really think.

    The ABC is a special case. Not only has there been a sustained ongoing bullying by successive Coalition governments, but most of the journos are pretty much cookie cutter types – selected to fit a particular mindset. I think the ABC lets them say what they think because the ABC management approves of what they think. Exceptions, like Emma Alberici, are shown the door sooner or, after even more cuts, later.

    Yep – thats the structural and system influence I mentioned. But a professional is meant to ignore such things.

    There are exceptions of course. And not just in those organisations you mention like The G and ND. I reckon POV is pretty good.

  18. Nicholas says:
    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 11:06 am

    A centrist among politicians and most mainstream journalists is not at all like a centrist among voters.

    Yeah, oh yeah. Oh yeah.

    Oh Yeah. The not special theory of moral relativism applies to all human activity. You’re probably pretty much in the centre of the Faux-sphere too, though you’d be considered to be a petite bourgeois sprat in Mao’s Communist Party.

  19. Mavis @ #70 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    [‘…the Coalition leading 54.5-45.5 in Queensland…’]

    If that’s indicative the solution is to send Palaszczuk to Canberra, with Chalmers as her deputy. Of course, the alternative is for the current Labor leadership to hold the Morrison Government to account,
    but there’s been scant evidence of that, the latest scandal – Cormann –
    hardly creating a ripple. It’s as if graft, corruption, mismanagement,
    pork-barrelling is the new norm.

    ‘the alternative is for the current Labor leadership to hold the Morrison Government to account,’…
    Que?
    What is this ‘holding to account’ you speak of?….
    .
    …’graft, corruption, mismanagement, pork-barrelling is the new norm’…only until/if Labor wins government then the old rules will be re-applied…..because a coalition opposition would go apoplectic with the merest sniff of trouble….

  20. @EvieDaisy3
    ·
    2h
    My neighbour is 60
    He has pace maker and epilepsy + physical issues
    He’s trying for DSP again!
    He was told by job agency he needed another cert or start looking for work this week
    I called an ambo yest
    He’d had a fit and heart attack
    This govt is literally killing people

    What was it Morrison said to Annabel? “I just don’t care.”

  21. lizzie,
    My #2 son has a Congenital Abnormality, Severe Asthama which can put him in ICU if he gets a cold that progresses to Pneumonia, which it did for a week once, AND he has Haempohilia.

    He was unable to get the DSP.

    To my eyes Morrison has ordered the 750000 on it already are grandfathered and everyone else gets knocked back UNLESS a hue and cry about individual cases is made in the media and gains traction. Then the individual is granted access.

  22. Mavis! How do you access the new Edit function, not on a phone but on a laptop!?! It’s like torture seeing my fat finger mistakes exposed. 😆

  23. “ Beware the hyperbowl, shellbell.”

    Shellbell is quite discomforted by the fact that Jordan has cut through the 9Faix and Daily Turd induced torpor of the past 9 years that has seen the LNP Visigoths loot the state on an unprecedented scale without much reaction at all. He’s probably very comforted by the fact he’ll soon(ish) have a brand new billion dollar stadium to watch the rah-rah just across the bridge and along his beloved Cahill Expressway and well away from the common herd in Homebush.

    He’s now making common cause with the same said 9Faix and Newscorpse fightback by a spot of right wing ‘cancel culture’ on Jordies to make it all go away … so we can have another decade of conservative torpor in the ‘proper’ press, whilst ignoring the continued degradation of the state by the Visigoths.

    Oh, here’s a clip of Jordan dealing with the smudge head on … and appropriately apologising … not that you’d ever witness a mia culpa from any lizard creature in the MSM …

    https://youtu.be/b6JsM4z-wzk

  24. C@t

    Unqualified agency reps seem to be able to make judgements taken as gospel, which lead me to believe that they do indeed simply work to set targets without mercy.

  25. C@tmomma:

    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 11:34 am

    [‘Mavis! How do you access the new Edit function, not on a phone but on a laptop!?! It’s like torture seeing my fat finger mistakes exposed. ‘]

    I use a desktop (Apple Mac) and after posting, an edit option appears below a post, which you simply click. I don’t know if this happens with a laptop. Perhaps Kay Jay can advise.

  26. Fran is on the money here …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2020/nov/28/the-frant-australia-still-doesnt-have-a-real-climate-policy-why-are-we-like-this-video

    Australians want action, by a massive majority. Australian politicians do not. By a similarly massive majority.

    So, what price democracy? Well, at least we know that fairly precisely now – $100 billion a year, or about $4,000 per person per year.

    That’s all it costs to completely subvert a democracy.

    The question is – why are Australians willing to sell themselves so cheaply?

  27. Mavis @ #87 Saturday, November 28th, 2020 – 11:58 am

    C@tmomma:

    Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 11:34 am

    [‘Mavis! How do you access the new Edit function, not on a phone but on a laptop!?! It’s like torture seeing my fat finger mistakes exposed. ‘]

    I use a desktop (Apple Mac) and after posting, an edit option appears below a post, which you simply click. I don’t know if this happens with a laptop. Perhaps Kay Jay can advise.

    I’ll post a little about this as soon as I finish a phone call with my nephew.

    In the meanwhile a request to AR regarding an amendment to C+ would be in order.

  28. Victoria

    Speaking to health professionals yesterday from a big hospital here in Melbourne,

    Their contempt for how all the media reported the second wave here in Melbourne, of course, was not lost on me.
    Coping with the second wave should have been s hell of a lot easier than it was. The hardest part was the constant undermining. by the media and the feds, and opposition parties.

    You only have to look at all their musings and tweets to know how disgraceful they all were.

    Victoria’s success thankfully occurred in spite of them all.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish I say.

    I know I will never forgive them.

    I’ll second that. These commentators should be ridiculed for the rest of their miserable lives.

    Of course this wasn’t just a Victorian problem.

    I’m waiting for Gladys to eat her words too. And then certain “experts”..

  29. ”What I was commenting on was the irrelevance, under the NSW Constitution, of the Legislative Council passing an amendment to the budget.”

    The Upper House can’t change or reject budgets but if the Lower House had passed the motion, it would have become law. That was never going to happen, of course. The Opposition Leader was out to make a point, one well worth making. Now the better-informed people in NSW know that ICAC is being starved

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