Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election

A good poll result from Labor in Victoria, an even better election result for Labor in Queensland, and only four candidates come forward for the Groom by-election.

The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 44%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%. This compares with 57.3-42.7 at Labor’s landslide win in 2018, when the primary votes were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%. Personal ratings are good for Daniel Andrews (65% approval and 32% disapproval) and disastrous for Liberal leader Michael O’Brien (26% approval and 53% disapproval).

The poll nonetheless found that 55% thought it fair to hold Daniel Andrews responsible for the second COVID-19 wave, compared with 40% for not fair. Fifty per cent believed Andrews had been honest and transparent about the hotel quarantine failure against 43% for not honest and transparent; 53% said Victoria was heading in the right direction versus 39% who said it is “time for change”. The poll was conducted from October 29 to November from a sample of 1241.

UPDATE: Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.

In real election news, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has been completing preference distributions for the October 31 state election, and while the numbers haven’t been officially published, Antony Green relates that luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin. These seats have been gained from the LNP with respective margins of 11 and 79 votes, pending LNP requests for recounts.

Confirmation of these results would leave Labor with 52 seats in a parliament of 93, a net gain of four compared with the 2017 result. South Brisbane was lost to the Greens (6.0% margin, 9.5% swing), while five were gained from the LNP Bundaberg (by a 0.0% margin with a 4.2% swing), Nicklin (a 0.1% margin and a 5.4% swing), Caloundra (a 2.5% margin and a 5.9% swing), Hervey Bay (a 2.2% margin and an 11.3% swing) and Pumicestone (a 5.1% margin and a 6.0% swing). These are Labor’s first ever wins in Nicklin and Caloundra, both of which are on the Sunshine Coast.

The LNP is duly reduced from 38 seats to 33, unless you count their recovery of Whitsunday after its previous member was expelled from the party mid-term. Their one piece of good news from late counting was that they managed to retain the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin by 310 votes, a 0.3% margin against a swing to Labor of 3.0% (David Crisafulli will be chosen as the party’s new leader unopposed at a party room meeting today). South Brisbane increases the Greens from one to two, with the party having easily its 2017 gain of Maiwar from the LNP, while Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation achieved status quo results of three seats and one respectively, as did independents with Sandy Bolton comfortably retaining Noosa.

Official results are naturally available from the ECQ; the numbers on my live results facility are emphatically not official, in that I have preserved them as they were a week ago before the ECQ removed the indicative two-candidate preferred counts. This means both the booth-level two-candidate preferred results and preference flow by candidate breakdowns are preserved, albeit in not entirely complete form.

Finally, while the attention of most of us has been firmly elsewhere, the process for the November 28 Groom by-election has continued chugging along, with nominations having been declared last Friday. The by-election has attracted a remarkably thin field of four candidates, which somewhat to my surprise includes one from Labor: Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. The preselection of LNP candidate Garth Hamilton was related here. The other two candidates are from the Liberal Democrats and Sustainable Australia – as well as there being no One Nation presence, this must be the first time a while that the Greens have left a federal contest uncontested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

635 thoughts on “Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election”

  2. We have still not seen the @UniofAdelaide
    Review into the Cashless Debit Card. The Minister for Social Services Anne Ruston told Senate Estimates 2 weeks ago she had still not seen the review. She introduced this Bill to make it permanent, with no evidence to support it. #auspol

  3. No doubt, SK. he’s been doing it for the ‘gibbon for years.

    But it doesn’t mean he’s wrong on Butler. I’ve been saying the same since the atrocious decision to back Turnbull’s NEG and the even weaker decision to stick with Turnbull’s NEG policy during the last election campaign. Weak as piss, and the whole energy industry was shocked at just how lacking in courage it was. Sure, some were happy about it, but everyone was surprised.

  5. Dandy Murray @ #153 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    No doubt, SK. he’s been doing it for the ‘gibbon for years.

    But it doesn’t mean he’s wrong on Butler. I’ve been saying the same since the atrocious decision to back Turnbull’s NEG and the even weaker decision to stick with Turnbull’s NEG policy during the last election campaign. Weak as piss, and the whole energy industry was shocked at just how lacking in courage it was. Sure, some were happy about it, but everyone was surprised.

    There arent a lot on the ALP shadow that are up to it. Too many rate a 1 on the Kevin Hardwick scale.

  6. This is a private whinge but I have nowhere else to air it and I’m cross. This morning the gardener has mulched a perennial bed and his assistant ‘efficiently’ weeded out a Japanese perennial (Kierengshoma palmata) that has taken two years to establish. The leaves faintly resemble a maple or sycamore. It is now buried in a bonfire pile. 😡

  8. Butler should have resigned after the 2019 election.

    Bowen went.Catherine King went and Shorten and Plibersek rightly resigned their positions.

    Butler cannot be forgiven for delivering a suite of policies that were too complex and diverse to explain during a campaign. However, his worst fuckup was not having any costings done to offset the obvious media attacks that would be launched during the campaign. Shorten was left hanging and reduced to parroting the “ the cost of doing nothing is worse.” Unforgivable from Butler who was the responsible minister.

    Butler has had his day and he should have accepted his share of responsibility and resigned last year.

    Saying that, it still does not justify Fitzgibbon throwing bombs from his newly minted back bench spot and calling publically for Butler to go. A step too far.

  9. doyley @ #158 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 1:05 pm

    Butler should have resigned after the 2019 election.

    Bowen went.Catherine King went and Shorten and Plibersek rightly resigned their positions.

    Butler cannot be forgiven for delivering a suite of policies that were too complex and diverse to explain during a campaign. However, his worst fuckup was not having any costings done to offset the obvious media attacks that would be launched during the campaign. Shorten was left hanging and reduced to parroting the “ the cost of doing nothing is worse.” Unforgivable from Butler who was the responsible minister.

    Butler has had his day and he should have accepted his share of responsibility and resigned last year.

    Saying that, it still does not justify Fitzgibbon throwing bombs from his newly minted back bench spot and calling publically for Butler to go. A step too far.

    Who does the CFMMEU prefer to take over from Butler ?

  12. Simon Katich @ #144 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 12:34 pm

    Dandy Murray @ #140 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 11:55 am

    Ah shit, I have to agree with ‘gibbon on Butler.

    Doesnt matter. Fitz no longer seems to be doing this for the good of the ALP or the nation or the planet. Fitz is doing it for himself.

    Didn’t take him long to get down to the business of undermining the current front bench in preparations for his tilt at the LOTO position.

    This internal war is going to get real messy for Labor.

  13. Anyway, on the whole I still think it’s agood thing that Labor are being seen to have this monumental tussle over the way forward on Energy policy. It shows people we aren’t just doing what is electorally convenient and going back to a betrayal of ‘the greatest moral challenge of our generation’.

  14. C@tmomma @ #163 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 1:12 pm

    Anyway, on the whole I still think it’s agood thing that Labor are being seen to have this monumental tussle over the way forward on Energy policy. It shows people we aren’t just doing what is electorally convenient and going back to a betrayal of ‘the greatest moral challenge of our generation’.

    Yes, it’s past time Labor stopped trying to be everything for everyone re climate/energy.

    They need to be clear and unambiguous one way or the other.

  16. C@tmomma @ #78 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 10:40 am

    I bet Scott Morrison ignores VP -Elect Kamala Harris too if she comes to Australia with POTUS_Elect Biden. He’s as much of a misogynist as Abbott. Oh to be a fly on the wall and hear him in Cabinet treating the women with unbridled disdain when he knows no one is able to see or hear him.

    I don’t believe the President and Vice President ever travel together, and I also doubt they would both visit Australia at the same time anyway. We would not be worth the cost.

    If Biden has any brains he will just send Kamala alone. Both as a rebuff to Australia for refusing to adopt a rational climate change policy, and also to teach Morrison a lesson on dealing with powerful women.

  17. “Yes, it’s past time Labor stopped trying to be everything for everyone re climate/energy.

    They need to be clear and unambiguous one way or the other.”

    ***

    Exactly the point I made on here a long time ago re: Labor’s fence sitting over Adani. All Labor achieves by sitting on the fence is losing support from both sides. Stand for something and fight for it.

  18. Karl Rove tells Trump to give up — he’s never going to overturn the election

    On Wednesday, writing for The Wall Street Journal, Republican mega-strategist Karl Rove laid down the truth for President Donald Trump — he cannot overturn the results of the election, and he should honor democracy and American tradition by handing the reins of power to President-elect Joe Biden.

    “Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is correct that Mr. Trump is “100% within his rights” to go to court over concerns about fraud and transparency. But the president’s efforts are unlikely to move a single state from Mr. Biden’s column, and certainly they’re not enough to change the final outcome.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/karl-rove-tells-trump-to-give-up-hes-never-going-to-overturn-the-election/

  19. Firefox @ #167 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    “Yes, it’s past time Labor stopped trying to be everything for everyone re climate/energy.

    They need to be clear and unambiguous one way or the other.”

    ***

    Exactly the point I made on here a long time ago re: Labor’s fence sitting over Adani. All Labor achieves by sitting on the fence is losing support from both sides. Stand for something and fight for it.

    100% agree. And now is the time.

  20. Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    6m
    Morrison talks about “the honest and brutal truth” and people “will be held to account” when talking about war crimes.
    This hypocritical spin merchant we have as PM will not apply the principles of truth and accountability to those in his grubby, scandal ridden govt.
    Pathetic!

  21. Squad of 17 named for India series – debuts for Green and Pucovski mandatory.

    Australia Test squad: Tim Paine (c), Sean Abbott, Joe Burns, Pat Cummins, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Will Pucovski, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Matthew Wade, David Warner

  22. BK,
    “…then say to Morrison, “That’s how you handle pests like Kelly, Canavan, Christensen, Abetz, etc!””

    Except that to Morrison, they are not pests. They are the ones saying exactly what Morrison is thinking thereby allowing Morrison to not have to say them. What’s more, they say them on or on the LNP’s partner platforms so there is double indemnity. It’s a luxury that Labor will never have but then they will never be in hock to those organisations either.

  23. “Scott Morrison is also off to Japan next week”

    Jens and the girls tagging along? While the rest of us are stuck? That will be a meesage that you won’t read in the Daily Telegraph.

  24. https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/11/12/victorian-poll-queensland-election-groom-by-election/comment-page-3/#comment-3512348

    … to encourage the others?
    Oh I don’t know, then again I didn’t expect to see $houty go to the Lodge over destined to be so strategically marrying either.
    At the next election, I’ll probably look at whose got credibility on Wuflu, climate crisis, support for a federal ICAC with teeth, society (inequality etc given JobMaker , etc …), power shift …

  25. “Too many rate a 1 on the Kevin Hardwick scale”

    Are we talking the ability scale or the mullet scale? If the latter, then I give you Kerry Hemsley…

  26. @L’arse:

    “ The rate of cancers caused from unrestrained dog rooting is also horrific.”

    It is pretty clear now, isn’t it? L’arse = Chris Kenny.

  29. It feels tricky to unpick the looks of the women in Trump’s orbit without veering into sexism. There is no moral high ground in sneering at the tightness of dresses or the generic 90210-blond shade of hair dye. Yet there is something deeply unsettling about the Fox-News-adjacent wardrobe of the women around Trump. It is a look in which people-pleasing girlishness fights against steely vampishness, leaving no space for women to simply be adult humans. Consider, for instance, the omnipresent camera-friendly ringletted hairstyles, which sit somewhere between Medusa and a sweet 16th birthday party. For all its gloss, this is less like female empowerment than the values of the patriarchy, swallowed whole and served up with a smile.

    https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2020/nov/11/bye-don-a-farewell-to-the-trump-aesthetic

  31. Roy Orbisonsays:
    Thursday, November 12, 2020 at 1:49 pm
    “Scott Morrison is also off to Japan next week”
    ___________________________________
    What’s the fire rating around the country for next week?

  34. loathe as I am to defend anything Scomo does – it needs to be pointed out that he didn’t interrupt Ruston to ‘mansplain’ for her, but to voice his objection to the term “bonk ban” that Coorey used in his question. He then handed over to Ruston to let her answer the actual question.

    *THAT SAID* – he should have excused himself or even apologise to Ruston for interrupting. It wasn’t a good look that he didn’t.

  36. Big A Adrian @ #113 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 10:42 am

    “For the millionth time, didn’t Boerwar have a set to with Mr Bowe and so he took his bat and ball and went home!?!”

    Mr Bowe rightly reprimanded him for his endless greens trolling, which frankly became boring and tedious. Such a shame for someone who otherwise had such interesting insights and contributions.

    Surely one or two others must be testing that limit with even less redeeming qualities.

  38. A CNN commentator claims quite realistically that McConnell and most of his Senate GOP colleagues are playing games due to the fear that if they don’t keep backing Trump, he’ll refuse to campaign for the GOP candidates in the Georgia run-offs.
    Thus Trump might deny to Biden until January, 5 the right by convention to administratively prepare for his presidency.

  39. A CNN commentator claims quite realistically that McConnell and most of his Senate GOP colleagues are playing games due to the fear that if they don’t keep backing Trump, he’ll refuse to campaign for the GOP candidates in the Georgia run-offs.

    He’ll do that anyway. Why should he care about the GA Senate runoffs one way or another?

    Think the only thing he’s really after is immunity from prosecution.

  42. If only P1’s idea of Mr Biden sending VP Harris to the ANZUS celebrations next year were to eventuate, Mr Morrison would be faced with not one but two outstanding women as, no doubt, PM Ardern would also be an essential party to the celebrations.
    If only…..

  45. ‘Why should he care about the GA Senate runoffs one way or another?’

    One reason could be that Trump wishes for as much chaos as possible after leaving office, which may follow if the GOP maintains control of the Senate. And although not wishing to invoke Godwin’s Law, it should nevertheless be borne in mind that out of pique, Hitler ordered that Paris be burnt to the ground.

  47. “luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin”…

    Luck?… Do we have any evidence that the voters allocated their preferences by tossing a coin?

  48. “Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.”….

    My dear ScuMo and Gladys, thank you very much, your interventions in the politics of Victoria and Queensland is always very much appreciated…. Keep up with the good job!… 🙂

  49. BK

    I note that the date of the ANZUS formation was 1st September, 1951. I see that the earliest a federal election can be called, having regard to the half Senate provisions, is 7th August, 2021.

    Am I too cynical in my considerably late age to think that the idea of inviting Mr Biden to celebrate the 7oth Anniversary might be because Mr Morrison sees great electoral photo opportunities looming for an election towards the end of 2021?

    Perish the thought!

  50. “Albo should kick Fitzgibbon from the party and then say to Morrison, “Thant’s how you handle pests like Kelly, Canavan, Christensen, Abetz, etc!”

    No, I wouldn’t want to see Joel Fitzgibbon kicked out because I generally think he has something to contribute to the Labor party. But he needs to be mindful of his outspokeness and not cross the line.

    Fitzgibbon doesn’t have any power because he has enemies from the Left and Right faction. So he can’t really be a destabilizing force to Albanese leadership.

    Fitzgibbon as leader would be an interesting choice though because he isn’t damage goods from the 2019 federal election like (Shorten, Plibersek, and Bowen) but he’s not lacking experience like Chalmers.

    Fitzgibbon is not a complete fool either. Remember he criticised Labor in government for pinning too much of its hopes on a surplus that wasn’t realistic to deliver in the economic conditions and was setting itself up to fail. He’s not a complete lightweight who has no substance. By saying that I don’t think he is in the mix for the leadership.

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