Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election

A good poll result from Labor in Victoria, an even better election result for Labor in Queensland, and only four candidates come forward for the Groom by-election.

The Herald-Sun reported on Monday on a “privately conducted” Victorian state poll by YouGov that showed Labor maintaining a commanding 55-45 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 44%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%. This compares with 57.3-42.7 at Labor’s landslide win in 2018, when the primary votes were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%. Personal ratings are good for Daniel Andrews (65% approval and 32% disapproval) and disastrous for Liberal leader Michael O’Brien (26% approval and 53% disapproval).

The poll nonetheless found that 55% thought it fair to hold Daniel Andrews responsible for the second COVID-19 wave, compared with 40% for not fair. Fifty per cent believed Andrews had been honest and transparent about the hotel quarantine failure against 43% for not honest and transparent; 53% said Victoria was heading in the right direction versus 39% who said it is “time for change”. The poll was conducted from October 29 to November from a sample of 1241.

UPDATE: Now a Roy Morgan poll gives Labor a lead of 58.5-41.5, up from 51.5-48.5 a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 45% (up five), Coalition 34.5% (down 5.5) and Greens 11% (up two). Daniel Andrews’ approval rating split is out from 59-41 to 71-29. The poll was conducted by SMS on Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 818.

In real election news, the Electoral Commission of Queensland has been completing preference distributions for the October 31 state election, and while the numbers haven’t been officially published, Antony Green relates that luck has favoured Labor in the final preference distributions in Bundaberg and Nicklin. These seats have been gained from the LNP with respective margins of 11 and 79 votes, pending LNP requests for recounts.

Confirmation of these results would leave Labor with 52 seats in a parliament of 93, a net gain of four compared with the 2017 result. South Brisbane was lost to the Greens (6.0% margin, 9.5% swing), while five were gained from the LNP Bundaberg (by a 0.0% margin with a 4.2% swing), Nicklin (a 0.1% margin and a 5.4% swing), Caloundra (a 2.5% margin and a 5.9% swing), Hervey Bay (a 2.2% margin and an 11.3% swing) and Pumicestone (a 5.1% margin and a 6.0% swing). These are Labor’s first ever wins in Nicklin and Caloundra, both of which are on the Sunshine Coast.

The LNP is duly reduced from 38 seats to 33, unless you count their recovery of Whitsunday after its previous member was expelled from the party mid-term. Their one piece of good news from late counting was that they managed to retain the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin by 310 votes, a 0.3% margin against a swing to Labor of 3.0% (David Crisafulli will be chosen as the party’s new leader unopposed at a party room meeting today). South Brisbane increases the Greens from one to two, with the party having easily its 2017 gain of Maiwar from the LNP, while Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation achieved status quo results of three seats and one respectively, as did independents with Sandy Bolton comfortably retaining Noosa.

Official results are naturally available from the ECQ; the numbers on my live results facility are emphatically not official, in that I have preserved them as they were a week ago before the ECQ removed the indicative two-candidate preferred counts. This means both the booth-level two-candidate preferred results and preference flow by candidate breakdowns are preserved, albeit in not entirely complete form.

Finally, while the attention of most of us has been firmly elsewhere, the process for the November 28 Groom by-election has continued chugging along, with nominations having been declared last Friday. The by-election has attracted a remarkably thin field of four candidates, which somewhat to my surprise includes one from Labor: Chris Meibusch, a community lawyer and unsuccessful candidate for the Toowoomba mayoralty in March. The preselection of LNP candidate Garth Hamilton was related here. The other two candidates are from the Liberal Democrats and Sustainable Australia – as well as there being no One Nation presence, this must be the first time a while that the Greens have left a federal contest uncontested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

635 thoughts on “Victorian poll, Queensland election, Groom by-election”

Comments Page 3 of 13
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  2. C@tmomma @ #100 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 8:04 am

    Danama Papers @ #95 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 11:03 am

    Victoria @ #58 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 6:53 am

    So the state of Georgia is going to recount millions of ballots by hand.

    Sheesh!

    Why? After Pennsylvania pushed Biden over 270 it seems somewhat academic.

    For 2 reasons: Georgia Senate Run-Off and, Georgia Senate Run-Off. It keeps the issue on the front burner and serves to motivate the Trumpists to come out bigly.

    Makes sense.

  3. C@tmomma @ #87 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 10:50 am

    Figured out how to make a gif work. Just add .gif to the Image Address you Copy. 😀

    Mostly works although the Glen LeLievre .gifs are apparently not real .gifs but a type of mini movie.

    Those require the stuffing about that I have previously mentioned although the second method is much easier and faster. Goto

    https://ezgif.com/

    and have a play with that.

    Now back to my recalcitrant computer and resetting.

    For C@tmomma. Keep up the good work. Some of the odd images are difficult to work with. 😻

  5. Late Riser @ #96 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 10:03 am

    I know it’s not as simple, but one way to read this is that if it takes covid more than 28 days to kill you then officially it didn’t.

    Yep. The right-wingers are messing with the stats to make C19 look less dangerous than it is (though despite their efforts, the stats are still awful).

    A friend shared this on Facebook this morning:

    On Monday, Rafael’s mother, Carola, left this world, and it was a loss for all of those she touched while she was alive. She was regal, a fighter, selfless in the most important ways, discerning when it came to her taste in people, and fiercely loyal and caring to those she loved. She was a devoted mother, grandmother, sister, daughter, wife and friend. Once she had judged that I was worthy, she accepted me into her family with open arms, and cared/worried about me as if I were her own son. She took immense pride in her 3 sons and was very involved in their lives.

    I know she would have been particularly proud of Rafael, and the way he stepped up to manage her care since she contracted COVID-19 at work in March. She was too much of a fighter and far too stubborn to let this insidious virus take her at the time. She survived months on a ventilator, and was eventually able to heal (at least physically) even as the process left her unable to communicate with us. Rafael sent an iPad to the nursing home, which was setup to auto answer, so he could FaceTime with her daily. He managed her medical care, called to tell her about his day, read books to her, coordinated with his entire family in 2 languages, and fretted over making sure she was as comfortable as possible. He took on a leadership role, which he generally finds uncomfortable, and he was a superstar at it. This had always been Carola’s role in the family, and I know she must’ve been proud and relieved to know she could count on him.

    After 7 months of fighting, another infection took her quickly in her weakened state. You won’t see her number added to the list of COVID deaths, although, the hospital told us that a normal healthy person (which she had been prior to COVID) her age would’ve survived her recent illness. I know many people are becoming exhausted with being constantly careful, and maybe you have convinced yourselves little by little that breaking the rules just once won’t result in you or someone you love suffering catastrophic consequences. In Carola’s honor, I hope you will think twice before holding a typical multi-household thanksgiving, hanging out with that friend without a mask, or refusing to get tested and self quarantine. Not everyone who is heavily impacted by COVID dies. Many are left permanently weakened and vulnerable to common illnesses.

    🙁

  7. Why Trump Fears Leaving the White House

    Losing the presidency leaves him vulnerable to financial and legal danger.

    Donald Trump is the luckiest man alive. Unlike almost, well, everyone, he’s been protected from the consequences of his own mistakes his entire life.

    Born into a wealthy family, he was insulated from lukewarm academic prospects and serial business crack-ups by his father’s money. (“I often say that I’m a member of the lucky sperm club,” is how he put it in one of his books.) Emerging as a reality-TV star in the early 2000s, Trump discovered that fame allowed him to be as predatory as he pleased without repercussions. (“When you’re a star, they let you do it.”) And his 2016 ascent to the White House opened his eyes to the presidency’s legal armor — which he interpreted broadly and often inaccurately. (“I have an Article II, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.”)

    Although Trump has over the years juggled, among other difficulties, ho-hum grades, the threat of personal bankruptcy, sexual assault accusations, an intensive federal investigation and an impeachment, he has plowed ahead relatively unwounded and unencumbered by regret. Wealth, celebrity and the presidency have kept him buoyant. All that insulation has also meant that he hasn’t learned from his mistakes. Every personal and public reckoning has been postponed or shunted aside.

    Now, however, Trump is staring at two threats that loom after he leaves the White House in January. One is financial, the other legal. Neither is entirely under his control. And both may help explain, along with his perennial inability to accept losing, why Trump won’t acknowledge that President-elect Joe Biden is going to succeed him and why he has enlisted the Republican Party to help him gaslight Americans about the outcome of the presidential election.

    MORE : https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-11/why-trump-fears-leaving-the-white-house

  10. Fitzgibbon is now “free” to say what he likes (as if he didn’t before).

    Joel Fitzgibbon, who is now on the Labor backbench and is free to say whatever he wants, spoke to Laura Jayes on Sky News this morning, and said he believed Labor’s climate change shadow minister, Mark Butler, should be moved on from the portfolio.

    “He has been in that portfolio for seven years, we’ve lost two elections, we’ve had two climate change and energy policies that have not been embraced by the Australian people – in fact they’ve been rejected – and we need an advocate now that the community and industry can trust,” Fitzgibbon said.

    Remeikis:

    Fitzgibbon was in a regional portfolio every time Labor lost an election as well. Just for context.

  11. I, too, thought it a tad strange that we in the world were being implored to consider Trump’s feelings:

    For about 24 hours after the 2020 election was called for Joe Biden, Democrats and other opponents of fascism—which is to say, anti-fascists—danced in the streets in an outpouring of both joy and relief at the end of the most openly bigoted, corrupt and destructive presidential administration in the modern era.

    And then, like clockwork, the same awful people who have supported this awful president re-proved their awfulness, by issuing demands that everybody stop and think about how all this made Trump and his white supremacist cult feel—often with the implication that if Trump and his followers refuse to accept his defeat, maybe it didn’t really happen.

    Even before the celebrations began, former Republican Senator turned paid Trump sycophant Rick Santorum suggested Trump’s supporters need “time to figure this out,” and cautioned that “this is a very emotional” period for the president’s loser-supporting base. Megyn Kelly—the erstwhile Fox News correspondent who stoked white resentment over Black Lives Matter and race-baited a fake boogie-man out of the “New Black Panthers”—tweeted that Trump supporters have been unfairly “attacked relentlessly” and “demonized as the worst of humanity for 4yrs.” The Federalist senior editor Mollie Hemingway—who in a single recent TV news segment both claimed a Trump supporter who yelled “White power!” was being “sarcastic,” and then unironically bemoaned “people advocating hatred toward white people”—took to social media to defend tender Trumpian feelings, which she claimed the media has ignored for the last four years. “The behavior of some prominent people on the left is downright toxic and abusive” she wrote on Twitter, in defense of a man who’s been accused of sexual abuse by numerous women.

    …These people have the nerve to insist we attend to the emotional wants of those who made “Fuck Your Feelings” and “Make Liberals Cry Again” both their personal mantra and a ubiquitous merchandising tagline, who have been the loud and proud cheering section for hate, who have threatened and carried out racist violence, who explicitly elected this president to strategically harm Black folks and anyone else who they thought might be gaining on white power. Pleas for kindness toward members of the meanest, most selfish, deeply bigoted American political movement of my lifetime—delivered by the white lady who said Black people were being too sensitive about blackface, and the homophobe who compared LGBT relationships to “man on dog” sex—are par for the course for people who genuinely believe that the humanity of white Americans trumps everyone else’s.

    There is actually not much reason to be surprised that Trump’s supporters have proclaimed themselves the real victims here. It’s a master class in DARVO, or “Deny, Attack, and Reverse Victim and Offender,” a form of psychological abuse in which the perpetrator denies the violence they’ve inflicted and then pretends they are the party that’s been made to suffer. That’s the underlying idea behind Trumpism itself, a political ideology rooted in racial grievances that feel justified to petulant white supremacists convinced that a country which belongs to them is slowly being stolen. Trumpism was the salve that patched their self-pity and inadequacy, a whole movement that assured them their failures could be blamed on someone else. Frankly, it’s time they dealt with their delusions and coped with their failure to compete.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/fuck-his-feelings-trumps-a-loser-and-his-followers-are-whiners

  13. “For the millionth time, didn’t Boerwar have a set to with Mr Bowe and so he took his bat and ball and went home!?!”

    Mr Bowe rightly reprimanded him for his endless greens trolling, which frankly became boring and tedious. Such a shame for someone who otherwise had such interesting insights and contributions.

  14. Daily Brexit

    No Deal looms: The UK says they want to be able to do what they want to do whenever they decide to do whatever that will be. The EU says no one is stopping you, but if you do (this thing you already said you want to do) then we will protect ourselves.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/11/eu-summit-19-november-deadline-draft-brexit-deal

    RoI still hopes for the best as, the EU starts packing, NI gets nervous, and #10 hardens.
    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-eu-uk-deal-unlikely-this-week-and-talks-will-drag-on-says-irelands-foreign-minister-simon-coveney-12129938
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/11/eu-summit-19-november-deadline-draft-brexit-deal
    https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1112/1177593-food-drink-brexit/
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/11/brexit-uncertainty-may-cause-sugar-shortages-in-northern-ireland-warns-firm
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/11/vote-leave-lee-cain-tipped-as-next-downing-street-chief-of-staff

  15. National Conference was scheduled for around this time before covid came onto the scene. It has now been cancelled until next year. All of the argy bargy over climate policy and other issues would have been going on behind the scenes and would have been settled at National Conference or at least a truce put in place. In the absence of NC there is a vaccumn and “ internals” now appear to be playing out in public.

    It would appear that there is a real divide internally. What the Joel Fitzgibbon end game is I have no idea. Is Fitzgibbon the “ canary in the coal mine “ for risingn internal tensions or is he just flying solo ? I have no idea but the timing of his bomb throwing is interesting.

  18. sonar

    Sorry, this may not be much help but I’ve noticed the different browsers these days play differently with youtube. Maybe try Firefox, Opera, or Brave?

  19. Albanese has called a shadow cabinet meeting for 12.30 ( not real Queensland time ! ).

    Whether it is to address the ongoing Joel Fitsbibbon parade or other issues I have no idea. The only observation I would make is the timing is unusual for a sitting week and could lead to the thought that Albanese thinks there is some house cleaning to undertake on something of importance.

  20. doyley: “What the Joel Fitzgibbon end game is I have no idea. Is Fitzgibbon the “ canary in the coal mine “ for risingn internal tensions or is he just flying solo ? I have no idea but the timing of his bomb throwing is interesting.”

    Maybe its just as simple as it appears: Joel had a big blowup with Albo and Dreyfus at shadow cabinet because Albo finally grew a pair – and Joel suddenly realised his position on the front bench was untennable? No real grand strategy in that. The question now I suppose is what will Joel do now from the backbench. Who knows, but I did note that he seemed to be sounding conciliatory at his presser on Tuesday – making it clear that he wants Albo to lead to the election. He also explicitly endorsed the 2050 target, which I found noteworthy – given all the rhetoric we’ve been hearing about his alleged anti-climate, pro coal credentials.

  21. “I apologize for this and it’s totally off topic but is anyone else having problems with youtube videos not playing…….?”

    YES!!

  22. Bassstards.

    Meanwhile, in Naidoc week, the government has introduced legislation to move 25,000 people onto the cashless debit card – permanently.

  23. Big A,

    That could well be the case. It could be as simple as that.

    However, Fitzgibbon was interviewed this morning and called for Mark Butler to be removed from the climate portfolio. A very big call from a now back bencher and he would have been very aware what the fall out from that demand would be.

    If it is just Fitzgibbon having a tanty it is a very big one. I do not know what his strategy or reasoning is.

    Cheers.

  24. If it is just Fitzgibbon having a tanty it is a very big one. I do not know what his strategy or reasoning is.

    If youtube was working I would post a Skyhooks song.

  25. sonarsays: Thursday, November 12, 2020 at 11:54 am

    I apologize for this and it’s totally off topic but is anyone else having problems with youtube videos not playing…….?

    *************************************************************

    Seems to be a youtube issue Sonar

    It a no go globally.

    Updates posted on their twitter account https://twitter.com/TeamYouTube

    TeamYouTube@TeamYouTube

    If you’re having trouble watching videos on YouTube right now, you’re not alone – our team is aware of the issue and working on a fix. We’ll follow up here with any updates.

  26. When Fitzgibbon was bellyaching about ALP climate change policy, that’s one thing. But when he starts taking potshots at a shadow minister, calling for his removal from his portfolio, then that’s a whole other thing. He’s crossed a line.

  27. Albo should kick Fitzgibbon from the party and then say to Morrison, “Thant’s how you handle pests like Kelly, Canavan, Christensen, Abetz, etc!”

  28. Fulvio 10.29am

    You only need to visit a pound to see the consequences of unrestrained dog breeding.

    The rate of cancers caused from unrestrained dog rooting is also horrific.

  29. C@tmomma @ #66 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 10:11 am

    It’s part of a plan to enable the Repugs to blow through the December deadline for the Electoral College to be declared and thus Trump can continue his shenanigans. However, this great article debunks all of it:
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/11/can-donald-trump-stay-in-office-second-term-president-coup

    C@t, I wouldn’t go so far as to say debunk, but it details the steps involved (in the grab for power) and why it is unlikely. But the suppositions continue to be predicated on:

    ‘ifs’, as in

    “If the country continues to follow the rule of law, I see no plausible constitutional path forward for Trump to remain as president barring new evidence of some massive failure of the election system in multiple states,” {wrote} Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, who specializes in elections

    and gasps like ‘they wouldn’t do that, would they’ as in

    “It would be a naked, antidemocratic power grab to try to use state legislatures to get around the voters’ choice and I don’t expect it to happen.”

    One thing we know about Trump, and his toadies, is that nothing is off the table. He is attempting to overthrow the election. That is an attempted coup, and would be so called anywhere else, except in the beacon of democracy, not.

    Anyway, let us hope.

  32. Big A Adrian
    ““I apologize for this and it’s totally off topic but is anyone else having problems with youtube videos not playing…….?”

    YES!!”

    Me too! Was about to re-start my computer, assuming the problem was at my end.

  36. Kakurusays: Thursday, November 12, 2020 at 12:15 pm

    Me too! Was about to re-start my computer, assuming the problem was at my end.

    ******************************************************

    Updates posted on their twitter account https://twitter.com/TeamYouTube

    TeamYouTube@TeamYouTube

    If you’re having trouble watching videos on YouTube right now, you’re not alone – our team is aware of the issue and working on a fix. We’ll follow up here with any updates.

  38. Beyond pathetic

    David Fahrenthold
    @Fahrenthold
    ·
    2h
    NEW:
    @realdonaldtrump
    ‘s campaign promised “shocking” proof of fraud in Michigan.

    Instead, they provided a list of small-bore complaints from GOP poll-watchers about the ballot-counting room in Detroit, including:
    –Loud noises
    –Mean stares
    –A big man
    In poll watcher affidavits, Trump campaign offers no evidence of fraud in Detroit ballot-counting
    In sworn statements, Republican poll watchers complained of loud announcements and being “intimidated” by stares.
    washingtonpost.com

  39. Lars Von Trier @ #128 Thursday, November 12th, 2020 – 12:14 pm

    Fulvio 10.29am

    You only need to visit a pound to see the consequences of unrestrained dog breeding.

    My little Hearing Assistance Dog is a pound rescue. Nearly all the hearing assistance dogs until recently have been rescues. However with fewer dogs going through rescue, the Lions Hearing Dog HQ were finding it harder to get quality dogs. They are now taking puppies both from rescue and pedigree litters (sponsored) to keep up with demand.
    The pounds and rescues were almost emptied out earlier this year with people wanting to add a dog to their household during lockdown. Good timing in terms of settling a dog in, but as people return to work some could end up back where they came from.

    I do agree that most dogs should be desexed and only registered breeders allowed to keep entire dogs but things are generally improving.

  41. Snell & Wilmer withdraws from election lawsuit as Trump contests Arizona results

    The largest law firm representing the Trump campaign or its allies in post-election litigation challenging votes in key states has withdrawn from an election lawsuit in Maricopa County, Arizona.

  46. ‘Hugoaugogo’ reports on the other thread of the (expected) appointment of Ron Klain as Biden’s Chief of Staff.

    He’s worth a read up, but I’ll highlight this little snippet:

    Klain is married to Monica Medina, a lawyer and environmental activist who served as Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and is currently at the Walton Family Foundation.

    The Walton Family Foundation is that founded by the Waltons (Walmart) devoted to charter schools and the environment.

  47. What “luck” for Scrott

    The report into those alleged war crimes will be released next week

    .

    6m ago 01:36

    Scott Morrison is also off to Japan next week,

  49. SK,
    If youtube was working I would post a Skyhooks song.
    _________________________________
    Do you need a Packet of Twisties? Tudge, tudge, wink, wink.

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