Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 at the last result four weeks ago (a longer than usual gap owing to the interuption of the Queensland election), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 34% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). The report says Scott Morrison’s approval rating is at 64%, down one, but doesn’t provide disapproval (UPDATE: Up one to 32%). Anthony Albanese’s records better ratings after some weak results recently, at 43% approval (up four) and 39% disapproval (down four), but he continues to trail Morrison 58-29 as preferred prime minister, hardly changed from 57-28 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1510.
[‘Can Donald Trump pardon…himself?’]
Although it has never been judicially tested, and the US Constitution is silent on the issue (see Section 2, Clause 1), most likely “yes” given the obsequiousness & partisanship of the three he nominated for appointment to the SCOTUS:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-11/can-donald-trump-pardon-his-associates-or-himself/12871126
I cannot see Fitzgibbon as a “pragmatist”. The meaning of “pragmatist” is – someone who gets things done, and doesn’t sit on their hands complaining about what is happening. Fitzgibbon is indeed an “idealist” – it is simply that his ideas are on the nose!
Fitzgibbon was a member of shadow cabinet and was bound by cabinet solidarity. I am sure he prosecuted his position within shadow cabinet just as other members would have and then Albanese and fellow cabinet members reached a decision re the best way forward re climate action messaging. Fitzgibbon did not accept the decision, broke cabinet solidarity and correctly resigned as a consequence . Everything else is just noise.
He is now free to be loud and proud from the backbench as he is entitled.
Saying that I do think Fitzgibbon has a point re the pushing of the line that the Biden win was all down to his climate action policies and labor should take the win as a justification for more ambitious targets here in Australia. I find that argument tenuous and have yet to see any hard evidence to the effect that 75 million Americans voted for Biden because he was strong on climate. So many different moving parts in America that to conclude climate action was the clincher for Biden is “delusional “ or ambitious at best.
If you want to prosecute that argument for America you should be open to supporting the argument that the success of A.P. and labor in Queensland was a direct result of labor embracing the coal industry and its strong support for Adani. Every Townsville seat was retained by labor with increased majorities and not one regional seat was lost. Must be because of supporting coal !
In reality I find that proposition“delusional “ and tenuous because of the number of moving parts that framed the Queensland election but no more ‘ delusional “ and tenuous “ than “climate policy won it for Biden”.
However, I am sure commentators and posters will continue to frame the election results in the way that suits their agendas.
So be it.
phylactelle
“I cannot see Fitzgibbon as a “pragmatist”. The meaning of “pragmatist” is – someone who gets things done, and doesn’t sit on their hands complaining about what is happening. ”
He can only get things done if he and his party are in Government. That’s the crux of his pragmatism. From that perspective, he’s not wrong.
At the moment, Labor is heading for almost certain defeat at the next election. Albanese is making zero headway against a clearly certifiable PM.
________________________
Conversely, the genius of Shorten and the certitude of his long reign was maintained by many on here and despite two election losses there would still be some support for his return. Albo has not even had a chance to run even one election campaign as OL yet.
I reckon Chalmers is worth a go- Labor has to make a break from the past at some stage and move to the new generation after 9 years in opposition (by the next poll)…..I think the public will respond well to a new face, the media will have a new narrative and the QLD link is sorely needed.
Recommended reading- how everything connected with Trump is corrupted.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/trail-of-evil-donald-trump/33922/
I know there will be those who disagree, but Joel Fitzgibbon is far more of an asset to the progressive side of politics than a hundred Bob Brown convoys.
Let’s see how this US election is progressing in terms of earlier predictions:
– POTUS sows seeds of voter fraud surrounding mail in ballots – tick
– POTUS urges followers to vote in person, Biden by mail – tick
– In person votes show POTUS leading only to be overtaken by Biden once counting of mail-ins commences – tick
– POTUS claims early victory, then that the vote was rigged – tick
– POTUS refuses to concede & begins whipping up misinformation about Biden victory – tick
Predictions of events still to come:
– egged on by POTUS republican state legislatures refuse to accept popular vote appointing their own people tipping election to POTUS
– protests lead to riots as US descends into civil war
Seriously hoping this doesn’t happen but it’s looking more & more worrying as the days go by.
I am no fan of Albanese but some people need to get a grip on realty.
At a time when every opposition leader and party in every state and territory is struggling for relevance and governments, liberal and labor, and their leaders are enjoying huge leads in the polls people keep going on about how bad Albanese is.
Albanese is currently enjoying positive satisfaction ratings and has labor in a competitive position at 49-51. Given the air time and media space Morrison is receiving Albanese has done extremely well.
Calls for Albanese to go at this time are bullshit and driven by individual agendas and or ignorance. Take your pick.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/11/groom-australias-most-boring-by-election.html
Groom: Australia’s Most Boring By-Election?
I know there will be those who disagree, but Joe de Bruin was far more of an asset to the progressive side of politics than a hundred Bob Brown convoys. /s
I liked the reminder that Morison only has a very narrow margin in the HOR. Wasn’t that given as the probable reason that he won’t demote/fire anyone – or even offend them?
Kakuru @ #1353 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 1:21 pm
This is untrue. But even if it were true, the problem with it is that it is the gibbons who made sure Lbor would not win office last time. And they will do it again next time if they are given the chance.
Albo has a once-in-a-career opportunity to demonstrate he is no longer beholden to the gibbons. To make it clear that the gibbon viewpoint has no influence in the party he leads. That the gibbons are in fact working against the interests of the very Australians they have been elected to represent. They should be told simply to shut up or leave.
I don’t hold out much hope that Albo will step up, but I don’t think we will have to wait long to find out.
phylactella
I don’t necessarily disagree. Bob Brown’s convoy was about as useful as a chocolate teapot.
Q: Seriously hoping this doesn’t happen but it’s looking more & more worrying as the days go by…..I was worried about that when Biden was a line ball winner, now he is a few states past the 270 figure I think the buffer might protect him.
Torchbearer,
Trump will go, he’s just worried about debts. Thats the reason to keep the fire alive.
He wants himself out of that place as much as everyone else does.
Why is Christian Porter the only member in the house who has a name tag on back of his seat , doesn’t he know where to sit ?
Scott
Perhaps they know that on days he’s had an adequate lunch he might not be able to find it.
I am liking that Amy on Guardian Blog is now inserting fact-checking comments.
I think one or two of the others are as well.
I may have, from time to time, mentioned my Kindle Reader.
Handy hint for intrepid across the Amazon type voyagers.
Be careful with attempting to change batteries. When punctured they may heat and catch fire.
The good news is that my brand new store bought plum coloured Kindle will arrive Express delivery within days.
And the dog sat on the tucker box….
Good afternoon my friends.
lol lizzie
Oh Amy!!!!!!
“Michael McCormack is McCormacking all over the place today.
He is always at his worse when he’s impressed with himself.
It’s a pretty low bar.”
The speaker should be sitting Frydenberg down , the question is specifically to Morrison, on the decision Morrison has made for the coalition not to back their senator counterparts
Labor sleeping at the wheel by allowing Morrison not to answer
The love for Jim Chalmers on here is gag worthy. He is the definition of where Labor should not go near. A boring neoliberal tool that has the charisma moldy sock dipped in bleach.
Not saying Albo is the opposite. But if someone is to replace him, Chalmers would be terrible.
doyley @ #1354 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 1:43 pm
Fitzgibbon has now set himself up to overthrow Albanese.
He will be recruiting all those lemmings in the caucus beholden to the fossil fuel cartel unions.
I think he’s a big chance to be the LOTO for the 2022 election.
@Roy Orbison
You suggest Labor is almost certain to lose the next election the way they are going, but if you topple Anthony Albanese and run with Jim Chalmers and it goes pear shaped. All you have achieved is knocking out two prospective leaders at the price of one.
I like your last comment ‘I reckon he is worth a go’. And if he loses who else will be worth a go at the leadership? The over enthusiastic Chalmers supporters on here remind me of some Julia Gillard backers who were happy to champion her toppling of Kevin Rudd and then opportunistically abandoned her when it got tough.
No surprise, now we know more about Porter’s history. He probably didn’t chew his pen for very long when sneaking that one in.
Political Nightwatchman
There is a constant rumble that Tania Plibersek should be the next leader. I thought Tania had dismissed that.
” Fitzgibbon has now set himself up to overthrow Albanese. ”
Fitzgibbon hasn’t got the balls. In any case he hasn’t got the support and he knows it. Fitzgibbon in 2022 is a non starter.
These days politics gets discussed more than psephology. Has there been any comment on this article? As an occasional user of travel behaviour survey data for work I am pretty aghast if Australian political pollsters have not been correcting for education level. That is standard in many fields of behavioural research.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/11/opinion-poll-failure-at-australian-federal-election-systematically-over-represented-labor
Political Nightwatchman @ #1376 Wednesday, November 11th, 2020 – 2:20 pm
Yes, I agree that Labor is very likely to lose if they don’t do something drastic – and do it soon.
But your argument seems to be that Labor should stay with Albo rather than risk exposing how low they are on talent. I don’t think this is a good reason to just accept losing. First of all, it is already clear to anyone who has been paying attention, so you are not really giving much away – but more important is that we pay these people the big bucks to fight our corner, not huddle in it, too afraid to go down fighting.
Should Porter be answering about protection of workers ?
Morrison was sleeping at the wheel there
Andrew Wilkie to Paul Fletcher.
Fletcher replies with the usual gaslighting about all the extra staff they are allowing etc. etc., but instead of making any comment about the burden on people who miss medical appointments or get penalised by Centrelink, he simply accuses Labor of not caring, wtte “We’ve introduced the regulations and now it’s up to AusPost”.
It’s not Christmas parcels they’re complaining about, you insensitive twerp.
@Socrates
It’s been mentioned. I’d assume William would have a post about it, being highly relevant to a pseph blog.
That headline annoys me though – the polls didn’t overestimate Labor directly, they oversampled people who a) take an interest in politics and b) are more educated. This is the key to understanding the problem – the polls aren’t capturing the opinion of the “low information voters”.
It just happens that people who are educated and give a shit about the future of Australia and the world in general lean left!
‘There is a constant rumble that Tania Plibersek should be the next leader. I thought Tania had dismissed that.’
I hadn’t read or heard that. Whether the ‘constant rumble’ is comments on this blog or sources in the media you could maybe elaborate. I read in an article a couple weeks ago that it’s Chalmers but the article also suggests its from ‘some of his colleagues’ meaning not everyone may have that view.
Tanya Plibersek said she wouldn’t contest the leadership from last election because of family reasons. I get the sense the disappointment from the loss was pretty tough on her.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-17/jim-chalmers-next-in-line-labor-leader-coronavirus-future/12772808
Oral argument on the ACA today went to the statutory interpretation doctrine of severability, which the Supreme Court reaffirmed. That is to say that if a section(s) of the Act is found to be unconstitutional, illegal, or unenforceable, the remainder of it still applies. This is a promising development for those who would lose their health insurance if the Act in toto was to be declared ultra vires of the Congress, which is the central argument of the plaintiff states.
Awkward…. The Times Called Officials in Every State: No Evidence of Voter Fraud
PHILADELPHIA — Election officials in dozens of states representing both political parties said that there was no evidence that fraud or other irregularities played a role in the outcome of the presidential race, amounting to a forceful rebuke of President Trump’s portrait of a fraudulent election.
Over the last several days, the president, members of his administration, congressional Republicans and right wing allies have put forth the false claim that the election was stolen from Mr. Trump and have refused to accept results that showed Joseph R. Biden Jr. as the winner.
But top election officials across the country said in interviews and statements that the process had been a remarkable success despite record turnout and the complications of a dangerous pandemic.
“There’s a great human capacity for inventing things that aren’t true about elections,” said Frank LaRose, a Republican who serves as Ohio’s secretary of state. “The conspiracy theories and rumors and all those things run rampant. For some reason, elections breed that type of mythology.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/us/politics/voting-fraud.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Political Nightwatchman
It’s not from PB.
I have noticed that every time Tania makes a public speech or appears on a panel, someone pops up saying that she should be made LOO. As it happens, she has been speaking publicly more often lately.
‘Yes, I agree that Labor is very likely to lose if they don’t do something drastic – and do it soon.
But your argument seems to be that Labor should stay with Albo rather than risk exposing how low they are on talent. I don’t think this is a good reason to just accept losing. First of all, it is already clear to anyone who has been paying attention, so you are not really giving much away – but more important is that we pay these people the big bucks to fight our corner, not huddle in it, too afraid to go down fighting.’
@Player One
Yeah but ‘go down fighting’ doesn’t necessary meaning changing leaders like changing underpants. We have seen this routine too often and if we don’t learn from history were are condemn to repeat it. The new leadership rules were put in place to give the Labor party stability in terms of the leadership position. NSW state Labor behavior before they lost government of toppling premiers at a whim is not what I call ‘go down fighting’.
In WashPo..
‘Six states where President Trump has threatened to challenge his defeat continued their march toward declaring certified election results in the coming weeks, as his advisers privately acknowledged that President-elect Joe Biden’s official victory is less a question of “if” than “when.”
Trump began the day tweeting about “BALLOT COUNTING ABUSE” as he and his allies touted unproven claims that fraud had tainted the election in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Vice President Pence gave a presentation to Republican senators on Capitol Hill about new litigation expected in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia — imploring them to stick with the president, according to several Republicans in the room.
But even some of the president’s most publicly pugilistic aides, including White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and informal adviser Corey Lewandowski, have said privately that they are concerned about the lawsuits’ chances for success unless more evidence surfaces, according to people familiar with their views.
Trump met with advisers again Tuesday afternoon to discuss whether there is a path forward, said a person with knowledge of the discussions, who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions. The person said Trump plans to keep fighting but understands it is going to be difficult. “He is all over the place. It changes from hour to hour,” the person said.
In the states, Democratic and some Republican officials said they have seen no evidence of fraud on a scale sufficient to overturn the results. “There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud,” one GOP official in Georgia said.
As soon as the words “Project Veritas” popped up in the article the bullshit bells in the Tower of Turditity were ringing so hard that they nearly flew out out of the bell tower.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/postal-worker-fabricated-ballot-pennsylvania/2020/11/10/99269a7c-2364-11eb-8599-406466ad1b8e_story.html
Wait, what did I miss? Is Labor having another spill? That’s the tone of the comments on this page from you Laborites.
In all seriousness, if Albo can’t win over you lot (the “True Believers”) then he really does have massive issues.
Free thoughts for all,
Labor are bleeding voters because they don’t stand for anything significant that is shared by enough people. A lot of people pay tax. And the government is loose with their money, through incompetence and corruption. Being pissed off about wasted money is a shared thing. Being a union hack isn’t
Corruption is not a Fair shake of the sauce bottle. It’s not a fair go…
Labor can fight, and win. It needs to pick battles that are harder for the government to fight on. Sexism, Corruption. Being old ,and out of step with the future. These are good topics.
TW, QT on the middle days is always a let down. It’s been a let down for a few years now actually.
hey poroti
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/30/world/asia/new-zealand-post-covid.html
Joel Fitzgibbon is concerned that Labor is alienating its traditional “blue collar, working class” base by concentrating on inner-city voters and their concerns about the environment.
That shows how far Jolly Joel has drifted from changing reality in recent times. Surely, Labor’s base also includes these same inner-city and suburban workers who may not work in mining, but who are worried about the future if nothing is done to address climate change.
In any case, not all blue collar workers, not even most, are employed in the mining industry. Many of them are also concerned about climate change.
If Labor were to adopt the government’s so-called emissions-reduction policy – 26% by 2030 and no target beyond that – it might satisfy a few of Fitzgibbon’s constituents in the mining industry. If Labor also decided to go along with Morrison’s gas expansion plan, it might delight a few people who can’t see a future for themselves outside old industries.
But it would also sure as hell alienate a lot of existing Labor supporters and probably lead to mass resignations from the party. I could easily see the Greens finally capturing a lot of traditional Labor seats.
When Joel Fitzgibbon says Labor must listen to the people, he is thinking about his own electorate.
It is difficult for those working in the fossil fuels industry and MPs who happen to represent them to grasp the future. But there is no way to deny that action must be taken on climate change and that means progressive reductions in fossil fuel use. In any case, renewable energy is becoming more efficient and cheaper and will ultimately displace fossil fuels.
Hard truths are never easy to speak and even more difficult to accept. But the Joel Fitzgibbons of this world and their constituents have to accept that things cannot go on being the same.
Had a happy thought..
If for some reason, Trump doesn’t step down and doesn’t get Pence to pardon him before Jan 20, that leaves the Democrats with a powerful threat. Hey Mitch, if you don’t pass these reforms, we’ll prosecute Trump! 🙂
Socrates says:
Wednesday, November 11, 2020 at 2:24 pm
These days politics gets discussed more than psephology.
…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/11/opinion-poll-failure-at-australian-federal-election-systematically-over-represented-labor
Socrates I read it, this was the standout paragraph for me.
While the panel said it was grateful for the cooperation it received, “the lack of access to datasets and detailed descriptions of the survey methods and statistical techniques used by the pollsters materially affected our ability to identify the specific factors that contributed to the inaccuracy of the polls”.