Things other than Queensland and the US

Some minor news on the local opinion polling front to keep things ticking over.

With the last open thread threatening to fall off the bottom page amid a thicket of Queensland and US-specific posts, here’s a refresher. Newspoll is having an off-week to avoid Queensland election static, although Essential Research should be along with its fortnightly attitudinal results tomorrow. All I have to relate other than that is:

• There has apparently been progress in the establishing of an Australian Polling Council, potentially meaning a new age of full disclosure by pollsters of their weights and breakdowns. Its members are YouGov, Essential Research, Ipsos, uComms, JWS Research, Lonergan Research and Telereach.

• The Australia Institute has published a report on attitudes to climate change that I’m a little too busy for right now, but you can find it here.

Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group discusses polling conducted in September showing 57% of Melburnians think the state Liberal opposition has not “played a constructive role during this pandemic.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

663 comments on “Things other than Queensland and the US”

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    Black women and other women of colour are running as Democratic candidates in winnable seats for Congress…..the candidates the faux/FF/N sneeringly describe as the ‘establishment’.

    The faux would hardly lift a finger to support or encourage women if they wear the Democratic badge.

    A record number of women, including a record number of women of color, could be elected to Congress on Tuesday, in what would represent a further step towards a US government that represents the makeup of the nation.

    An unprecedented 318 women are running as Democrat or Republican candidates for the 535 seats available across the House of Representatives and the Senate, up from a previous record of 257 set in 2018.

    Of those candidates 117 are women of color, building on the midterm elections of two years ago which saw high profile women such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, in New York, and Ilhan Omar, in Minnesota, elected.

    In Missouri, Cori Bush, a nurse who cut her teeth politically during anti-police brutality protests in Ferguson in 2014, is likely to be elected to the House of Representatives for the state’s first district. The election of Bush, a progressive, would be a boost for the left of the Democratic party.

    Bush would be the first black woman to represent Missouri in Congress. The first district includes St Louis and Ferguson, where she rose to prominence as a fearless activist after the police shooting of Michael Brown.

    Teresa Leger Fernandez is expected to clinch a victory in New Mexico. If elected she would join Deb Haaland, a Native American woman who was elected in 2018, in the House.

  2. I kind of assume the horses, like elite athletes, are so finely tuned nowadays that catastrophic injury is nigh.

    For the footballer a reconstruction and a year off – for a horse, a trip across the rainbow bridge.

  3. Itza and EGT

    The new era will come wth generational change. Biden will, I hope, help oversee the slow sequestering of the rancid right flank of the Repugs with less social discord. What Biden will immediately reset is the world dial on Global Warming.

    1980—the election of Mr Reagan—was the first Presidential election in which the boomer “generation” was numerically the largest (both in eligibility and in voting). 2020 is the first Presidential election (since 1976) in which the boomer “generation” in which the boomer “generation” is not numerically the largest (in eligibility, and possibly also in voting). Obviously there is a complex classification problem in the concept of “generation”, but times (they) are (a) changin…

    Reagan was the first major politician to politicise climate change – he saw that he could make political mileage out of obfuscating about / discrediting the reality, and making it a “moral majority / culture wars” issue.

    He used the same tactics (and many of the same people) that creation science and big tobacco had used to sow doubt in people’s minds about evolution and harm from tobacco.

  4. BB
    Apart from the Trump fan we thought Charles was a bit over the top in decrying Biden and pumping up Trump on #thedrum

    Then we realised that if Trump loses Planet America has no reason to continue. The whole thing is about ztrump.

  5. No races, no race horses. The industry shoots a few race horse. The Greens want to destroy the species, no doubt posting while they eat their hamburger.

  6. You’re right by me Doyley.

    The campaign against the Melbourne Cup is emblematic of the failure and wasted energy of left politics.

    Hope you backed a winner today mate.

  7. Guitar
    Horse racing was really important during The Depression as an outlet for working people. Many unemployed worked a few hours on race days for horse stables – one of my Uncles among them.
    Gave him and his mates a life long love of racing.
    The father of a school friend was an SP bookie and the Brothers at Sacred Heart College In SA used to give my friend money for his Dad to put on the horses. A very diverse group loves racing.

  8. Spray @ #587 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 6:13 pm

    ItzaDream @ #571 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 5:40 pm

    lizzie @ #566 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 5:34 pm

    This is swearworthy.

    Sky News Australia
    · 2h
    .@ScottMorrisonMP and senior ministers are fielding calls from all over the world on how well Australia has done on virtually eliminating the coronavirus, Sky News Political Editor @aclennell says.

    the prefix they are looking for is +61 3 ………

    You don’t think any other states deserve any credit?

    Sure they do, but if were recommending who to call on how to recalibrate and head to zero from a nasty spike, how to stay fast, and stare down the rabid dogs baying for political blood, I’d be saying, call Dan.

  9. Zerlo said:

    Melbourne cup should be banned after another horse during Melbourne cup race has passed away:

    My mate was killed in a car accident, ban driving.
    My Dad died of a stroke, ban strokes.
    ban suicide.
    ban Trump.
    ban stupidity.
    ban the whole world.
    See? it’s really easy.

  10. bill says:
    Tuesday, November 3, 2020 at 8:05 pm

    No it’s not easy.

    Humans have choices, animals do not when they get abused by humans who always have a choice to say yes or no.

    Just like they were hoarding toilet paper, they’re hoarding guns’: October breaks record for US gun sales
    With a nation on edge, it may be no surprise that gun sales are through the roof in the US.

    Americans have purchased almost 17 million guns so far in 2020, more than in any other single full year on record, according to Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting, a research company that tracks firearms.

  12. Puffy
    Lovely story. I didn’t know that dingoes have been here thousands of years. Thought it was much shorter than that.

    Our little Jug, the barking monster that we rescued 5 years ago, turned into a gorgeous fella. Sadly we said goodbye a few weeks ago. He had bone cancer in his nose which made breathing difficult. We only had a week from diagnosis so OH was devastated.
    He was 13.5 yrs but gone too soon for us.
    Hope your dogs are fine.

  13. From Talking Points Memo…

    A federal judge has rejected the request by Republican candidates and activists in Texas that the court toss the 125,000-plus ballots that had been cast through Harris County’s drive-thru voting option.

    U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, a very conservative George W. Bush appointee, announced Monday that he was throwing out the lawsuit because the Republicans who brought it didn’t meet the procedural threshold to warrant a federal court’s intervention.

    The judge is a Bush appointee.

    Of course he’s going to be a Never-Trumper.

  14. Dingos are believed to have arrived in Australia about 3,500 to 4,000 years ago. It begs the question of who brought them here and why. It also means that there was contact between some Indigenous Australians and the outside world thousands of years ago.

  15. Steve777 @ #616 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 7:41 pm

    Rudd’s petition is closing on 470,000 signatures with a bit over 28 hours to go. Half a million is probably unattainable but still a great effort, even though nothing will come of it.

    470,000 plus signatures has a certain gravitas. Although there’s no way the current government will take action, it has some risks for News Corp.
    In the lead up to the next election (feels like the campaigning has already started) does News Corp go full Murdoch and what would be the consequences of that if Labor were to win?
    Did the petition involve strategising between Rudd and Albanese? I don’t know, but Rudd may yet have a role to play, and earn some vindication, in and ALP win. I’m just speculating but seems the federal ALP are laying some good groundwork, inc. Aus Post. If News Corp ramp-up their usual anti-ALP bile, I would expect to see some agitation from outside the ALP for truth in media laws. High risk for ALP, but what have they got to loose?

  16. Americans have purchased almost 17 million guns so far in 2020, more than in any other single full year on record, according to Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting, a research company that tracks firearms.

    I wonder though for how many gun owners this is a second, third or more gun. You can only “use” one at a time. Really interesting would be knowing the total number of military style weapons in circulation, and in which cities.

  17. Sr Anne (Sisters of Saint Joseph) ran St Margaret’s Obstetric Hospital in Sydney’s then rough and tumble Darlinghurst with a firm hand and a deep love of children. She was a short slight woman, with keen eyes and a careful smile. Her other love was the horseys and she was a keen punter with connections. Many a premmie baby boy would grow up to become a jockey, so the story goes.

  18. Thanks, BB

    He spent his first 8 years in a back yard in Tuncurry. It backed on to the canal, only chicken wire fence at rear so he spent his days racing up and down the fence line, barking! Pelicans, seagulls, noats, jet skis – apparently he hated them all.
    We took him and he became a house dog. Like yours, spoiled rotten.

    Puffy helped with advice on the barking but it took 2 years to control it. Would love another one but we don’t want a dog to outlive us.

    We can babysit the grandkids’ dogs if we get desperate.

  19. Q: I wonder though for how many gun owners this is a second, third or more gun… I read recently that gun owner numbers have plummeted in recent years, but the number of guns people owned has increased.
    Guns are a costly, discretionary, useless item for most people, and dont have much appeal to young people.

  20. The dilemmas facing US media and social media companies if Trump carries through with his threat to declare victory while vote counting is still proceeding:

    If President Trump comes out and prematurely claims victory on Election Night, what will television networks and social media websites do?

    The scenario — undemocratic and unthinkable in the past but a very real possibility with Trump seeking to stay in power — is causing media and tech executives to debate potential responses.

    For the major television networks, one question is paramount: Will they carry Trump live if he is giving a speech and making completely specious claims?

    The short answer is yes. Though network executives are reluctant to talk publicly about such a hypothetical and disturbing scenario, five people at various networks said on condition of anonymity that they fully expect the President’s Election Night remarks to be shown live virtually wall to wall.

    However, any premature claims by the President — or by Joe Biden, for that matter, though there is no equivalent fear of that happening — will be wrapped in televised context, with vigorous corrections and visual proof that the race is too close to call.

    One plan publicly described by NBC News president Noah Oppenheim has been echoed by leaders at other networks, including CNN.

    “We are prepared to aggressively fact-check any effort by anyone to mischaracterize the status of the race or the results of the race prematurely,” Oppenheim told The Hollywood Reporter.

  21. Would love another one but we don’t want a dog to outlive us.

    We can babysit the grandkids’ dogs if we get desperate.

    Know that feeling exactly. We’re in our sixties, but the little buggers can live for decades.

    We content ourselves with rent-a-dogs nowadays. In Smith’s Lake there is ALWAYS a dog willing to be spoilt rotten.

  22. Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison announced in a surprising interview earlier today, that the Federal Government had partnered with national supermarket retailers Coles and Woolworths, to introduce HomebrandKeeper.

    “Australians can look forward to an abundance of cheap wine, copper, barley, coal, sugar, timber and lobster from Friday. This is the obviously one of the easier ways to kick start the covid normal economy.”, Morrison said. “And with HomebrandKeeper providing tax payer remuneration to established well off retailers, with little to no effort in marketing.”

    The Australian Federal Government has been in a contentious stalemate with Australian States, with covid health and social accountability from state government impacting the federal revenue stream collected from a national Goods and Service Tax (GST).

    “When I saw there would be little no effort in marketing, the scheme immediately appealed to me”, Morrison added. “Sure, Chinese trade deals are important, but recovery begins at home, where prices are down, down, down.”

    Although China was threatening to cut off imports from Friday, Morrison explained “We fixed that Labor mess we inherited too. Foreign policy is something that changes every 4 years, and it’s not surprising China was concerned. But the introduction of HomebrandKeeper puts their concerns to bed, by redirecting supply locally, before it can be cut off.”

    Export industries are, of course, also concerned that domestic producers and consumers might expect higher quality and cheaper prices goods be sold locally, without importing lower quality and more expensive goods. “I’ll assure you, Australia will continue importing from China and that’s what matters. A little debt now to balance things out, is not strictly a bad thing”, Morrison said. “Our lobster industry is just as entitled to support, as a girl’s changing room locker.”

    Chinese officials at first declined to comment on foreign policy constantly under negotiation, later adding that more foreign policy negotiations would depend on the outcome of American Elections, currently underway.

  23. That Republican fan on The Drum was so obviously in love with Trump it was more like a cult. No matter how much he lies the faithful accept his words. Like a religion. I find that so frightening.

  24. torchbearer @ #628 Tuesday, November 3rd, 2020 – 7:47 pm

    Q: I wonder though for how many gun owners this is a second, third or more gun… I read recently that gun owner numbers have plummeted in recent years, but the number of guns people owned has increased.
    Guns are a costly, discretionary, useless item for most people, and dont have much appeal to young people.

    That’s encouraging, a little. But I think it depends where you live. In an affluent “white” area I think you’re probably right. But I’ve read stories describing that where the author grew up a gun was necessary because the knowledge you had it helped keep certain people away. (By the time they could publish anything that I would read they had moved out of that area.)

  25. On dogs, they’re the best people you can hope to meet. On getting old with a dog, are there animal rescue organisations for old dogs where you live? When we lived in the USA we were lucky to be able give three elderly German Shepherds a good last couple of years. It’s very rewarding, and the dogs love you for it.

  26. Itza
    It was a different era in racing which Guytaur hasn’t known.
    The media certainly only show the wealth in it now.

    6 dogs in 62 years with all living long lives has certainly taught us we’re past it now. Actually it’s an awful realisation too. Uggh!

  27. Late Riser
    Yes, it is rewarding. All ours have been rescued and we’re too scared to look at dog ads. We might give in and OH really is too ill now.

    We tell the kids it’s their turn to have an open door for them now.

    Well at least my mind is wandering from that scarey election.

  28. Despite appeals from the president and his son, few of his supporters have shown up to watch early voting. One explanation: The task is just too boring.

    Anyone who has ever handed out HTVs, stood for hours arguing the toss with people who’ve already made up their minds and (God forbid!) scrutineered, will realise the truth of the statement above.

    What are you gonna do? Shoot ’em?

    Let’s hope things stay that way: boring.

    My feeling is that, as it becomes apparent Trump has lost, his cronies, toadies and fanboys in the government service will find themselves “otherwise engaged”, either on the phone to their lawyers, or their agents, looking for either absolution or a new job. It’ll be a case of “Donald… who?”.

    Trump has never been popular or liked by “people that matter”. He is seen as a crass, rather down-market real estate chancer, with a taste in trophy, but tacky wives, not really to be invited into polite society. He’ll either go quietly, or be told to do so.

  29. One comes on a thread entitled “Things OTHER than Queensland and the US” and the Ozmerican cultists infest the place. 🙂

    They do not realise that one can get help to escape unhealthy cults!

  30. He’ll either go quietly, or be told to do so.

    That’s the thought for the day. Trump may find out what loyalty really means.

  31. Horse racing does nothing for me. It must be a labor thing.
    Even the feel good story of Michelle Payne is now tainted by Weir and his jiggers.

  32. Regarding Doyley and his comments re racing. I have been a lukewarm fan of racing for most of my life. I went to Randwick today for the first time in yonks and actually came out a little in front. When word got around that Anthony Van Dyck had been put down people were devastated. Who wouldn’t be? As usual, we have the far left trying to ban everything that doesn’t fit into their own perfect world. Coal. Nuclear. Racehorses. The list is endless.

    About ten years ago, I was talked into buying into a couple of horses. Cost me a fortune and only then did I realise how many live off racing. They charge you for literally everything. Our first horse was stabled at Kembla Grange and we were charged $700 to transport that horse the four hundred or so metres to the track stables (and back). Then there are the vets. The farriers. Trackwork jockeys. On and on it goes. Where are these people, and there are thousands and thousands of them, going to go when the saintly Greens take away their livelihoods? By the way, some horses DO have a say in whether they want to participate. Our first, and by far the most expensive, decided very early on that he didn’t want to be a racehorse. Simply did not want to run near other horses. So he went from a $90k yearling to a $1k gymkhana horse looked after by a teenage girl. What a life!

    I see that they have set their sights on other activities, such as golf. The Greens in Sydney have already targeted courses such as Randwick, Eastlakes, Moore Park, Marrickville and others to be turned into dog walking parks and “picnic areas”. How nice. Hudson Park, a nice little pitch and putt, is gone, replaced by four foot high weeds. Everyone’s a winner! I’m sure the Greens realise that the ones missing out are those golfers – again untold thousands all over the country – on public and therefore cheaper courses. Does anyone really think the Greens are going to march into The Australian or Royal Sydney? Royal Melbourne? Kooyonga in Adelaide? I don’t think so.

    There is a “dog walking park” at the end of my street which will very soon become the sporting fields of UNSW (thanks to yet another very dirty deal between Gladys and UNSW, who are redeveloping the Village Green on the main campus). That park at present is a weed infested wasteland full of junk and dogshit left behind by walkers on an everyday basis, completely ignorant of the fact that all of their refuse leeches into the nearby East Lakes. How very Green of them. When this goes, they hope to be moved onto Eastlake GC, which is right alongside. It is pristine, manicured to within an inch of it’s life by the ground staff, which are paid by the thousand or so members who also maintain a licensed club which, guess what, employs people. And guess what else happens on this public golf course every day when those public members AND general public are finished with it? It becomes are park where people are welcome to walk their dogs. But no. The Greens want it all. That’s just how they roll.

    For what it’s worth, my view is that the Melbourne Cup should be cut back to 20 or perhaps 18 runners. And maybe back to 2400m. 24 tired horses getting in each others way at the business end of the race (where the accidents happen) is simply too many. It won’t be perfect but the numbers about the Cup simply don’t lie. But I’m sure that’s not pure enough for the totally pure.

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