10.21pm. Most of the bugs in my election results facility have resolved now (though there’s still a few odd quirks that I’ll hopefully be able to iron out this evening), so if you have any sort of interest in the late counting, I suggest this is the place to follow it. Certainly it’s the best place to observe results at booth level – a lot of effort has been done to condense these into something manageable out of the needless thicket of detail published by the ECQ. And if you do find that of use, you might also care to tip some pennies into my tip jar, which takes the form of the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.
10.06pm. The ABC is now projecting (but not calling) 51 seats for Labor, so it seems there may have been a dynamic where the late-reporting pre-polls leaned in their favour & though they may also done put them under a little more pressure from the Greens in McConnel and Cooper.
10.00pm. Antony Green relating that there has been a turn in Labor’s favour in both Townsville and Thuringowa, where the first especially looked doubtful for them through the night.
9.52pm. My live results facility is a lot less screwy now that I’ve turned booth-matching off (although there are still some clangers: Labor is assuredly not winning Hill and Scenic Rim, nor the LNP McConnel and Rockhampton).
9.44pm. The Greens have narrowed the gap against the LNP in the race for second in McConnel, which would give them a chance of overhauling Labor on their preferences if they bridged it. If this is part of a pre-poll trend, it could give them a shot at a third seat. That’s without factoring in Cooper, which is similarly placed and remains a wild card, though there too the Greens are third on the primary vote, and will presumably not do well on postals.
9.43pm. The ABC computer is now calling for Pumicestone for Labor, which means both the networks have Labor in majority government territory.
9.38pm. The Nine Network’s system is apparently more bullish for Labor than the ABC’s, projecting 50 seats.
9.30pm. Three LNP seats starting with C, Chatsworth, Clayfield and Currumbin, are now being rated as LNP retain by the ABC after earlier being rated in doubt.
9.23pm. Antony Green relates that the ECQ’s feed is lacking two-party preferred data for seats in the second half of the alphabet, so presumably the ABC is going off preference estimates for all those seats.
8.38pm. I note that high-profile Clive Palmer candidate Greg Downling is vying for North Queensland First for last past in a large field in Townsville. Palmer’s part is on 0.6% statewide.
8.35pm. I believe we’ve hit the lull in counting that characteristically sets in when the booths have wrapped up their count (easily done in the current climate) and we’re hanging on for the much larger early voting centres.
8.33pm. Labor would lose its majority with a net loss of two seats. They could lose two seats to the Greens — certainly South Brisbane and quite possibly Cooper (the Greens have fallen to third in McConnel). Conversely, they have gained Caloundra. There are a whole bunch of seats they could win off the LNP, but the only one that looks really strong for them is Pumicestone, where they have a strong lead although the count there is slow. However, they are in at least some danger of losing Redlands, Redcliffe, Thuringowa and Townsville, though my money would be on them in first three. What’s clear is that the LNP won’t have a majority — the question is whether enough of the close seats go against Labor to put them in a precarious minority position. But another small Labor majority is at least as likely.
8.18pm. It’s now lineball in Coomera, an LNP-held seat on the Gold Coast.
8.11pm. Counterbalancing the trouble Labor may be in in Redcliffe, the ABC computer suggests the possibility of a Labor boilover in Clayfield, held by former LNP leader Tim Nicholls. My feeling would be that both incumbents will hang on, but time will tell.
8.07pm. I haven’t mentioned Cooper yet, a potential fourth seat for the Greens. Basically it’s a three-way mash-up on the primary vote, and my guess would be that the Greens will win if it’s the LNP that drops out. My assumption was of a strong flow of LNP preferences to the Greens, given the LNP’s tactic of putting Labor last on how-to-votes, but it seems others aren’t so sure.
8.04pm. Steven Miles on the ABC hearing better information for Labor from Redcliffe, if I heard him correctly.
8.03pm. Chatsworth is close, as it usually is, but both my and Antony’s projections have it as a narrow LNP retain.
8.01pm. Antony notes that Labor may have a problem in the north Brisbane seat of Redcliffe, which would be a quirky result if so (causing me to be cautious).
8.00pm. I forgot about Burleigh in my Gold Coast review, where surfing legend Wayne Bartholemew may bed doing the trick for Labor, at least to the extent that it’s close.
7.57pm. The Sunshine Coast trend to Labor is relatively subdued in Glass House, but this being a very tight LNP-held seat, it’s certainly in play.
7.55pm. Down to the wire in Currumbin, but otherwise the Gold Coast doesn’t seem to bringing home any bacon for Labor. There is a big swing to the LNP swing in Bonney for some reason (partly sophomore surge effect).
7.53pm. My Sunshine Coast review missed Nicklin, a normally secure LNP seat (former independent Peter Wellington notwithstanding) where they are only slightly in front.
7.52pm. Also good early numbers for Labor in Hervey Bay, where few were anticipating they would win. This seat’s demographic skews very old.
7.49pm. The Sunshine Coast: Labor will win Caloundra and, early days though it may be, probably Pumicestone. However, that early scare for the LNP in Buderim has at least faded, although they’re not out of the woods. If Labor keeps its majority, it will have this region to thank. Note that I’m including links where my results pages are working fully.
7.45pm. Regional round-up part two: Townsville. The Townsville electorate is again down to the wire, with the ABC computer having the LNP with its nose in front. Labor apparently has its nose in front in both Thuringowa and Mundingburra. The LNP is presumably sweating on some regional late counting trend to deliver them a swag here.
7.44pm. The ABC computer finally calls South Brisbane for the Greens, and Labor are in big trouble in McConnel as well. So clearly two seats for the Greens, and it will be three unless the pre-poll and postal dynamic is different.
7.43pm. Antony makes the well-made point that a different dynamic on pre-polls and postals could, at this of all elections, completely flip things around.
7.42pm. I’ll start looking at it on a region-by-region basis, starting with Cairns. Labor has retained the Cairns electorate with a slight swing; there is now also a swing in Labor’s favour in Barron River, which they will hold. Mulgrave was never in doubt but there’s no swing. So a pretty good show in Cairns overall, despite the tourism slump, perhaps reflecting a general retiree effect.
7.40pm. It’s very tight in Buderim, a Sunshine Coast seat the LNP wouldn’t have counted on losing. I think the deal with my results page is that it’s working well for vanilla Labor-versus-LNP contests once two-party preferred results appear in the system. There’s a lot of screwiness on the entry page, which I only recommend for the links to the electorate results pages.
7.38pm. Also working is my page for Caloundra, where it looks like Labor are home: the ABC computer has it back to a Labor gain, compensating for a Labor loss in South Brisbane that the ABC computer is still being too conservative about. Other than that though everything looks remarkably status quo at this point, but obviously there are still a lot of seats that are too early or too close to call.
7.35pm. My results page for Currumbin, at least, is working well and it has an LNP win probability of 51%.
7.30pm. As Antony notes, a modest swing to Labor in the south-east and the other way round in the regions. As I speak, he has the first real numbers in from Pumicestone, a very tight LNP marginal on the cusp of Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast where the incumbent is retiring, and they’re very encouraging for Labor.
7.26pm. The ABC has the KAP ahead in Cook, but I’d very much doubt that — it will be based on preference estimates, and it would be hard to see them overcoming Labor’s 42.5% to 17.1% lead on primaries. The LNP are second, but the projection would have the KAP overtaking the LNP with the help of One Nation’s 7.0%.
7.24pm. There isn’t a single seat the ABC computer is recording as changing hands, though I suspect it’s being conservative in South Brisbane. Caloundra has been downgraded from Labor gain to Labor ahead.
7.20pm. The Cairns electorate is resisting the dangerous trend for Labor in north Queensland, perhaps reflecting its large population of retirees.
7.18pm. Conversely, so have the LNP in Bundaberg.
7.17pm. Labor has bounced back in Barron River after an early scare.
7.16pm. It does rather look like the Greens will win South Brisbane. Very early days in McConnel, but the tiny early booth that’s in there is also good for the Greens.
7.15pm. Labor is retaining its Brisbane marginals, though not with huge swings.
7.13pm. Currumbin looks likely to be closely watched throughout the evening, being a potential Gold Coast gain for Labor in which there’s currently nothing in it.
7.12pm. The ABC calling Mirani as One Nation retain, and Labor in Aspley, a loseable seat in inner northern Brisbane.
7.07pm. The ABC computer is calling Caloundra for Labor, which is huge if true. Another sign of the election going according to script, with grey voters causing Labor to go well in a few places that traditionally aren’t strong for them, but a challenge for Labor with the dynamic of One Nation voters in north and central Queensland moving to the LNP.
7.01pm. One Nation’s one incumbent, Stephen Andrew in Mirani, is bucking his party’s trend, maintaining a slight lead over the LNP on the primary vote and doing well enough that he should be returned on their preferences if it stays that way.
6.58pm. Where substantial results are in, things seem to be going according to script. In Mundingburra, One Nation is well done, the LNP have got more of the dividend than Labor, there’s a slight swing to the LNP on two-party, and overall it looks close in this marginal Labor-held Townsville seat. Antony Green is also pointing to a fairly solid but very early swing to the LNP in Barron River. I’m providing links where my results facility seems to be working.
6.54pm. My election results facility is bug city, but it seems to be doing its job in Bundaberg, an LNP-held margin where it’s looking tight, and Maiwar, where Greens incumbent Michael Berkman appears to be enjoying a handsome sophomore surge, which should raise Greens hopes for other inner-city seats.
6.51pm. My election results page has perked up. Bottom line is that it will work in a patchy, buggy sort of a way. The aggregated votes at the top of the page have 3273 votes to work with, and they point to a large transfer of votes from One Nation to the LNP, as anticipated.
6.17pm. The front page of my results facility doesn’t seem to be fully firing, which I think is because the mercurial ECQ feed only has headline numbers in it. But if you follow the seat links on the left-hand side, you will see results in seats where it says “0%” for the amount counted. As always, these are small booths from country seats.
6pm. Polls have closed. I have a very ambitious live results set-up here — let’s see how we go, but experience suggests it will be of more use in the late count than on the night. I’ll start promoting it more thoroughly if it seems to be working more-or-less okay.sto
Greens coming first in Cooper! (22% counted.)
Indies in Maroochydore and Macalister doing nothing special. Richardson probably winning in Oodgeroo (one booth, but she’s in front with 40%), Bolton smashing it in Noosa.
sprocket_,
Which party is Wayne Bartholomew standing for?
The swing pattern, win or lose, does not suggest that the Premier’s tactic of being more of an appeaser to Big Mining than her Federal counterparts has made a serious difference. Joel Fitzgibbon take note.
The theory that Morrison outperformed Turnbull because he stands for what Coalition voters expect rather than trying to out-Labor Labor definitely has legs. It may be counter-intuitive for Labor to do better by owning their beliefs and committing to them instead of apologising for them, but it was counter-intuitive for Morrison too and he won.
Who’s Anthony Green?
Is he related to Antony Green?
The Guardian:
“That rumoured Green wave may be real.”
Pauline is a Liberal at heart, leading a party of wackos, fraudsters and conspiracy theorists. Maybe One Nation voters decided they’d be better voting for the real “Liberals”.
Bad news for the LNP nationally. Despite David Speers commentary. Queensland has moved left.
Great to see One Nation vote collapse.
The Rabbit standing for ALP against a LNP seat with a 4.9% margin
And so ends the last Labor majority government in QLD.
Watching Sky News at the moment (FTA in the regions… I don’t pay for it).
They’re already talking about “own goals”, “last minute surges required”, and checking out “the LNP’s hit list” of Labor-held seats (Labor winning all of them ATM).
Some wally is on about “youth crime” and “public order” being “The BIG Issue” on the hustings today in Townsville. Too late, alas. Even Sky are conceding that Labor is ahead. The LNP guy is hoping for a “last minute surge”.
Alan Jones is now complaining about pre-polling favouring Labor.
The consensus is: “Not looking great for the LNP”, and “the only hope for the LNP” being to force Labor into a minority government.
What an effing hoot.
Scratch that in Oodgeroo – Richardson back into third, still over 20%. Still doable with Green (etc) preferences.
KAP has eaten most of the One Nation vote in Hinchinbrook, so that’s their third safe seat.
On the ABC count:
27 LNP + 19 in doubt = 46 seats. 1 short of the 47
Cooper is looking interesting with Greens running 1st on primaries so far.
Newspoll looks to be shit!
Under 35% of the vote means a rejection of evangelical trollop.
It looks like, with The Greens’ vote being, again, ~10% and only a 0.3% gain for them, it comes down to the fact that their preference deal with the LNP is what will win them seats.
Whitsunday is looking like a LNP/ALP top two – Costigan and One Nation about 10% each. The Legalise Cannabis party are beating the Greens so far. (Note to self: visit the Whitsundays sometime.)
sprocket_ @ #55 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:26 pm
Yay!
ALP has 43 seats so far, Labor needs 47.
David Speers being a right wing twat “Labor under pressure”.
labor will govern in majority or not at all?
If it’s a minority they’ll be there for a coalition.
Is David Speers in front of a green screen? If so, why? Numpty.
Lol. Labor taking over the centre of politics in this nation. Squeezing The Greens to the Far Left and the LNP/Liberals to the Far Right. 😀
Cat
Bad news for you the Greens have won South Brisbane.
As I said. It’s obvious Queensland is moving left.
Celebrate. It’s a huge defeat for Murdoch as Greens gain and One Nation collapses.
Labor will be the government
Lars Von Tryhard:
ABC is awarding 43 seats to Labor already, with 16 more in doubt.
Tell us again about the end of Labor?
The Loopy Numpty Party has been roasted.
I raise me glass to Labor!
Labor Green = 39.2 11.3 = 50.3
LNP Pauline = 33.7 7.8 = 41.5
It looks like about 20% of the vote has been counted. Maybe I’m missing something. That looks like a Labor win.
https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/state2020
Lars Von Trier @ #69 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 7:35 pm
They’ve done minority government twice before and gone on to win big thereafter.
C@t,
That analysis does not seem to be sound. As is usual for the Greens, their swings are very targeted in their winnable seats – currently with a 13.5% swing in Cooper and and a 6% swing in McConnel (leapfrogging the ALP and the LNP in both cases, without which they would not have been able to win the seat), a 5.2% swing in South Brisbane (which, alone, would deliver the Greens a narrow victory in the seat even considering the same preference distribution), and a 14.7% swing in Maiwar, which proves the targetting of the Greens’ campaign.
ALP majority on current trends
Bribie is blacked out so will be a while before any meaningful results here.
So a Lib candidate for Currumbin saying that the older demographic (which tends to vote Lib) have decided it was probably safer to vote ALP. So in other words the Libs decided to desert their base – seems a good strategy .
Closing the borders was the correct strategy – it was a good result in the NT and will probably be the same in Qld. And will be the same in WA next year.
Liberals still have their blinkers on like there is no virus or economy problems.
And Still demanding that borders to be open.
Alan Jones now praising Jackie Trad. Proudfoot arguing with some Labor guy about tree-clearing. LNP seats falling everywhere. Jones reckons people are angry (“But with who?” I ask). Proudfoot says the postals will kill it. Don’t you worry about that.
Interesting that the whole thing is from the POV of the LNP, even the swings to Labor in Labor-held seats are presented as negative numbers (ie. swing away from LNP).
It’s a very lonely little Election Nerve Centre they’re running at Sky.
Zerlo @ #66 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 7:34 pm
Labor + Greens need 47. They’ve gotta be damn close to that.
There aren’t enough “In Doubt” seats left for an LNP minority government.
LNP lady talking on ABC about how their shocking loss of support in SE QLD has nothing whatsoever to do with them being hopelessly wrong about C19/border policies. Muted.
Anyways, 10.9% swing to Labor in my electorate. Currently 50.5 / 49.5 LNP / ALP. My vote might actually do something for once. 🙂
This time Clive Palmer has not got any return on his millions in election spending. Last time he ran dead himself but was a trojan horse for LNP preferences. This time he has got nothing out of it. Cash strapped media businesses will be thankful for his money.
Cat
I see what you mean about Amanda Stoker – she of fake facebook account and “knee on the throat of business” remarks. What a piece of work. Where do these people come from?
The LNP have triumphed in Gladstone, magnificently winning the elusive silver medal for the first time since 1989. Wayne’ll be happy.
Burdekin and Thuringowa look like ALP/LNP seats, same as Whitsunday.
Greens holding the line in Clayfield – pretty good result considering the circumstances. One day they’ll have to give Andrew Bartlett a seat he can win.
The Guardian:
“Like Maiwar, the [LNP] chose a Christian conservative, Citipointe church pastor Janet Wishart, as its candidate [in Mansfield]. … Like Maiwar, the LNP’s primary vote is way down.”
Sing along now:
“Rearward, Christian soldiers …”
Buderim is looking interesting.
Looks like Grace Grace in trouble! Delicious!!!
Alan Jones is now harassing some Greens guy who looks like picking up a seat. Jones wants to actually argue, on air with him! Asks him What lies he told to trick voters into supporting him. Have to say the Greens guy is bearing all this with dignity, despite Jones’ interruptions, mockery, insults, accusations and bluster.
As Antony says, huge prepolls to come. Will they fall the same as on the day?
Any idea when the prepolls will drop?
steve777: “Pauline is a Liberal at heart, leading a party of wackos, fraudsters and conspiracy theorists. Maybe One Nation voters decided they’d be better voting for the real “Liberals”.”
Most far right populists are sympathetic to poor and working class people, and trumpet policies and positions that support those people. Hanson has always been different – always attacking welfare recipients and unemployed, and since entering the senate, she’s pretty much always sided with the libs on their pro-big business policies.
If anything tonight’s results suggest that these voters are going to labor rather than the LNP – which would be consistent with my point.
Edit: wait, now saying labor on 48 minus cooper Which they would lose on those numbers. so majority government on current but only just
43 seats to Labor + 3 ALP ahead – looks like they’ll have to suck it up and join up in Coalition with the Greens.
Briefly’s going to be having heart palpitations!
Great outcome!
LNP
Tough on Grime.
Like Ajax.
Powdery and washes away in water.
“There aren’t enough “In Doubt” seats left for an LNP minority government.”
There never really was going to be a LNP victory. If the election was this time next year they might have had a chance.
Currently it is like Neville Chamberlain returning home with the Munich agreement. War was averted. He was a hero.
Coronavirus has not done anything to Australia yet. Lets wait and see when the money runs out. I can achieve anything when the money is there to throw around willy nilly. The coronavirus war has not started yet, just delayed.
I think you’ll find “LNP doing poorly in the south east corner” translates to “the old Liberals are being decimated and the old Nationals are holding up the party in the rural”.
So when do postals, and prepolls get counted? Is it like up till midnight? or do they break early and start tomorrow?
44 seats now – 3 more required.
Labor & Greens > 50%, even allowing for the drift right in late counting and postals (if it occurs this time) has got to be bad news for the LNP.
(Clive Palmer only on 0.7% – good to see).