10.21pm. Most of the bugs in my election results facility have resolved now (though there’s still a few odd quirks that I’ll hopefully be able to iron out this evening), so if you have any sort of interest in the late counting, I suggest this is the place to follow it. Certainly it’s the best place to observe results at booth level – a lot of effort has been done to condense these into something manageable out of the needless thicket of detail published by the ECQ. And if you do find that of use, you might also care to tip some pennies into my tip jar, which takes the form of the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.
10.06pm. The ABC is now projecting (but not calling) 51 seats for Labor, so it seems there may have been a dynamic where the late-reporting pre-polls leaned in their favour & though they may also done put them under a little more pressure from the Greens in McConnel and Cooper.
10.00pm. Antony Green relating that there has been a turn in Labor’s favour in both Townsville and Thuringowa, where the first especially looked doubtful for them through the night.
9.52pm. My live results facility is a lot less screwy now that I’ve turned booth-matching off (although there are still some clangers: Labor is assuredly not winning Hill and Scenic Rim, nor the LNP McConnel and Rockhampton).
9.44pm. The Greens have narrowed the gap against the LNP in the race for second in McConnel, which would give them a chance of overhauling Labor on their preferences if they bridged it. If this is part of a pre-poll trend, it could give them a shot at a third seat. That’s without factoring in Cooper, which is similarly placed and remains a wild card, though there too the Greens are third on the primary vote, and will presumably not do well on postals.
9.43pm. The ABC computer is now calling for Pumicestone for Labor, which means both the networks have Labor in majority government territory.
9.38pm. The Nine Network’s system is apparently more bullish for Labor than the ABC’s, projecting 50 seats.
9.30pm. Three LNP seats starting with C, Chatsworth, Clayfield and Currumbin, are now being rated as LNP retain by the ABC after earlier being rated in doubt.
9.23pm. Antony Green relates that the ECQ’s feed is lacking two-party preferred data for seats in the second half of the alphabet, so presumably the ABC is going off preference estimates for all those seats.
8.38pm. I note that high-profile Clive Palmer candidate Greg Downling is vying for North Queensland First for last past in a large field in Townsville. Palmer’s part is on 0.6% statewide.
8.35pm. I believe we’ve hit the lull in counting that characteristically sets in when the booths have wrapped up their count (easily done in the current climate) and we’re hanging on for the much larger early voting centres.
8.33pm. Labor would lose its majority with a net loss of two seats. They could lose two seats to the Greens — certainly South Brisbane and quite possibly Cooper (the Greens have fallen to third in McConnel). Conversely, they have gained Caloundra. There are a whole bunch of seats they could win off the LNP, but the only one that looks really strong for them is Pumicestone, where they have a strong lead although the count there is slow. However, they are in at least some danger of losing Redlands, Redcliffe, Thuringowa and Townsville, though my money would be on them in first three. What’s clear is that the LNP won’t have a majority — the question is whether enough of the close seats go against Labor to put them in a precarious minority position. But another small Labor majority is at least as likely.
8.18pm. It’s now lineball in Coomera, an LNP-held seat on the Gold Coast.
8.11pm. Counterbalancing the trouble Labor may be in in Redcliffe, the ABC computer suggests the possibility of a Labor boilover in Clayfield, held by former LNP leader Tim Nicholls. My feeling would be that both incumbents will hang on, but time will tell.
8.07pm. I haven’t mentioned Cooper yet, a potential fourth seat for the Greens. Basically it’s a three-way mash-up on the primary vote, and my guess would be that the Greens will win if it’s the LNP that drops out. My assumption was of a strong flow of LNP preferences to the Greens, given the LNP’s tactic of putting Labor last on how-to-votes, but it seems others aren’t so sure.
8.04pm. Steven Miles on the ABC hearing better information for Labor from Redcliffe, if I heard him correctly.
8.03pm. Chatsworth is close, as it usually is, but both my and Antony’s projections have it as a narrow LNP retain.
8.01pm. Antony notes that Labor may have a problem in the north Brisbane seat of Redcliffe, which would be a quirky result if so (causing me to be cautious).
8.00pm. I forgot about Burleigh in my Gold Coast review, where surfing legend Wayne Bartholemew may bed doing the trick for Labor, at least to the extent that it’s close.
7.57pm. The Sunshine Coast trend to Labor is relatively subdued in Glass House, but this being a very tight LNP-held seat, it’s certainly in play.
7.55pm. Down to the wire in Currumbin, but otherwise the Gold Coast doesn’t seem to bringing home any bacon for Labor. There is a big swing to the LNP swing in Bonney for some reason (partly sophomore surge effect).
7.53pm. My Sunshine Coast review missed Nicklin, a normally secure LNP seat (former independent Peter Wellington notwithstanding) where they are only slightly in front.
7.52pm. Also good early numbers for Labor in Hervey Bay, where few were anticipating they would win. This seat’s demographic skews very old.
7.49pm. The Sunshine Coast: Labor will win Caloundra and, early days though it may be, probably Pumicestone. However, that early scare for the LNP in Buderim has at least faded, although they’re not out of the woods. If Labor keeps its majority, it will have this region to thank. Note that I’m including links where my results pages are working fully.
7.45pm. Regional round-up part two: Townsville. The Townsville electorate is again down to the wire, with the ABC computer having the LNP with its nose in front. Labor apparently has its nose in front in both Thuringowa and Mundingburra. The LNP is presumably sweating on some regional late counting trend to deliver them a swag here.
7.44pm. The ABC computer finally calls South Brisbane for the Greens, and Labor are in big trouble in McConnel as well. So clearly two seats for the Greens, and it will be three unless the pre-poll and postal dynamic is different.
7.43pm. Antony makes the well-made point that a different dynamic on pre-polls and postals could, at this of all elections, completely flip things around.
7.42pm. I’ll start looking at it on a region-by-region basis, starting with Cairns. Labor has retained the Cairns electorate with a slight swing; there is now also a swing in Labor’s favour in Barron River, which they will hold. Mulgrave was never in doubt but there’s no swing. So a pretty good show in Cairns overall, despite the tourism slump, perhaps reflecting a general retiree effect.
7.40pm. It’s very tight in Buderim, a Sunshine Coast seat the LNP wouldn’t have counted on losing. I think the deal with my results page is that it’s working well for vanilla Labor-versus-LNP contests once two-party preferred results appear in the system. There’s a lot of screwiness on the entry page, which I only recommend for the links to the electorate results pages.
7.38pm. Also working is my page for Caloundra, where it looks like Labor are home: the ABC computer has it back to a Labor gain, compensating for a Labor loss in South Brisbane that the ABC computer is still being too conservative about. Other than that though everything looks remarkably status quo at this point, but obviously there are still a lot of seats that are too early or too close to call.
7.35pm. My results page for Currumbin, at least, is working well and it has an LNP win probability of 51%.
7.30pm. As Antony notes, a modest swing to Labor in the south-east and the other way round in the regions. As I speak, he has the first real numbers in from Pumicestone, a very tight LNP marginal on the cusp of Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast where the incumbent is retiring, and they’re very encouraging for Labor.
7.26pm. The ABC has the KAP ahead in Cook, but I’d very much doubt that — it will be based on preference estimates, and it would be hard to see them overcoming Labor’s 42.5% to 17.1% lead on primaries. The LNP are second, but the projection would have the KAP overtaking the LNP with the help of One Nation’s 7.0%.
7.24pm. There isn’t a single seat the ABC computer is recording as changing hands, though I suspect it’s being conservative in South Brisbane. Caloundra has been downgraded from Labor gain to Labor ahead.
7.20pm. The Cairns electorate is resisting the dangerous trend for Labor in north Queensland, perhaps reflecting its large population of retirees.
7.18pm. Conversely, so have the LNP in Bundaberg.
7.17pm. Labor has bounced back in Barron River after an early scare.
7.16pm. It does rather look like the Greens will win South Brisbane. Very early days in McConnel, but the tiny early booth that’s in there is also good for the Greens.
7.15pm. Labor is retaining its Brisbane marginals, though not with huge swings.
7.13pm. Currumbin looks likely to be closely watched throughout the evening, being a potential Gold Coast gain for Labor in which there’s currently nothing in it.
7.12pm. The ABC calling Mirani as One Nation retain, and Labor in Aspley, a loseable seat in inner northern Brisbane.
7.07pm. The ABC computer is calling Caloundra for Labor, which is huge if true. Another sign of the election going according to script, with grey voters causing Labor to go well in a few places that traditionally aren’t strong for them, but a challenge for Labor with the dynamic of One Nation voters in north and central Queensland moving to the LNP.
7.01pm. One Nation’s one incumbent, Stephen Andrew in Mirani, is bucking his party’s trend, maintaining a slight lead over the LNP on the primary vote and doing well enough that he should be returned on their preferences if it stays that way.
6.58pm. Where substantial results are in, things seem to be going according to script. In Mundingburra, One Nation is well done, the LNP have got more of the dividend than Labor, there’s a slight swing to the LNP on two-party, and overall it looks close in this marginal Labor-held Townsville seat. Antony Green is also pointing to a fairly solid but very early swing to the LNP in Barron River. I’m providing links where my results facility seems to be working.
6.54pm. My election results facility is bug city, but it seems to be doing its job in Bundaberg, an LNP-held margin where it’s looking tight, and Maiwar, where Greens incumbent Michael Berkman appears to be enjoying a handsome sophomore surge, which should raise Greens hopes for other inner-city seats.
6.51pm. My election results page has perked up. Bottom line is that it will work in a patchy, buggy sort of a way. The aggregated votes at the top of the page have 3273 votes to work with, and they point to a large transfer of votes from One Nation to the LNP, as anticipated.
6.17pm. The front page of my results facility doesn’t seem to be fully firing, which I think is because the mercurial ECQ feed only has headline numbers in it. But if you follow the seat links on the left-hand side, you will see results in seats where it says “0%” for the amount counted. As always, these are small booths from country seats.
6pm. Polls have closed. I have a very ambitious live results set-up here — let’s see how we go, but experience suggests it will be of more use in the late count than on the night. I’ll start promoting it more thoroughly if it seems to be working more-or-less okay.sto
Clem Atlee might not like the delivery but Annastacia is honest and real and respected by Qlders. When she was in charge of 7 members most Labor people despaired. However, She did the work of ten people and had the LNP on the run when they should have been ascendant. As a public servant who experienced near death under the LNP we put our faith in the ALP and they delivered, thanks Annastacia.
“I see the polls underestimated the ALP vote by about 3 percent…I wonder if the nervous pollsters corrected too far the other way after the last Federal election?”
I’ve been wondering that myself. The ON-UAP preference funnel to the LNP may have been an aberration. If so, federal Labor may well be a lot closer to SfM than the ‘Father of the Nation’ tyre pumpers imagine. Albo will need to fire up appreciably early next year and we’ll will see if he’s just been cleverly biding his time, or if he really has lost the fire in the belly. The budget reply was a good start, but … on the other hand, I’m starting to really warm to the idea of Jim Chalmers as a late replacement, if it comes to that: he speaks good Queenslander. Which should help with regional and outer suburban rim seats nation wide.
Asha Leu @ #438 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 8:39 pm
He’ll already have the rationale laid out in his mind of how it was worth every cent.
torchbearer @ #450 Saturday, October 31st, 2020 – 11:48 pm
Whatever…
Pollsters are all fucked and far from home..
They have long lost any credibility
Lets see what next week brings
Asha Leu
The result says it all.
Don’t know where the objectors can back this one up.
No doubt Bargearse will find a way to claim it as a tax deduction.
AngoraFish: it was alright for the first coupla hours, until the Labor partisan hate machine descended like a black cloud.
You want pseph? How about someone winning from third?
Oodgeroo: good news for Claire Richardson. The gap between her and Labor has gone down to 4.7%, with 9.1% for others. So she needs a bit over 50% of preferences from Greens / One Nation / anti-vaxxers to get ahead of Labor, and therefore (probably) win the seat.
I’m of the same opinion. Chalmers ticks pretty much all the boxes.
Albo’s been pretty useless since taking over, I’m sad to say. I get that these are pretty difficult times to be an opposition leader, but he seems paralyzed. Say what you want about Shorten, but the man never shied away from taking the fight straight to the Coalition, even during the the height of Turnbull’s honeymoon.
I reckon it’s increasingly likely we’ll see Morrison finding an excuse for an early election, too. It pays to be an incumbent right about now.
Windhoversays:
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 11:01 pm
Hopefully Deb F will thank her God for telling her to go away and find something else to do.
Deb Frecklington is a member of the Kingaroy Anglican Church (as am I) and has not attended a worship service since Easter 2015 (with her parents). She also failed to respond to the Priest’s attempt to contact her at the beginning of the year before CoVid.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/10/31/queensland-election-live-5/comment-page-9/#comment-3503911
I agree that O`Brien is an inferior leader, including compared to Frecklington, although I am not sure the Liberals in Victoria have anyone better in the current Parliament. With a Legislative Council that is the third or second most government friendly a Victorian ALP government has ever had, an early election is not a real possibility. Since a new election would probably bring John Pesutto, quite possibly the Liberal`s best potential leader and possible next Premier (either after the 2026 or 2030 election), it would probably be a bad thing for the ALP.
Ben Raue from The Guardian is so negative and cautious in his posts.
Trying to follow him and to me my impression seems that he is willing a LNP victory, or at the very least, trying to play down Labors excellent win.
Where did Amy with her more objective views go?
Hope she is alright.
Asha,
On a fed early election. SfM may go early, but he doesn’t have much success to run on. He gave over all control to the premiers and they have delivered. He’s got a recession to avoid. That’s his problem between now and august next year.
Chalmers does come across better than Albanese. Being from Queensland is a help too.
On a sad note; Sean Connery has died.
Cook might be back on. Labor is down to 42.2%, LNP 23.9%, KAP 17.4% (6.5% behind LNP), with 16.6% for others. They need about 40% of those preferences to make it an ALP/KAP top two.
ABC prediction is ALP winning by 3.6% vs KAP, but that could go in any direction. The numbers in this seat have been flapping around like a kite in a thunderstorm all night.
She also failed to respond to the Priest’s attempt to contact her at the beginning of the year before CoVid.
Off-topic, but was this a public appeal of some sort? If it wasn’t, this and the other detail seems an egregious breach of her privacy (and I’m no fan of DF).
Psephologically I think there are two interesting points to come out of this result. Firstly the latest polls (Labor 51.5 2pp) were pretty accurate. Certainly within MOE, so Covid is not hindering the ability of pollsters to get it right.
Second, when the pre-poll vote is this large (>50%) the traditional LNP advantage in pre-poll votes disappears. The Labor lead got bigger as the night went on and more pre-polls got counted. As 538 has suggested for the US elections with large (record) pre-poll voting, the overall survey poll result is still the best guide.
Night all. Happy halloween Scomo.
Minor points of trivia (assuming no late-count surprises):
* Must be one of the lowest rates of seat transfer in a long time (although the last federal election was also pretty stable). Assuming Marty Hunt holds Nicklin and all other leads hold, 85 out of 93 MPs will have been re-elected and there will be only eight new MPs. Only two members, Jackie Trad and Jason Costigan, have definitely been defeated.
* If the LNP does indeed lose Hervey Bay, they will have lost all three of the seats where their sitting members retired, and only those seats (again assuming they hold Nicklin). They will, however, have retained/regained Whitsunday.
* The proportion of women in the Assembly will stay the same at 29 out of 93, or 31% (all of the doubtful seats have competing candidates of the same gender). In only two seats will the gender of the member change: Mundingburra (female to male) and Whitsunday (male to female). The LNP will continue to have only six female members (Amanda Camm replacing Simone Wilson).
* Stephen Andrew becomes only the second person ever to win re-election as a One Nation member, after Rosa Lee Long (who did it twice). Like Lee Long, Andrew has done this in the face of a collapsing party vote statewide. Colin Tincknell and Robin Scott will attempt to double the numbers of this exclusive club at next year’s WA state election.
* The Greens’ retention record survives another election: they have never lost a single-member seat they first won at a general election (and have never retained one they first won at a by-election). It will be fascinating to see how long this record survives.
AngoraFish
I am so glad you asked, because I am now, after watching the results of the QLD state election, going to post my thoughts.
While I have political opinions, my major interest in the QLD election results was whether the following big money interventions would sway the election results towards the LNP:
1) Clive Palmer’s big spend on Facebook insisting that the ALP was going to introduce a 20% death tax (totally fake news, but effective in the 2019 Federal election).
2) The SMS sent by the Courier Mail and other undisclosed parties to voters today suggesting that you would save $300 on your rego if you voted LNP, with a convenient link the the LNP how to vote ticket for your electorate.
3) The relentless campaign run against the QLD government by the Mudoch press (Courier Mail).
So, these interventions did not lead to the election of an LNP government.
This is very important for understanding whether democracies can withstand a large assault backed by serious money.
In the case of QLD they did, and it gives me hope.
My biggest question: How accurate were the polls?
I think accurate opinion polls are extremely important for a functioning democracy: If you want to represent the will of the people, you really do need to know that they are thinking.
Unless you think the the people are so stupid you need the dictatorship of the proletariat.
I like FDR’s comment about needing to bring people along with you when selling change (or WTTE):
“It is very disconcerting when you are trying to lead, to look over your shoulder and find no one is following you”.
Ronzy
“Deb Frecklington is a member of the Kingaroy Anglican Church (as am I) and has not attended a worship service since Easter 2015 (with her parents). She also failed to respond to the Priest’s attempt to contact her at the beginning of the year before CoVid”
So you volunteer that now?
I sincerely hope you spread it around the parish before the election.
No?
Say no more ie jump on the band wagon?
Frickeg:
I presume this is just counting single-member electorates.
torchbearer
Thanks for that info.
I think this election is highly useful fo calibrating the polls, which I have said above, ae vey important for a functioning democracy.
caf: You beat me to the edit button!
Not defending Deb F but it would be a surprise if a rural MP would choose to ignore a church group because they are important parts of the local community.
Didn’t the Greens lose their Northern NSW state seat they won at one general election?
Something else I didn’t notice before: the Greens came first in both Maiwar and South Brisbane. For those who like to complain about the LNP sending prefs their way in SB: if they’d’ve gone 50-50, the Greens would still have won.
Also, Michael Johnson (former federal MP for Ryan) ran in Maiwar, didn’t seem to do any kind of promo, and got less than 1%. The point of that was…?
Frickeg
Good job application, but no, way too congested.
Secret, keep it simple!
Mexicanbeemer: nope, they still have Ballina (won from Nats 2015, retained 2019). They thought they could take Lismore off the Nats as well in 2019, but Labor swiped it instead.
Out of nowhere, Bundaberg has popped up as an ALP gain. Plus a strong chance in 3 other seats, so the 51 seat forecast is starting to firm up, with some chance of 52.
Mexicanbeemer:
No, they first won Ballina in 2015 and won it with an increased majority in 2019. You might be thinking of Lismore, which it looked like they’d won on election night 2015 but then were chased down on postals, and where they fell out of the 2PP in 2019 (though only narrowly).
Thanks Bird of Paradox
Frickeg
Thanks and yes i was thinking of Lismore.
MOFOS,
WHY IS QLD LABOR A MACHINE AT THE STATE LEVEL AND F’ING USELESS AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL?
ASKING FOR A FRIEND NAMED BILL SHORTEN
Re Cooper: how many times has a party cracked 30% somewhere and missed the top two? It can’t be that often… it’s mathematically certain to make the top two if you get 33.3%. One Nation in Burdekin 2017 comes close (29.3%).
Seems to me that the polls were pretty on the money.
Polling uncertainty has always been a combination of undecideds and where they will break, a small amount of demographic under sampling, and more than a touch of wishful thinking (Brexit, Trump). Pretty much all the so-called failures of polling have in fact been simple failures of interpretation.
In this case we have plenty of evidence now to say that the trend with COVID elections favours strong incumbents. People are scared and are willing to reward leaders willing to take drastic action to protect them, no matter how extreme.
Traditional assumptions such as that the undecided vote will split more or less consistently with the overall polled voting intention were always questionable rules of thumb to start with.
But regardless, at the end of the day, polls still outrank in credibility the views of a thousand alleged insiders and partisans, commentators, academics, betting markets, and pollbludger contributors.
I’m not seeing anything of significant note here. A slightly higher percentage of undecideds broke towards the incumbent than might be the case in an election occurring in more normal times, which should come as no great surprise to absolutely anybody bar the most one eyed partisans.
Bird of paradox: What a great question! It requires a perfect storm of three candidates very close together and very few other candidates. I’m thinking potentially some three-cornered contests back in the day possibly; it’d take a ton of work to check but definitely possible Cooper ends up being a record.
Whatever got counted in Bundaberg must’ve been good for Labor and bad for the 420 party – they went from 9% down to 5.5%, just 0.1% behind One Nation.
From Kevin Bonham:
“In case the ABC switches off the projection, note that Labor are currently ahead in the Bundaberg live count but projected to finish way behind.”
Something must’ve flipped, because the projection’s actually better than the live count now (1.1% vs 0.6%).
Re: Bundaberg, the ABC computer projections must’ve been turned off. Kevin Bonham mentions on his blog that Labor has been ahead in the live count for a while but projects behind (they must do particularly badly on postals there).
EDIT: Scratch that, see above.
Bird of paradox @ #471 Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 12:35 am
Labor put up an outstanding candidate is why Lismore went to Labor. Janelle Saffin, former federal member in the same area and more Left than many Greens these days.
500 comments after the fact, hilarious to think how silent all the armchair experts were before the fact LOL
Current results:
Party. %
ALP. 40.62
LNP. 35.59
QG. 9.2
PHON. 6.92
IND. 2.54
KAP. 2.32
Based on the results to date, the Electoral Commission Queensland website indicates the Greens have actually had a swing of 0.7% against them on First Preferences (10% to 9.3%) on a state wide basis.
Why can’t Queenslanders vote correctly at the federal level?
ALWAYS vote Labor in state elections and
ALWAYS vote Murdoch at federal elections!
Why???
On purpose, to annoy you.
State Labor keeps winnng because it is more conservative than federal Labor. Plus the State LNP is useless.
Anyway, somewhere among the millions of predictions I made was one which said the ALP would hold all its seats except South Brisbane, and win a few in SEQ.
And I am likely to win a sizeable bet with my final stance of ALP 49 seats or more, so all is well.
Next prediction, Palaszczuk to retire in about 18 months for some kind of overseas position. Dick to replace her, although not without some angst along the way from the Left faction.
On that note, adieu to PB until the WA election.
Well i’m slightly pissed off. I had money on a hung parliament.
But glad the razor gang have been kept out of power for 4 years.
Epic Murdoch and Palmer fail for whatever reasons (Courier Mail: “Vote LNP”. Qld: “Nope.”) I think the $300 bribe worked in some pockets of the electorate, but the early voting phenomenon may have averted the worst effects of the last-minute smearing on low-information voters.
Unfortunately I think the FUD promulgators and their algorithms will learn from this, and the next campaign will get a lot dirtier a lot earlier, but for now it feels like we’ve dodged that bullet.
If the LNP now demerges …
… Queensland’s Opposition will be led by Tim and Debbie …
… reviving a classic comedy duo.
Manosand: GOLD.
I mean, amazing, cosmic, excellent, right?
Morrison as Turnbull did , tried to make the QLD election all about him , and it bit Morrison harder than it did to Turnbull