Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A middlingly good reaction to the budget according to Newspoll, which does not record significant changes on voting intention or leadership approval from three weeks ago.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 65% approval and 31% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 39% approval and up three on disapproval to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.

The poll shows a broadly favourable response to the budget, which is rated good for the economy by 42% and bad by 20%, compared with 44% and 18% last year – although a lot more of the favourable response is merely quite good (35% compared with 29% last year) rather than extremely good (7% compared with 15%). Twenty-six per cent expect it will make them better off financially compared with 23% for worse off and 51% for uncommitted, which is less strong than last year (34% better off and 19% worse off) but fairly strong by historical standards.

Troublingly for Labor, 54% expressed more trust in “a Coalition government led by Scott Morrison” to “guide Australia’s recovery” compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”, and only 33% felt Labor would have done a better job on the budget compared with 49% for a worse job. This compares with 37% and 45% last year and is their weakest net result since the Coalition came to power in 2013, although it’s within the error margin of 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Looks like Gladys Berejiklian is competing with Morrison who is the biggest liar

    Gladys Berejiklian
    “Had I known any wrongdoing was done at any stage I would have not have hesitated to act and I have acted very swiftly when I needed to.”

    —————————————
    Gladys Berejiklian knew in the 2018 ICAC hearing of Maguire’s wrong doing and still stayed in a relationship with him

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-21/daryl-maguire-to-resign-from-nsw-parliament/10021184

    “Suffice to sat I made my views known last Friday at how deeply disappointed I was at the events which transpired at ICAC,” she said.,

  2. It’s Interesting that both Mr Albanese and Mr Shorten are sympathetic to Ms Berejiklian, whereas Mr Morrison was happy to hang her out to dry.

    Is this just the difference in character? Or is Mr Morrison in on it? And why was “The Australian” the first to commence a pile on?

  3. Socrates @ #981 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 11:32 am

    Whilst people are correct to say the US POTUS election result is still uncertain and therefore Trump could still win, a rational person would not care to bet on Trump at present. The polls can be wrong, but Biden’s lead is 2-3 times the MOE, suggesting they would have to be historically wrong fro Trump to win at this point. It is like saying Scomo’s next budget could be a genuine attempt to address inequality and fairness in workers’ wages in Australian society. Possible but you would not bet on it.

    And Trump’s polls are continuing to get worse. The margin is blowing out, not narrowing. His odds went down from 14% to 13% today. Biden now is up to a 31% chance of winning Texas! That hasn’t happened in most people’s lifetimes. 538 is running discussions on how to deal with probabilities in these extreme cases.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-the-model-is-responding-to-bidens-double-digit-lead-in-the-polls/

    It is an interesting podcast. How does 14% (now 13%) play out? Nate mentions thing have to go very good for Trump from now (good news on Covid, Biden gaffes etc) + some polling error + electoral advantage; but clearly doubts that is going to happen for good reasons. Perry mentions Barr and Pompeo involving themselves and a reversion from Bidens current polling high. Perry and Clare mentions Biden shirking the court packing issue may hurt him a little. I havent finished it yet (it is a two coffee podcast) so I am assuming they will say Trump tries to wring out (turnout) more voters from his base.

    For me, the major takeout from it is how splendid Clare looks in her old school floral blouse compared to Galens faded old school denim shirt. And Perrys take down of Rich Lowry’s piece in Politico.

    Clare nails it for me tho’ when she says there is a fundamental difference between now and 2016; Trump has been in power for 4 years – everyone outside the cult can clearly see he is a dangerous, self absorbed, incompetent nutter (my words, not hers).

  4. Anyon care to translate “coinkydink”? 😆

    Matthew Doran
    @MattDoran91
    ·
    1m
    Coronavirus restrictions in NSW being eased the day after the Premier is put through the ICAC wringer.

    What a coinkydink.

  5. This was a very silly thing for Albanese to comment on

    the federal Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, refused to call for Berejiklian’s resignation, saying the premier “shouldn’t be judged for the fact that she has a relationship with someone”.
    when
    Albanese deflected questions about whether Berejiklian should stand down, saying he hadn’t “looked at all of the details”.

    Albanese advisors ex newsltd hacks , are not for Labor

    Competent advisors would had told Albanese explain you haven’t read all details and wont comment

  6. In case not already posted.
    https://disclosures.ecq.qld.gov.au/Map

    Notable:
    * The most recent donations are dated yesterday.
    * The site allows you to filter by receiving party. (The LNP are at $22M, ALP at $12M UAP at $2M, etc.)
    * You can display donations as a table or on an electoral map. (lots of donations in the NQ)
    * It is difficult to reconcile the information with the LNP complaint that they are at a disadvantage wrt to donations.
    * Donations to UAP come from a handful of organisation, donating again and again and again.

  7. Shellbell
    says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 12:57 pm
    EGT
    “And why was “The Australian” the first to commence a pile on?”
    She is a commie, rabid leftie within the NSW libs

    To give the pretence of being equally hard on both sides.
    Nothing is likely to save Gladys long term, so may as well do our liberal attack when it is not changing an outcome

  8. ScuMo laying it on thick now..Gladys is the greatest!!!!
    .’Gladys keeps on keeping on’
    You mean like Dan, Scumo?
    .
    .
    The greatest I tells ya!^^%%#@#$@!!!!!

  9. I really really hope now that McGuire unloads on Berejikilian in his ICAC evidence

    Morrison has declared his “absolute support”

  10. Although Labor will move a no confidence motion against Gladys, this is just the theatre of parliament. Her fate will be determined by whether the Liberal moderates or hard right prevail and of course what Murdoch decides.

  11. Albanese has been shown once again not to be supporting the Labor state party leaders .

    this is the problem Labor is going to have

  12. Lizzie:

    coinkydink, then, obviously a very useful word for pollies to use when caught out.

    But what then is “coinkydinky-di”?

  13. lizzie @ #988 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 11:25 am

    Is it true that Victoria has “the longest lockdown in the world”? It’s not a classic lockdown when we can go shopping, go to parks, some can go to work, etc etc.

    I vaguely remember an ABC fact check on this a week ago, or so, when Abbott said something like that. They concluded (that is if I remember right) that Abbott was very wrong.

  14. Were there any questions to Gladys asking her why was it ok for her to mislead the inquiry, in denying she knew what the leeton UWE was, when the phone calls told a different story , Gladys knew very well what the leeton UWE was

  15. Yep.

    Peter Fox
    @Peter_Fox59
    ·
    11m
    @samanthamaiden
    ‘s brilliant analysis of
    @GladysB
    ICAC appearance.

    The idea that the NSW Premier didn’t know at least some of what this bloke (Daryl Mcguire) was up to is infantilising.
    Quote Tweet

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    · 37m
    Why @GladysB ‘bad boyfriend’ survival strategy, which rests on casting a 50-year-old woman as a lovesick teenager in an episode of DeGrassi Junior High, should be sickening to feminists https://news.com.au/finance/work/l

  16. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 1:06 pm

    Morrison has declared his “absolute support”

    ————————

    Is Morrison’s absolute support different in giving his full support ?

    if not , Gladys is gone

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-22/scott-morrison-says-turnbull-has-his-full-support/10152052?nw=0
    Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison says speculation he might put his hand up for the Liberal leadership is just ‘the usual nonsense’.

  17. Late Riser @ #1033 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 1:15 pm

    lizzie @ #988 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 11:25 am

    Is it true that Victoria has “the longest lockdown in the world”? It’s not a classic lockdown when we can go shopping, go to parks, some can go to work, etc etc.

    I vaguely remember an ABC fact check on this a week ago, or so, when Abbott said something like that. They concluded (that is if I remember right) that Abbott was very wrong.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-01/fact-check-was-victorias-lockdown-most-severe-oustide-wuhan/12690432

  18. Morrison: 
    “I would like to thank [NSW treasurer] Dom Perottet and [health minister] Brad Hazzard and the whole the whole team down there in the New South Wales government getting in behind her, and certainly they were the messages sent yesterday.” 

    He forgot to mention Maguire, who was obviously “getting in behind her” a great deal. 

  19. Update on Qld.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/qld-deb-frecklington-defends-integrity-ecq-watchdog-referral/12759058

    Queensland Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington insists revelations of ECQ referral are ‘absolutely not correct’

    There appear to be nuances.

    …party sources told the ABC a key concern was one developer’s account that another prohibited donor allegedly instructed him to funnel donations to the LNP via an industry body.

    …an LNP spokesman said the allegation the party has referred Ms Frecklington to the ECQ was false. “The LNP regularly communicates with the ECQ to ensure that we comply with the act”

    So it wasn’t Frecklington herself that was referred, rather the events that she hosted that were referred. It feels like I’m missing something. And when did Frecklington first know her events had been referred by someone in her own party? What has she done about it? And of course, what was Dutton’s involvement?

  20. Victoria @ #1035 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 1:17 pm

    Yep.

    Peter Fox
    @Peter_Fox59
    ·
    11m
    @samanthamaiden
    ‘s brilliant analysis of
    @GladysB
    ICAC appearance.

    The idea that the NSW Premier didn’t know at least some of what this bloke (Daryl Mcguire) was up to is infantilising.
    Quote Tweet

    Samantha Maiden
    @samanthamaiden
    · 37m
    Why @GladysB ‘bad boyfriend’ survival strategy, which rests on casting a 50-year-old woman as a lovesick teenager in an episode of DeGrassi Junior High, should be sickening to feminists https://news.com.au/finance/work/l

    I said this yesterday. How does an intelligent, politically savvy woman get to become Premier of NSW but still think she can play the ‘Dumb Broad’ card? It’s implausible.

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