Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

A middlingly good reaction to the budget according to Newspoll, which does not record significant changes on voting intention or leadership approval from three weeks ago.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition leading 52-48, out from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up one), Labor 34% (steady), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are unchanged at 65% approval and 31% disapproval, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 39% approval and up three on disapproval to 43%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister nonetheless narrows slightly, from 59-27 to 57-28.

The poll shows a broadly favourable response to the budget, which is rated good for the economy by 42% and bad by 20%, compared with 44% and 18% last year – although a lot more of the favourable response is merely quite good (35% compared with 29% last year) rather than extremely good (7% compared with 15%). Twenty-six per cent expect it will make them better off financially compared with 23% for worse off and 51% for uncommitted, which is less strong than last year (34% better off and 19% worse off) but fairly strong by historical standards.

Troublingly for Labor, 54% expressed more trust in “a Coalition government led by Scott Morrison” to “guide Australia’s recovery” compared with 32% for “a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese”, and only 33% felt Labor would have done a better job on the budget compared with 49% for a worse job. This compares with 37% and 45% last year and is their weakest net result since the Coalition came to power in 2013, although it’s within the error margin of 2015, 2016 and 2017.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1527.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. phylactella @ #933 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 10:33 am

    KayJay
    “Emily Kenway found out the hard way that caring for dying relatives is almost impossible in our society.”
    If you look closely – it is £67.25, so is in UK – but Australia is no better.

    I noticed that in looking at other references. Thanks for the info.

    The latest Australian munificence is $131.90 per fortnight – so even less the the UK benefit. Hurrah for us.

    Elevenses is just about upon us. ☕

  2. Whether or not Trump gets another term, I don’t think there is any question at all that he will once again lose the popular vote – almost certainly by a larger margin than 2016.

    And if that happens – if Trump somehow steals some sort of a technical win while getting smashed in the popular vote – I believe the country will erupt in protests and anarchy the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades. It may even be full blown revolution.

  3. Big A Adrian @ #945 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 7:42 am

    Barney: “Why the focus on being held to account.

    Surely it should be about correcting systems to minimise the chances of it happening again.”

    You wouldn’t seriously asking that question if one of your loved ones had been one of the victims of the quarantine stuff-up.

    Imagine your dear old Granny contracts Covid because infected overseas arrivals had been allowed to spread the virus because someone screwed up their quarantine.

    “why the focus on being held to account” – you calmly ask.

    Yeah right!

    Yes, I would.

    The nature of the virus always presents a risk of infection and all we can do, and have been doing, is trying to minimise these risks.

    That’s the important lesson from the outbreak; What can we do to minimise the chances of it happening again?

  5. I like how the media is still trying to claim Barry O’Farrell resign because of a bottle of grange , that is not true

    O’farrell resigned for misleading the inquiry in evidence

  6. Here is yet another example of stupidity:
    – https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-13/us-election-markets-predict-trump-loss/12758610
    viz:

    You may also notice the Mexican peso is number one on the chart as the biggest gainer so far this month.

    The Mexican peso has surged in recent weeks.

    In the lead up to the 2016 election it fell to all-time lows against the US dollar.

    Traders in the peso were worried about Trump ending the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

    Along with the promised border wall, a Trump presidency was seen as a big negative for Mexico and so the currency plummeted.

    Unlike most of the pollsters, it correctly predicted a Trump victory

    The last statement is bullshit – the real situation is that the the price of Peso reflected the risk of a Trump win (30%) and the risk adjusted cost.

    The polls had exactly the same probability of Trump win (30%) as the rate implicit in the Peso fall.

  8. sprocket_ @ #952 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 10:57 am

    It appears mundo is easily swayed by a Lyin’ narcissistic Dotard….

    For pity’s sake. I’m looking at it all objectively. Dotard got himself elected once.
    On the eve of the 2016 election the last comment I made to a friend who said so ‘do you reckon Trump’s can win?’ ….’not a chance’ I said.
    But, it’s not about me, Sprocket.

  9. Barney: “That’s the important lesson from the outbreak; What can we do to minimise the chances of it happening again?”

    Let me guess, telling the people who were incompetent and negligent “hey, its ok you were incompetent and negligent, and that it killed hundreds of people – go kill some more people with your incompetence and negligence!!”

    Earth to Barney: holding people to account is about the very first thing you do to “minimise the chances” of such tragedies happening again.

  10. Big A Adrian @ #957 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 8:08 am

    Barney: “That’s the important lesson from the outbreak; What can we do to minimise the chances of it happening again?”

    Let me guess, telling the people who were incompetent and negligent “hey, its ok you were incompetent and negligent, and that it killed hundreds of people – go kill some more people with your incompetence and negligence!!”

    Earth to Barney: holding people to account is about the very first thing you do to “minimise the chances” of such tragedies happening again.

    And how long did they have to do this?

    Two days!

    In normal circumstances you may have a point.

  12. 2016; Trump is a lying delusional cretin and will never be elected.
    2020; Trump is a lying delusional cretin and will never be re-elected.

    That’s all I’m sayin’

  13. Big A Adrian @ #950 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 10:54 am

    And if that happens – if Trump somehow steals some sort of a technical win while getting smashed in the popular vote – I believe the country will erupt in protests and anarchy the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades. It may even be full blown revolution.

    This is probably what he is counting on as a last resort. He knows which side owns most of the guns 🙁

  14. A bonus of all this Gladys business is the way all the news sites are falling over each other to publish the most unflattering possible photos of her… “just another poor, plain gel, swept off her feet by a handsome rogue. A good woman meets a bad boy.”

    When you’re Premier of NSW you don’t have the luxury of being “a private person”.

  15. mundo says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 11:14 am

    2016 didn’t have massive unemployment, recesssion and mass murderer of 215K.
    Also 2016 sounded sensible back then.
    2019 is comlete opposite of 2016.

  16. Real Clear Politics average of the polls: Biden leads by 10.2

    Battleground states: Biden leads by 4.8 points.

    21 days to go.

  19. Player One @ #960 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 10:20 am

    This is probably what he is counting on as a last resort. He knows which side owns most of the guns 🙁

    Nothing so dramatic as that. What he’s counting on as a last resort is that he’s stacked a bunch of courts with sympathetic judges. Including the Supreme one. He just needs the slightest excuse to launch a legal challenge, and he will.

    Zerlo @ #962 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 10:23 am

    Also 2016 sounded sensible back then.

    That part never happened. Trump’s nonsense sounded just as ridiculous in 2016 as it does now.

  21. ‘His cheap politics is no vaccine against this virus’ Dan says of the opposition leader.
    Good line.
    He’s good.
    Just picked up one the journos on a word she used then didn’t use….he doesn’t miss anything.
    Dan’s presser now decending into the stupid….halloween rules for fukk sake…Dan having a bit of a laugh….he’s exhausted all their questions AGAIN….see you tomorrow he says.
    Amazing.

  22. See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Luke Henriques-Gomes
    @lukehgomes
    ·
    3m
    New DSS data: 1,399,858 jobseeker recipients on 25 September; 1,175,693 had no earnings in that fortnight. #auspol
    Luke Henriques-Gomes
    @lukehgomes
    Replying to
    @lukehgomes
    Youth allowance (other) recipients were 166,411, 130,400 had no earnings #auspol

  25. Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a significant lead in the pivotal states of Michigan and Wisconsin, with President Trump so far failing to retain the overwhelming advantage he enjoyed among white voters there in 2016, according to surveys from The New York Times and Siena College on Monday.

    Over all, Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by eight percentage points in Michigan, 48 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. His lead in Wisconsin was slightly larger, 51 percent to 41 percent.

    The new results, along with recent Times/Siena surveys from elsewhere in the Northern battlegrounds, suggest that the president has not yet managed to reassemble his winning coalition across the region. He faces modest but significant defections among white and independent voters, while facing a groundswell of opposition from those who voted for a minor-party candidate or didn’t vote at all in 2016.

    The president’s path to re-election is narrow if he doesn’t win either Wisconsin or Michigan. If Mr. Biden puts those two states in his column, along with the states carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, he will hold 258 electoral votes, putting him on the doorstep of the 270 needed to win.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/upshot/polls-wisconsin-michigan-election.html

  26. mundo says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 11:47 am
    Gladys up at 12:30
    $5 going begging…….

    ———–

    Nsw is no longer the Gold standard

  27. Where’s the ICAC? Birmingham says keeping people safe is more important. Oh, and the budget.

    It’s the State Premiers who are doing the heavy lifting in”keeping people safe”. Correct me if I’ve got the wrong idea, but I thought that Ministers could each work on their own portfolio. Has the attorney-general got too many responsibilities? I suspect so. Some of the others should get off their lazy bums and contribute.

    Damning audits into a grossly inflated Western Sydney Airport land purchase and the sports rorts affair have fuelled calls to speed up the process.

    But Senator Birmingham said the government had been too busy dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

    “Our top priority has been keeping people safe and getting them back into their jobs,” he told ABC radio on Tuesday.

    “Now of course, the attorney-general works on these other matters, and I’m sure continues to do so.

    “But I think Australians rightly expect our priorities this year have been about saving their lives and saving their jobs, and that’s where we continue in the economic recovery plan we outlined last week.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2020/10/13/australia-federal-corruption-body/

  29. Yes, heard Turnbull’s interview – it was all ‘women are a slave to their passions, they can’t help themselves, bless them’ stuff.

    If I was Lucy, I’d have kicked him in the goolies when he got home.

    No man, of course, was swayed by a beautiful woman, ever (although to be fair, Gladys obviously wasn’t swayed by looks…)

  31. Australian Medical Association Victoria president Julian Rait said the federal government had continually ignored the science and the concerns of healthcare workers.

    “Their advice flies in the face of clear evidence to the contrary,” he said.

    Andrew Hewat, assistant secretary of the Victorian Allied Health Professionals Association, said his members had “put their faith in a system that is not adequately protecting them”.

    “Even if you don’t agree with the science … Why would you not at the very least apply the precautionary principle in case it does exist?” he said.

    The federal Health Department said in a statement that there was “little clinical or epidemiological evidence of regular airborne transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/experts-accuse-federal-government-of-ignoring-science-on-airborne-covid-spread-20201012-p564ce.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1602506519

  32. zoomster @ #977 Tuesday, October 13th, 2020 – 11:50 am

    Yes, heard Turnbull’s interview – it was all ‘women are a slave to their passions, they can’t help themselves, bless them’ stuff.

    If I was Lucy, I’d have kicked him in the goolies when he got home.

    No man, of course, was swayed by a beautiful woman, ever (although to be fair, Gladys obviously wasn’t swayed by looks…)

    What about Barnaby’s appetites?

  33. Whilst people are correct to say the US POTUS election result is still uncertain and therefore Trump could still win, a rational person would not care to bet on Trump at present. The polls can be wrong, but Biden’s lead is 2-3 times the MOE, suggesting they would have to be historically wrong fro Trump to win at this point. It is like saying Scomo’s next budget could be a genuine attempt to address inequality and fairness in workers’ wages in Australian society. Possible but you would not bet on it.

    And Trump’s polls are continuing to get worse. The margin is blowing out, not narrowing. His odds went down from 14% to 13% today. Biden now is up to a 31% chance of winning Texas! That hasn’t happened in most people’s lifetimes. 538 is running discussions on how to deal with probabilities in these extreme cases.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-the-model-is-responding-to-bidens-double-digit-lead-in-the-polls/

  34. A few years ago the Education Minister down here in Tasmania, Paula Wreidt, resigned after it became known she had ‘craved love and affection’ from her driver.

  39. Some in the media defending Gladys , claiming she did nothing wrong

    What about Gladys misleading the inquiry in evidence , Gladys denied she knew what Leeton UWE was.

    ICAC played phone calls which Gladys was talking about Leeton UWE

  40. Is it true that Victoria has “the longest lockdown in the world”? It’s not a classic lockdown when we can go shopping, go to parks, some can go to work, etc etc.

  41. “Where’s the ICAC? Birmingham says keeping people safe is more important. Oh, and the budget.”

    Also, there are no current scandals in the Federal arena involving Labor or the Unions.

  46. Is there any concern in NSW about the latest new cases? 7 locally acquired cases today – 2 doctors in Lakemba, A Disability support worker, etc. This could rapidly escalate…

  47. @letterboxfrog
    · 12m

    If Scott Morrison is actively using Whatsapp to bypass the Archives Act of 1983, what what part of Chapter 2 of the Criminal Code should be applied and charges laid against the PM? @friendlyjordies #CrimeMinister

  48. Shane Wright
    @swrighteconomy
    ·
    1h
    And the international student disaster continues. Just 50 came to Aust in August. Last year, 54,960 came back to Oz in August.

  50. Alpha Zero says:
    Tuesday, October 13, 2020 at 12:40 pm
    Is there any concern in NSW about the latest new cases? 7 locally acquired cases today – 2 doctors in Lakemba, A Disability support worker, etc. This could rapidly escalate…

    ——————-

    It won’t worry Gladys like Morrison , open the borders and let the corona virus spread

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