Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.

A new poll suggests Victorians remain sympathetic to Daniel Andrews, despite waning patience with COVID-19 restrictions.

It’s time for a new general discussion thread, but do take note of the other important new posts below this one before diving in:

• New state polling from Western Australia suggests there will be little left of the parliamentary Liberal Party after the election there in March;

• Guest contributor Adrian Beaumont offers his weekly situation report on the ever-eventful US election campaign;

• I launch my Queensland election guide, and in doing so provide a thread for discussion of that state’s October 31 election;

• I humbly plead for donations, as I do every two months.

Other than that, there is one further poll to report on in the shape of a Roy Morgan SMS poll from Victoria, following on from a similar efforts two and three weeks ago. This finds the Labor state government’s two-party lead unchanged at 51.5-48.5, but Daniel Andrews is down nine on approval to 61% and up nine on disapproval to 39%. There has also been movement in sentiment against existing COVID-19 restrictions, with a 61-39 split in favour of lifting the five kilometre rule (50-50 last time), 59-41 in favour of visits to immediate family members (55-45 in favour last time) and 56-44 in favour of a resumption of table service (63-37 against last time). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 2223.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,675 comments on “Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.”

Comments Page 31 of 34
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  2. BK

    Fool that I am, I have made the login/logout, dashboard area disappear by playing around with the date and time/region area.

    Now to try to get it back..

    Meanwhile the womens cricket is on and very good.

  9. Ok there are multiple parts to this poll. The Brisbane one to follow, then for the whole state.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/electorates/swing-away-from-lnp-in-gold-coast-and-sunshine-coast-seats/news-story/258c75b108ec31abedaa32f246bf6229

    Swing away from LNP in Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast seats
    Steven Wardill, The Courier-Mail
    October 5, 2020 4:00pm

    THE Deb Frecklington-led LNP has suffered a significant swing away from it throughout the traditional strangleholds of the Gold and Sunshine coasts.

    While the party still dominates the two coasts, there’s been a three per cent swing to Labor on a two-party preferred basis according to YouGov polling conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail.

    The LNP leads Labor 54 per cent to 46 per cent on the coasts compared to its 57 per cent to 43 per cent dominance at the 2017 state election.

    It comes after a six per cent surge in Labor’s primary vote to 33 per cent while the LNP’s support has risen from 43 per cent to 46 per cent.

    LNP preferences: Labor last in every seat

    Labor’s big gains have come from One Nation whose vote has dropped from 12 per cent to seven per cent.

    Support for other parties and independents has also fallen.

  10. There aren’t too many places in regional Qld the LNP come third, and their preferences generally go against Labor anyway so it’s nothing new under the sun. If they lose Burdekin it’ll be to KAP rather than Labor, and it might help the ON guy in Mirani hold on. That’s about it.

  11. Bridget Rollason
    @bridgerollo
    ·
    19m
    A case in Shepparton has been determined a false positive, which is good news for regional Vic. Rolling average will be updated tomorrow. A subsequent test returned a negative result after a rapid test returned a weak positive.
    @abcmelbourne
    #springst

    Excellent news.

    The Vics are stirring…

  13. BK

    I fiddled with the time zone thingy – changed to
    Brisbane did a reload PB changed back to Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney – did a reload PB
    and
    the Login/out area was back

    Pain in the proverbial.

  14. On the Gold Coast: a 3% swing to Labor would get them Bonney, and it’d be close in Currumbin, Coomera and Theodore (all between 3-4%.) Sunshine Coast: Caloundra and Glass House are also just above 3%, with a retiring MP in Caloundra. So, one seat with gusts of up to six.

  15. So, how’s everyone feeling about Labor’s breathless opposition right now?

    Anyway, It looks like the Coalition and Friends are about to drop a austerity budget on the country. Anyone expecting a cracker of a speech from Albo on Thursday?

    I don’t really see another moment for anyone to take notice of the ALP or Albo.

    So fingers crossed I’ve been wrong and Albo’s ready.

  16. Leroy @ #1508 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:09 pm

    Ok there are multiple parts to this poll. The Brisbane one to follow, then for the whole state.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/electorates/swing-away-from-lnp-in-gold-coast-and-sunshine-coast-seats/news-story/258c75b108ec31abedaa32f246bf6229

    Swing away from LNP in Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast seats
    Steven Wardill, The Courier-Mail
    October 5, 2020 4:00pm

    THE Deb Frecklington-led LNP has suffered a significant swing away from it throughout the traditional strangleholds of the Gold and Sunshine coasts.

    While the party still dominates the two coasts, there’s been a three per cent swing to Labor on a two-party preferred basis according to YouGov polling conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail.

    The LNP leads Labor 54 per cent to 46 per cent on the coasts compared to its 57 per cent to 43 per cent dominance at the 2017 state election.

    It comes after a six per cent surge in Labor’s primary vote to 33 per cent while the LNP’s support has risen from 43 per cent to 46 per cent.

    LNP preferences: Labor last in every seat

    Labor’s big gains have come from One Nation whose vote has dropped from 12 per cent to seven per cent.

    Support for other parties and independents has also fallen.

    Makes sense if you consider Labor was always strong on Border closure and the Libs were prevaricating for quite some time.

  17. Aggressive and demanding patients can be really difficult to handle. It’s foolish not to listen as it’s fair to say everyone has past experiences that often hold lessons, or personal expectations that in some circumstances are reasonable. The exercise of balanced judgement is part of the skill base, variously acquired.

    Aggressive and demanding VIPs are really really difficult. You have to stand up to them but by making the case for your treatment plan, not theirs. Keeping a patient’s trust, in fact keeping them liking you, is critical, from all and every aspect, not the least the medico-legal one. Patient’s rarely sue doctors they like. And I tell people that if they don’t like their doctor, go elsewhere.

    There’s difficult and difficult. At one extreme there was the uncontrollable violently aggressive drunk who was run over by a bus on Oxford Street after he fell off the back of a ute, thrashing and foul mouthed endless abuse pouring forth – a mix of alcohol, perhaps other drugs, hypoxia, and most of all fear. He died on the table. At the other extreme is the perfectly sane and not very sick ex premier who unable to control everything about himself, and others, had to suffer the indignity of being in a queue and then put under someone else’s control. The anger was outrageous, and actually had me so adrenalised my voice changed as I struggled to not personalise it – either way. Fear is the thing. As it is with Trump.

    The VIP syndrome is real. I dealt with a lot of VIPs over the decades because of where I worked. In an early major lesson for self, I had been asked if I could rearrange my schedule to do a (sitting PM) VIP in the Private sector by a surgeon I worked with in the Public. I was flattered, agreed, and then fell into the trap – after thinking it all through, I put it to the surgeon that I thought the best approach was to do techniques XYZ, for reasons not relevant here, but to do with (a faster) recovery rate, which were variations on a theme. He firmly pointed out that I was chosen because he liked what I did, how I did it, and the outcomes we got, and the very last thing he would sanction was a change in routine because of who we were dealing with, not what we were dealing with. Chastened. The patient was an absolute delight, very unVIPy, and it all went like a dream.

  19. south @ #1514 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:20 pm

    So, how’s everyone feeling about Labor’s breathless opposition right now?

    Anyway, It looks like the Coalition and Friends are about to drop a austerity budget on the country. Anyone expecting a cracker of a speech from Albo on Thursday?

    I don’t really see another moment for anyone to take notice of the ALP or Albo.

    So fingers crossed I’ve been wrong and Albo’s ready.

    Not sure that being a smart arse in these circumstances helps Labor or the voters. But, I’m sure you and the anti-Labor choir will disagree.

    Labor has got the Morrison recession meme up and running and the Libs are furious as being cast as the economic wreckers. Chalmers has emerged as a strong advocate for Labor. I reckon labor are travelling OK. But, it’s a long long way to go.

  20. Guardian news
    @guardiannews
    Paris bars to close for two weeks as city moves to maximum Covid alert

    Will Paris go for anti-human treatment lawsuit ?

  22. Greensborough Growler @ #1519 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    Labor has got the Morrison recession meme up and running and the Libs are furious as being cast as the economic wreckers. Chalmers has emerged as a strong advocate for Labor. I reckon labor are travelling OK. But, it’s a long long way to go.

    a long long way to go.

    That’s the thing right there. As lizzie pointed out earlier, it’s becoming all but impossible to ever imagine winding back the increasingly entrenched bastardry. I can understand the impatience.

  23. Zerlo @ #1520 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:34 pm

    Guardian news
    @guardiannews
    Paris bars to close for two weeks as city moves to maximum Covid alert

    Will Paris go for anti-human treatment lawsuit ?

    Imagine! Bars and cafes evolved from basically the lack of reasonable kitchens in small Parisian apartments, and a lot hasn’t changed. It’s a huge imposition.

  24. ItzaDream @ #1521 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:38 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1519 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:29 pm

    Labor has got the Morrison recession meme up and running and the Libs are furious as being cast as the economic wreckers. Chalmers has emerged as a strong advocate for Labor. I reckon labor are travelling OK. But, it’s a long long way to go.

    a long long way to go.

    That’s the thing right there. As lizzie pointed out earlier, it’s becoming all but impossible to ever imagine winding back the increasingly entrenched bastardry. I can understand the impatience.

    Opposition sucks. But, that’s where Labor is atm. Labor wins by making the voters disenchanted with the Libs. Sure, every one thinks there is a pot pourri of opportunity to do this here on PB. But, most voters are concerned with jobs, the pandemic and those thing s will impact them now and are indifferent , at best, at the ranting and ravings of the politically “switched on” .

    I reckon Labor’s move to the centre, where the votes are is a good move and letting the libs spend “like wreckless sailors” will resonate once the Libs move to recoup all the money they have spent.

    Patience, grasshopper.

  25. Finally a result.

    Ewin Hannan
    @EwinHannan
    ·
    2m
    Kathy Jackson has been convicted of stealing more than $100,000 from the Health Services Union, following a plea deal.
    @australian
    https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/kathy-jackson-found-guilty-of-swindling-health-services-union-of-100k/news-story/5b592e81922d297717ec67e48c33191d?utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=TABreakingNews&net_sub_id=@@@@@@@@@@&type=curated&position=1&overallPos=1&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=TA_BREAKING_CUR_01&utm_content=279110873

  27. BK @ #1528 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:52 pm

    George Pell’s barrister has called for an international investigation into claims Pell’s bitter Vatican rival authorised bribes for witnesses to give evidence against him. Robert Richter QC said the alleged $1.1 million money trail between Rome and Australia was there to be investigated.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/cardinal-george-pell-flies-to-rome-amid-vatican-corruption-claims/news-story/42ed676243911edc91109c1803f2b922

    Is it possible for us to close our borders tight enough that he can’t come back?

  32. ItzaDream @ #1517 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 5:22 pm

    Aggressive and demanding patients can be really difficult to handle. It’s foolish not to listen as it’s fair to say everyone has past experiences that often hold lessons, or personal expectations that in some circumstances are reasonable. The exercise of balanced judgement is part of the skill base, variously acquired.

    Aggressive and demanding VIPs are really really difficult. You have to stand up to them but by making the case for your treatment plan, not theirs. Keeping a patient’s trust, in fact keeping them liking you, is critical, from all and every aspect, not the least the medico-legal one. Patient’s rarely sue doctors they like. And I tell people that if they don’t like their doctor, go elsewhere.

    There’s difficult and difficult. At one extreme there was the uncontrollable violently aggressive drunk who was run over by a bus on Oxford Street after he fell off the back of a ute, thrashing and foul mouthed endless abuse pouring forth – a mix of alcohol, perhaps other drugs, hypoxia, and most of all fear. He died on the table. At the other extreme is the perfectly sane and not very sick ex premier who unable to control everything about himself, and others, had to suffer the indignity of being in a queue and then put under someone else’s control. The anger was outrageous, and actually had me so adrenalised my voice changed as I struggled to not personalise it – either way. Fear is the thing. As it is with Trump.

    The VIP syndrome is real. I dealt with a lot of VIPs over the decades because of where I worked. In an early major lesson for self, I had been asked if I could rearrange my schedule to do a (sitting PM) VIP in the Private sector by a surgeon I worked with in the Public. I was flattered, agreed, and then fell into the trap – after thinking it all through, I put it to the surgeon that I thought the best approach was to do techniques XYZ, for reasons not relevant here, but to do with (a faster) recovery rate, which were variations on a theme. He firmly pointed out that I was chosen because he liked what I did, how I did it, and the outcomes we got, and the very last thing he would sanction was a change in routine because of who we were dealing with, not what we were dealing with. Chastened. The patient was an absolute delight, very unVIPy, and it all went like a dream.

    I can fix a car, fix the plumbing and all sorts of stuff. When it comes to my health I listen to the experts, most of the time as in smoking, booze and various other vices. When they suggest some medication or treatment I’ll go with their advice, apart from the previously mentioned vices. I mention those things because so far, touch wood (while I tap my head) I haven’t had anything go really wrong. If something does I’ve made it very clear to my family, if something goes wrong due to those vices, I’m not to be resuscitated. I’m here for a good time, not a long time. Be kind to each other, even on here.

  33. He’s using “black coal matters”. 🙁

    Matthew Canavan
    @mattjcan
    · 2h
    Bob’s back! … And this time he is on a mission to create 500 jobs at the New Acland Mine. Go Bob!!!

  34. The TPP shift is from 58-42 to Labor in 2017, to 57-43 to Labor in this poll.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/electorates/huge-surge-in-support-could-topple-key-labor-figures/news-story/7cc2f082f11b6996a09ec07b668951c8

    JACKIE Trad’s fight to reclaim her under-siege seat has been dealt a savage blow in the eve of the 2020 election with support for the Greens surging in the Great Brisbane area.

    The Courier-Mail’s exclusive YouGov poll of 2000 Queenslanders has found the Greens’ primary vote has jumped to 16 per cent from 13 per cent at the 2017 state election.

    …………..

    The results show the LNP has lifted its primary vote in Great Brisbane from 31 per cent to 34 per cent while Labor’s primary vote is relatively stable at 42 per cent.

    On a two-party preferred basis there has been a one per cent swing to the LNP however Labor still dominates 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

  36. Those polls in Qld are terrible for the LNP. They’ll be crapping it, and Labor still have big ticket announcements to come.

  37. “The TPP shift is from 58-42 to Labor in 2017, to 57-43 to Labor in this poll.”
    “Huge surge in support could topple Labor figures”

    What?

  38. Sohar – they think the rise in Greens primary from 13 to 16 will help them in a couple of seats where their support is concentrated, espcially Trad’s seat. We’ll see.

  39. Sohar

    The orcs over at the Rupertarium were more restrained in their assessment of the fraction of the MOE move , a mere ‘jump’ 🙂

    LNP poll jump in regions

  43. hoddo46
    @hoddo461
    Replying to
    @factchekka

    @tspedo1
    and 2 others
    MMM Capital socialism. The Rand report has just found that over the last 40 years (Thatcher/Reaganism) $50 trillion, yes trillion has been redistributed from the bottom 90% to the top 10% majority going to the top 1%. That’s not capitalism that’s kleptocracy. Neolib is a failure.

  48. The Queensland poll is very interesting in a number of ways.

    The breakdown into Brisbane, regions and Gold / Sunshine Coast would appear on the surface to show a status quo result.

    Some huge assumptions being made by the Courier Mail on the back of a 3% increase in the greens PV in Brisbane. It all depends obviously where the increase is happening. Is it uniform across Brisbane or is it concentrated in inner city seats ? Too many unknowns at this stage but hey that will not let the CM hold back on their ongoing anti labor bullshit.

    What I would find interesting is a breakdown of Gold Coast 2PP and Sunshine Coast 2PP. It would not surprise if the Gold Coast movement is more labor friendly than the Sunshine Coast and that would be interesting given the number of LNP Gold Coast seats in the “ marginal”range.

    Anyway, interesting poll but nothing more at this point.

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