Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.

A new poll suggests Victorians remain sympathetic to Daniel Andrews, despite waning patience with COVID-19 restrictions.

It’s time for a new general discussion thread, but do take note of the other important new posts below this one before diving in:

• New state polling from Western Australia suggests there will be little left of the parliamentary Liberal Party after the election there in March;

• Guest contributor Adrian Beaumont offers his weekly situation report on the ever-eventful US election campaign;

• I launch my Queensland election guide, and in doing so provide a thread for discussion of that state’s October 31 election;

• I humbly plead for donations, as I do every two months.

Other than that, there is one further poll to report on in the shape of a Roy Morgan SMS poll from Victoria, following on from a similar efforts two and three weeks ago. This finds the Labor state government’s two-party lead unchanged at 51.5-48.5, but Daniel Andrews is down nine on approval to 61% and up nine on disapproval to 39%. There has also been movement in sentiment against existing COVID-19 restrictions, with a 61-39 split in favour of lifting the five kilometre rule (50-50 last time), 59-41 in favour of visits to immediate family members (55-45 in favour last time) and 56-44 in favour of a resumption of table service (63-37 against last time). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 2223.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,675 comments on “Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.”

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  2. I have completely turned off when it comes to the Morrison/Frydenberg budget. For me it will be about a few scraps (if anything) for the great majority and a bonanza for the “right” people.

  3. “Little doubt about it. Trump’s doctor is a commander, maybe a reserve, in the USN, so technically he’s obliged to follow the orders of the C-in-C. ”

    Xanthippe commented on this. It isn’t that simple. There is a chain of command so the doctors do NOT take their orders direct from Trump. Other rules ensure doctors cannot ignore their ethical and medical obligations while on duty. So no, they would only have issued those drugs if they believed Trump’s condition warranted it.

  4. citizen

    It’s not so much that I have no interest in the budget, but rather that I know it will make all the wrong assumptions to buy the goodwill of Scotty’s tribe. And assuming that there will be a vaccine ready and working to save the economy by next year? They’ve been drinking Trump’s cordial.

  6. Dee Madigan
    @deemadigan
    ·
    24m
    The
    @LNPQLD are giving preferences to Clive Palmer. No wonder people think @DebFrecklington
    is weak as piss when she makes decisions like this. No ethics. No leadership.

  7. Socrates:

    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 3:49 pm

    [‘There is a chain of command so the doctors do NOT take their orders direct from Trump.’]

    If it was anyone other than Trump, agree. I think he’s directing to some extent his own care and what his doctors say to the press. The very circumstance that he did a circuit around the rabble outside Walter Reid suggests that he’s in almost total control, going against the recommendations of his doctors who surely would’ve advised against such recklessness.

  12. Can someone be an accessory before the fact to reckless behaviour endangering life?

    Cf. “reckless attempt” etc.

  13. Mavis

    It’s an example of how hopeless our gov is in their planning. It’s all emotional “what we hope will happen”, rather than dealing with facts.

  14. Katharine Murphy tells us that the Morrison government is attempting to ratchet up political pressure on the states to quicken the pace of infrastructure projects to help kickstart the economic recovery, signalling it will focus federal resources on jurisdictions willing to cooperate and shun laggards.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/05/coalition-pressures-states-to-deliver-infrastructure-projects-or-miss-out-on-funds

    There go what is left of our building standards. That time bomb is just about to get a whole lot worse. 🙁

    ––––––

    Bushfire Bill @ #1403 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 11:48 am

    Coney Barrett is described as having a brilliant legal mind (along with a number of other superlatives). Why then did she attend her nomination function where most of the attendees failed to take basic C.19 precautions?

    Coney Barrett’s was infected months ago, and fully recovered. So, probably immune.

    She took her family to the event, and the oldest of her 5 children is 16.

  15. SfM’s ‘budget’ is not worth the paper it’s written on. Just another announcement to publicise for a few days…then back to making it up as they go.

  18. poroti

    That may be, but it’s not an instant solution and rewind to normal. It will take time to distribute the vaccine in adequate numbers to enough countries.

  19. JMsays: Monday, October 5, 2020 at 4:17 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #1403 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 11:48 am

    Coney Barrett is described as having a brilliant legal mind (along with a number of other superlatives). Why then did she attend her nomination function where most of the attendees failed to take basic C.19 precautions?

    She took her family to the event, and the oldest of her 5 children is 16.

    **********************************

    Small correction :

    Amy Coney Barrett and husband Jesse have seven children ranging in age from eight to 19.

    In order of age, they are Emma (19), Vivian (16), Tess (16), John Peter (13), Liam (11), Juliet (9), and Benjamin (8).

    Two were adopted from Haiti and one child has Down Syndrome and special needs.

    https://www.the-sun.com/news/1537769/amy-coney-barrett-family-husband-children-supreme-court/

  24. Plus some of the vaccines are already in production and being stockpiled for use once trials are completed & approvals are obtained.

    You don’t do that unless you are pretty confident.

    But we don’t know a lot of things including how long the vaccine will be effective and what boosters will be required.

  25. lizzie

    I think there is likely to be a vaccine but yes what Josh and Scrott claim will be the result of there being a vaccine is another story. A story full of ‘heroic assumptions’ .

  26. As a f’r’instance. Australia get supplies of the vaccine, inoculates all the population and we’re good to go. Meanwhile, our trading partners haven’t caught up. Or some other countries use an ineffective vaccine and cause an outbreak here.

  29. It’s just another Magic Pudding Budget. Just like the ‘Back In Black’ Budget. Telling us what they want us to hear and building their assumptions on a house of cards. However, by next year’s Budget, when it doesn’t come to pass, there will be a new spin, to replace the old spin.

  30. Player:

    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 4:13 pm

    [‘So is there an alternate ‘real world’ budget as well, or are we all supposed to move to Fantasy Island?’]

    Well, it would be great if a vaccine is approved but many argue that it’s some time off. So I guess it is a matter of ‘Fantasy Island’ at this point in time.

  32. Morrison and his cronies have multiple of times, claimed Australians could see the vaccine from January /Feburary next year

  33. Would like to see YouGov’s weightings- they are basing this 47/53 result on the 2017 result which they claim to have a 2PP of 48/52.

    ‘One of the largest weighted public opinion polls ever in Queensland, the results show a small swing to the LNP on a two-party preferred basis outside the southeast corner.

    Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington’s team leads Labor 53 per cent to 47 per cent based on preference flows at recent Queensland elections.

    It comes after One Nation’s primary support plummeted from 21 per cent at the 2017 election to 14 per cent.

    Labor’s primary vote has improved slightly from 30 per cent to 32 per cent while the LNP has risen from 31 per cent to 35 per cent.

    The Greens have also improved to seven per cent while Katter’s Australian Party was also on seven per cent.

  37. Scott

    That’s about the time a number of the phase III trials will have wrapped up. Seems a popular time to pick, a Russian official a week or so back gave the same time frame for their candidate vaccine.

  41. Mavis

    “If it was anyone other than Trump, agree. I think he’s directing to some extent his own care and what his doctors say to the press. The very circumstance that he did a circuit around the rabble outside Walter Reid suggests that he’s in almost total control, going against the recommendations of his doctors who surely would’ve advised against such recklessness.”

    You may be correct, but if the doctors have given in to Trump in that way they are breaking their medical ethics obligations. If a patient demands an inappropriate drug (e.g. addictive painkillers) you can’t just give it to them because they demand it. If they are your boss that may be difficult, but you still shouldn’t give in to them.

  43. Paddy Manning comes back from holiday with a bang!

    Most ominously, of all the measures announced, this morning’s AFR indicates that the legislated stage-two and stage-three tax cuts will be brought forward from their start dates of 2022 and 2024. The Liberal Party, like the Republican Party in the United States, has adopted tax cuts as an article of faith. As in America, when this philosophy is combined with increased spending – particularly on defence – the predictable result is ballooning debt and deficit.

    Frydenberg has harked back fondly to Reaganomics, but the myth of conservative fiscal rectitude is laid bare in the caustic bestseller It Was All A Lie: How the Republican Party became Donald Trump by Stuart Stevens, a political consultant to the GOP for decades. Stevens writes that former president George H.W. Bush’s contemporaneous description of Reagan’s policies as “voodoo economics” summed up the “utterly nutty idea that it was possible to cut taxes and increase spending without adding to the deficit”.

    … Stevens writes that the Reagan administration believed “they had a moral duty to cut taxes, particularly for the wealthy, who were the most deserving because they were, well, wealthy, and had proved themselves superior to those of lesser means”.

    …On the flipside, Republicans are serious about cutting welfare. Stevens writes that in the language war waged by the GOP: “‘Welfare’ is what the poor get because they are, well, poor, and being poor is a choice because in America anyone can succeed.”

    Sound familiar? From Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison (and Josh Frydenberg), the Liberal Party is heading down the same road: taxpayer largesse for the “deserving” well-off, austerity for the “undeserving” poor. The party’s sympathies are for the top dog, not the underdog. Not only is it unfair, it’s bad policy.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2020/05/2020/1601872863/tax-ruts

  44. phoenixRED @ #1469 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 2:54 pm

    Small correction :

    Amy Coney Barrett and husband Jesse have seven children ranging in age from eight to 19.

    In order of age, they are Emma (19), Vivian (16), Tess (16), John Peter (13), Liam (11), Juliet (9), and Benjamin (8).

    Two were adopted from Haiti and one child has Down Syndrome and special needs.

    https://www.the-sun.com/news/1537769/amy-coney-barrett-family-husband-children-supreme-court/

    Thanks for correction.

  47. Talk about ideological insanity! University is NOT all about training you to become a cog in a machine somewhere:

    “There has been no progression since Friday and in all likelihood negotiations will go down to the line.”

    NINE MEDIA

    Centre Alliance’s Stirling Griff responds to a joint statement by fellow South Australian senators Sarah Hanson-Young of the Greens and independent Rex Patrick, urging him not to support the Morrison government’s contentious Job-Ready Graduates Bill.

  48. A 1% swing to LNP outside SEQ? That gets them… Townsville. And that’s it. Either that’s uniform, or their vote’s going well up in Townsville but slightly down everywhere else (in which case, they pick up Mundingburra and Thuringowa, but have to worry about Whitsunday and Burdekin). Either way, they don’t get to win the election on those figures.

  49. Bird of Paradox,
    How do you factor in the Preferences decision of the LNP? Does it increase the LNP’s chances in a material way?

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