Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.

A new poll suggests Victorians remain sympathetic to Daniel Andrews, despite waning patience with COVID-19 restrictions.

It’s time for a new general discussion thread, but do take note of the other important new posts below this one before diving in:

• New state polling from Western Australia suggests there will be little left of the parliamentary Liberal Party after the election there in March;

• Guest contributor Adrian Beaumont offers his weekly situation report on the ever-eventful US election campaign;

• I launch my Queensland election guide, and in doing so provide a thread for discussion of that state’s October 31 election;

• I humbly plead for donations, as I do every two months.

Other than that, there is one further poll to report on in the shape of a Roy Morgan SMS poll from Victoria, following on from a similar efforts two and three weeks ago. This finds the Labor state government’s two-party lead unchanged at 51.5-48.5, but Daniel Andrews is down nine on approval to 61% and up nine on disapproval to 39%. There has also been movement in sentiment against existing COVID-19 restrictions, with a 61-39 split in favour of lifting the five kilometre rule (50-50 last time), 59-41 in favour of visits to immediate family members (55-45 in favour last time) and 56-44 in favour of a resumption of table service (63-37 against last time). The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 2223.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,675 comments on “Victorian COVID-19 polling, etc.”

Comments Page 29 of 34
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  1. I will also add that the same 4 clueless individuals don’t appear to have seen the press conference earlier this morning on the ABC with the Shadow Treasurer (tomorrow being Budget Day) and the Shadow Infrastructure Minister (commenting on the Coalition’s Infrastructure announcement).

    Not good enough for some people, apparently.

    Honestly, with friends like them, Labor doesn’t need enemies.

  2. spray

    Amelia Adams, Channel Nine Washington Correspondent, started work as a former Sky News journalist. No Walkley Awards yet.

  3. Coney Barrett is described as having a brilliant legal mind (along with a number of other superlatives). Why then did she attend her nomination function where most of the attendees failed to take basic C.19 precautions?

    Coney Barrett’s was infected months ago, and fully recovered. So, probably immune.

  4. Steve Schmidt on the Trump parade:

    Steve Schmidt

    Trump’s ride will be talked about 30 years from now like it happened yesterday. It will be viewed as the worst photo op in Presidential History. It speaks perfectly to his sociopathy, recklessness, neediness and the extremes of his movement. @ProjectLincoln looks forward to
    Crucifying him (politically) with it this week. He looks completely deranged as he conjures the definitive 21st Century Dr. Strangeglove vibe as he waves at the Q-Anon freak show from inside the hermetically sealed Presidential Suburban with two Secret Service hostages.

    Trump’s malevolent insanity and malfeasance have wrecked the country. At least 150,000 are dead who shouldn’t be. The economy is wrecked for the little guy while Trump’s cronies and family engorge themselves. School is ruined and so many pleasures of life are ended because of Covid
    and Trump’s imbecility. I wish I was able to be in the room with @SenatorCollins and @TheRickWilson @reedgalen and @stuartpstevens when she sees the ad coming for her with Trump in the limo. Trump ended his Presidency this week.

    The disclosure that he is a tax cheat combined with his unhinged and out of control debate performance, which included a call to arms for fascist militia groups, threats of violence and sinister insinuations about a peaceful transition of power being dependent on his victory were more than enough to finish him. But at long last Karma has found its’ way to Donald John Trump. His recklessness and casual disregard for human life have caused an epic tragedy in America. That same recklessness and buffoonery has destroyed his campaign. It is bankrupt and broken. Its’ leadership is scandalized. There is chaos in the White House and in the campaign. It is coming apart. The staff are confused and scared. They have been disregarded and treated like disposable dog shit bags. No one trusts anyone or believes anything on the inside. It’s breaking up.

    “ THE RIDE” will be the eternal symbol of Trump’s collapse. He looks like a fool. A reckless fool who failed America more than any other American who has ever lived. Get ready for Trump’s version of Dukakis in the tank. It will be our tribute to Roger Ailes with a special dedication to @kimguilfoyle for upholding the highest standards of depravity and insanity at the FNC. America, the sane part, has come to expect nothing less.

  5. Coronavirus restrictions in New Zealand’s largest city will be lifted this week, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Monday as she expressed confidence a second wave of COVID-19 infections in Auckland has been almost eliminated.

    The city will move to alert level 1 from 11.59 p.m. on Wednesday, joining the rest of the country, after reporting no new cases in the Auckland cluster for 10 consecutive days.

    “There is now a 95% probability of the cluster being eliminated,” Ardern said at a news conference. “COVID-19 will be with us for many months to come. But we should still mark these milestones.”

    New Zealand, a nation of five million, appeared to have stamped out community transmission of COVID-19 earlier this year following a tough nationwide lockdown that was subsequently lifted.

    The renewed Auckland outbreak, detected in August, was the biggest the country had seen with 179 linked cases, prompted Ardern to reinforce restrictions in Auckland.

    The easing of measures means there will be no 100 people limit on gatherings in Auckland, and no physical distancing rules in bars and restaurants.

  9. Notice how the media is ignoring the Liberal party government in Tasmania, not allowing residents in Morrison’s gold standard state of NSW , to enter Tasmania .

    on the 26th of October

    Residents of S.A ,QLD, W.A and N.T are allowed into Tasmania

  10. Spray

    That’s shocking. We’re not bound to the American Presidency. I thought Ch9 was just a smidgeon better than Seven. Have they no pride in Australia?

  11. mundo says:
    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 1:25 pm
    Spray @ #1397 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 1:02 pm

    Sohar @ #1390 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 12:52 pm

    “Where is Anthony Albanese”. Can we have Bill Shorten or someone else, please? Albo is useless.
    Someone else.
    Time to blood Chalmers.

    _________________-
    Jim’s sensitive approach may be just what Labor needs at this time!

  13. I do not know why that happened. Sorry about inflicting 2 pictures of Trump on you! Can’t see the Edit function/Dashboard either.

  14. Bushfire Bill:

    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 1:18 pm

    [‘Coney Barrett’s was infected months ago, and fully recovered. So, probably immune.’]

    Yes, I’m aware of that but she should’ve had the backbone to say to Trump, this event in my honour is in contravention of C.19 CDC guidelines. That’s why I described her as thoughtless – I’m alright Jack. This women’s vote on the SCOTUS has the potential to affect many millions of lives, yet no doubt overcome with all the razzmatazz, failed her first basic test. And I wonder how she feels about the President of her alma mater contracting C.19?

  15. Bill Shorten
    @billshortenmp
    In July, the communities in the Flemington & North Melbourne towers sacrificed all to keep us safe, locking down to stop the spread. For the first time since the outbreak, the towers are COVID-free! Big congrats and thank you to the residents


  16. Socrates says:
    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 1:08 pm

    Display Name

    “That is less about being an economic dunce, and more about the selfishness and lack of care for fellow human beings that characterises modern Australia.”

    I agree. foreign students have been treated like inhuman cash cows and no wonder they are leaving.

    The treatment of international backpackers is no better.
    ….

    Morrison has shat in out nest; twice. And all these mindless minions can do is chant hotel hotel”, it beggars belief.

  17. Are Trump’s doctors so afraid of The Boss that they allowed him out of his cage this morning? Quite apart from the danger of infection to everyone around him. Has any other President been so arrogant as to disobey medical advice?

  18. With various individuals who have contracted C19 it has been found that their immunity may only last for a few months. People have been contracting C19 a second or third time. Who knows, Amy Coney Barratt may not still be immune at all. I hope she is.

  19. lizzie @ #1417 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 1:51 pm

    Are Trump’s doctors so afraid of The Boss that they allowed him out of his cage this morning? Quite apart from the danger of infection to everyone around him. Has any other President been so arrogant as to disobey medical advice?

    Watch the CNN clip I linked to for the answers to that question. 🙂

  20. As you were. Apparently all was OK.

    White House spokesman Judd Deere described the drive as a “short, last-minute motorcade ride to wave to his supporters” and said Trump quickly returned to his hospital suite.

    Mr Deere said “appropriate precautions were taken” before the ride to protect the President and those supporting him.

    “The movement was cleared by the medical team as safe to do,” he said.

  21. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt

    Here’s an example of the federal government spending your money to keep themselves in office.

    Extreme pork barrelling

    The Country University Centres do not run courses and do not have “students”.

    They’re glorified drop-in centres. They teach nothing & have no teaching staff.

    ***
    These internet cafes (they’re not a “university”) are headed up & promoted by Angus Taylor’s brother & Bronnie Taylor’s husband, Duncan.

    They’ve received egregious amounts of NSW govt & federal govt funding

    Money for local TAFES & local libraries – gone

    ***
    These drop-in centres claim to provide “support” for distance/on-line learning rural students.

    But the actual courses and teaching are provided by the TAFES and universities themselves

    So it’s not evident exactly what these “University” centres actually do that libraries don’t.

  23. It really puzzles me how a Labor, or a mixed coalition of non-LNP government, could possibly undo all the harm done by the years of the Coalition. It would require so much money, so much reform of the structures of government, and frankly so much top-quality salesmanship, to make people understand that the changes would be to their advantage, while the LNP and the Nats would fight every step of the way.

  24. rhwombat:

    Dex is also notorious for exacerbating insomnia, agitation and/or delirium – very few sleep if given a dose in the afternoon. My guess is that the combination of dex, hubris and desperation has driven Trump to demonstrate his callous stupidity by driving out to spread the joy. The President’s Evil (in both the possessive and abbreviative apostrophe sense)?

    I’m prescribed a course of Dex starting every second Friday (IV Friday AM, oral Friday PM, Saturday AM, Saturday PM, Sunday AM). This has several effects:
    – up until 5AM Saturday, 4AM sunday (I use the time to talk to my brother in Boston and to US based staff and partners as it aligns well with their day)
    – bowel slows to a stop
    – somewhat irritable (but not delirious!)
    And of course strange posts to PB inn the early hours of the morning!

    I don’t make important decisions during this time (but temporarily reduced acuity is more irinotecan than dex, I think). Interestingly (based on subsequent observation from after the compromised period of things written during the period) the compromise is superficial (expression is poor but underlying ideas are right).

  25. lizzie

    while the LNP and the Nats would fight every step of the way.

    The problem is that you can add a group of Labor mp’s to that as well, which makes it all seem impossible.

    Voters really do need to put their long-built partisanships to one side in order to drain the swamp.

  28. Rex Douglas @ #1421 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 1:59 pm

    Spray @ #1398 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 1:02 pm

    Sohar @ #1390 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 12:52 pm

    “Where is Anthony Albanese”. Can we have Bill Shorten or someone else, please? Albo is useless.

    Someone else.

    Yes, it’s got to be Ged.

    She has the experience.

    She’s got the temperament.

    Too early for Chalmers – he’s still wet behind the ears, as shown up on Insiders.

    There’s plenty of time for Chalmers to gain confidence once he’s in the big chair.
    Ged’s potentially too divisive I reckon, deputy for sure.
    Labor’s still 3 or 4 years from having a decent crack. Albo will be allowed to ‘have his turn’, lose, and then shuffle off…..spend some time with Kim and Bill and Simon and talk of what might have been over a few reds….from time to time…..

  29. Albo is in Melbourne.

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 1:59 pm

    Spray @ #1398 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 1:02 pm

    Sohar @ #1390 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 12:52 pm

    Trolls.

  30. Here you go, Rex. Someone who’s been there speaks up. It got a lot of reaction with many thinking Chalmers is ready. What has Tony Windsor seen that you can’t.

    @TonyHWindsor
    I thought
    @JEChalmers
    spoke well on
    @InsidersABC
    this morning on the budget/economy and the stupidity of high income tax cuts. Clear thinker.
    7:14 PM · Oct 4, 2020

  32. BH @ #1430 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 2:19 pm

    Here you go, Rex. Someone who’s been there speaks up. It got a lot of reaction with many thinking Chalmers is ready. What has Tony Windsor seen that you can’t.

    @TonyHWindsor
    I thought
    @JEChalmers
    spoke well on
    @InsidersABC
    this morning on the budget/economy and the stupidity of high income tax cuts. Clear thinker.
    7:14 PM · Oct 4, 2020

    TW is entitled to pump up Chalmers tyres. Good luck to him.

    I think Ged can be our Jacinda. Who wouldn’t want that !?

  33. Jay Rosen, Professor of Journalism at NYU:

    Jay Rosen
    @jayrosen_nyu

    I would like to see journalists begin to treat the manufacture of confusion by the Trump government as basic to its style of governance. Instead of a suprising discovery, a consistent pattern. Instead of a sad sack whose bumbling leads to confusion, confusion as political method.

  34. lizzie:

    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 1:51 pm

    [‘Are Trump’s doctors so afraid of The Boss that they allowed him out of his cage this morning?’]

    Little doubt about it. Trump’s doctor is a commander, maybe a reserve, in the USN, so technically he’s obliged to follow the orders of the C-in-C. This used to be a problem in the RAN, best evidenced by the sinking of the Voyager in ’64. The Commanding Officer of the Voyager at the time it sunk was Duncan Stevens, who was known to drink heavily, even during complicated and dangerous night exercises. IIRC, the second RC into the collision with HMAS Melbourne recommended that senior officers’ medicals should be conducted by civilian doctors as they are not shackled by rank imbalance. The doctor on the Voyager, Surgeon Lieutenant Tiller, failed to carry out a thorough physical examination of Stevens.
    Had a proper one been conducted, evidence of Stevens’ alcoholism – eg, an enlarged liver & other signs – would most likely have been revealed, and he would’ve lost his command.

  36. I see Guardian Australia is running Rudd op-eds.

    Now why would they soil their publication by giving this individual a platform .?

    Is Pauline Hanson next ??

  37. Mavis Davis:

    Little doubt about it. Trump’s doctor is a commander, maybe a reserve, in the USN, so technically he’s obliged to follow the orders of the C-in-C.

    He is obliged to follow lawful orders of his commanders, including the C-in-C.

    He is—like all service personnel, medical or otherwise—obliged to refuse unlawful orders.

    Orders that create a public health danger would seem likely to be in the latter category .

  38. I think Dan was runner-up today at the daily masterclass to Brett Sutton who is confirming my opinion of him as an excellent communicator. Had little trouble dealing with Rachel and her colleagues.

    Sutton would make an excellent political leader, but sadly I’m not sure politics is his passion.

  40. This is the leader of The Proud Boys, who rallied Trump supporters outside Walter Reed Medical Center. The photo says it all, really.

    I suspect his only object of affection is his hand!

  41. E. G. Theodore:

    Monday, October 5, 2020 at 3:03 pm

    [‘He is—like all service personnel, medical or otherwise—obliged to refuse unlawful orders.’]

    In theory, yes; in the Trumpeshere, no!

  42. BK @ #1440 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 3:19 pm

    This is the leader of The Proud Boys, who rallied Trump supporters outside Walter Reed Medical Center. The photo says it all, really.
    ” rel=”nofollow ugc”>

    Looks like Bill Shorten with a beard.

    Just as an aside, someone the other day said I look like George Clooney. I was pretty happy with that. 😆

  44. If there is a spill on – my guess is Shortens numbers would line up behind Albo.

    give Albo his shot and thereby get rid of him , sensitive Jim to play the role of downer and the restoration in 2024 in time for the election of Shorten in 2025 as PM.

  45. You could just see this unfolding…

    ‘Because of the incomplete picture offered by the president’s doctors, it was not clear whether they had given him dexamethasone too quickly, or whether the president was far sicker than has been publicly acknowledged, experts in infectious disease and emergency medicine said on Sunday.

    “The dexamethasone is the most mystifying of the drugs we’re seeing him being given at this point,” said Dr. Thomas McGinn, physician-in-chief at Northwell Health, the largest health care provider in New York State. The drug is normally not used unless the patient’s condition seems to be deteriorating, he added.

    “Suddenly, they’re throwing the kitchen sink at him,” Dr. McGinn said. “It raises the question: Is he sicker than we’re hearing, or are they being overly aggressive because he is the president, in a way that could be potentially harmful?”

    Dr. Esther Choo, a professor of emergency medicine at Oregon Health & Science University in Portland, said of the doctors’ statements on Sunday: “This is no longer aspirationally positive. And it’s much more than just an ‘abundance of caution’ kind of thing.”

    Some experts raised an additional possibility: that the president is directing his own care, and demanding intense treatment despite risks he may not fully understand. The pattern even has a name: V.I.P. syndrome, which describes prominent figures who receive poor medical care because doctors are too zealous in treating them — or defer too readily to their instructions.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/health/trump-covid-treatment.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

  46. Bloody hell! Just found this.

    Ahead of the federal budget tomorrow, senior cabinet ministers have defended the decision to base federal budget forecasts on the availability of a Covid-19 vaccine.

    AAP reports that Tuesday’s budget will be built on the assumption a vaccine will be made available next year, despite warnings the drug may not be effective or widespread enough to bring the economy back to normal.

  49. The images of bearded gentlemen are quite amusing.

    Millions of citizens in similar or not well off situations will be pissed off because nobody appears to give the traditional rat’s arse about them.

    MAGA may sound good to them – real or imaginary. 🐀

  50. sprocket_ @ #1445 Monday, October 5th, 2020 – 2:33 pm

    Some experts raised an additional possibility: that the president is directing his own care, and demanding intense treatment despite risks he may not fully understand. The pattern even has a name: V.I.P. syndrome, which describes prominent figures who receive poor medical care because doctors are too zealous in treating them — or defer too readily to their instructions.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/health/trump-covid-treatment.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    Trump would be in historic company.

    On December 13, 1799, George Washington awoke with a bad sore throat and began to decline rapidly. A proponent of bloodletting, he asked to be bled the next day, and physicians drained an estimated 5 to 7 pints in less than 16 hours. Despite their best efforts, Washington died on December 17, leading to speculation that excessive blood loss contributed to his demise.

    https://www.history.com/news/a-brief-history-of-bloodletting

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