The Australian today reports Newspoll findings on COVID-19 and leadership approval from Victoria and Queensland, which were targeted with expanded samples (608 and 603 respectively) in the poll whose main results were published yesterday:
• Daniel Andrews is up five points on approval from late July to 62% and down two on approval to 35%, whereas Scott Morrison is down six on approval to 62% and up seven on disapproval to 33%. Andrews is reckoned to be doing very well in handling COVID-19 by 31% (up four), fairly well by 31% (down three), fairly badly by 13% (down five) and very badly by 22% (up four), while Morrison is on 26% for very well (down five), 45% for fairly well (down one), 15% for fairly badly (up three) and 10% for very badly (up one).
• Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings are only modestly changed, with approval down one to 63% and disapproval up four to 33% as compared with the poll in late July, while Scott Morrison is down five to 67% and up four to 28% as compared with the poll in late June. Both leaders’ COVID-19 ratings are a little weaker than they were in late July: Palaszczuk records 32% for very well (down five), 36% for fairly well (down eight), 16% for fairly badly (up eight) and 13% for very badly (up seven), while Morrison has 34% for very well (down six), 43% for fairly well (up three), 13% for fairly badly (up two) and 7% for very badly (up one).
• The national sample was asked about the restrictions in Victoria and Queensland, which naturally required lengthy explanation (the framing of which seems reasonable enough). For Victoria, the results were 25% too strict, 61% about right and 10% too lenient; for Queensland, 37% too strict, 53% about right and 7% too lenient.
• The balance of concern is nonetheless moving away from “moving too quickly to relax restrictions”, down 20 points since mid-July to 56%, to “moving too slowly to relax restrictions and harming economy, jobs and mental wellbeing”, up 19 points to 39%.
Today also brings the fortnightly Essential Research poll, as related by The Guardian with the full report to follow later today:
• Respondents were in favour of both Scott Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 (a 61% approval rating, up two on a fortnight ago) and Queensland state border closures he wants lifted (66% support, including 70% among Queensland respondents). Forty-seven per cent of Victorian respondents approved of the state government’s COVID-19 management, unchanged from a fortnight ago, while the rating for the New South Wales government was up seven to 67%.
• Thirty-three per cent of respondents felt tax cuts for high income earners should be brought forward from 2022, as the government has signalled it will do, while 38% believe they should be scrapped and 29% believe the government should stick to the original timetable. Twenty-one per cent believe they would be an effective economic stimulus, compared with 41% for moderately effective and 38% for not effective.
• Asked which technology they preferred for future energy generation, 70% favoured renewables and 15% gas and coal.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1081.
UPDATE: Full Essential Research poll here.
I thought Aly’s point was a good one, and well made.
Aly’s argument is that change brought about via legislation enacted by parliaments has different political and cultural repercussions to change brought about through partisan or activist judiciaries, and on that point I quite agree with him, and I think his examples to this effect are good ones.
That there are underlying problems with our democracies and increasingly bad behaviour by those on the right aided and abetted by malicious state and non-state actors does not detract from that analysis of legislative vs judicial ‘reform’ paths.
It was all based on bull shit population growth predictions anyway.
……….. a confession that the economic forecasts in Josh Frydenberg’s 2019 Budget were the result of political pressure to spin the most favourable growth story for that election budget – or that Treasury is simply incompetent.
As we reported at the time, last year’s budget and its rosy growth forecasts out to end-of-debt-land were based upon population assumptions that were nonsense.
The fertility rate in particular was absurd – either pointing to the aforementioned incompetence or political types leaning on officials to massage what was fed into Treasury’s computer modelling to get the Commodore 64 to spit out numbers the Treasurer would like to parade around the looming election.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/news-federal-budget/2020/09/23/fertility-rates-2019-budget-bungle/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020200923
Pascoe is a rare breed.
SK
On your point about US State election polls, it was interesting to note that 538 seem to think aggregating the US State polls gives a more reliable prediction of US POTUS election outcomes than national polls.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/
So mundo is now talking to himself?
Indeed Maude, my appreciation of the Rudd reforms (as implemented by Gillard and partially destroyed by Abbott) has grown significantly during the pandemic
Which raises the question of why Brumby and whoever his health minister was rejected some of them. Zoomster was in the middle of it and doesn’t know the answer. In NSW the rumour was that Brumby wanted to avoid the heat of dismissing the little local boards.
None of the state leaders has agreed with you that the commonwealth has a significant public health capacity
C@t, neat little (emphasis on little) Q&A summary of that Atlantic article, with this the most pertinent answer:
The most significant risk is that Trump will ask Republican allies in battleground states to appoint Trump electors regardless of the outcome. We’re accustomed to choosing electors by popular vote, but the Supreme Court has said a state legislature may take back that power from the people and name any electors it likes.
According to a legal adviser to Trump and three top Republican leaders in Pennsylvania, they are already discussing contingency plans to set aside the voting results—by claiming the vote count is rigged. Republicans control the House and Senate in all six of the most closely contested swing states.
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2020/09/2020-election-trump-barton-gellman/616457/
zoomster @ #1303 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 10:36 am
You’ve been around a while Zoomy, Mundo has had whole conversations with himself in the past…..this is not new. Just revived.
Jackol @ #1300 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 10:31 am
‘Different’ doesn’t mean or imply ‘better’, nor can all change brought via the judiciary be attributed to partisan/activist intent. Was the recent ruling that employers can’t pocket JobKeeper monies “judicial activism”, for instance?
There’s good value in having a strong Constitution that places limits on what can and can’t be legislated, and a judiciary willing to enforce those limits against the government of the day.
ItzaDream @ #1302 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 8:35 am
There really needs to be some independent body that sets the assumptions made in economic modelling by Government.
They have just become part of the marketing exercise, rather than provide an insight into the effects of the policy.
“Agents of Chaos” now up on HBO if you can access it.
https://youtu.be/M-OA7H8DoJM
ItzaDream @ #1305 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 10:39 am
Can understand why Trump would try that approach. But why the hell are rank-and-file Republicans so keenly willing to bend over backwards to help that scumbag?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1309 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 10:47 am
‘Independent body’ is becoming increasingly oxymoronic.
That is on my list to read.
There was an article they wrote about how they come up with state poll aggregates that I need to reread first in the slim hope I understand it the second time.
But yes. A skim of the article matches kinda what I have been posting. I will often post about a congressional district poll and compare it to the 2018 blue wave and the 2016 election. I find these very consistently show a strong swing away from Trump that matches fairly closely with the general national or state swing.
Also, I often complain that some 538 state forecasts get stale because of the lack of quality state polls. I assumed they use national polling and a bunch of assumptions to fill in the gaps there when that happens. Hence the radical shift in recent forecasts for Ohio.
ItzaDream @ #1312 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 8:50 am
We already have the Parliamentary Budget Office, why couldn’t they do it?
Jackol:
Friday, September 25, 2020 at 10:31 am
That’s the crux of his argument, and it’s a persuasive one and one that Ginsburg would agree with. With abortion, for instance, she said:
[‘Roe v. Wade “invited no dialogue with legislators,”…”Instead, it seemed entirely to remove the ball from the legislators’ court.”
https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2020/09/24/ruth-bader-ginsburg-abortion-roe-v-wade-catholic
On Josh and his Fake Maths budget, there is a further implication of this episode:
“……….. a confession that the economic forecasts in Josh Frydenberg’s 2019 Budget were the result of political pressure to spin the most favourable growth story for that election budget – or that Treasury is simply incompetent.”
If Josh and his sock puppet Liberal leaning Treasury Secretary will do that once when there was a risk of recession, what will they do with forecasts now we are in a deep recession? Can markets believe a word they say?
a r @ #1311 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 10:49 am
Which begs the question – who are the rank and file, as the middle and upper middle shift to the Dems and the disenfranchised and disenchanted workers shift to the right, with social and religious conservatives. But regardless, the reference is to the Enablers on the Death Train with him isn’t it, well left the station.
Just the one locally acquired case in NSW, the one we’d already been told about yesterday.
Strange case, a man in his 50’s in supported home care, yet they don’t know the source of transmission. That makes it either less alarming or more alarming. Or equally alarming I guess.
Still a good result overall though.
Socrates
Treasury forecasts 😆 How many years in a row is it now they have forecast wage growth will go up bigly in the next 12-18 months ? A hardy annual ,meanwhile we peasants are left doing ‘Con the Fruiterer’ and waiting waiting waiting.
Interesting case.
His two housemates and carers are negative. He has limited social contact and the only warning is For half an hour in a Woolworths 1 week ago.
You would almost guess a false positive BUT he is in ICU. Investigations continue
poroti
Interestingly on Treasury forecasts, the problem is now so bad that we have to allow for it in forecasting growth when assessing the economics of transport projects for IA funding applications. Back in the 2000s there used to be various standard assumptions about growth in truck volumes and value of time (a proxy for wages) that worked well for a decade. But in the last five years they have been hopeless. If you look up official guidance out of NSW DfT for growth in aggregate demand and value of time, they have (correctly) been scaled back.
So nobody who has been looking at the evidence and having to bet money on the outcomes believes Treasury any more.
They are loyal to themselves. Rats on a ship. When they see it sinking…..
Although, this is where Trump’s cleverness is. He is able to con even rats to keep to the sail. He did it with the banks and equity peeps when his empire was completely broken.
Socrates
They have been so wRONg for so long you really have to wonder ‘why is it so? ‘ . The answer is unlikely to reflect well on them. For a start it makes their supposed expertise look not so ‘expert’.
OC
“None of the state leaders has agreed with you that the commonwealth has a significant public health capacity”
Hmm… I didn’t say they do, despite having a large Department of Health and high profile minister (Greg Hunt).
No, I repeat, it’s not as simple as just a health department issue.
But they do impose controls.
This is from https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/help-support/meeting-our-requirements/health
And they are responsible for health decision making
They may outsource the role of MOC, but they can’t outsource the responsibilities.
It continues…
Dutton made a big deal about not having the staff to do such assessments when they let in the Ruby Princess passengers, but the Commonwealth still had the responsibility. Their own website says so.
What to do with people who “threaten public health”? Well, lots of options, up to, and including isolation (ie quarantine). And that’s still a commonwealth responsibility.
They may outsource it to the states, like they do with so much else, but the responsibility remains with the Commonwealth.
Ultimately the states pick up the tasks. I mean, what else are they going to do? The commonwealth just lands it on them anyway.
This govt is beyond corrupt
Rafael Epstein Retweeted
Andrew Leigh
@ALeighMP
·
1h
In March, billionaire Solomon Lew tearfully called Frydenberg to ask the govt to introduce JobKeeper https://afr.com/politics/federal/tearful-lew-spoke-to-treasurer-after-standing-down-12-000-20200331-p54fq6…. His firm got around $45m in JobKeeper. It just announced huge profits & $57m dividend. Lew will personally get over $20m. https://afr.com/companies/retail/solomon-lew-s-premier-investments-in-profit-bonanza-20200924-p55yvx… #auspo
Poroti
That graph doesn’t reflect well on Hockey Joe or Scomo either does it? Sadly the cadre of expert economists recruited and trained in Treasury since Keating’s day has now largely been dispersed or retired. A huge loss of expertise for the nation. They were once genuinely good.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
7,185,471
Deaths:
207,538
– 45,355 new cases and 942 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Politic@l Spinner.
@LesStonehouse
· 3h
Big story today in the news….the gov is going to make it much easier to get a home loan so in the future you not only lose your home but you will still have a big loan to pay off for years … Any chance we could remove this government sooner than the next election? #auspol
poroti @ #1324 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 11:30 am
Boy, a real opposition could sure make mincemeat out of the government with a graph like that! 🙂
Somehow I get the feeling that if you added $30 billion to Ol’ Ten fingers and Toes almost off the cuff casual announcement of the deficit figure you would be closer to the truth.
Player One @ #1329 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 11:53 am
makes mundo want to weep.
Victoria @ #1325 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 11:46 am
Mundo looks forward to Albo’s press conference today calling out this rampant corruption. Gonna turn the telly on now so I don’t miss it. Back in a sec…..
Random, but in this article, I found a statement from a senior cycling official that is so densely qualified that I had to splash cold peppermint tea into my eyes after reading it.
The context is the fact that in the hard-fought formation of a new one-stop-shop national cycling body (called AusCycling), a couple of state organisations refused to join. One of these is Cycling NSW, whose new chair, Matt Bazzano, had this to say about the prospect of future membership:
“we want to put on record, in principle, our openness to seek options to open discussions to negotiate moving forwards”.
I’m tempted to print this on 100 gsm paper, frame it and hang it above my bed to act as a kind of nightmare catcher.
Goodness me.
France has recorded 16,000 in one day.
Of COVID that is
NSW UPDATE
Fri 25 Sep
4 new cases in NSW
three are returned travellers in hotel quarantine
The other case is locally acquired with no contact with a confirmed case identified. This case, a man in his 50s from South West Sydney, was announced yesterday and is included in today’s official numbers.
Contact tracing and investigations continue.
From the Dawn Patrol. Mr Crowe being a little coy there. To merely look like dunderheads would be a huge upgrade from what the deal raises suspicions of.
Victoria @ #1329 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 11:52 am
Is that why all the banking stocks are up?
This has just now won this year’s Archibald Prize.
BK @ #1342 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 12:32 pm
Vincent Namatjira
a r @ #1339 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 12:30 pm
‘Any chance we could remove this government sooner than the next election?’
I may never stop laughing.
Victoria it’s not just France 16,000 (the April peak was about 8,000)
UK 6000 cases today – up from just under 5000 yesterday and the numbers are accelerating up (they are at the max level of the first wave).
Spain 15,000 (March peak numbers of 9,000)
Belgium 2,000 (same levels as April)
Netherlands 2,200 (higher than March/April)
Germany 2,000 (still well below March/April but trending up slowly)
Austria back up to 1000 (same as first wave peak)
Italy trending back up toward 2000
Czech Republic 3,000 cases and going up rapidly
Victoria today is at 14. I think our Dear leader Dan might actually be doing something right – can’t figure out what it might be…
These numbers should be broadcasted loudly on all TV stations. This Covid thing is actually Super serious…
Alpha zero
Yep it is super serious. Who would have thunked it.
Victoria today is at 14. I think our Dear leader Dan might actually be doing something right – can’t figure out what it might be…
Ignoring the Murdoch media hacks and hackettes.
And Brazil 32,129
Colombia 6,555
Peru 6,235
Mexico 4,786
Chile 1,731
Argentina 13,467
Not to mention…
The Lincoln Project
@ProjectLincoln
The United States has surpassed 7,000,000 cases of coronavirus.
This continues to be the worst federal response to a national emergency in our nation’s history.
Australian music legend Max Merritt has died in a Los Angeles hospital after being diagnosed with a rare autoimmune disease.
The musician, of Max Merritt and the Meteors fame, passed away on Thursday, aged 79.
He had been battling Goodpasture Syndrome, an auto-immune disease where the body mistakenly makes antibodies that attack the lungs and kidneys.
C@T
Putting aside the media for a moment there is a problem of a lack of accountability and hopefully the Premier fixes that by simply telling us who was in charge and was making the decisions because the government is creating an issue where one shouldn’t exist.
C@tmomma @ #1341 Friday, September 25th, 2020 – 12:34 pm
And Namatjira hand in solidarity hand with Goodes.
From Sep 17, The New Daily, Joanna Mendelssohn:
“Vincent Namatjira has been a finalist several times, and has also won other major art prizes. His lush, painterly style is far removed from that of his great-grandfather Albert Namatjira, and he is also more openly political. This year his subject is a double portrait of himself with Adam Goodes, Stand Strong For Who You Are.
Goodes is shown in various guises – playing football, lifting his shirt to show he is black and proud, and with the Aboriginal flag. In any other year this would be the stand out entry and a shoo-in for the prize.”
She enthuses: “Most years, the Archibald is worth seeing as an amusing exercise in social history. This year it is worth viewing for the art.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/arts/2020/09/17/archibald-prize-2020-finalists/
You need to see this stuff in the flesh. And you need to book – admittance numbers are COVID limited.