Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Primary vote movement from Newspoll in favour of the Coalition and against Labor, as the government sneaks back into the lead on the two-party headline.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll finds the Coalition sneaking back into a two-party lead of 51-49, after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The primary votes are Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 34% (down two), Greens 12% (up one) and One Nation 3% (steady). Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are little changed, up one on approval to 65% and down one on disapproval to 31%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively down four to 39% and down one to 40%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 58-29 to 59-27.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a larger-than-usual sample of 2068, which suggests we will be seeing state breakdowns in the coming days showing leadership and COVID-19 performance ratings for the state governments and Premiers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

520 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 9 of 11
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  1. WeWantPaul @ #396 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:22 pm

    ajm @ #392 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    The Lincoln Project people are economically right wing but not particularly so on social policy so I don’t think the Supreme Court judge thing will loom all that large for them.

    They want desperately to preserve the status quo. Trump threatens them and the white supremacist movement they’ve led for 40 years.

    Stop mouthing off here and actually go listen to the conversation between Sam Seder and Stuart Stevens to find out the truth, because Sam Seder actually, forcefully, challenges him on just that subject.

  2. WeWantPaul @ #396 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:22 pm

    ajm @ #392 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    The Lincoln Project people are economically right wing but not particularly so on social policy so I don’t think the Supreme Court judge thing will loom all that large for them.

    They want desperately to preserve the status quo. Trump threatens them and the white supremacist movement they’ve led for 40 years.

    I think they’ve realised the Republican project has gone dangerously off the rails and needs to be wound back to operate within a more normal political environment. Otherwise, there will be considerable social unrest, which will not be in the interest of big money. I think white supremacy was always a means for them rather than an end and they’ve now realised they have to recalibrate their strategies.

  3. People like Jordie are challenging the paradigm.

    To people like my 21 year old grandson and his mates, Friendly Jordie IS the paradigm.

    They don’t listen to radio. They don’t buy or read newspapers. They don’t watch any TV news or current affairs.

    It all comes through their phones. If they subscribe to FJ, then each new video he makes pops up automatically. They can pause it. Re-watch it. Link it.

    Meanwhile, at the TV station, someone’s writing a news script. Make-up is doing hair and concealing wrinkles. $100,0000 cameras are warming up. Reporters, camera crews and, after them, directors, producers, writers, sub-editors, schedulers, executives, boom operators, lighting technicians, lawyers and marketing people are vetting everything to make sure friendly politicians or commercial advertisers won’t be disadvantaged or offended.

    When it goes to air, the bulletin is timed to the tenth of a second, the “spontaneous” gags and throws between anchors all written out and repeated word-for-word. The expensive suits, jewelry, studio time and space are all accounted for and budgeted.

    They are a million miles behind Jordan Shanks in almost every conceivable way.

  4. Yes it was one of the first things McConnell did after Trump was elected, abolishing the filibuster.

    I make it one more Republican Senator who needs to come onboard.

  5. the eu commission has upgraded its 2030 emissions reduction target from the current 40% cut (baseline 1990) to 55%. the detailed proposal, involving significant movement in the targets, with legislation to come, has strong support in berlin & paris and support from other member states. the european parliament was already on board. australia will face carbon border taxes on all its exports to the eu. -a.v.
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1599

  6. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:26 pm

    Labor will, always come down on the side of jobs for working families.

    As much as people tried there is no longer much work in candle making, wagon wheels are also a slow moving item.

  7. frednk @ #408 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:26 pm

    Labor will, always come down on the side of jobs for working families.

    As mush as people tried there is no longer much work in candle making, wagon wheels are also a slow moving item.

    So, you’re out of work again.

    Sad, but Labor will give you a hand up!

  8. Not saying that I agree with the UWU (seriously, who decided that was a good name?) sending out flyers, but it’s kinda a bit rich for the Greens to be complaining about Labor and some unions campaigning against them when they happily do the same thing to them. Just because they think they’re doing it for “moral” (read: self-serving) reasons doesn’t make it less hypocritical.

  9. C@tmomma @ #402 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:31 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #396 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:22 pm

    ajm @ #392 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    The Lincoln Project people are economically right wing but not particularly so on social policy so I don’t think the Supreme Court judge thing will loom all that large for them.

    They want desperately to preserve the status quo. Trump threatens them and the white supremacist movement they’ve led for 40 years.

    Stop mouthing off here and actually go listen to the conversation between Sam Seder and Stuart Stevens to find out the truth, because Sam Seder actually, forcefully, challenges him on just that subject.

    thanks for your advice, the kind of considerate intelligent human response i’d expect from you and you know, sociopaths;

    but still I might listen to listen to the Sam Seder, Stuart Stevens thing you refer to if you want to provide a link, you might want to listen to all of Rick Wilson’s stuff appearances on “With Friends Like These”. .

    Although you need to remember these are largely ad and campaign guys who’ve worked for the republicans consistently since Reagan. You know the same period of time the Republicans have been using race to win elections. odd coincidence perhaps, but also perhaps you know you might not want to believe everything an Republican ad / campaign persons says, you know the forty years of them lying and using race to scare people into stupid positions is obviously still pretty effective with weak minds.

  10. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:36 pm
    frednk @ #408 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:26 pm

    Labor will, always come down on the side of jobs for working families.

    As mush as people tried there is no longer much work in candle making, wagon wheels are also a slow moving item.
    So, you’re out of work again.

    Sad, but Labor will give you a hand up!
    _________________________________________
    Maybe you could find him work “cleaning up” a Somyurek controlled branch ? Helping members of ethnic communities realise their passion for joining their local FEA post covid lockdown?

  11. GG
    I work in the modern economy. I do not work in coal, did 30 years ago. As much as the Greens and Liberals try and pretend otherwise, renewables are mainstream.

  12. frednk says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:41 pm
    Lars Von Trier
    And which religious group do you belong to?
    __________________________
    Since your curious – I declared as Jedi in the last census.

  13. Mavis says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:25 pm
    I thought that the filibuster could delay a Trump appointment to the SCOTUS until I saw this:
    [‘In April 2017, Senate Republicans led by McConnell eliminated the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations in order to end debate on the nomination of Neil Gorsuch.’]
    The Dems need four Republican senators to turn on Trump; I very much doubt this will occur. The only way out is for Biden is to increase the number of associate justices once ensconced.

    there’s another option.

    if dems control both house & senate they can impeach whoever the republicans appoint: prosecution in the dem controlled house, judgement in the dem controlled senate, followed by removal from office, constitutionally.

    impeachment is not legal, it is political, no laws need to have been broken.

    there is no downside. if demographics are indeed on the dems side, as people say, then the republicans will never again control both house & senate and therefore will never again be in a position to impeach & convict anyone in retaliation. -a.v.

  14. frednk @ #413 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:39 pm

    GG
    I work in the modern economy. I do not work in coal, did 30 years ago. As much as the Greens and Liberals try and pretend otherwise, renewables are mainstream.

    It is just so obvious and so clear even a labor faction power broker owned by the coal industry should be able to see it, it is not only mainstream it is an obvious key a the new economy, an economy Australia can win in, like no other economy we’ve ever known.

    Keating I’m sure claimed he told a union organizer who demanded to know what to tell his members who lose their jobs because of his economic reforms that they should be asked ‘how do you like your new job’. That Labor and so many of its supporters are so ignorant of our own history, so very terrified and completely lacking in courage and integrity that they cannot embrace fully and passionately an Australian Green New Deal in the biggest recession we’ve ever known during the climate crisis, it is well disappointing.

  15. It looks like there might be more to this than the Liberals trying to embarrass a labor staffer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/chinese-authorities-threatened-to-detain-abc-journalists-14-year-old-daughter

    Gee, and to think I was labelled as a “racist” – laughably by nath, among others – for daring to suggest that there was a Chinese government agenda here, in and against Australia, involving political infiltration, standover tactics, economic intimidation, local and foreign media manipulation and similar shadowy tactics.

  16. See new Tweets
    Conversation
    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    Ooooh.

    So people have been checking land titles I see.
    Quote Tweet

    friendlyjordies
    @friendlyjordies
    · 7h
    The @NSWNationals will cease to exist after the next election. Too much stuff is about to come out.
    8:14 PM · Sep 21, 2020·Twitter Web App


  17. Bonza says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:11 pm

    frednk
    Will the Lincoln Project prefer a Biden win or another conservative Supreme court judge?

    Do you think they are mutually exclusive?
    As the court can be expanded if the Democrats win the house and senate I know what my choice would be, but I am not so sure it maters.

  18. WWP,

    He gets people interested in environmental and workplace issues who otherwise wouldn’t be. The hysterical response to him is only doing him favours and some progressives hate him because he doesn’t follow the approved script that they’d like.

  19. Lars Von Trier @ #412 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:39 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:36 pm
    frednk @ #408 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 8:26 pm

    Labor will, always come down on the side of jobs for working families.

    As mush as people tried there is no longer much work in candle making, wagon wheels are also a slow moving item.
    So, you’re out of work again.

    Sad, but Labor will give you a hand up!
    _________________________________________
    Maybe you could find him work “cleaning up” a Somyurek controlled branch ? Helping members of ethnic communities realise their passion for joining their local FEA post covid lockdown?

    Which snake skin are you wearing tonight?

    The nath memorial?

    The flair of hair signifying you don’t have anthing to say?

    Paris awaits your inspiration.


  20. Bushfire Bill says:

    Gee, and to think I was labelled as a “racist” – laughably by nath, among others

    Given time, I’m sure you will get over it.

  21. Bugler @ #423 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:49 pm

    WWP,

    He gets people interested in environmental and workplace issues who otherwise wouldn’t be. The hysterical response to him is only doing him favours and some progressives hate him because he doesn’t follow the approved script that they’d like.

    We are talking FJs still and yeah, his style, brand and business makes many caught up in the old ways of thinking and doing uncomfortable, like they are out of touch. Because they are.

  22. WWP
    I think a Biden win is going to change the whole dynamics. You can’t continue this conjob with America spending 2 trillion on renewables and Europe going for 55%.

    I’d be willing to bet carbon tariffs are coming. How can you ignore that market opportunity?

  23. frednk @ #429 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:56 pm

    WWP
    I think a Biden win is going to change the whole dynamics. You can’t continue this conjob with America spending 2 trillion on renewables and Europe going for 55%.

    I’d be willing to bet carbon tariffs are coming. How can you ignore that market opportunity?

    I agree if the US and Europe align, or even China and Europe without the US, there is going to be very heavy taxes, tariffs / penalties for countries who aren’t playing.

    Our stupidly slow and inept adoption is going to be punished. Our gas is going to be stranded. Our coal is already dead, and anyone who can’t see it shouldn’t be allowed out of small padded rooms.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #420 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:47 pm

    Gee, and to think I was labelled as a “racist” – laughably by nath, among others – for daring to suggest that there was a Chinese government agenda here, in and against Australia, involving political infiltration, standover tactics, economic intimidation, local and foreign media manipulation and similar shadowy tactics.

    That was not the reason you were called a racist.

  25. Frednk,

    Given time, I’m sure you will get over it.

    Wait until someone, an obvious troll, says something untrue and hateful about you, and then see how you feel about “getting over it.”

  26. Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 9:01 pm
    Frednk,

    Given time, I’m sure you will get over it.
    Wait until someone says something untrue and hateful about you, and then see how you feel about “getting over it.”
    ________________________
    Your an amusing parody of white male privilege.

  27. Lars Von Trier @ #433 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 9:03 pm

    Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, September 21, 2020 at 9:01 pm
    Frednk,

    Given time, I’m sure you will get over it.
    Wait until someone says something untrue and hateful about you, and then see how you feel about “getting over it.”
    ________________________
    Your an amusing parody of white male privilege.

    Horseshit is your name!

  28. P1: nobody – with the possible exception of the pathetic and disgraced Mavis – likes you, or thinks you have anything to contribute except moaning about not getting the dole and trolling others.

    And that’s OFFICIAL, finally.

  29. We are pretty much all fundamentally inclined to ‘other’; the best advice I ever got was that you should always treat being called out on being racist as a learning moment / opportunity. I was definitely on the wrong side of Goodes booing thing at first. But even old dogs can learn to be less racist over time.

  30. What the

    Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    This is outrageous.
    @ANAO_Australia
    ⁩ finds before the last election, when Scott Morrison was Treasurer, the Liberal Government paid a Liberal donor $30m for land that is worth as little as $920,000. https://anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/purchase-the-leppington-triangle-land-the-future-development-western-sydney-airport
    6:45 PM · Sep 21, 2020·Twitter for iPad
    407
    Retweets
    53
    Quote Tweets
    613
    Likes
    Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    ·
    2h
    Replying to
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    According to
    @ANAO_Australia
    the purchase “inflated the value of the land, which in turn led to the Australian Government paying more than was proper in the circumstances” and “was inconsistent with effective and ethical stewardship of public resources”.
    Mark Dreyfus
    @markdreyfusQCMP
    ·
    2h
    This graph shows how much the land was worth, and how much Commonwealth taxpayers paid for it.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/markdreyfusQCMP/status/1307965191284432896

  31. As reported in the new daily

    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    $30m land valuation was based on the opinion of only one valuer

    ANAO said there was $26.7m difference between “the purchase price and the ‘fair value’,” and the difference between purchase price and later valuation was “significant and unusual” #auspol
    Taxpayers pay ten times market value for Western Sydney Airport land
    Federal officials have been slammed for providing “inadequate and unreliable” advice that saw taxpayers buy land for ten times what it was worth.
    thenewdaily.com.au
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/09/21/western-sydney-airport-land-anao/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

  32. WeWantPaul @ #411 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:38 pm

    C@tmomma @ #402 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:31 pm

    WeWantPaul @ #396 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 8:22 pm

    ajm @ #392 Monday, September 21st, 2020 – 6:19 pm

    The Lincoln Project people are economically right wing but not particularly so on social policy so I don’t think the Supreme Court judge thing will loom all that large for them.

    They want desperately to preserve the status quo. Trump threatens them and the white supremacist movement they’ve led for 40 years.

    Stop mouthing off here and actually go listen to the conversation between Sam Seder and Stuart Stevens to find out the truth, because Sam Seder actually, forcefully, challenges him on just that subject.

    thanks for your advice, the kind of considerate intelligent human response i’d expect from you and you know, sociopaths;

    but still I might listen to listen to the Sam Seder, Stuart Stevens thing you refer to if you want to provide a link, you might want to listen to all of Rick Wilson’s stuff appearances on “With Friends Like These”. .

    Although you need to remember these are largely ad and campaign guys who’ve worked for the republicans consistently since Reagan. You know the same period of time the Republicans have been using race to win elections. odd coincidence perhaps, but also perhaps you know you might not want to believe everything an Republican ad / campaign persons says, you know the forty years of them lying and using race to scare people into stupid positions is obviously still pretty effective with weak minds.

    My god, you can be so ignorant, and lol to the sociopath attempted slur. Such a gentleman! Not.

    Try having a look at frednk’s post at 7.58pm for the link to the conversation which you demand. You don’t even need to bother yourself going outside the blog.

    Or you can keep bloviating like you know all the answers, like know-alls with an inflated sense of their opinions do. I can guess which course you’ll take.

  33. And in the Oz

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Catherine King MP
    @CatherineKingMP
    The Deputy PM needs to explain this one.

    Why did the Government pay $30m for a piece of land they themselves valued at $3m?

    Per hectare, they paid 22 times as much as the NSW Gov paid for neighbouring land.

    And the seller was a Liberal donor…
    Government paid 10 times more than airport land value
    The federal government spent nearly 30m purchasing a small parcel of land for the Western Sydney Airport despite it being valued at a 10th of the price, in an acquisition process that was unethical…
    theaustralian.com.au
    5:49 PM · Sep 21, 2020·Twitter fo

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/government-paid-10-times-more-than-airport-land-value/news-story/a0b8b9f68519c0e3787013bdf8cfc825?__twitter_impression=true

  34. The Lincoln Project people are economically right wing but not particularly so on social policy so I don’t think the Supreme Court judge thing will loom all that large for them.

    A conservative-dominated Supreme Court doesn’t just threaten abortion and LGBT+ rights. There are a lot of cases related to social programs and other government spending that conservative judges also stand in the way of. Not to mention a lot of cases involving corporate power or labour rights. So a “fiscal conservative” has reasons to want a right wing majority on the court as well.

    The Lincoln Project’s position on this is a bit more nuanced. They oppose any appointment before the election and only the winner of the election should have the right to nominate after that (so, if Biden wins, no nominee should be considered before Jan 20 and if Trump wins, it’s a moot point.)

    The motivation behind it is that the Democrats have officially signalled this is their Rubicon and, should a Justice be appointed before the election or between the election and inauguration in the case of Biden winning, then they are going to pack the courts through whatever means. This isn’t a hypothetical – they have stated this is the ultimatum. The Lincoln Project do not want this, as it goes against their conservative principles to go down this road. They’re comfortable with Biden nominating the new Justice because, even if it’s another liberal on the court, the conservatives would still have a 5-4 majority, with Roberts – the judicial traditionalist – being the deciding vote.

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