First up, note the new-ish posts below on a YouGov poll for South Australia and Adrian Beaumont’s latest on the US race.
• A federal by-election looms for the seat of the Queensland Groom, centred on Toowoomba. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Liberal-aligned LNP member John McVeigh, the member since 2016 and previously state member for Toowoomba South from 2012,. that he will retire due to his wife’s illness. With Labor having polled 18.7% of the primary vote in the seat at the 2019 election, it seems a fairly safe bet that they will be sitting this one out. To the extent that the seat has been interesting it has been as a battleground between the Liberals and the Nationals, most recently when McVeigh’s predecessor, Ian Macfarlane, had his bid to defect from the former to the latter blocked by the Liberal National Party administration in 2015. John McVeigh’s father, Tom McVeigh, held the seat for the National/Country Party from 1972 to 1988 (it was known until 1984 as Darling Downs), but it passed to the Liberal control at the by-election following his retirement.
• Roy Morgan has an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria, and while the methodology may be dubious, it delivers a rebuke to the news media orthodoxy in crediting Daniel Andrews’ Labor government with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 37%, Coalition 38.5% and Greens 12.5%. The results at the 2018 election were Labor 42.9%, Coalition 35.2% and Greens 10.7%, with Labor winning the two-party vote 57.3-42.7. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1147.
• An international poll by the Pew Research Centre finds 94% of Australians believe their country has handled the pandemic well and 6% badly, whereas 85% think the United States has handled it badly and 14% well, while the respective numbers for China are 25% and 73%. Twenty-three per cent have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right think for world affairs, down from 35% last year, equaling a previous low recorded for George W. Bush in 2008. Only 33% of Australians have a favourable view of the United States, down from 50% last year, a change similar to that for all other nations surveyed.
Peter Brent has some interesting views on the Climate Change debate.
https://insidestory.org.au/prisoners-dilemma/
”That I don’t know but it would seem that Trump won’t have time and the Dems will no doubt do everything they can to stall the nomination process.“
The new Senate will assemble in the first week of January, so Trump has three months.
“ Watch the hypocrite Repugs explain that it is now OK to nominate only 6 weeks from an election when only 4 years ago it wasnt OK 8 months from one.”
Take a read of McConnell’s press statement. Behold the chutzpah
My god the woman hasn’t even had a funeral yet and already Moscow Mitch is publicly planning her successor!
Can’t they do anything right?
https://reneweconomy.com.au/snowy-2-0-rapidly-turning-into-10-billion-white-elephant-experts-say-91248/
Romney has joined Murkowski.
So there you have it. If the Democrats don’t go to war the US Liberal Democracy is gone.
Republicans may not have the numbers to bring on a vote before the Election. But, post election might be a different matter.
BorgMcBorg
@BorgMcBorg
·
10m
Replying to
@NateSilver538
They don’t have the votes. No Collins, Romney, murkowski, even Graham, Grassley and Alexander are most likely No’s.
The number of Justices of the number of Supreme Court of the USA is determined by Congress. The number started out as 6 and has been as high as 10. It has been 9 since 1869.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court
Should the Democrats attain a Senate majority in 2020 or 2022, they should do what the Republicans would do in the same circumstances – add as many Justices as required.
Greensborough Growler @ #101 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 11:23 am
As many of us pointed out years ago, this was always very likely to be the final outcome of our greed and stupidity …
I thought the EU would be first out of the blocks. But it looks like it could well be the USA. Either way, many Australian export industries are pretty much screwed.
As the biggest exporter of the worst polluting fossil fuel, yes – Australia will lose … but the planet may well win.
Dems should want this dealt with before the election or risk this being the issue that brings the conservative base out on polling day.
Steve
That requires a landslide victory.
That is low odds roughly about as high as Trump winning in 2016.
McConnell gets to stack the court on election challenges.
Take Obama’s word on the consequences
Edit: The best case is the vacancy is unfilled.
lizzie @ #105 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 11:33 am
RenewEconomy has always hated Snowy 2.0. Now, why a site that is supported by the sale of solar panels and batteries should worry about a competing renewable (and cheaper!) energy technology … well, I just can’t fathom 🙂
Barney in Tanjung Bunga:
Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 10:05 am
[‘What’s the shortest time taken?’]
Biden’s just said that the shortest time for the Senate to approve the appointment of an associate justice to the SCOTUS is 47 days.
“ Should the Democrats attain a Senate majority in 2020 or 2022, they should do what the Republicans would do in the same circumstances – add as many Justices as required.”
That’s what I’ve advocated for a long time, but such a move is seen as controversial, even improper, in democratic circles. I think Biden has actually ruled it out. Sigh. IMO extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures and there is no healing America until the present madness of the Republicans is put to an end. If 15 Supreme Court justices are retired to uphold progressive reforms on health care, minimum wage, anti-trust laws, taxation, climate change and gun control, then it just has to considered.
Trump first hears of Ginsberg’s passing.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1307128696919203840
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
6,925,941
Deaths:
203,171
– 51,345 new cases and 958 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Maybe an authentic reaction from Trump, but “you’re telling me that for the first time” seems like a strange thing to say when you receive news like that.
Colour me skeptical.
Biden has said the right thing.
Now Democrat Senators have to back him up. Make those Republican defections count.
Spray @ #118 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 11:59 am
Me too. Mitch McConnell doesn’t put anything out in a press release without it being given the okay by Trump.
Ugh!
Far too many cynics on PB. Catherine Andrews (yes, Dan’s wife) is running a thread on twitter of random acts of kindness during the pandemic lock down which might be good therapy for them.
Here’s a sample.
“ RenewEconomy has always hated Snowy 2.0. Now, why a site that is supported by the sale of solar panels and batteries should worry about a competing renewable (and cheaper!) energy technology … well, I just can’t fathom ”
My jaw literally dropped when I just read the shit you just posted P1.
Snowy 2.0 wont pump the water up the hill by itself. The energy required to do that could come from either renewables or fossil fuels. Pumped hydro isn’t a competing technology with renewables, but a complementary one. FFS!
RenewEconomy doesn’t oppose snowy 2.0 because the concept competes with their products. It opposes it because the scheme is one great boondoggle and waste of public money. There are better storage options available – in their opinion – than this egregious white elephant. The fact that the federal Government now wants to make it work but burning gas to push water back up the hill (as opposed to renewable energy) is just a cherry on top of the dung heap.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #123 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 12:09 pm
Snowy 2.0 competes directly with battery storage.
What part of that sentence don’t you understand?
Vale Ruth Bader Ginsberg, a courageous fighter for what she believed in (we don’t say that very often these days) and a huge loss. Partisan attempts to replace her with a right leaning judge simply have to be stopped.
Some might criticise Ginsberg for not retiring back in 2013, when Obama could have nominated her replacement with a majority in House and Senate. Personally I blame the lamentably weak former Democratic US Senate leader Harry Reid for the situation. Reid was Senate Majority leader for the entire period 2007 to 2015. The Republicans consistently opposed liberal or moderate Supreme Court nominations and he consistently gave into them. He was the Neville Chamberlain of his era, only much worse.
Like Australian Labor politics, US liberalism badly needs a new generational broom swept through it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/18/reaction-ruth-bader-ginsburg-death/#link-ORQPDV5ME5ECHAQG66ACPJTUVA
Non @ #73 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 10:28 am
You’re fortunate there’s no such thing as a “faux left”, otherwise they could quite justifiably be outraged by the baseless and crass sentiments you’ve put there.
My jaw literally dropped when I just read the shit you just posted P1.
Mine doesn’t any more.
Player 1 thinks that they know more and better than the rest of us, when it is so often demonstrably not true.
a r @ #127 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 12:19 pm
Yep. How anyone on the Left or the Right can politicise RBG’s death for their own selfish ends so soon after her passing is beyond me.
Confessions @ #126 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 12:19 pm
And that list can be put in the bin with Trump after November 3.
agreed, a r
garbage
Player One
“Snowy 2.0 competes directly with battery storage. ”
“Likewise Bugatti competes directly with Toyota.” No? Silly analogy for a silly statement.
Your Snowy 2.0 statement is a nonsense because it assumes the amount of power storage we need or can build is somehow capped. It is not. The more we build, the more intermittent renewable power we can deploy. But Snowy 2.0 funds could be used to deploy ten times as much battery storage. Ergo Snowy 2.0 is a stalling tactic and distraction from real solutions. I hope you own beachfront property.
C@tmomma @ #128 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 12:21 pm
No, I am just not blinded by political partisanship. You’d expect the gibbons here to support Snowy 2.0, because it can be recharged with coal or gas power just as easily as renewables.
But no, instead they hate it because … Turnbull!
C@tmomma @ #130 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 10:23 am
Hopefully.
“ Snowy 2.0 competes directly with battery storage.
What part of that sentence don’t you understand?”
Honesty, you are a not so useful fool. Neither pumped hydro or chemical battery storage has the present capacity to ‘compete’ with each other. The notion that I – as a prospective customer for a wall battery – would actually reason, nah I’ll buy pumped hydro from snowy 2.0 instead beggars belief. The notion that a council or state government – contemplating various ‘big batteries’ would similarly reason is also just as fanciful.
The scale needed for battery storage is such that it will never ‘compete’ with large scale gravity enervate storage schemes (such as pumped hydro). The chemical battery industry knows this. They are themselves actually complementary technologies.
Joe Biden: “The people should pick the President and the President should pick the Justice for the Senate to consider. This is what the Republicans said in 2016 and it is what they should do now.”
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
Ruth Bader Ginsburg was a giant. She blazed a trail for women and girls everywhere while always, always standing up for the vulnerable and powerless. As people across the world mourn her passing, we recommit ourselves to her life’s work – a society that is fair, equal and just.
Cat
It’s times like this Biden’s decency stands out. He spent a lot of time talking about the loss to family and American people.
Thus his statement about McConnell resonates.
Even Fox News will carry it on their network.
P1. As I said, a not so useful fool:
“ No, I am just not blinded by political partisanship. You’d expect the gibbons here to support Snowy 2.0, because it can be recharged with coal or gas power just as easily as renewables.
But no, instead they hate it because … Turnbull!”
______
1. Snowy 2.0 is a energy storage system. Fossil fuels actually work by burning the energy stored in the coal or petroleum. What is the point of ‘recharging’ an energy storage system by burning the energy stored in another storage system? That’s completely inefficient and unnecessary. A lot of potential energy would be lost in that process. It makes no sense at all.
2. Forget coal as the energy used to ‘recharge’ snowy 2.0. The actual debate is between gas fired power and renewables. To use gas you have to build new gas stations. Once you commit to that there is simply no point burning that gas to push water back up the hill. It is for efficient to simply turn the new gas power station on and off as demand requires (ie. when the sun is not generating enough solar power and/or the wind is not blowing enough to generate sufficient dispatchable power to met demand). Because less energy is lost by gas power supplying the grid directly, instead of via storage system. Less CO2 is burnt in that process.
3. Snowy 2.0, indeed any energy storage system, on,ly makes sense if it is paired with renewables.
4. If Turnbull was fair dinkum he would have funded a bunch of smaller scale pumped hydro trials around the country as ‘proof of concept’. The CSIRO identified over 500 sites that were suitable for such schemes years ago.
5. Even allowing for its exorbitant cost, grandiosity and hubris, I would have still supported Turnbull’s white elephant as a proof of concept scheme. Provided it was paired to renewables to pump the water back up the hill.
Guytaur
The Democrats do not need this issue because it will open the door to Trump to campaign on winning the supreme court which is just the issue the conservative base needs to turn out. If this issue is allowed to remain open i’m calling Trump reelected.
Bad news.
Beemer
Trumpian enthusiasm over the Supreme Court is locked in.
The pandemic and social security cuts are getting seniors to vote for Biden.
To win the election not having the Republicans meddle is the best Democrat strategy.
The Fifth Circuit is less open to manipulation by both parties.
And Roberts and Garland have shown some independence.
The Democrats want a fair election. Then they win.
Have to shake my head at the Dems complaining about Mitch and a new SCOTUS member.
Everything the GOP nutters have done/are doing is a result of the Dems own stupidity in 2016. they should own it.
Guytuar
Conseratives have spent decades wanting control of the SC and now that is within their gasp.
Socrates @ #132 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 12:26 pm
Well, I think that’s probably untrue even if you use the inflated numbers that RenewEconomy does. However, I have not done that particular calculation – if you have then please post it.
Even the Climate Council (who are not fans of Snow 2.0) acknowledge that “Pumped hydro powered by renewables is the cheapest form of large-scale energy storage”. It is cheaper than batteries even with the forecast reductions in battery costs over the construction period included.
No, we sold it when the ALP lost the last election 🙁
Beemer
That’s not in dispute.
As I posted above. If they get that expect assassinations and worse.
No fair election makes for dictatorship
Guytaur
Not sure what you are on about with that last comment when all i’m pointing out is this opens the door to Trump’s reelection because conservatives want the SC.
Somehow I see The Donald, Barr and McConnell are going to go all out to get Bader’s position filled with a Trumpian sycophant before the election. Goodbye democracy and hello Emperor Donald the First?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #135 Saturday, September 19th, 2020 – 12:29 pm
Huh? Who mentioned “wall batteries”? I am talking utility scale. Clearly no-one is going to put a hydro scheme in their back garden.
Sheesh! If you are too eager to insult and ridicule to actually understand the context, let me amend my original statement for you:
Snowy 2.0 competes directly with battery storage – at utility scale.
Now, I guess your statements might make sense because of course there could not possibly be any battery suppliers that work at both utility scale and domestic scale, could there? Oh, wait …
Are we clear now?
Democrats are energised. Seeing reports of people going to McConnel’s house to protest.
I don’t like targeting politicians at home remember.
It does show the enthusiasm works both ways.