Still more affairs of state

A whole bunch of privately conducted polls from Queensland and Victoria, some more convincing than others.

No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.

In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.

On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.

There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:

The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:

Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).

This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.

• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.

• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

898 comments on “Still more affairs of state”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  1. idiot (noun: countable) – someone who can comprehend English

    Actually, without intending to point fingers at anyone, the definition applied by many, including some here, is “someone who disagrees with them”.

  2. FredNK

    That is good news. 🙂

    Truth might just get out to the regions faster. Hopefully more ridicule for Clive Palmer advertising

  3. Hi KayJay and Doyley

    Thanks.

    Yep, all’s fine; except for joining the Amazon club a year ago.

    Been consumed with American politics. Need I say more.

    Oh, and guess what! I’m going to be a granny in the new year.

    Wowsers, never thought it would happen. Been floating on air.

    Hope your families are safe and well.

  4. From a comment on the Guardian blog. I will miss it.

    This morning the final 7.45 am ABC news was broadcast. This was part of a raft of cuts that have cost 250 jobs, many of them highly skilled, vastly experienced journalists, broadcasters and technical staff. Albanese called this an appalling failure by the government to value this vital institution. It is actually far worse than that. It is a deliberate policy of degradation, and piecemeal demolition of one of the moist important bulwarks of our democracy. This government, the parties and individuals that form it, are creatures of a foul ideology created and controlled by a few big business anti democratic tyrants. This government is using the current pandemic to disguise more of it’s pernicious agenda including the destruction of the ABC, the dismantling of environmental protections, and destruction of the renewable energy industry. It is the most immoral, anti democratic, malicious, sly, irresponsible Australian government that I have seen.

  5. “An inquiry into Victoria’s horror bushfire season has warned the state’s response plan is out of date, the number of volunteer firefighters is declining and that evacuation plans for isolated communities were not up to scratch”
    ________________
    I suppose that is the liberals and media’s fault as well.

  6. Taylormade, that is obviously why they have had the inquiry over the winter for – to prepare for the summer. Preparation – sumpthing Liberals wot never do!


  7. Taylormade says:
    Friday, September 18, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    “An inquiry into Victoria’s horror bushfire season has warned the state’s response plan is out of date, the number of volunteer firefighters is declining and that evacuation plans for isolated communities were not up to scratch”
    ________________
    I suppose that is the liberals and media’s fault as well.

    Last I look they were fighting the reforms as hard as they could.

  8. “The inquiry also called for Emergency Management Victoria to develop better models to use both career and volunteer firefighters more effectively”
    ________________
    Good luck getting any new models past Peter Marshall and the UFU.

  9. “… even though Melbourne’s lockdown is now longer and more extreme than that in Wuhan, where authorities took to welding shut doors.”

    What are they doing, removing the doors and bricking over the doorway? Chris Uhlmann does write some crap.

  10. Taylormade

    Too funny! You do know the fibs together with their friends in the CFA have fought tooth and nail against any type of reforms,

  11. Taylormade says:
    Friday, September 18, 2020 at 1:26 pm

    “The inquiry also called for Emergency Management Victoria to develop better models to use both career and volunteer firefighters more effectively”
    ________________
    Good luck getting any new models past Peter Marshall and the UFU.

    And Taylormade comes back with the standard Liberal bullshit. The damage you lot are doing really is beyond unacceptable.

  12. And as I reported previously, Edward Bourke who is behind give dan the boot campaign, is the son of Mick Bourke………

    ………

    What is not disclosed is that Bourke’s father, Mick Bourke, is the former CEO of the Country Fire Authority.

    Bourke said this relationship affects his (and therefore Victoria Forward’s) stance — but in a good way.

    “I feel my father’s experience in the CFA gives me a uniquely knowledgeable position on the issue, and allows me to better advocate for CFA volunteers and the wider community,” he said.

    Bourke said the autonomy of Victoria Forward is important to him. He said his supporters appreciate that the group exists outside of the binary of the two major political parties.

    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/08/bipartisan-anti-dan-andrews-facebook-page-and-group-has-links-to-the-victorian-liberals/

  13. Frednk

    It seriously is beyond unacceptable. Fancy taylormade who gets all his garbage from the Herald Sun and Neil Mitchell, thinks he and his ilk are being well served causing trouble during a frickin pandemic.

    It is reprehensible

    Wish karma would do its thing

  14. Thanks Vic

    It’s amazing. I had to call a couple of friends who were grandparents to make sure I was reacting appropriately. They assured me they felt the same when apprised of the news of their impending grandparenthood.

    It’s so totally different to parenthood.

    Still, back to local politics. I think Dan Andrews has done an outstanding job. One of the things I do, is listen late at night to local ABC – from Sydney.

    I’ve been pretty much encouraged by the support for Dan Andrews from most callers.

    If one only listened to, or watched, Sky News, then they would be getting the same bullshit from Fox News as is constantly fed to the Yanks.

    The Murdochs have a lot to answer for.

  15. Email from Albo…begins;
    ‘Today marks seven years of Liberal Government. Seven wasted years. Seven years of neglect, of buck-passing, of people being left behind.

    I could rattle off hundreds of Coalition failures. I could tell you about the devastating personal stories I’ve heard over the last seven years. ‘

    Write the list of failures all over a bus Albo, and drive it round from now until the next election….

  16. laughtong @ #657 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 1:20 pm

    From a comment on the Guardian blog. I will miss it.

    This morning the final 7.45 am ABC news was broadcast. This was part of a raft of cuts that have cost 250 jobs, many of them highly skilled, vastly experienced journalists, broadcasters and technical staff. Albanese called this an appalling failure by the government to value this vital institution. It is actually far worse than that. It is a deliberate policy of degradation, and piecemeal demolition of one of the moist important bulwarks of our democracy. This government, the parties and individuals that form it, are creatures of a foul ideology created and controlled by a few big business anti democratic tyrants. This government is using the current pandemic to disguise more of it’s pernicious agenda including the destruction of the ABC, the dismantling of environmental protections, and destruction of the renewable energy industry. It is the most immoral, anti democratic, malicious, sly, irresponsible Australian government that I have seen.

    Is that true Laughtong? How did that go unnoticed, or have I not been paying attention?

    7:45am news is indeed one of the great institutions, and the only place to get a full hit of the Majestic Fanfare!

    Now this is something worth taking to the streets over!

  17. Kezza2

    I’m so pleased for you. My eldest is married but not planning on kids yet. Daughter is looking to buy a property with partner and not in that space either.
    Youngest daughter is no where in that space.
    So I’ll be waiting for a while me thinks!

    Anyhoo, Dan Andrews has worked tirelessly since the fires. He hasnt taken a breath.
    Sky news and Murdoch have been disgusting.

  18. Spray

    You missed it.

    Podcasting is the go to ABC direction. News on Demand. No specified time.

    This is a case I agree with the ABC. Some institutions are being disrupted. The problem is there is still a radio network needed for the ABC. Not only habitual listeners. Emergency broadcasting coverage.

    If not for that all those cuts to the ABC could be offset by going purely digital.

  19. Great result

    Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    1h
    BREAKING: a judge orders
    @USPS
    and Louis DeJoy to treat all election mail as first-class mail. All equipment must be replaced, reassembled, or reconnected to ensure that USPS can comply with delivering election mail with First Class delivery standards.
    Federal judge temporarily blocks USPS policy changes nationwide
    A federal judge issued a historic decision to temporarily block the US Postal Service and Postmaster General Louis DeJoy from changing a wide swath of USPS policies or protocols ahead of November’s…
    cnn.com

  20. Hola! kezza2, so glad you’re still going strong out there in Motown. I’m just back from the post office where I picked up my Australian union member-made mask. Very well-made and comfortable to wear, plus they have a loud and proud union support statement stencilled on the outside to give an up yours to all the entitled capitalist wankers out there.

    I, too, am grandchild-less but my kids are finding it hard to come across members of the opposite sex except on Tinder, which they kind of find a bit tacky. Not to mention that one of them is in England while his girlfriend is in America and the other one is still jobless, so zero possibilities to run across suitable females.

    Not to worry, it’ll happen eventually, like it seems to have happily happened to you. I hope everything else in your life has resolved itself since we last heard from you. 🙂

    Come back again soon!

  21. I’m liking his tweets

    Andrew P Street
    @AndrewPStreet
    ·
    3h
    I’m not alone in assuming “the strength of the gig economy” is synonymous with “the utter fuckeditude of the actual economy”, right? Pretending people are becoming Menulog drivers because they think it’s a better career path than a uni job feels evil even by Morrison standards.

  22. Hi Kezza
    Congratulations on your ‘grandparent’ news. Yes, you are certainly reacting the right way. It’s a fantastic experience – all unconditional love, no responsibility. It leaves parenting in the doldrums for sheer joy.

    Good to hear you’re coping well down there.

    We’ve been watching CNN and the stuff coming from Trump is so far away from anything we’ve ever seen before. Some of it is breathtaking – in a bad way. Today I read that his ex wife is pushing for their daughter Ivanka to be President after her father! Jeez!!

    Stay well yourself .

  23. Spray,
    I know no more about 7:45am bulletin.
    It was mooted to cut it in the latest round of cuts but had not seen a date.
    A very quick google search is not bringing up anything more specific.

    I will be one of many, I suspect, who will really miss it. My morning routine is set around it.

  24. dave @ 12.41pm

    “NSW Health advises further assessments and testing continue on the case from the Murrumbidgee Local Health District notified yesterday. NSW Health is taking a cautious approach and the individual and close contacts will remain in isolation, while further testing is undertaken.”

    This case is apparently in Wagga, where I live. It’s interesting, however, that the Murrumbidgee Local Health District webpage repeats that the number of cases in the region hasn’t changed for several days now. They may have notified NSW Health but they don’t appear to have notified the locals.

  25. Literally asleep at the wheel. FMD some people are stupid.

    Police in Canada have charged a man with speeding and dangerous driving after he was found asleep at the wheel of his self-driving car as it travelled at 150km/h down a highway in the province of Alberta.

    Announcing the charges on Thursday, the Royal Canadian Mounted police said that on 9 July they received a complaint that a Model S Tesla vehicle was speeding on the highway near the town of Ponoka.

    “The car appeared to be self-driving, traveling over 140km/h, with both front seats completely reclined and both occupants appearing to be asleep,” the RCMP said in a statement.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/canada-tesla-driver-alberta-highway-speeding

  26. @cat
    It’s a bit scary to think of a Trump dynasty. I’m hoping it all comes to an end soon.
    If not then Morrison will be even more encouraged in his Trumpish ways.
    Often wonder if some of his sychopancy to Trump is to help his mate, Houston, gain some extra benefit for the spread of Hillsong in the s US.

  27. BH,
    I wouldn’t mind a family dynasty like the Kennedys but a dynasty of the nastiest, most clueless, bunch of grubby grifters America has ever seen!?! No way!

  28. Taylormade @ #657 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    “An inquiry into Victoria’s horror bushfire season has warned the state’s response plan is out of date, the number of volunteer firefighters is declining and that evacuation plans for isolated communities were not up to scratch”
    ________________
    I suppose that is the liberals and media’s fault as well.

    If the cowboy element among the volunteers is being weeded out then that’s a good thing.

    Fiskville and Black Saturday – never forget.

  29. Spray @ #595 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 11:29 am

    Steve777 @ #589 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 11:18 am

    NSW has reported six new Covid cases, just one of which was locally acquired.

    And again, the locally acquired case was already isolating.

    If the Murrumbidgee case from yesterday turns out to be a false positive, as expected, I make that ten days in a row without community transmission.

    Time for another update from Cud Chewer to dampen my optimism! C@t?

    Are you sure you really want that!?! 😆

    Where did the case in Wagga Wagga come from?

  30. This is the summary of Queensland‘s plan:

    The Queensland Climate Transition Strategy (PDF, 2 MB) sets a vision of a zero net emissions future that supports jobs, industries, communities and our environment.

    We have made three key climate change commitments:

    Powering Queensland with 50% renewable energy by 2030.
    Doing our fair share in the global effort to arrest damaging climate change by achieving zero net emissions by 2050.
    Demonstrating our commitment to reducing carbon pollution by setting an interim emissions reductions target of at least 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.

    ___

    This is NSW‘s plan:

    The Net Zero Plan Stage 1: 2020-2030 is the foundation for NSW’s action on climate change and goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050. It outlines the NSW Government’s plan to grow the economy, create jobs and reduce emissions over the next decade.

    The plan aims to enhance the prosperity and quality of life of the people of NSW, while helping the state to deliver a 35% cut in emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The plan will support a range of initiatives targeting electricity and energy efficiency, electric vehicles, hydrogen, primary industries, coal innovation, organic waste and carbon financing.

    ___

    Call me a cynic, but NSW’s plan appears for all the world to be a marketing brochure. Whereas Queensland has a solid commitment to 50% renewables by 2030.

    NSW is also the most corrupt state government ever – one for property developers, by property developers and of property developers. Koala Killer is aptly named because she, her predecessors and all of her cabinet – including Keane – are the legislators of the the worst environmental protection walk backs in history and are the enablers of the the likes of Bruz and all the other pirates in the National Party.

  31. laughtong @ #680 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 2:14 pm

    Spray,
    I know no more about 7:45am bulletin.
    It was mooted to cut it in the latest round of cuts but had not seen a date.
    A very quick google search is not bringing up anything more specific.

    I will be one of many, I suspect, who will really miss it. My morning routine is set around it.

    A few years ago I would have said the same. Now, ABC news and current affairs is more like a “Working Dog” parody of a public broadcaster. I would have bet money it couldn’t get any worse than it was under Michelle Guthrie, but Ita Buttrose seems to have managed it 🙁

  32. Andrew Earlwood

    A point Labor needs to get out for the Federal Election.

    Not all the timing is about the ACT or Queensland election. Just most of it.

    My point is use the marketing of the LNP when you can to Labor’s benefit. Use it to wedge the LNP.

    Climate. Refugees and Gay Marriage combined destroyed Tony Abbott’s Australian political career. That’s a wedge Labor can use.

  33. The other thing to note about Queensland’s plan is that Queensland started this whole carbon reduction strategy a long way back in the straight when com-are to the other big eastern states: it had the largest collection of coal fired power stations of any, without recourse to the snowy mountain hydro scheme for example. It was also a late responder to taking up large scale solar and wind farms. For it to now be in a position to achieve 50% renewables by 2030 is pretty astonishing.

  34. poroti @ #584 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    So how is it going in Bojo’s tory wonderland where antipodean Mad Monks roam free ?
    .
    Covid-19 news: New cases in England up 167% since end of August

    Steep rise in new coronavirus cases in England despite testing shortage

    The weekly number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in England has risen sharply, as the country is experiencing testing shortages. Between 3 and 9 September, 18,371 people were diagnosed with covid-19, which is “a substantial increase of 167 per cent compared to the end of August

    Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-new-cases-in-england-up-167-since-end-of-august/#ixzz6YLrKz3Ab

    I wonder if the Murdoch media in the UK will round on Boris Johnson now? Then keep it up every day with endless numbers of inane questions meant to bait him into snapping at them the way they have been trying to do now for months to Victorian Premier Dan Andrews?

    Of course they won’t.

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