Still more affairs of state

A whole bunch of privately conducted polls from Queensland and Victoria, some more convincing than others.

No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.

In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.

On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.

There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:

• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:

Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).

This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.

• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.

• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

898 comments on “Still more affairs of state”

Comments Page 13 of 18
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  1. guytaur @ #592 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 9:28 am

    Doyley

    thanks for correcting my typo.

    ===================

    It’s very interesting how many are willing to jump in with gloating over a typo.

    Typo??????

    Labor could solve its environment problem easily. Have the same emissions target as every state.

    Zero by 2030.

    If it’s a typo then by your first sentence Labor has no environment problem to solve, so what’s your point?

  2. I think the ALP should sit out of the Groom by-election. It is not worth them even going in with a bare-bones campaign which would cost about $15-20K. Just let someone stand as a local independent and watch as the LNP and One Nation slug at each other.

    Looks like McVeigh has quit for legit reasons too, so there won’t be as much backlash as sometimes happens.

  4. guytaur,

    I was not interested in showing you up about a typo.

    From the way you framed your post it seemed to me that you were not actually aware that labor already has a policy position of zero net emissions by 2050 that is in line with a growing number of stakeholders.

    If that is the case then it is a big dent in your credibility to continue to have a go at labor over targets if you do not even know what the labor target is.

  5. Conor Duffy
    @conorduffynews
    ·
    30m
    Exclusive: Independent SA Senator Rex Patrick has told me there’s no way he’ll vote for the government’s university reforms. That narrows the path through the upper house to his former colleague Centre Alliance’s

  7. So after spending billions of dollars the states almost have it under control. Morrison plan now is to dump international travelers on the streets because the states have not done enough to cover the federal border management incompetence.

  8. guytaur,

    I have pretty much said all I have to say on this. Nothing more to add.

    Not interested in wasting any more time burrowing down any pedantic rabbit holes.

  9. guytaur @ #596 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 11:31 am

    This is where the 2030 typo occurred.
    https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/climate-change/net-zero-plan

    Of course NSW is not all states. Just a Liberal one.

    Edit: I will change typo to mistake.

    NSW still has a net zero by 2050

    The Net Zero Plan Stage 1: 2020-2030 is the foundation for NSW’s action on climate change and goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050. It outlines the NSW Government’s plan to grow the economy, create jobs and reduce emissions over the next decade.

  10. Doyley

    Would that be because Liberal NSW is doing better than Labor Queenslander?

    That’s even encumbered with Koala Killer Nationals.

  11. Not interested in wasting any more time burrowing down any pedantic rabbit holes.

    You don’t need to burrow if there’s already a hole. 😉

  12. Just read this guardian article again; are they spending the fire relief funding again? They spent it yesterday on the gas announcement so that would make it three times. Where if anywhere is it going to land.


    The government says it will provide $2bn over the next six months to cover an extension of health services, including in private and public hospitals, as well as additional investments in personal protective equipment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/18/flight-caps-fight-looms-at-national-cabinet-as-morrison-pledges-pandemic-health-funding

  15. VP

    NSW is willing to detail it. Laying out what it’s doing by 2030.

    If Labor has done so I have not seen it reported and it’s a good argument for Labor to make.

    Yes I am going on media reports because that’s what voters less engaged than I are going on.

  18. Bianca Hall
    @_Biancah
    ·
    21m
    It’s true, my door was welded shut only yesterday
    Quote Tweet

    Chris Uhlmann
    @CUhlmann
    · 1h
    “We live in a police state. A punitive state. When penalties get raised, no one bothers to ask why anymore, even though Melbourne’s lockdown is now longer and more extreme than that in Wuhan, where authorities took to welding shut doors.” https://bit.ly/2EaBGJS

  19. guytaur @ #615 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 9:48 am

    Barney

    With you if a point looks like Labor is not looking great up it’s always a comprehension fail.

    Opening sentence from your “supporting” link.

    The Net Zero Plan Stage 1: 2020-2030 is the foundation for NSW’s action on climate change and goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

    What part didn’t you comprehend?

    https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/climate-change/net-zero-plan

  27. Someone needs to tell Uhlmann that in Wuhan they had police check points throughout the city and were sealing people inside their homes.

  28. Most definitely!

    Broggers
    @ChrisBrogden1
    ·
    56m
    One thing is for sure, we won’t forget how appallingly the main stream media treated us here in Melbourne when we were trying to stay safe.

  30. Agree that Labor should sit Groom out. With a 20% margin and the Federal Government doing well in the polls there’s no chance of winning and little chance of achieving a decent swing. Anyway, Qld Labor would be putting all resources into the State Election and can do with the time and money saved.

  31. Latest news re covid Victoria

    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    1m
    The Casey family cluster of 34 is across 5 households in Hallam, Clyde, NArre Warren South and Cranbourne South. There’s been travel outside the 5km radius, and household visits..
    First case detected 4 Sept – 2 weeks ago..
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    2m
    DHHS reveals there are 90 active cases around Dandenong and Casey, many to do with workplaces, including Dande police station.
    There’s also a cluster of 34 cases across 5 households.
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    4m
    Premier: “There have been some significant positive cases.. and difficult chains of transmission in Melbourne’s outer-south-east..” (the CASEY cluster).
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    5m
    Premier says national cabinet discussed making sure every aged care setting is well equipped and prepped for dealing with

  32. Extract from guytaur’s dictionary:

    idiot (noun: countable) – someone who can comprehend English

    Usage: These idiots picked up my error.

  33. There is no reason for people not to know this.

    People are wilfully doing this and it is pissing me off.
    Perhaps we should actually be like wuhan China. Sheesh.

    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    1m
    DHHS says about 4000 people have been tested across the Casey LGA in past week… and 200 or so have gone to new pop-up clinics in the pasts couple of days.
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    2m
    An “incident management team” was set up last weekend… to find and attempt to close down the Casey family cluster..
    DHHS has been talking to community leaders and youth leaders and held forums, to explain that you cannot meet in each others’ households.

  34. Hence why there is still a curfew. People need to understand this, not get the frickin dribble from the fiberals and the pathetic media that supports them.

  35. And hence why the whole notion of contact tracing can only work if people are being truthful to start with.

    The fibs and the frickin media need to stop encouraging defiance with the rules that are there to stop the spread of covid.

  36. mavis (et al.), : i’m late to the party, but re.: the question of which if any u.s. presidents of the last 30 years didn’t start a war. for all his flaws ‘n faults, i’ll credit george h.w. bush with this:- (1) he assembled a coalition to liberate kuwait under the authority of a united nations security council resolution (no.678). that’s how its supposed to be done. (2) when they threw the iraqis out & the road to baghdad was clear, he stopped at the border, because the united nations resolution that authorised the use of armed force for the liberation of kuwait did not authorise him to invade iraq. that’s how its supposed to be done. republicans never forgave him for respecting international law & the united nations. as far as i’m concerned that was the last honorable war the americans fought. -regards, a.v.

  37. Good question

    Replying to
    @Raf_Epstein
    Any links between the Dandenong protestors from a couple of weeks ago, the 15 cases linked to Dandenong Police Station, and the current cases?

  38. [Deputy chief health officer Prof Allen Cheng] is asked whether this outbreak is linked to anti-lockdown protests in Dandenong.

    “I’m not aware of any links with the protest”, he says.


  39. Victoria says:
    Friday, September 18, 2020 at 12:25 pm

    And hence why the whole notion of contact tracing can only work if people are being truthful to start with.

    The fibs and the frickin media need to stop encouraging defiance with the rules that are there to stop the spread of covid.

    Yep it looks as if we are going to get at least another week because of these wankers. Should be a special place in hell reserved for the lot of them.

  40. NSW –

    Of the six new cases to 8pm last night:

    Five are returned overseas travellers in hotel quarantine
    One is locally acquired and linked to a known case or cluster

    One new case was a household contact of a previous case who attended Liverpool Hospital. They have been in isolation. There are 21 cases linked to Liverpool Hospital dialysis cluster.

    NSW Health advises further assessments and testing continue on the case from the Murrumbidgee Local Health District notified yesterday. NSW Health is taking a cautious approach and the individual and close contacts will remain in isolation, while further testing is undertaken.

    https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200918_00.aspx

  41. Frednk

    Its selfish magical thinking. People want to believe it is being exaggerated. They feel okay and the rules make no sense, and what is the harm.

  42. Expat
    “If true, is it feasible to just lock down the city of Casey?

    Not really, no. Casey is a big area of the SE growth corridor and it’s a major thoroughfare from the city to Gippsland etc, can’t really just try and box it in. The cluster they’re worried about is connected with a particular community and the Fountain Gate shopping centre”

    Thanks – I’m not au fait with Melbourne geography. But is sealing off a chunk of outer Melbourne any more challenging than sealing off all of Melbourne?

    I’m not advocating a lockdown of Casey. I’m just curious why the lockdown approach is now being used for a whole city but not part of a city – especially when the latter approach was adopted at the beginning of Victoria’s second wave.

  43. I dont apologise for the repetition

    But if the fiberals and the lickspittle media here in Victoria were supportive from the get go in getting the public on board, we would be in a very different position.
    They have engaged in sabotage at every step of the way. I will never forgive them for it.
    Disgraceful creatures.

  46. Hi there Vic, and the rest of the PB gang

    How are you?

    Here in Mowtown, we’re very co-operative. Masks everywhere, and not too much complaining. I think we’re sort of glad the virus is confined to Melb Metro and other (mostly) regional communities.

    Still, the people I know are very serious and very conscientious about maintaining masks and social distancing.

    Hope you and yours are well. Take care out there.

  47. Kezza2

    Long time no hear. Glad to know you are doing well!
    Around my part of woods everyone is doing the same which is really good.
    I have playground next to my place, and not one child or adult was ever seen there until Monday when they reopened. So compliance has been great around me.

  48. Vic,

    No more Rise Up Australia, but the whole Church and operations are still active.

    Pastor Danny’s Facebook page is a wall of hate.

  49. Alpha zero

    Actually now that I think of it, i saw something floating on Twitter recently from rise up Melbourne which was full of bile. Could it be the same idiot

  50. Barney

    You are an idiot for not reading and comprehending the article in the link. And for being extremely quick at no one can make mistakes rant.

    The end.

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