No media polling has emerged in the past week, but there have been a welter of reports at state level on private polling – rather too many, one might think, given the political agendas frequently attached to them.
In Victoria, where Liberals provided the Herald Sun with polling showing Labor copping a hiding in four marginal seats last week, Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has pushed back showing a far happier set of results for the Andrews government. This includes a state voting intention finding with Labor on 39.1%, the Coalition on 34.5% and the Greens on 7.0%, converting into an estimated 53.5-46.5% lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Pollster Kos Samaras offers a few qualifications: that phone polls tend to under-report both Labor and the Nationals, and that the Greens’ inner-city constituency is “difficult to survey”.
On the state government’s road map for emerging from lockdown, 58.1% agree it was motivated by “the best interests of Victorians” with 31.3% disagreeing. Conversely, only 34.1% thought Scott Morrison and the federal government were playing a constructive role, with 50.6% disagreeing, and just 18.2% thought so in relation to the state Liberals, with 57.0% disagreeing. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 2172.
There has also been a flurry of polling ahead of next month’s state election in Queensland, all of it portending bad things for Labor:
• The Australian reported on polling conducted for coal miner New Hope by Omnipoll, which was co-founded by former Newspoll head Martin O’Shannessy, has the following findings in Queensland, targeting four Labor-held seats outside Brisbane. The overall pattern was of an exodus from right-wing minor parties to the Liberal National Party, and of Labor losing a bigger share of the primary vote than they would probably be able to wear:
Ipswich: Labor 44 (-4), LNP 29 (+16), One Nation 5 (-22), Greens 12 (+3).
Keppel: Labor 34 (-9), LNP 40 (+15), One Nation 10 (-16), Greens 7 (+1).
Mackay: Labor 36 (-7), LNP 37 (+12), One Nation 7 (-16), Greens 6 (+1).
Thuringowa: Labor 33 (+1), LNP 40 (+19), One Nation 4 (-16), Greens 7 (+1), Katter’s Australian Party 7 (-9).
This tends to suggest Labor losing more support than they can wear, while the LNP soaks up a huge share of One Nation and KAP support that it had probably been getting back as preferences anyway. Labor won Ipswich by 10.9% over One Nation in 2017, and wouldn’t be troubled there on these numbers; won Keppel by 3.1% over One Nation, and would likely lose to the LNP; won Mackay by 8.3% over the LNP, and would likely hang on; and won Thuringowa over One Nation by 4.1%, and would likely lose.
• The Greens have been circulating results of three inner urban seats conducted by Lonergan Research, where the LNP’s move to preference them ahead of Labor makes them likely winners wherever they can finish second. In the party’s one existing seat of Maiwar, a strong flow of Labor preferences would likely secure victory for incumbent Michael Berkman, on 36% to LNP candidate Lauren Day’s 37%, with Labor on 17%. The party is reportedly well placed to defeat former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad in South Brisbane, where their candidate Amy McMahon has 36% to Trad’s 30%, with Clem Grehan of the LNP on 21%. They also look in the hung on in McConnel, which was once more appositely known as Brisbane Central, Greens candidate Kirsten Lovejoy is on 30%, Labor incumbent Grace Grace is on 29%, and LNP candidate Pinky Singh is on 31%, with 8% undecided. Notes of caution: The Australian cites Labor analysis that has the party expecting to win a very close race; Kevin Bonham discerns a tendency for the Greens to under-perform their own published seat polling; and even the pollster itself cautions that the Greens are “typically over-represented in polls”, as reported by the Courier-Mail. Each of the polls was conducted “over the past month” by phone and SMS from samples of 600.
• A statewide poll conducted by LNP-aligned think tank the Australian Institute for Progress was trumpeted in the Courier-Mail on Monday as a YouGov poll showing Labor on 32%, the LNP 38% and the Greens on 12%. However, it turns out these were the results of the paper’s own YouGov poll from early June that the pollster used as a weighting base for responses to a series of other questions. The Courier-Mail report no longer claims the poll was conducted by YouGov, but continues to present its numbers as fresh results. The new poll would actually appear to have covered barely more than 300 respondents drawn from the organisation’s own online panel, which is quite a lot smaller than those used by YouGov and Essential Research. For what it’s worth, it finds a 56-44 split in favour of the LNP to form government, plus other findings you can read in the pollster’s own report.
Thanks Leroy
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/regional/toowoomba-mp-makes-major-career-announcement/news-story/85b6e0804121cfdc208ac38f68d2ea31 paywalled
By Tobi Loftus, The Chronicle
September 18, 2020 9:19am
Subscriber only
FEDERAL Member for Groom John McVeigh has this morning announced he will resign from Federal Parliament, triggering a by-election for the Toowoomba electorate.
Dr McVeigh submitted his resignation to the Speaker of the House of Representatives this morning. It is effective immediately.
He said he was resigning to spend more time with his wife, Anita, who has been in and out of hospital with an illness.
“Close friends and family are aware that my wife Anita successfully overcame significant illness and surgery in 2018,” Dr McVeigh said.
“A further relapse earlier this year that required hospitalisation in Sydney was a tremendous shock to my family.
Clem Atlee:
I think her highlighting of Prof Jordan* Peterson’s failure to distinguish the situations of bricklayers and representative politicians was quite effective. I agree she lack rhetorical flourish, but that’s not the only way to communicate, and it’s strongly arguable that it’s both less effective than the rhetors claim and there there’s an excess of it (or certainly not an deficiency)
* What kind of man is he, who calls himself Jordan? Does he still aspire to form a Boy Band and gain the cheap fame and fortune he dreamed of in his youth?
Mavis
Mind you can you name the last US president to not start a war against someone ? The last quarter century of US ‘forever wars’ have been an utter disaster.
Leroy
I know nothing about this MP. I wish him and his family all the best.
Interesting in terms of a by election scenario in any event.
Kinda explains the gas announcement by Morrison this week
Judge blocks ‘politically motivated’ changes to U.S. Postal Service ahead of
election
(Reuters) – A federal judge on Thursday blocked controversial changes to the United States postal service, saying they were “a politically motivated attack” that had slowed the nation’s mail and likely would slow the delivery of ballots in the upcoming presidential election.
U.S. District Judge Stanley Bastian in Yakima, Washington, said he was issuing a nationwide injunction sought by 14 states in a case against U.S. President Donald Trump, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, and the U.S. Postal Service over July changes to the service.
The 14 states, led by Washington, had filed a motion for a preliminary injunction asking the court to immediately halt a “leave mail behind” policy that required postal trucks to leave at certain times, regardless of whether mail was loaded.
The states also asked for all election mail be treated as first-class mail, for the replacement of necessary sorting machines that had been removed, and for the postal service to abide by DeJoy’s commitment to suspend the changes until after the Nov. 3 election.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-post-office/judge-blocks-politically-motivated-changes-to-u-s-postal-service-ahead-of-election-idUSKBN26836Y
AlphaZero
“The increase from what I have been hearing has been centered around the city of Casey and the government is throwing huge numbers of resources there.”
If true, is it feasible to just lock down the city of Casey?
Greensborough Growler @ #471 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 7:56 am
Yeah sorry, I know how to link to the image, I was more interested in where it was sourced from. No biggie.
Is it time to link the corona cluster in Casey with the anti-Dan protests that took place down that way a couple of weeks ago?
Kakurusays:
Friday, September 18, 2020 at 10:33 am
AlphaZero
“The increase from what I have been hearing has been centered around the city of Casey and the government is throwing huge numbers of resources there.”
If true, is it feasible to just lock down the city of Casey?
_____________________________________
We tried that with a few “Hotspot” suburbs a few months ago… Shorter answer = No.
martini Henry
Won’t suit the Murdoch narrative though.
Alpha zero
Yep. It didn’t work.
Richard Willingham
@rwillingham
·
17m
Good news in this: Community transmission is down. And so is the average.
Quote Tweet
VicGovDHHS
@VicGovDHHS
· 25m
#COVID19VicData: Yesterday there were 45 new cases reported and 5 lives lost. Our thoughts are with all affected. The 14 day rolling average & number of cases with unknown source is down from yesterday as we move toward C
AlphaZero
“The increase from what I have been hearing has been centered around the city of Casey and the government is throwing huge numbers of resources there.”
If true, is it feasible to just lock down the city of Casey?
Not really, no. Casey is a big area of the SE growth corridor and it’s a major thoroughfare from the city to Gippsland etc, can’t really just try and box it in. The cluster they’re worried about is connected with a particular community and the Fountain Gate shopping centre. Sutton said he’s confident the community in question are trying to do the right thing, but it’s difficult because a lot of them work in industries where work in close-quarters is hard to avoid which has triggered this particular outbreak.
Former Pence aide who helped organize White House coronavirus response backs Biden
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A former White House aide who helped coordinate the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic sharply criticized President Donald Trump in a video released on Thursday and said she planned to vote for Democrat Joe Biden.
Olivia Troye, who was an aide to Vice President Mike Pence, served as a top organizer for the White House Coronavirus Task Force that Pence leads.
A lifelong Republican, Troye, who has since left the White House, said in a video released by the group Republican Voters Against Trump that the administration knew around mid-February that COVID-19 would become a big pandemic in the United States.
“But the president didn’t want to hear that because his biggest concern was that we were in an election year and how was this going to affect what he considered to be his record of success,” she said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-coronavirus/former-pence-aide-who-helped-organize-white-house-coronavirus-response-backs-biden-idUSKBN2683CZ
Is it time to link the corona cluster in Casey with the anti-Dan protests that took place down that way a couple of weeks ago?
As much as I’d love to, it’s not them…
What time is national cabinet going to take place?
Hopefully the states will tell Morrison that he needs to sort out any future travellers returning to Australia.
As I mentioned earlier, Europe is going through another wave, and the other countries Still don’t have COVID under control.
Expat
Yes. As reported. It does appear to be a certain cluster that probably had nothing to do with the anti lockdown protests.
poroti says:
Friday, September 18, 2020 at 10:26 am
[‘Mind you can you name the last US president to not start a war against someone ? The last quarter century of US ‘forever wars’ have been an utter disaster.’]
His one saving grace. Mind you, if he had thought that a war would’ve enhanced his reelection, I have no doubt he would’ve started one. It’s too late now though – I think.
socrates : [Still waiting for Labor to call out Scomo’s corrupt gas funding scheme. ]
i wouldn’t pin your next breath on that.
____
[The inability to get meaningful climate change action in Australia’s parliament can be linked to apathetic politicians in all quarters.]
its not too late for someone with your broad minded commitment to tackling the climate emergency head on to sign steggall’s petition in support of her private member’s bill to legislate reduction targets & a review mechanism. its no more worthless a gesture than waiting for godot of the alp. -a.v.
https://join.climateactnow.com.au/
The impacts of Climate Change represent the greatest threat to our national security, our economy, our health and our environment. But if we implement an effective plan now, we can create a safe and prosperous future for ourselves and our children.
Zali Steggall, OAM MP
The real disgrace out of all of the last few months, is that the Australian LNP-controlled media has deliberated avoided mentioning the skyrocketing infection rates in Europe and elsewhere.
I’m willing to bet none of the anti-Dan crew marching through Melbourne realise that in Israel your bubble is 500m or how close the situation in France and the UK (or the rest of Europe for that matter0 is to collapsing on a far worse scale that round 1…
Keep ’em dumb and Keep ’em angry. Gets the Cons elected.
Taylormade says:
Friday, September 18, 2020 at 8:32 am
The Vic hotel quarantine inquiry seems to be a no go zone for Dawn Patrol.
Is looking like the Dept of Premier and Cabinet made the decision on using private security guards.
———————————–
Taylormade
That is how government is meant to work with the Department of Premier and Cabinet being the one that oversees everything and that is why it makes no sense for Andrews not knowing who was running the quarantine or who came up with the curfew.
Watching a Presidential Town Hall (CNN) with Biden and he’s doing quite a good job.
Who do you charge?
Two months earlier a Tesla vehicle was spotted driving on the wrong side of the road – without a driver.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/canada-tesla-driver-alberta-highway-speeding
Mavis
Bolton was working overtime to get one going. Not sad he left, nutter from way back. Pompeo looked pretty keen to start something but so far not got anywhere. Makes menacing noses though which may be what his job is. Trump might just make it through without starting one.
Expat,
That is exactly true…
If I were to have been running things for the LNP here in Victoria instead of the carping, I would have been pushing useful suggestions.
E.G.
To get businesses re-opened (and to allow people to work or attend), you must have had a negative test in the past week. It then becomes your pass to going to the movies, pub, etc.
Rolling out major testing programs to drive the virus out to allow full re-opening…
That would be a winning strategy in these times #Don’tExpectThemToThinkOfIt
I note the post earlier by Socrates where he/she raised the proposition that the unemployment statistics yesterday may have been wtte “ just wrong “.
The figures released yesterday were not wrong in the strict sense of the word. They were what they were. A random sample of Australians that produced the result that was released.
A better road down which to go is to consider whether the sample itself was in itself a reflection of the true level of unemployment. It simply may have been a “ good sample” in the sense it contained a better percentage of defined employed than the general population. It may have contained a higher percentage of workers receiving jobkeeper as compared to the general population. It may have picked up a higher percentage of Australians working minimal hours than the general population. It should be remembered that while unemployment decreased by 0.7% hours worked only increased by 0.1%. It could, therefore , all be driven by a increase in the;gig economy workforce as more workers identify as sole traders even though only working minimal hours.
There may be any numbers of reasons for the decrease recorded yesterday and it will be interesting to see how the rate progresses over coming months as what may have been a “ good sample” washes through.
On the other hand it simply may be what the headline figure appears to show. A economy more resilient than thought.
However, I would not be betting too much on that at this stage.
Victoria @ #550 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 10:16 am
Unlike Labor. Who can’t punch.
Player One : i demure. from his position as opposition leader abbott severely damaged the parliamentary basis of australian democracy in order to gain office. trashing parliament & in the process damaging democracy to gain office is *not* what an opposition is meant to do. abbott is beyond the pale, forever, no redemption. imo, fwiw. -regards, a.v.
Alfred.
Labor is in a very bad place when the Manly voters are to the left of them.
Labor could solve its environment problem easily. Have the same emissions target as every state.
Zero by 2030.
Virtual Power Plants will be very popular in Western Sydney.
Promise the focus on boosting the reliability of renewables the fastest of the two major parties.
Labor may actually wedge the LNP on the environment.
My God, the stupid burns with this lot.
So.. HOW is giving people who don’t need money a tax cut and creating incentives for business to expand their operations in a high-unemployment, moribund economy somehow going to save us from a recession we don’t have to have?
GS,
It isn’t stupidity, it is deliberate evil. Steal the gold and blame the covid recession. Then more tax cuts are needed, rinse and repeat…
So how is it going in Bojo’s tory wonderland where antipodean Mad Monks roam free ?
.
Covid-19 news: New cases in England up 167% since end of August
Steep rise in new coronavirus cases in England despite testing shortage
The weekly number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in England has risen sharply, as the country is experiencing testing shortages. Between 3 and 9 September, 18,371 people were diagnosed with covid-19, which is “a substantial increase of 167 per cent compared to the end of August
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-new-cases-in-england-up-167-since-end-of-august/#ixzz6YLrKz3Ab
guytaur,
Every state and territory as well as a number of business groups and the NFF has a target of zero emissions by 2050 not 2030.
The zero emissions by 2050 is also the target adopted by labor. Morrison is the one who is out on his own. Not labor.
This sudden fixation with labor targets and gas is being driven by Morrison and supported by his MSM propaganda units. Nothing more nothing less.
Federal MP John McVeigh has announced he will resign from parliament, triggering a byelection for the Queensland seat of Groom.
————————–
The Morrison government is now 76 seats, til the by-election
The corrupt foreign controlled libs/nats and their propaganda units will be on double attack mode
Qld state election and the federal Qld by-election
What states have zero by 2030 ?
https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/climate/climate-change/transition/queensland-climate-transition-strategy
doyley @ #584 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 9:11 am
😆
NSW has reported six new Covid cases, just one of which was locally acquired.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #588 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 11:18 am
According to GT, Labor has now solved its environment problems by having the same targets as the States.
Phew….
The federal seat of Groome was retained by the LNP last year with a margin of approx 20%.
No real need for anyone to do anything much at all.
The LNP will canter back in. Waste of money all round.
From WHO a current list of candidate vaccines, 9 0f which are in final phase III trials. The ‘Oxford’ one has one big advantage compared to all but a Chinese candidate, a single dose. All the others in phase III require 2 jabs 14 or 21 days apart.
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
Doyley
thanks for correcting my typo.
===================
It’s very interesting how many are willing to jump in with gloating over a typo.
Golden Smaug @11:07.
”HOW is giving people who don’t need money a tax cut and creating incentives for business to expand their operations in a high-unemployment, moribund economy somehow going to save us from a recession we don’t have to have?“
It won’t and it isn’t intended to. It’s a combination of ideology plus a gift to the Government’s constituency. It is also intended to deprive future Governments of revenue. This would force the sort of cuts to services and privatisations of Government functions that the Coalition want to entrench for the long term, even if they should temporarily lose power.
Steve777 @ #589 Friday, September 18th, 2020 – 11:18 am
And again, the locally acquired case was already isolating.
If the Murrumbidgee case from yesterday turns out to be a false positive, as expected, I make that ten days in a row without community transmission.
Time for another update from Cud Chewer to dampen my optimism! C@t?
This is where the 2030 typo occurred.
https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/climate-change/net-zero-plan
Of course NSW is not all states. Just a Liberal one.
Edit: I will change typo to mistake.
Ha!
?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=7f7e5ff2d1b53e75339cfa8c622b80b7793925f1
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
6,874,596
Deaths:
202,213
– 46,295 new cases and 879 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Well I stuffed that up..
If not already posted well worth a listen, even for just the last few minutes.
Shorter K. Murphy, how the Coalitions faustian pact of torpedoing the carbon price has come back to bite them on the arse.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2020/sep/18/katharine-murphy-and-adam-morton-on-the-governments-bizarre-gas-plan