More affairs of state

More evidence of a tight contest looming in Queensland while Mark McGowan reigns supreme in Western Australia; and a parliamentary committee in Victoria kicks the upper house electoral reform can down the road.

Not every state this time, but half:

Victoria

The Victorian parliament’s electoral matters committee has tabled the report of its inquiry into the 2018 state election, of which the greatest item of interest is a full chapter devoted to reform of the upper house electoral system. Together with Western Australia, Victoria is the last hold-out of the group voting ticket system that is electing ever-increasing numbers of preference-harvesting micro-party candidates. This reached a new height at the 2018 election, at which parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens won 10 out of the 40 seats in the Legislative Council, including two elected with less than 1% of the vote. However, the report recommended only that a further parliamentary inquiry be held into the matter. The report also recommends no change to the two-week period for pre-polling, which the Liberals and Nationals called to be shortened.

Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates.

Western Australia

A poll for The West Australian by Painted Dog Research showed Mark McGowan with an approval rating at 91%, up four from an already stratospheric result in June. Support for the state’s border closure was at 92%, up from 89% in May. The poll was conducted from a sample of 837, with field work dates not provided.

Northern Territory

As related in the dedicated post, the CLP sneaked home in an eighth seat in the Northern Territory election as the count concluded last night, producing a final result of Labor 14, CLP eight, Territory Alliance one and independents two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,560 comments on “More affairs of state”

Comments Page 7 of 32
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  4. frednk @ #299 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 5:13 pm

    Another dill that thinks things will go back to normal while the virus rolls on.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-has-to-choose-whether-to-force-the-economy-open-20200904-p55sia.html

    Some grim forecasts here, starting off with the World Bank’s prediction that the pandemic is pushing something like 60 million people into extreme poverty:

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-06/coronavirus-depression-global-economy?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=weekend_read&utm_content=20200905&utm_campaign=FA_WEEKEND_090520%20The%20Pandemic%20Depression&utm_term=FA%20Weekend%20Read-012320

  5. sprocket_

    OK, I will happily withdraw ‘debacle’ in reference to 538 in 2016, and apply it where it should have been used, the media interpretation of the polling aggregation – as Nate Silver subsequently explained..

    That was one of two actual debacles.

    The 538 simulation generates a probability distribution for the electoral college, and this too was quite accurate in the sense that if predicted that IF Trump won, then HOW he would likely win

    The second, and more important debacle is that the Clinton Campaign seems to have ignored this detailed predictive data, failed to target the risk that could lead to a loss, and duly lost. This entirely avoidable failing may have been more important than Sec. Clinton being a bad candidate (both Clinton and Trump being bad candidates increased the volatility/(co)variance, as Mr Silver points out, but didn’t skew the result)

  8. The US is scary.

    You have people on the left and right arguing the election results will not be fair and taking to the streets is a good option.

    So far only the fascists have done murder on the streets from what I see.

    Remember Trump is not being dumb with his vote twice comment. He is stoking increased doubts about election results. His team have a legal strategy around that.

    The Democrats have struck back with Trump does not respect the lives or families of military personnel.

    So while I agree with Rex Douglas on the glorification of war like calling on patriotism as Trump does very dangerous that’s not what the Democrats, the media or indeed most of the military are doing.

    The message is don’t be fooled by false claims of patriotism.

    I think it’s a very timely and important message for the American people who love their flag waving patriotism

  9. Re Lizzie @ 3:37 PM (if the Titanic were sinking today)

    That deserves wide circulation.

    In addition, there would have been lots of spin doctors in the Titannic Captain’s office denying that it’s the captain’s and officers’ fault and blaming the seamen’s union, the passengers and left-wing terrorists.

    Also, before things got to that stage, there would have been iceberg deniers. Even if the iceberg existed, we’d miss it and if we didn’t it would just cause a minor dent.

    And then of course the iceberg proves that climate change is a hoax. Climate activists with all their warming crap meant that no one bothered to perform ”back-melting”.

  12. lizzie

    Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 4:34 pm
    What a set-up. This is the ‘Star’, interviewed by the Herald Sun reporter

    What a joke. The tradie would have to wear whatever PPE is required when on site including and often face masks be they for dust or fumes or whatever. If he did not he would be booted from the site and he would 99% probability support such hardline PPE policy..

  13. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 7:10 pm

    Trumps disdain and disrespect for America’s war dead is disgraceful and disgusting.
    _______
    That’s if he said it. Which I think he might have. It fits with his language about McCain being a ‘loser’ for being captured and with his admiration for Putin being a ‘winner’ and a ‘killer’. Still, is there any real proof?

  15. guytaur:

    [‘Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 6:55 pm’]

    [‘The US is scary.’]

    All this chatter of the US polity imploding is over the top. Whence Trump is removed from office, normalcy will be restored. He’s a mere a blip in the scheme of things.

  17. Mavis

    Kenosha and the Open Carry Fascist Militia is not over the top rhetoric.

    It’s an accurate description.

    Hopefully Biden will win in a landslide and make your prediction of the end result a reality.

  18. Mavis
    Nah,the US is on the ‘dive dive dive’ trajectory of empire. Expending their treasure on bullshit wars and no longer the ‘decider’. Inflection point Dubya, Rummy and Dick committing the nation to forever wars. Mind you it was probably the election of Ronny Ray Gun who lit the ‘end times’ for Empire fuse.

  20. Mavis @ #315 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 7:18 pm

    guytaur:

    [‘Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 6:55 pm’]

    [‘The US is scary.’]

    All this chatter of the US polity imploding is over the top. Whence Trump is removed from office, normalcy will be restored. He’s a mere a blip in the scheme of things.

    Normalcy? What was normal about it? Trump’s a symptom.

  22. There seems to be quite a deal of RW organisation (local and from the US) behind these “freedom rallies”. Another thing I noticed was the number of younger people in the photos.

    Will someone finds a link between the organisers and the LNP (not just the ratbags like Kelly and Christensen)? Will Morrison himself be pinged? Will Murdoch scream “police brutality” over the arrests of some of the demonstrators?


    Protesters in Brisbane held signs reading ‘Freedom Matters’ and ‘Make Australia Great Again’.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-05/melbourne-coronavirus-restrictions-lockdown-protests-police/12633164

  26. Itza,
    I would have thought Pete Buttigieg would have been great at DOD. I don’t know who Elissa Slotkin is. And if not Pete Buttigieg, then what about Tammy Duckworth? Still, it’s only one guy’s dream team and they are there for us to discuss. 🙂

    As far as Mitt Romney goes, I reckon that would be a good choice. Obama had moderate Republicans in his team and it would be one in the eye for the Trumpists. 🙂

    There’s no choice for AG either. I’d choose Val Demings.

  27. Drat, my comment at 5:23 pm, “New footage of Saint Scotty of the Marketing, the ultimate smoke version, visiting Dan Andrews in his office.” should have read “Newly discovered footage of Saint Scotty of the Marketing, the epitome of the all smoke and no substance LNP politician.” I pasted the wrong comment.

    Anyway, back to listening to The Nasty Affair at the Burami Oasis followed by The Spectre of Tintagel.

  30. guytaur
    Trillions of dollars pissed up against the wall for SFA and the crippling of the US’s moral authority. Wars of aggression ? No worries. Torture ? No wuckas.

  32. Poroti

    The bad news for the right. The new empire is going to be The EU allied with the Five Eyes countries along with Asian countries. Japan Vietnam Indonesia The Phillipines etc.

    Saudi Arabia and Israel will lose dominance of world attention as fossil fuel wealth declines.

    Exactly when this century and how we will see the realignment is going to be interesting. We just have to hope China and Russia don’t ally in a big way.

  34. guytaur:

    Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 7:24 pm

    [‘Hopefully Biden will win in a landslide and make your prediction of the end result a reality.’]

    It will hang on the three debates, recalling Reagan’s with Carter’s.

    Great Uncle Joe, who’s obviously in cognitive decline, must lift his game – if that’s at all possible? How about someone on this site daring to invoke the Goldwater rule? It’d apply equally to both presidential candidates.

  36. Confessions says:
    Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 7:44 pm
    Is that someone wearing a tee that says ‘COVID is a hoax’?

    That must be a parody. How can someone be that ignorant?

    I typed “covid is a hoax” into Google search. There are apparently many people who believe so.

  37. You’re full of shit about Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities, Mavis. Go back to earlier today to see the press conference Joe Biden gave after Trump’s remarks about the military became known and then get back to me. If you still try and say there’s something wrong with Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities, then I can only conclude that it is yours that are lacking.

  41. (Apologies if posted earlier)

    There is a mass exodus occurring at the headquarters of Queensland’s Liberal National Party two months out from the state election.

    Party treasurer Stuart Fraser and Young LNP president Nelson Savanh both resigned from the state executive this week.

    Their departures came just weeks after party president David Hutchinson resigned from the top spot. Former president Gary Spence was moved out of his position as immediate past president and official Malcolm Cole quit the party executive.

    The father of Queensland’s LNP, Lawrence Springborg, was cut from the 33-member leadership team in July.

    Cracks began to develop after an attempted coup against Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington from within her own party in June.

    Former president David Hutchinson faced weeks of mounting pressure to resign after he was linked to the leadership plot. He stepped down in August.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/mass-exodus-at-lnp-headquarters-two-months-out-from-queensland-election-20200904-p55sm7.html

  43. Sportsbet still has Trump as favorite to win the election at $1.85, despite what the polls say.
    “Dementia Joe” losing from the current poll status will make this election all the more soul-crushing for the anti-Trump collection.

  46. Trump is in the box seat in the election. He can afford to lose the popular vote by up to 5 percentage points and still win, thanks to the EC. The election is the Republicans to lose.

  49. The Trump campaign is not going to stop using manipulated media against Joe Biden. Here they are at it again:

    A new ad launched by President Trump’s campaign in Wisconsin offers viewers a split universe: The first half displays violence, looting, fires and imagery of Joe Biden shrouded in dark, sinister hues. The second half suddenly brightens, as images of a determined Trump appear against the backdrop of an American flag and military helicopter.

    That second, brighter half also shows footage of a man, a little girl and several others busily cleaning up the mess created by violence, as a narrator intones that Trump will protect “Wisconsin families” and “communities.”

    But now this ad may become a public relations problem for the Trump campaign.

    The video images of the man and the girl appear to be owned by a French news organization that is now strongly objecting to the way they were “taken out of their context” in the ad. The news organization is also objecting to the use of the footage without permission, demanding that it be taken down, and threatening legal action if it is not.

    What’s more, the man in the ad — who appears during the portion that extols Trump’s great leadership — appears to be a big supporter of Joe Biden and Black Lives Matter, and he is also strongly objecting to his inclusion.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/04/new-trump-ad-features-some-oddly-placed-footage-now-its-owner-may-sue/

  50. [‘ YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor…’]

    I’m sure dear Anna won’t be fussed about this result.

    _____________________________________________________

    C@tmomma:

    Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 8:03 pm

    [‘You’re full of shit about Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities…’]

    Yes, dear. I make it a habit not to respond to your provocation. Call me old fashioned, indeed, call me anything, but I’m from the old school – label me sexist or whatever. You really need to tone down your aggression, aping old GG.

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