More affairs of state

More evidence of a tight contest looming in Queensland while Mark McGowan reigns supreme in Western Australia; and a parliamentary committee in Victoria kicks the upper house electoral reform can down the road.

Not every state this time, but half:

Victoria

The Victorian parliament’s electoral matters committee has tabled the report of its inquiry into the 2018 state election, of which the greatest item of interest is a full chapter devoted to reform of the upper house electoral system. Together with Western Australia, Victoria is the last hold-out of the group voting ticket system that is electing ever-increasing numbers of preference-harvesting micro-party candidates. This reached a new height at the 2018 election, at which parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens won 10 out of the 40 seats in the Legislative Council, including two elected with less than 1% of the vote. However, the report recommended only that a further parliamentary inquiry be held into the matter. The report also recommends no change to the two-week period for pre-polling, which the Liberals and Nationals called to be shortened.

Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates.

Western Australia

A poll for The West Australian by Painted Dog Research showed Mark McGowan with an approval rating at 91%, up four from an already stratospheric result in June. Support for the state’s border closure was at 92%, up from 89% in May. The poll was conducted from a sample of 837, with field work dates not provided.

Northern Territory

As related in the dedicated post, the CLP sneaked home in an eighth seat in the Northern Territory election as the count concluded last night, producing a final result of Labor 14, CLP eight, Territory Alliance one and independents two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,560 comments on “More affairs of state”

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  1. Dutton May soon come out of hiding. This Australian Story could trigger him. Be ready with your Ruby Princess as well as refugee questions.

    Still gobsmacked at the right destroying it’s credibility over the pandemic with science denial

  2. Re. The young choirboy: who gave 7.30 permission to film – with full production values, including a drone – inside St. Patrick’s Cathedral?

    Now the bloody Catholic church is part of the pile on. Payback for the euthanasia laws?

    The spawning ground of Liberalism, the Victorian Establishment – Church, business and state – sure doesn’t like uppity Victorian Labor premiers, does it?

  3. mundo says:
    Monday, September 7, 2020 at 7:41 pm
    Mavis @ #1408 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 7:28 pm

    Andrews is clearly supported by the vast majority of Victorians, Murdoch’s minions way out of kilter with public opinion.
    No, they are slowly but surely CHANGING public opinion.
    That’s politics.
    It’s a shame Labor doesn’t do politics anymore.
    __________________________________
    That’s true mundo, I was on Teams today with my 112 year old Labor voting great aunt and she said to me words to the effect of “That Dan Andrews I used to think he was ok but now after this draconian lockdown in Melbourne Im having my doubts”

  4. The LVT Principle: invent one 112 year old great aunt to debunk scientifically collected polling information from thousands of participants.

  9. With all this talk of Victorian roadmap” target COVID numbers, and questions over Qld, WA and (less discussed) Tassie border controls why is this turning into a political stoush.

    Surely it should be driven by science and the Chief Medical Officers.

    However when science gets published (to support the Vic decision) the detractors just ignore it.

  10. I hope this Australian story will give Labor the political space to join New Zealand’s refugee policy.

    I will not hold my breath. I will just hope.

  14. Tonight’s 7.30 a taxpayer funded attack on the ALP. Good to see Andrews bat away the false equivalence comparison between Vic & NSW. I look forward to Rowland querying right wing pollies with the vigour he displayed tonight.

  16. Oh dear I’ve got the gruesome twosome on my tail! Get thee behind me !

    Well gee whiz Lars, if you feel the need to introduce your life-long Labor voting aunt (114 years old (114! Count ’em!), to provide sensationally poor anecdotal evidence to put up against repeated professionally gathered poll findings, then you should stick your head up your arse and take a deep breath in shame.

    Even if she does exist, the story sounds so phony that you shouldn’t have tried it.

    The 102 year old down Amaroo Drive here HATES ScoMo.

    So effin’ what? Doesn’t prove a thing.

  17. C@tmomma @ #1444 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 8:13 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #1437 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 8:01 pm

    Christ almighty!

    7.30 treating Melboyrne as if the Black Death had reappeared. A young choir boy singing a hymn to despondency with shots of empty streets as a backdrop.

    OVER.THE.BLOODY.TOP.

    Who do they think they are? A Current Affair!?!

    I saw ACA (long story). Is it technically an interview when both people are just taking it in turns to take potshots at a third party?

  21. Last year Bunbury celebrated the 110th birthday of Australia’s oldest living person.

    So Lars’ aunt obviously immigrated since then. A truly remarkable person. Almost unbelievable.

  23. There was a story on the news tonight about a lady, oldest Aussie, celebrating her 111th birthday. So I think Lars is just having a lend.

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, September 7, 2020 at 8:43 pm
    Lars von Trier ALMOST created a believable narrative around Jeff Collins chances in the NT election!
    __________________________
    Aww c@t, I thought the Fireman could win, OC thought he would lose badly.

    He was right , I was wrong. The Fireman and Mills v2.0 turned out to be poseurs.

    Occasionally even I get it wrong on very rare occasions!!!

  28. My dear Great-Aunt would be very embarrassed at all this attention.

    She has a lot of views based on her lengthy life experience about Labor politics – I may share more if the mood takes me.

  35. davidwh says:
    Monday, September 7, 2020 at 8:58 pm
    My dear mom was a staunch Labor girl. We had many wonderful arguments over politics.
    _______________________________
    It’s important to cherish the experience of our elders – we value it all the more when they are gone!

  36. Here’s a question: – how many Pollbludger posters have had a reduction in income as a result of covid-19?

    I’d guess the decline in income has been less than the national average because of the preponderance of people here on pensions and public sector employment- although I note a few have admitted to financial hardship , including one person who admitted to being on job keeper (who was self employed)

  38. Lars Von Trier @ #1486 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 9:04 pm

    Here’s a question: – how many Pollbludger posters have had a reduction in income as a result of covid-19?

    I’d guess the decline in income has been less than the national average because of the preponderance of people here on pensions and public sector employment- although I note a few have admitted to financial hardship , including one person who admitted to being on job keeper (who was self employed)

    Private sector employed, but no loss of income. Already worked from home, so no loss of anything actually.

    Bit harder to get a tee-off time though, golf has absolutely boomed this year.

  39. Lars Von Trier @ #1484 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 9:04 pm

    Here’s a question: – how many Pollbludger posters have had a reduction in income as a result of covid-19?

    I’d guess the decline in income has been less than the national average because of the preponderance of people here on pensions and public sector employment- although I note a few have admitted to financial hardship , including one person who admitted to being on job keeper (who was self employed)

    You first!

  40. Lars

    It’s the poor Australia needs to listen to.

    The LNP proved it. A government with the will can end homelessness.

    There are no valid grounds to stigmatise anyone due to their income status or society definition of work.

  42. Lars no real change for me although I did receive 2*$750 supplement payments. Biggest change was the hit to my super/pension fund due to the stock market fall.

    It is what it is.

  47. Yes I think covid – has had paradoxical financial impacts – some people have benefited (so if you had high debt levels but you preserved your income) – your ahead because of lower interest rates.

    If your on some form of government transfer payments you’ve come out evens or better

    If your in certain business areas (say hospitality) your behind as obviously anybody who has been retrenched. Presumably more people will feel pain with the bank holidays ending and retrenchments rising too.

    Im interested in how many people who’ve had no negative financial impact or indeed improved are big supporters of lock down etc.

  48. I support restrictions where needed but I am in the higher risk age so may be biased. I don’t support herd immunity with a virus this virulent and deadly.

  49. Be afraid of Donald Trump and his Enablers. Be very afraid:

    Are Democrats doing enough right now to create a conceptual foundation for communicating it adequately to voters, if and when President Trump and his cronies go through with the plans to corrupt the election that they themselves have telegraphed is coming?

    Two important developments just took place that raise the sense of urgency we should feel around this question.

    The first of these is that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.) just sent a scalding letter to Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe over the news that intel officials will no longer give verbal briefings to Congress about foreign interference in the election.

    The second is that Chad Wolf, the acting secretary of homeland security, went on an authoritarian nationalist’s widely watched propaganda show and flatly declared that the attorney general of the United States is investigating the leaders of Black Lives Matter and antifa, and that prosecutions might be forthcoming.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/01/are-democrats-ready-what-trump-his-cronies-may-pull-this-fall/

  50. Wife and I are big supporters of restrictions, but are always careful to begin with the disclaimer that it’s easy for us because we’re not directly affected.

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