A bone for every dog in the federation kennel:
New South Wales
Gladys Berejiklian has backed a move for the Liberal Party to desist from endorsing or financially supporting candidates in local government elections, reportedly to distance the state government from adverse findings arising from Independent Commission Against Corruption investigations into a number of councils. Many in the party are displeased with the idea, including a source cited by Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph, who predicted “world war three” because many MPs relied on councillors to organise their numbers at preselections.
Victoria
The second biggest story in the politics of Victoria over the past fortnight has been the expose of the activities of Liberal Party operator Marcus Bastiaan by the Nine newspaper-and-television news complex, a neat counterpoint to its similar revelations involving Labor powerbroker Adem Somyurek in June. The revelations have been embarrassing or worse for federal MPs Michael Sukkar and Kevin Andrews, with the former appearing to have directed the latter’s electorate office staff to spend work time on party factional activities.
Together with then state party president Michael Kroger, Bastiaan was instrumental in establishing a conservative ascendancy with help from Bastiaan’s recruitment of members from Mormon churches and the Indian community. Having installed ally Nick Demiris as campaign director, Bastiaan’s fingerprints were on the party’s stridently conservative campaign at the 2018 state election, which yielded the loss of 11 lower house Coalition seats. Religious conservatives led by Karina Okotel, now a federal party vice-president, then split from the Bastiaan network, complaining their numbers had been used to buttress more secular conservatives.
The Age’s report noted that “in the days leading up to the publication of this investigation, News Corporation mastheads have run stories attacking factional opponents of Mr Bastiaan and Mr Sukkar”. Presumably related to this was a report on Okotel’s own party activities in The Australian last weekend, which was long on emotive adjectives but short on tangible allegations of wrongdoing, beyond her having formed an alliance with factional moderates after the split.
Queensland
There are now less than two months to go until the October 31 election, which is already awash with Clive Palmer’s trademark yellow advertising targeting Labor. Thanks the state’s commendable law requiring that donations be publicly disclosed within seven days (or 24 hours in the last week of an election campaign), as compared with over a year after the election at federal level (where only donations upwards of $14,000 need to be disclosed at all, compared with $1000 in Queensland), we are aware that Palmer’s companies have donated more than $80,000 to his United Australia Party. Liberal National Party sources cited by The Guardian say a preference deal has already been struck with Palmer’s outfit, although others in the party are said to be “furious” and “concerned” at the prospect of being tarred with Palmer’s brush.
Western Australia
I have nothing to relate here, which is worth noting in and itself, because the near total absence of voting intention polling from the state since Mark McGowan’s government came to power in 2017 is without modern historical precedent. This reflects the demise of the aggregated state polling that Newspoll used to provide on a quarterly basis in the smaller states (bi-monthly in the larger ones), and an apparent lack of interest in voting intention polling on behalf of the local monopoly newspaper, which offers only attitudinal polling from local market research outfit Painted Dog Research.
The one and only media poll of the term was this one from YouGov Galaxy in the Sunday Times in mid-2018, showing Labor with a lead of 54-46, slightly below the 55.5-44.5 blowout it recorded in 2017. With Newspoll having recorded Mark McGowan’s approval rating at 88% in late June, it can be stated with confidence that the gap would be quite a bit wider than that if a poll were conducted now. The West Australian reported in late July that Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, had Labor leading 66-34, which would not sound too far-fetched to anyone in tune with the public mood at present. The next election is to be held on March 13.
South Australia
I have been delinquent in not covering the publication of the state’s draft redistribution a fortnight ago, but Ben Raue at The Tally Room has it covered here and here, complete with easily navigable maps.
These are the first boundaries drawn since the commissioners were liberated from the “fairness provision” which directed them to shoot for boundaries that would deliver a majority to the party with the largest two-party vote. This proved easier said than done, with three of Labor’s four election wins from 2002 and 2014 being achieved without it. The commissioners used the wriggle room allowed them in the legislation to essentially not even try in 2014, before bending other backwards to tilt the playing field to the Liberals in 2018, who duly won a modest majority from 51.9%.
By the Boundaries Commission’s own reckoning, there would have been no difference to the outcome of the 2018 election if it had held under the proposed new boundaries. Nonetheless, the Liberals have weakened in three seats where they are left with new margins of inside 1%: Elder, where their margin is slashed from 4.5% to 0.1%; Newland, down from 2.1% to 0.4%; and Adelaide, down from 1.1% to 0.7%. Their only notable compensation is an increase in their margin in King from 0.8% to 1.5%, and a cut in Labor’s margin in Badcoe from 5.6% to 2.0%.
Tasmania
Local pollster EMRS has published its quarterly state voting intention poll, which reflects Newspoll in finding voters to be over the moon with Premier Peter Gutwein, who came to the job just in time for COVID-19 to hit the fan when Will Hodgman retired in January. Over three polls, the Liberal vote has progressed from 43% to 52% to 54%; Labor has gone from 34% to 28% to 24%; and the Greens have gone from 12% to 10% and back again. Gutwein now leads Labor’s Rebecca White by 70% to 23% as preferred premier, out from 63-26 last time (and 41-39 to White on Gutwein’s debut in March). The poll was conducted by phone from August 18 to 24.
Northern Territory
With the last dregs of counting being conducted from now through Friday, fully our of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory remain in doubt following the election the Saturday before last, with current margins ranging from seven to 18 votes. However, the actual election result is well and truly done and dusted, with Labor having 13 seats in the bag. You can follow the action on my dedicated post, which includes live updating of results.
Australian Capital Territory
Not that I have anything particular to say about it at this point, but the Australian Capital Territory is the next cab off the election rank with polling day on October 17, a fortnight before Queensland.
New Zealand
Do Kiwi nationalists complain of being treated like the seventh state in Australia? Well, they can now, as I have a new Roy Morgan poll to relate ahead of their election which will, like that of the ACT, be held on October 17, with the originally anticipated date of September 19 being pushed back due to its recent COVID-19 flare-up. If this poll is any guide, this may have knocked a coat of paint off Labour without in any way endangering Jacinda Ardern’s government.
Labour is now at 48%, down from 53.5% last month, with National up two to 28.5%. The Greens are up from 8% to 11.5%, and do notably better out of this poll series than rivals Colmar Brunton and Reid Research, which show them struggling to keep their head above the 5% threshold that guarantees them seats in parliment under the country’s mixed-member proportional representation system. New Zealand First remain well below it at 2.5%, albeit that this is up a point on last month, while the free-market liberal ACT New Zealand party is clear of it on 6%, down half a point. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 897 “during August”.
guytaur
The greens don’t bully, they run a finding con.
FredNK
It’s looking like Labor wants to blame the Greens and not negotiate
I see the greens are working on maintaining the $14,300 donation limit.
CPRS
Malaysia
#thegreensareneverwrong
guytaur
If the greens decide to vote Labors amendment down then so be it. The days when a minor party screws the country for funding con have to be over.
frednk
Not how it reads…….
.
Labor has moved a symbolic second reading amendment calling for the donation disclosure threshold to be lowered from $14,300 to $1,000. The Greens are moving a substantive amendment to do the same thing – challenging Labor to vote in line with its policy and take action to lower the threshold.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/sep/02/australia-coronavirus-live-update-victoria-state-of-emergency-china-scott-morrison-covid-19-parliament-live-news
guytaur
The Greens constantly complain that “the duopoly” accepts large sums from donors which affect their voting. Therefore you’d think that their priority would be to get rid of the large donations. Fiddling about with other conditions so that the legis may not pass is then an excuse for more dissing of “the duopoly”. This is the old perfection at play.
The greens are probably having hallway meetings with the Liberals to set out tactics to keep the $14300 limit as we post.
Labor has its talking points.
Blame the Greens.
The Greens talking point will be Labor sellouts.
Both parties faling to negotiate failing to get political donations reform done.
Symbolic as it is with the LNP defeating it in the HOR.
Seriously sometimes you’d swear the Greens were in government reading this site.
The best part of today is the GDP figures at 1120.
if it is the bloodbath the terminator is foreshaddowing.. Then albo only needs to say “We would’ve gotten more people back to work by now” all the way to the lodge.
The game is shifting from old people to the economy. Tip of the hat to Chairman Dan for getting his state under control.
Now the fight over the new economy starts.
This gave me a chuckle
Chris Bowen
@Bowenchris
·
1h
Australians are entitled to ask “what would Tony Abbott do?” And be satisfied to know we are on the right track if doing the exact opposite.
Quote Tweet
Malcolm Farr
@farrm51
· 2h
Abbott would be recognised as Australia’s worst health minister had Peter Dutton not been crowned as such. Many would still back Tony for the title. twitter.com/joshgnosis/sta…
Lizzie
It’s symbolic.
It’s Labor’s policy. So stick to it. You know it’s going to be defeated by the LNP anyway.
Mundo
Yes exactly.
lizzie says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 10:55 am
guytaur
..
of “the duopoly”. This is the old perfection at play.
Your assuming it has something to do with perfection and not a strait out cynical play. A $14300 limit would disadvantage the Liberal, not so much Labor and not the greens at all as their play is a public funding con. The Greens are looking after the senior partner in the Green/Liberal wedge.
FredNK
Labor is not backing its own policy in a symbolic vote.
Now we have all the bleating because the Greens are making Labor Policy the bottom line on a symbolic vote.
Oh dear!!!!
Of course if the Greens get the LNP to vote for some limits becoming real Labor can’t have that.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 10:27 am
Briefly
It’s simple. Assange is not a US citizen.
Break this principal and China can start getting Australia to deport Hong Kong Ex Patriates.
Bollocks. Absolute bollocks. But apart from that if Assange is wanted in HK, that would be a matter for HK and the UK, where he’s now being held.
You arent going to get me talking about noses on this blog. Not again. No way.
guytaur
An amendment in the senate is more then symbolic. The greens no doubt will succeed in protecting the senior party in the Green/Liberal wedge. Nothing less is expected.
Bridget Rollason
@bridgerollo
·
1h
.
@FionaPattenMLC
says the voting in favour of extending SOE by another 6 months was the right and responsible thing to do.
“Those who voted against it, how do they expect to come out of restrictions?”
She says the trolling & abuse hasn’t ended
@abcmelbourne
#springst
FredNK
Labor will continue voting against real reform now to get its perfect legislation.
Labor doing the pure being the enemy of the good
Just on your argument.
I missed this story yesterday but my compliments to the Victorian Andrews’ government for advancing a renewable power project funding as a mechanism to encourage Victoria’s economy to expand out of Covid19. This is economically and environmentally very sensible. Politically, it can’t have hurt the upper house vote last night either 🙂
https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/a-shot-in-the-arm-victoria-backs-clean-energy-in-bid-to-fuel-covid-19-recovery-20200901-p55r9r.html
the “greens/lnp wedge” is a conspiracy theory. -a.v.
Abbott, total failure as a PM as no surprise….However, I would like to know how he reconciles his values, no doubt steeped in his upbringing as a Catholic, and still friends I gather with the likes of Pell, when it comes to the sanctity of life….Undoubtedly he wore his anti-abortion value on his sleeve but apparently this does no extend to compassion for the elderly and the sick………………Not only a failure as a PM but a moral coward as well…….
Simon Katich @ #168 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 9:06 am
Blessed are the big noses!
Somewhat on a tangent, but on Sportsbet, Trump is now favourite to win the 2020 US Presidential election. The UK markets still have the race even or slightly favouring Biden. Moreover, the President has BIG momentum.
Looks like it’s all over bar the shouting. The Left can look forward to another four years in the wilderness and continuing Supreme Court irrelevance for next fifty.
The word Greens appears 42 times on page one of this blog.
LNP 3 times
Liberal 12 times
Coalition 2 times
Weird.
mundo @ #177 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 11:18 am
Not so weird. Labor partisans know who the real enemy is! 🙁
alfred venison @ #171 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 11:14 am
A wedge of Greens/lnp comes from a kind of vegetarian omelette which includes Lettuce, Nasturtium leaves and Parsley. It’s quite nice though a little bitter.
The Greens run another parliamentary stunt. Not a surprise. They continue to campaign against themselves.
NSW has recorded 17 new Covid cases. The numbers there are now trending the wrong way, with the seven day average now almost 12, up from a trough below 5 a week ago.
So where to now? Blowout? Another ’ripple’ like we had in mid August? Continued balancing along the precipice?
EDIT: one new case in quarantine, 15 related to known sources / clusters and just one of unknown source, so that’s something: https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-victorian-state-of-emergency-extended-two-sydney-schools-close-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-resumes-20200902-p55rip.html
Steve777 @ #181 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 11:24 am
And a bit slow with their tweets today, so we don’t know the details yet. Doesn’t look good though.
TBH, GDP figures are not even half the story. Sure, stats on economic health are useful data. But playing political games with it is more than a little esoteric.
Unemployment, underemployment, business closures and bankruptcy, poverty, inequality, crime, health outcomes, justice/fairness, corruption, success on merit….
Clearly underemployment isnt going away anytime soon. And that has many flow on effects. Dealing with that is a huge political and societal problem and shouldnt/cant be simply put down to a slogan like Jobs’n’Growth (F Me). Too many on the right and in corporations see it as an opportunity to lower wages and conditions and fail to see the major structural social and longer term economic problems both underemployment AND the attempts to lower wages/conditions will bring.
Time has come to rethink the GDP and jobs mantras. Yes, people need to be occupied. But that doesnt need to be 5% unemployment goals. It doesnt need to be two full time jobs in a family. But it will need to be job security and good wages and conditions. Good safety nets. Options other than just job vs unemployment. Changes to income tax. Considerations of the UBI or variants.
NSW from SMH
“Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant confirmed that just one of today’s cases did not have a known source. Of the remaining cases, eight are linked to the August CBD cluster, six are linked to St Paul’s Catholic College at Greystanes and one case is linked to Liverpool Hospital.”
The Greens contrive to keep Labor from office. It’s their gig. They were established with this purpose in mind. They are effectively an auxiliary of the LNP. Considering the volume of pro-schism material posted here, it’s absolutely no surprise they attract a lot of comment. They will help maintain the LNP in power for as long as they possibly can. This is not a secret. The Greens are proud of themselves and have their own self-satisfying arguments to justify their effective support for the local branch of the Trumpy-Party.
“You can’t model mystery cases,” says Sutton.
That’s because they’re a mystery, you silly girl.
Yes Briefly we know it’s always The Greens fault never ever Labor.
If anyone doubts that the LNP are Trumpy, consider the shelter they afford to the likes of Kelly, to the detestable Abbott, to the sycophancy of Morrison. Consider the sleight of the tongue practiced here by Bucephalus, who is a professional climate warmer.
The Greens are quite comfortable with the role they play in sustaining the Trumpists in office in Canberra.
lizzie says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 7:56 am
People dipping into their superannuation will be tens of thousands of dollars worse off in retirement and potentially add billions to the cost of the age pension over coming decades, according to a new analysis. AFR
And the LNP defended it with “It’s their money.” An example of simpletons like Senator Hume who cannot see the consequences of their decisions.
———————————
Lizzie
The worrying thing about Hume is she came from the superannuation industry so should understand that better than most but when one is on 15.4% super it doesn’t matter.
No wonder Frydenberg is looking a bit frazzled. He’s been searching in all his filing system for a Plan and can’t find one.
Briefly
To get through your madness analysis perhaps this time will be the charm.
The factional fighting within Labor that saw Labor lose the election to Abbott was all Labor.
That same keep fossil fuels faction is still a cancer inside Labor.
“The self-applauding, self-gratifying so-called “left” are nothing of the sort.
They are campaigning for Trump. In doing so, they campaign against themselves too.”
***
No, Briefly, those of us on the left who aren’t Americans have washed our hands of the right wing mess that is the US Election. You will note that even I have largely muted my criticisms of Biden in recent months, except for when defending myself from the vicious trolls on this blog who cannot accept historical facts. We aren’t campaigning for the American far-right, nor are we campaigning for the American right wing establishment. We are busy taking the fight up to the Coalition in Australia.
‘It’s simple. Assange is not a US citizen.’
Is he an Australian one? I thought he’d renounced it.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
6,257,571
Deaths:
188,900
– 41,979 new cases and 1,164 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 11:32 am
Yes Briefly we know it’s always The Greens fault never ever Labor.
Labor do not practice to keep the LNP in office. They aim to defeat the LNP and enact a program based on values of social justice, economic security and environmental protection.
The Greens apply themselves day and night to defeating Labor. It is their one true staple. Everything else has been subordinated to that ambition.
Mexicanbeemer
I think Hume’s hatred of Labor is so deep that she only cares about hitting out at them. It showed on her face during the fight over the firemen.
So labor now can start talking about jobs.
Because shits’ gotten real
lizzie says:
Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 11:37 am
Mexicanbeemer
I think Hume’s hatred of Labor is so deep that she only cares about hitting out at them. It showed on her face during the fight over the firemen.
Hume is a Lib. By definition she detests Labor. She’s a professional. She and the Greens are on the same page.
zoomster @ #193 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 9:36 am
I think so.
I don’t remember seeing anything about him having to renounce it when he took up Ecuadorian citizenship.