Affairs of state

One finely crafted electoral news item for every state (and territory) that is or might ever conceivably have been part of our great nation.

A bone for every dog in the federation kennel:

New South Wales

Gladys Berejiklian has backed a move for the Liberal Party to desist from endorsing or financially supporting candidates in local government elections, reportedly to distance the state government from adverse findings arising from Independent Commission Against Corruption investigations into a number of councils. Many in the party are displeased with the idea, including a source cited by Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph, who predicted “world war three” because many MPs relied on councillors to organise their numbers at preselections.

Victoria

The second biggest story in the politics of Victoria over the past fortnight has been the expose of the activities of Liberal Party operator Marcus Bastiaan by the Nine newspaper-and-television news complex, a neat counterpoint to its similar revelations involving Labor powerbroker Adem Somyurek in June. The revelations have been embarrassing or worse for federal MPs Michael Sukkar and Kevin Andrews, with the former appearing to have directed the latter’s electorate office staff to spend work time on party factional activities.

Together with then state party president Michael Kroger, Bastiaan was instrumental in establishing a conservative ascendancy with help from Bastiaan’s recruitment of members from Mormon churches and the Indian community. Having installed ally Nick Demiris as campaign director, Bastiaan’s fingerprints were on the party’s stridently conservative campaign at the 2018 state election, which yielded the loss of 11 lower house Coalition seats. Religious conservatives led by Karina Okotel, now a federal party vice-president, then split from the Bastiaan network, complaining their numbers had been used to buttress more secular conservatives.

The Age’s report noted that “in the days leading up to the publication of this investigation, News Corporation mastheads have run stories attacking factional opponents of Mr Bastiaan and Mr Sukkar”. Presumably related to this was a report on Okotel’s own party activities in The Australian last weekend, which was long on emotive adjectives but short on tangible allegations of wrongdoing, beyond her having formed an alliance with factional moderates after the split.

Queensland

There are now less than two months to go until the October 31 election, which is already awash with Clive Palmer’s trademark yellow advertising targeting Labor. Thanks the state’s commendable law requiring that donations be publicly disclosed within seven days (or 24 hours in the last week of an election campaign), as compared with over a year after the election at federal level (where only donations upwards of $14,000 need to be disclosed at all, compared with $1000 in Queensland), we are aware that Palmer’s companies have donated more than $80,000 to his United Australia Party. Liberal National Party sources cited by The Guardian say a preference deal has already been struck with Palmer’s outfit, although others in the party are said to be “furious” and “concerned” at the prospect of being tarred with Palmer’s brush.

Western Australia

I have nothing to relate here, which is worth noting in and itself, because the near total absence of voting intention polling from the state since Mark McGowan’s government came to power in 2017 is without modern historical precedent. This reflects the demise of the aggregated state polling that Newspoll used to provide on a quarterly basis in the smaller states (bi-monthly in the larger ones), and an apparent lack of interest in voting intention polling on behalf of the local monopoly newspaper, which offers only attitudinal polling from local market research outfit Painted Dog Research.

The one and only media poll of the term was this one from YouGov Galaxy in the Sunday Times in mid-2018, showing Labor with a lead of 54-46, slightly below the 55.5-44.5 blowout it recorded in 2017. With Newspoll having recorded Mark McGowan’s approval rating at 88% in late June, it can be stated with confidence that the gap would be quite a bit wider than that if a poll were conducted now. The West Australian reported in late July that Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, had Labor leading 66-34, which would not sound too far-fetched to anyone in tune with the public mood at present. The next election is to be held on March 13.

South Australia

I have been delinquent in not covering the publication of the state’s draft redistribution a fortnight ago, but Ben Raue at The Tally Room has it covered here and here, complete with easily navigable maps.

These are the first boundaries drawn since the commissioners were liberated from the “fairness provision” which directed them to shoot for boundaries that would deliver a majority to the party with the largest two-party vote. This proved easier said than done, with three of Labor’s four election wins from 2002 and 2014 being achieved without it. The commissioners used the wriggle room allowed them in the legislation to essentially not even try in 2014, before bending other backwards to tilt the playing field to the Liberals in 2018, who duly won a modest majority from 51.9%.

By the Boundaries Commission’s own reckoning, there would have been no difference to the outcome of the 2018 election if it had held under the proposed new boundaries. Nonetheless, the Liberals have weakened in three seats where they are left with new margins of inside 1%: Elder, where their margin is slashed from 4.5% to 0.1%; Newland, down from 2.1% to 0.4%; and Adelaide, down from 1.1% to 0.7%. Their only notable compensation is an increase in their margin in King from 0.8% to 1.5%, and a cut in Labor’s margin in Badcoe from 5.6% to 2.0%.

Tasmania

Local pollster EMRS has published its quarterly state voting intention poll, which reflects Newspoll in finding voters to be over the moon with Premier Peter Gutwein, who came to the job just in time for COVID-19 to hit the fan when Will Hodgman retired in January. Over three polls, the Liberal vote has progressed from 43% to 52% to 54%; Labor has gone from 34% to 28% to 24%; and the Greens have gone from 12% to 10% and back again. Gutwein now leads Labor’s Rebecca White by 70% to 23% as preferred premier, out from 63-26 last time (and 41-39 to White on Gutwein’s debut in March). The poll was conducted by phone from August 18 to 24.

Northern Territory

With the last dregs of counting being conducted from now through Friday, fully our of the 25 seats in the Northern Territory remain in doubt following the election the Saturday before last, with current margins ranging from seven to 18 votes. However, the actual election result is well and truly done and dusted, with Labor having 13 seats in the bag. You can follow the action on my dedicated post, which includes live updating of results.

Australian Capital Territory

Not that I have anything particular to say about it at this point, but the Australian Capital Territory is the next cab off the election rank with polling day on October 17, a fortnight before Queensland.

New Zealand

Do Kiwi nationalists complain of being treated like the seventh state in Australia? Well, they can now, as I have a new Roy Morgan poll to relate ahead of their election which will, like that of the ACT, be held on October 17, with the originally anticipated date of September 19 being pushed back due to its recent COVID-19 flare-up. If this poll is any guide, this may have knocked a coat of paint off Labour without in any way endangering Jacinda Ardern’s government.

Labour is now at 48%, down from 53.5% last month, with National up two to 28.5%. The Greens are up from 8% to 11.5%, and do notably better out of this poll series than rivals Colmar Brunton and Reid Research, which show them struggling to keep their head above the 5% threshold that guarantees them seats in parliment under the country’s mixed-member proportional representation system. New Zealand First remain well below it at 2.5%, albeit that this is up a point on last month, while the free-market liberal ACT New Zealand party is clear of it on 6%, down half a point. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 897 “during August”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,590 thoughts on “Affairs of state”

Comments Page 2 of 32
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  1. guytaur
    One women with more integrity than the rest of the Greens party put together, as much integrity as the reason party ( I still think sex party was a better name) and the animal rights party.

  2. guytaur
    One women with more integrity than the rest of the Greens party put together, as much integrity as the reason party ( I still think sex party was a better name) and the animal rights party.

  3. Jaeger @ #32 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 8:20 am

    Apparently ‘The Australian’ has a headline castigating ‘Daniel Anderson’ for his incompetence….

    Written by Tim Smith. Yes, that Tim Smith.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/coronavirus-australia-victorian-premier-daniel-anderson-has-no-faith-in-his-government-getting-this-virus-under-control/news-story/576f77f66a0775599a2d8dfa580d41f5

    Maybe Daniel Anderson is a friend of Timmy’s from Kew who is vewy disappointed in his state government? 😉

  4. FredNK

    You keep naming exceptions.

    You did that just the other day.

    You are wrong wrong wrong.

    Labor can work with the Greens.

    I hope karma delivers you a minority Labor government reliant on Greens support so you have to face the reality that it’s not impossible to work with the Greens.

    Even in Queensland

  5. guytaur
    It’s a bit like claiming all is OK because there is one women in the ACT with more integrity in her little finger than in Adam Bandt’s entire career.

  7. FredNK

    Sad fact for you. That woman of integrity you are lauding pretending she is an exception. Happens to be the leader of the Victorian Greens.

    Oh dear. Labor can work with the Greens.

    Who knew a party backing science would back that.
    Now we have Tony Abbott repeating his party trick of science denial.

    Sound familiar?

  10. We have started moving furniture out of the house to the garage in order to make it easier for the furniture removalists to get it onto their truck next week. Still so much else to do. Getting it done though. *sigh*

  14. FredNK

    Wow way to do the lying. I never made such a claim.

    You must be worried that I am wrong that Palasczcuk will win with a majority to be that unhinged about my last comment.

  15. Maybe Daniel Anderson is a friend of Timmy’s from Kew who is vewy disappointed in his state government?

    “Agent” Smith fancies himself as Hugo Weaving.

  17. Tony Abbott is such a caring logical religious man. I thought we’d got rid of him.

    Tory Shepherd@ToryShepherd
    3h
    Meanwhile, Abbott on Victoria’s euthanasia laws: “It marks our descent into a country which regards human beings as disposable, and we don’t want anyone ever to be regarded as useless, worthless or disposable.“
    ***
    Simon Cullen@Simon_Cullen
    · 9h
    Tony Abbott: some elderly Covid patients could be left to die naturally https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/01/tony-abbott-some-elderly-covid-patients-could-be-left-to-die-naturally

  18. guytaur @ #56 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 6:54 am

    FredNK

    Sad fact for you. That woman of integrity you are lauding pretending she is an exception. Happens to be the leader of the Victorian Greens.

    Oh dear. Labor can work with the Greens.

    Who knew a party backing science would back that.
    Now we have Tony Abbott repeating his party trick of science denial.

    Sound familiar?

    Hold the press.

    Cross benches support Government legislation.

    WOW!!!!!


  19. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 8:56 am

    FredNK

    Wow way to do the lying. I never made such a claim.

    You must be worried that I am wrong that Palasczcuk will win with a majority to be that unhinged about my last comment.

    I am sure the Greens will be in there working hard for a Liberal government. Time will tell if their efforts succeed.

  23. There was an interesting comment under the article in The Age I linked to re the AFL GF

    Will Victoria still get the AFL Grand Final public holiday so we can support the ticker tape parade in Queensland.

  24. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 8:59 am

    guytaur @ #56 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 6:54 am

    FredNK

    Sad fact for you. That woman of integrity you are lauding pretending she is an exception. Happens to be the leader of the Victorian Greens.

    Oh dear. Labor can work with the Greens.

    Who knew a party backing science would back that.
    Now we have Tony Abbott repeating his party trick of science denial.

    Sound familiar?

    Hold the press.

    Cross benches support Government legislation.

    WOW!!!!!

    Based on past efforts from the Greens that is the right response. There is a very solid reason why Victorian Labor do not preference the Greens if possible.

  25. Jaeger @ #64 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 8:57 am

    Maybe Daniel Anderson is a friend of Timmy’s from Kew who is vewy disappointed in his state government?

    “Agent” Smith fancies himself as Hugo Weaving.

    Hugo Weaving is tall, dark and handsome. Tim Smith is short, blocky and crazy-eyed.

    Not to mention Tim Smith couldn’t find his way out of a matrix unless mummy was holding his hand. 😉

  26. Steve Bracks
    @BracksSteve
    ·
    Aug 31
    Josh Frydenberg doing a Trump, calling on Victoria to forget the pandemic and open up the Economy. Maybe he was serious when he nominated Thatcher and Reagan as his political inspiration.

  31. Barney

    Your backing Tony Abbott and not science because that means it’s possible for Labor to work with the Greens says more about you than me.


  33. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 2, 2020 at 8:59 am

    FredNK

    Is your name Joel Fitzgibbon?

    Take note of what Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles said about gas.

    Wow; you mention this, go back through your posts and record how many times you have mentioned Joel Fitzgibbon and how few the views of Anthony Albanese and Richard Marle and you might understand why I have so much contempt for the Green/Liberal wedge. Why I have contempt for the Greens using the environment to run there little funding con. The greens are no better than one nation.

  37. Derek Thompson @DKThomp
    Compared with shouting, quiet talking reduces the production of virus-soaked aerosols by 80%; silence reduces them by 98%.

    One scientist told me talking quietly, rather than yelling, reduces the risk of viral transmission by a degree comparable to properly wearing a mask.

    The lack of outbreaks on Tokyo’s famously crowded trains offers a useful, real-world proof of the value of silence.

    While NYC spends $15 million a month blasting its subways with soap, the Japanese keep their trains safe with a cheaper tactic: masking up and shutting up.

    Two metres or one: what is the evidence for physical distancing in covid-19?

    Rigid safe distancing rules are an oversimplification based on outdated science and experiences of past viruses, argue Nicholas R Jones and colleagues

    https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223

  39. Barney

    You intervened.

    Saying wow cross bench support.

    To divert attention away from the point of the Greens chose science.
    No surprise at all.

    Just as it’s no surprise that yes Labor can work with a party that takes science seriously.

    The familiar part is Abbott again denying science and some Labor people thinking that’s fine to defeat the Greens.

  43. guytaur @ #88 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 7:16 am

    Barney

    You intervened.

    Saying wow cross bench support.

    To divert attention away from the point of the Greens chose science.
    No surprise at all.

    Just as it’s no surprise that yes Labor can work with a party that takes science seriously.

    The familiar part is Abbott again denying science and some Labor people thinking that’s fine to defeat the Greens.

    No, actually my point was that a number of the cross bench chose to support the legislation, not just the Green members, so to focus on any one is pointless, as they were all required to pass it.

    This is the case for any piece of legislation in the Victorian Parliament.

    So you can stick your projections wherever you wish!

  44. Barney

    Thank you for the concession.

    It’s good to see you know working with the Greens is preferable to backing Tony Abbott.

    We are making progress.

  47. guytaur @ #93 Wednesday, September 2nd, 2020 – 7:30 am

    Barney

    Thank you for the concession.

    It’s good to see you know working with the Greens is preferable to backing Tony Abbott.

    We are making progress.

    Concession??????

    I never realised that meant having to explain yourself, to someone who continually jumps to the wrong conclusion. 😆 😆

    No more time for the rabbit hole.

    Work to do. Bye.

  49. Cool interactive graphic.

    The 2020 presidential race will be decided by voters in a dozen competitive states, where Joe Biden and Donald Trump will focus their efforts to win the 270 electoral votes needed to reach the White House. In the interactive diagram below, try building your own coalition of states, which are organized according to Cook Political Report ratings, to see potential outcomes.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/election-states-biden-trump.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  50. Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    1h
    The federal aged care regulator halted important unannounced inspections of nursing homes for *eleven weeks* at the height of the pandemic. Richard Colbeck said the decision was based on medical advice – but it appears AHPPC wasn’t consulted #auspol
    Top health experts weren’t consulted about stopping aged care inspections
    Australia’s principal health committee wasn’t consulted before the aged care regulator halted critical unannounced inspections of nursing homes.
    thenewdaily.com.au

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/09/02/australias-top-health-experts-werent-consulted-about-stopping-aged-care-inspections/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

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