Newspoll: 50-50

Back to level pegging in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison cops a dent in his still healthy personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings.

After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.

UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Looking for a ‘Back in Black’ pic of Josh I found that Scrott had also posed for one. The bastard pinched the idea.

    Never mind there’s always a nice souvenir .

  2. alfred venison @ #177 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 9:27 am

    A burning chemical plant may be just the tip of Hurricane Laura’s damage in this area of oil fields and industry
    August 28, 2020 3.03pm EDT
    John Pardue, Louisiana State University

    Hurricane Laura plowed through the heart of Louisiana’s oil and chemical industries as a powerful Category 4 storm, leaving a chlorine plant on fire and the potential for more hazardous damage in its wake.

    The burning BioLab facility sent dark smoke and chlorine gas into the air over the small community of Westlake, near Lake Charles, and shut down Interstate 10, officials said. The governor warned residents, already reeling from the hurricane’s damage, to stay in their homes, close their windows and doors, and turn off any air conditioning that might still be operating.

    While the full health impacts of the fire weren’t immediately known, a storm-driven chlorine gas release in a vulnerable community is the type of worst-case scenario that scientists and engineers like myself have warned the petrochemical industry about for decades.

    ____
    https://theconversation.com/a-burning-chemical-plant-may-be-just-the-tip-of-hurricane-lauras-damage-in-this-area-of-oil-fields-and-industry-145217

    There are large chlorine plants at Botany in Sydney, and Laverton in Melbourne. They have both had major chlorine release events over the years.

  3. Albo didn’t need to say it, mundo.

    Jim Chalmers did it but I agree that slotting the deleted bits of Frydenburg’s unhinged snark would be fun. His raised eyebrow got a good work out.

  4. Bill Shorten
    @billshortenmp
    ·
    2m
    This is dangerous, and Scott Morrison is still silent.

    The PM needs to stop allowing unchallenged, unproven health advice from his backbench.

  5. shellbell @ #71 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 5:38 am

    According to Lawyerly

    Landmark class action filed against Victoria over botched hotel quarantine program
    The State of Victoria has been hit with a class action for its allegedly negligent handling of its hotel quarantine program, which is believed to be responsible for the state’s second wave of coronavirus

    A blatant attempt of wealth shifting.

    They’re attempting to give the taxpaying battler yet anther kick in the guts.

  6. VicGovDHHS
    @VicGovDHHS
    ·
    2m
    #COVID19VicData for 31 Aug 2020. There were 73 new cases and sadly 41 deaths. Today’s deaths total includes 22 people who died in the weeks leading up to 27 August and were reported to DHHS by aged care facilities yesterday. More info will be available later this morning.

  7. VicGovDHHS
    @VicGovDHHS
    #COVID19VicData for 31 Aug 2020. There were 73 new cases and sadly 41 deaths. Today’s deaths total includes 22 people who died in the weeks leading up to 27 August and were reported to DHHS by aged care facilities yesterday. More info will be available later this morning.

  8. Rex Douglas @ #200 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 8:04 am

    Shellbell @ #153 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 8:54 am

    Chapter one of the Victorian road map might want to address how contract tracing matches up with other jurisdictions.

    When other states see new daily cases of 700+ we can then match up.

    That’s a stupid, head in the sand, response.

    If a system breaks down then you want to find out why and make improvements.

    Looking at how other jurisdictions are doing it can give you new ideas.

    One of the main problems for Governments is that you are applying theoretical ideas in a real practical environment and either have to adapt existing systems, or create new ones from scratch.

  9. Just a small blip in the political scheme of things, but the hapless ACT Liberal leader Alistair Coe was on local redneck radio crying crocodile tears over poverty in Canberra.

    Apparently the Liberals would reduce poverty by setting up an inquiry should they win the ACT election. That’s it.

  10. The figure there includes 22 deaths which have been reported to Victoria Health by aged care facilities over the weekend.

    So that means 19 people died in the last 24 hours.

    And another 22 people died in aged care facilities in the last couple of weeks which were NOT reported as Covid deaths by the facilities until yesterday.

    So yes, aged care will be a big issue again today.

  11. The aged care owners are not reporting deaths promptly? Are they afraid of the bad publicity?

    VicGovDHHS
    @VicGovDHHS
    ·
    2m
    #COVID19VicData for 31 Aug 2020. There were 73 new cases and sadly 41 deaths. Today’s deaths total includes 22 people who died in the weeks leading up to 27 August and were reported to DHHS by aged care facilities yesterday. More info will be available later this morning.

  12. 73 Cases – 116 same time last week.

    Always seems to be a little dip in numbers on a Monday however the positive downward trend continues.
    I think people will deal with an extra week or 2 of stage IV if it means eliminating all cases.

    The death numbers are ramping up as predicted.
    On the very same day, you have those who campaign loudly for Victoria or other states to open up and let more people die.

  13. Here’s Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler for anyone yet to hear him.

    Trump tweets about him:

    Ted Wheeler, the wacky Radical Left Do Nothing Democrat Mayor of Portland, who has watched great death and destruction of his City during his tenure, thinks this lawless situation should go on forever. Wrong! Portland will never recover with a fool for a Mayor….

    The big backlash going on in Portland cannot be unexpected after 95 days of watching and incompetent Mayor admit that he has no idea what he is doing. The people of Portland won’t put up with no safety any longer.The Mayor is a FOOL. Bring in the National Guard!

    https://youtu.be/wFl210OhYfk

  14. You can see what Frydenberg wants to focus the attention elsewhere.

    Aged care has been a disaster and the feds have not sorted it out yet

  15. Senator Murray Watt
    @MurrayWatt
    ·
    39s
    We know Matt Canavan & the LNP like coal, but do they like coal miners? We’ll find out when they vote on @AustralianLabor’s Senate motion today. It’s a simple test – are you for coal miners, or the coal bosses who employ them as “permanent casuals”?

  16. lizzie @ #222 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 10:35 am

    Senator Murray Watt
    @MurrayWatt
    ·
    39s
    We know Matt Canavan & the LNP like coal, but do they like coal miners? We’ll find out when they vote on @AustralianLabor’s Senate motion today. It’s a simple test – are you for coal miners, or the coal bosses who employ them as “permanent casuals”?

    What a pathetic stunt.

    We all know a large portion of Labor are in the pockets of the thermal coal cartel.

  17. From The Shovel

    The Prime Minister has been granted special permission to leave Australia as he prepares for the country’s next bushfire season.

    Mr Morrison reminded Australians that the bushfire season will soon be upon us and that the most sensible way to prepare for the threat was from a deck chair on Waikiki beach.

    “Everyone’s fire plan is different. For some people it’s clearing the gutters. For me, it’s clearing the schedule for a bit of R&R,” he said.

    “We learnt a lot from the terrible bushfires last season. And one of the things that hopefully you learnt is that I don’t hold a hose. And the best place not to hold a hose is from a beach-side resort. In fact, I’ll be holding a pina colada”.

    Australians are currently unable to leave the country without special permission or a mate in Government.

  18. Good Morning.

    What a good poll result for progressives.
    Despite the propaganda machine going on full bore for the LNP reality is breaking through with voters for Labor. I hope the movement is indicative of a trend.

    I would like Labor to do more. I cannot complain about Labor over aged care. On this Labor has been excellent.

    I still think it’s great the ACT is leading the way. The Labor Greens government doing excellent work. The lesson for Labor is that yes being strong on policy works.

    The other lesson for Labor Mr Albanese seems to have nailed. Take marketing lessons from Morrison while pointing out he is Scottyfrommarketing. Australia’s empty suit.

    This before the recession hits the headlines in a big way.

    Frydenberg is trying to set it up to blame Victoria.

    The problem for him being Basic Income with no mutual obligation worked. People know the rate of payment and lack of mutual obligation had no effect on the unemployment rate.

    The government can determine if someone lives in poverty and give them mental health problems with stigma about “lazy” people. Or it can keep people out of poverty with good mental health making them far more likely to be job ready.

    The problem for the LNP 1 in 10 people are a huge political shift doing self interest with the hip pocket nerve.

  19. A topical subject

    The False Logic behind Science Denial
    Those who argue that COVID-19 isn’t a real threat are mirroring bogus attacks on global warming and evolution

    ………………………All this is to say that logical fallacies are everywhere and not always easily refuted. Truth, at least in science, is not self-evident. And this helps to explain why science denial is easy to generate and hard to slay…………………………………………But there is a meta-fallacy—an über-fallacy if you will—that motivates these other, specific fallacies. It also explains why so many of the same people who reject the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change also question the evidence related to COVID-19.

    Given how common it is, it is remarkable that philosophers have failed to give it a formal name. But I think we can view it as a variety of what sociologists call implicatory denial. I interpret implicatory denial as taking this form: If P, then Q. But I don’t like Q! Therefore, P must be wrong. This is the logic (or illogic) that underlies most science rejection

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-false-logic-behind-science-denial/

  20. The unholy alliance between Palmer and the LNP in Queensland – but some hardheads are concerned there may be a voter backlash.

    Clive Palmer and his companies have pumped more than $80,000 into his spoiler political party during the past three weeks – including paying coal company staff to support his anti-Labor campaign at the Queensland election.

    Liberal National party sources have told Guardian Australia a deal is already done for the LNP opposition to receive preference flows from Palmer’s United Australia party, which has launched a pre-election advertising blitz of yellow billboards telling voters to “give Labor the boot”…

    Some senior LNP members say they are “furious” and “concerned” about the agreement, which they believe has the potential to backfire given Palmer’s public campaign to end border closures, which polling shows are overwhelmingly popular.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/31/clive-palmer-companies-donate-80000-to-queensland-election-war-chest

  21. Anthony Scaramucci
    @Scaramucci

    Lessons in Gaslighting:
    @realDonaldTrump

    “I gravely mishandled the coronavirus pandemic, ushered in a historic economic collapse and encourage dangerous racial division to

    Give Americans a taste of what an
    @JoeBiden
    presidency would look like.

    Don’t fall for it.

  22. C@tmomma @ #234 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 8:45 am

    Anthony Scaramucci
    @Scaramucci

    Lessons in Gaslighting:
    @realDonaldTrump

    “I gravely mishandled the coronavirus pandemic, ushered in a historic economic collapse and encourage dangerous racial division to

    Give Americans a taste of what an
    @JoeBiden
    presidency would look like.

    Don’t fall for it.

    Or;

    You’ve already got it, so why change?

  23. Professor Adrian Esterman
    @profesterman
    ·
    41m
    Only 73 cases in Victoria overnight, but sadly 41 deaths. Today’s number fits exactly onto my predicted trend line. We are still heading for single digits by next weekend if this keeps up. Hang in there.

  24. Best thing Morrison has done for Albanese and federal labor is to exclude them from National Cabinet.

    At the time it was established the MSM were all on heat claiming how smart Scott was to side line labor , make them irrelevant etc etc etc.

    Well, it is all starting to bite Morrison on the arse now and the rantings of Josh this morning are the perfect “ canary in the coal mine” as to how much the cracks in the national cabinet are hurting Morrison.

    Right from the start Albanese did not attack any of the state or territory decisions around borders and other restrictions. He supported each of the leaders following the advice of their own chief medical officers and has continued to do so.

    We are now at the point in time where Morrison is the one looking more and more impotent and is increasingly being sidelined by the state/ territory leaders while Albanese rides on the coat tails of the huge support for state / territory leaders and their decisions.

    Fancy that !

  25. Barney

    Your problem is trying to pretend the ACT is somehow uniquely UnAustralian.

    The ACT like Tasmania is not that unique.

  26. Ten in NSW today, but 6 of those were in HQ and 4 linked to existing CBD cluster.
    Along with yesterday’s numbers, this is about as good as could be expected in the current circumstances.

  27. guytaur @ #240 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 9:04 am

    Barney

    Your problem is trying to pretend the ACT is somehow uniquely UnAustralian.

    The ACT like Tasmania is not that unique.

    The demographics of the ACT suggest it is very different to any other State.

    What is this UnAustralian thing?

    Last time I heard about it was from a RWFW saying we all need to conform to their idea of it.

  28. Kerry Chant talking about examining Opal Card (NSW travel card) data to contact people who may have been exposed to the virus on public transport. Then CCTV footage to further examine how (or if) transmission might have occurred on a bus. These people aren’t mucking about.

    (No mention of the Covid-Safe app though).

  29. Spray, just listening to the NSW presser. One worry is the person who travelled on a bus. The health officer bangs on about wearing masks (why not make it mandatory?).

    No mention of holding the same pole/strap etc as the COVID case or of washing your hands. (Ie consider everything is covered in wet paint).

    You have to do everything.

  30. Spray

    When the NSW alerts are announced, naturally the feeling is that there are stacks of cases (maybe there will be) but, it seems that this reflects the great detail of the movements of sufferers.

    I will be listening out to hear the Victorian commentary on its contract tracing set up when it gets down to a score or less daily cases.

  31. Barney

    You are trying to pretend the ACT is so different that a Labor Green government is impossible elsewhere.

    Tasmania has had one too.

    You would have been better off arguing the electoral systems are the difference.

  32. Spray @ #244 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 9:13 am

    Kerry Chant talking about examining Opal Card (NSW travel card) data to contact people who may have been exposed to the virus on public transport. Then CCTV footage to further examine how (or if) transmission might have occurred on a bus. These people aren’t mucking about.

    (No mention of the Covid-Safe app though).

    The App is a classic case of what I was saying before about the challenges of applying theory to reality.

    Great idea, but practical limitations have made it worthless.

  33. Barney

    To be clear you commented because of my specific comment aboyut Briefly and FredNK.

    The existence of the ACT Labor Green government is a factual contradiction to their narrative.

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