Newspoll: 50-50

Back to level pegging in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison cops a dent in his still healthy personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings.

After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.

UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. C@t

    The ABC parrotting the same headline, which was created by the Murdoch papers.
    And Sara Henderson is an evil chancer. Just jumps on every bandwagon. I can’t forget the stupid way she was a standout noddy for any Liberal in the HoR.

    Also

    Sky News Australia
    @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    7h
    Sky News host Paul Murray says in long weeks since Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews told Victorians to stay indoors, case numbers have remained above 100 daily and the premier still has no plan.

    No credit for bringing the numbers down from 700.

  2. Frydenburg lies, this appearance and playing Trump politics is pathetic.

    Disgusts me, don’t know how people get sucked in by his non answers, lies and fear mongering. When asked what is the alternative – should the virus be let run rampant he answered that is up to Victoria to step up and provide a plan.

    Why do we have a Federal Government?

  3. Oh dear, just saw Frytheplanet giving Andrews a spray while being interviewed by Michael Rowland. Josh sounded unhinged.

  4. Frydenberg’s demand for a “road out NOW!” just confirms that he has an unwillingness to look beyond his own privileged position as a Morrison lickspit. As well as showing his lack of intelligence.

  5. Cameron @ #62 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:18 pm

    Im very confident Labor will win the next federal election
    When governments have been in for a few terms, the last one they win usually seems to be one that is “Unexpected”
    Keating 93 this is one for the true believers
    Morison 19 I have always believed in miracles
    Is anyone able to provide an example of when a PM has made a statement like these at a victory speech, then went on to win the following election?
    Plus we will have the biggest deficit in history by a massive margin, Albo only needs to campaign on that alone

    Rodent ’98….thought he’d lost…

  6. lizzie @ #109 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 7:54 am

    Frydenberg’s demand for a “road out NOW!” just confirms that he has an unwillingness to look beyond his own privileged position as a Morrison lickspit. As well as showing his lack of intelligence.

    Someone -anyone- from Labor should do a Portland Governor and rip into him. There has to be a line drawn somewhere.

  7. lizzie @ #109 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 7:54 am

    Frydenberg’s demand for a “road out NOW!” just confirms that he has an unwillingness to look beyond his own privileged position as a Morrison lickspit. As well as showing his lack of intelligence.

    It’s almost as if the Coalition want the number of cases in Victoria to trend upwards again.

  8. Just had a look at a short cartoon on twitter, which apparently is a wake up call to us all.

    In one frame, Trump is being (unfairly, it is suggested) blamed for the pandemic.

    On another, he is meekly doing the bidding of Lord Rothschild, who is (apparently) a communist.

  9. C@t

    It’s really hard to understand, unless they count human lives as worthless.
    Quote Morrison “I really don’t care.”

  10. Frytheplanet seems to think that because the slope is going down, we should open up. What he doesn’t realise the slope is going down BECAUSE of the lockdown.

    Lack of mental furniture.

  11. Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 7:19 am
    Comment #90

    I was thinking that “rash” implied a brain fart, so maybe a plug would work better.

    Norty. Can you imagine the length of the queue (socially distanced) of those willing to insert the “plug” ❓
    🔌 That’s an electric plug which could be suitable if connected to the correct power source.

    Apropos of not much – one of my sons in law made me a nice little wooden Christmas tree 🎄 which looks like the type of plug you have in mind.

  12. Amy Siskind
    @Amy_Siskind

    Portland Mayor Wheeler to Trump:

    “You want me to stop the violence that you helped create. What America needs is for you to be stopped.”

    It’s about time Democrat political leaders started showing the President of the United States the lack of respect he shows them.

  13. Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. On current trends NSW could have more daily Covid infections than Victoria by the end of this week. So the desire for the LNP to blame Victoria for all Covid issues is more urgent.

    Yet on Covid politics I take heart from the opinion poll results William posted:
    “ 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia”

    Those are amazingly strong results. Most people want Covid19 dealt with. Labor can legitimately paint the Federal LNP as jeopardising the national response, with aged care, relaxing lockdowns and interfering wtih Clive Palmer’s challenge to WA’s hard border all being their positions. The more Josh demands Victoria open up, the more it shows the Federal LNP are not serious about covid19 protection.

  14. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden condemned the violence in Portland, Ore., accusing President Trump of “fanning the flames of hate and division in our society” and “recklessly encouraging violence.”

    “We must not become a country at war with ourselves,” Biden said in a statement. “But that is the America that President Trump wants us to be, the America he believes we are. … All of us are less safe because Donald Trump can’t do the job of the American president.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/30/trump-unleashes-barrage-tweets-response-portland-violence-says-big-backlash-protests-cannot-be-unexpected/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-high_portland-politics-1130am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

  15. I suspect the push by Morrison to define hotspot is a sneaky backdoor way of forcing states to drop restrictions. Morrison will want a very loose description and then, hey presto, no more hotspots…. Open up states!

  16. Socrates, if what you say is correct regarding numbers in NSW and Vic. It would be very damaging for Josh if he spends the week bagging Andrews only to have NSW re-introduce restrictions next week.

    NB. I do NOT hope NSW does has a runaway spread. Restrictions are the pits.

  17. Socrates @ #119 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 8:12 am

    Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. On current trends NSW could have more daily Covid infections than Victoria by the end of this week. So the desire for the LNP to blame Victoria for all Covid issues is more urgent.

    Yet on Covid politics I take heart from the opinion poll results William posted:
    “ 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia”

    Those are amazingly strong results. Most people want Covid19 dealt with. Labor can legitimately paint the Federal LNP as jeopardising the national response, with aged care, relaxing lockdowns and interfering wtih Clive Palmer’s challenge to WA’s hard border all being their positions. The more Josh demands Victoria open up, the more it shows the Federal LNP are not serious about covid19 protection.

    ‘Labor can legitimately paint Federal LNP as jeopardising the national response’

    It could, yes.

    But will it, no.

  18. PeeBee @ #121 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 8:21 am

    I suspect the push by Morrison to define hotspot is a sneaky backdoor way of forcing states to drop restrictions. Morrison will want a very loose description and then, hey presto, no more hotspots…. Open up states!

    The only definition of hotspot that the Premiers will agree to is one that fully preserves their rights to impose necessary restrictions. They’re not as stupid as the Federal government.

    Frydenburg was quite unhinged this morning – the Newspoll turnabout must really have them spooked!

  19. @ajm

    The Hungarian will have access to feedback directly from MP’s offices. I speak regularly to one about the feedback she gets, and should the Feds be successful in bringing down the hard WA border, the response is going to be beyond feral.

  20. ajm @ #127 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 8:27 am

    PeeBee @ #121 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 8:21 am

    I suspect the push by Morrison to define hotspot is a sneaky backdoor way of forcing states to drop restrictions. Morrison will want a very loose description and then, hey presto, no more hotspots…. Open up states!

    The only definition of hotspot that the Premiers will agree to is one that fully preserves their rights to impose necessary restrictions. They’re not as stupid as the Federal government.

    Frydenburg was quite unhinged this morning – the Newspoll turnabout must really have them spooked!

    Someone should point out to them that their blatant politicking over COVID-19 is what is crueling their numbers, not the fact they haven’t attacked Dan Andrews enough.

  21. As I have said previously.

    Daniel Andrews hasnt taken aim at the feds so far, as he needs the funding that only the commonwealth can provide, to continue for as long as required.

  22. Jim Chalmers says that the Feds are trying to blame their own budget problems on Victoria. I’d say that’s the reason for Josh’s emotional “think about the deprived children” nonsense.

  23. C@t

    As said on Insiders, the border closures are very popular with the people. And the states are enjoying huge support as a result.
    Meanwhile it is the feds footing the bill.
    Having said that.
    The feds have failed miserably on border control and aged care. They have been trying to sheet all the blame at Andrews and co.

  24. Tamsin Rose
    @tamsinroses
    ·
    26m
    Exclusive: Federal authorities are in the dark over whether staff are working at more than one aged care home, more than a month after measures were introduced to stop the practice in a bid to control the spread of COVID19. ⁦
    @theheraldsun
    ⁩ #auspol

  25. Oliver Yates
    @_Oliver_Yates
    ·
    7m
    Fran in RN falls AGAIN for liberal lies. Her claim that we can’t afford to address climate change as it will destroy jobs is totally without fact.

  26. Lizzie

    As mentioned on Insider yesterday, the feds have not yet got the aged care situation under control.
    If I were Andrews I would be reminding them that until all the proper measures are put in place, Victoria cant ease restrictions

  27. Peter Nicholas
    @PeterAtlantic
    ·
    1h
    Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, at news conference just now: “Do you seriously wonder, Mr. President, why this is the first time in decades that America has seen this level of violence? It’s you who have created the hate and division.”

  28. FWIW I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ask the Vic govt to provide a roadmap out of the emergency. McGowan’s government gave us a roadmap months ago, however the main difference between the two states is we got control of coronavirus here before outlining the way out. It is entirely appropriate that the Victorian govt get control of the virus first and then start to talk about what the next steps are.

  29. @ Victoria

    The Hungarian is having great difficulty coming to terms with the fact he won’t be delivering a surplus anytime soon. More likely, he’s got a $100b+ deficit to deliver, followed by an election.

  30. Thanks Victoria 🙂

    Josh’s concerns are obviously financial, and presumably selfish: “Will somebody please think of the tax collectors!” Andrews does not have to attack Josh. He simply has to say he will keep sticking to the medical advice, until the danger has passed. Josh then looks to be the extremist.

    Have a good day all.

  31. Grimace

    Seriously I would be asking the feds what the plan is to get the rest of returning travellers back to Australia.
    The virus is running rampant around the globe and until a vaccine is available, we will be playing whack a mole.
    The govt can forget more than a balanced budget.

  32. This is how they work.

    Gabrielle Chan
    @gabriellechan
    ·
    Aug 28
    One Snowy Monaro councillor John Castellari very upset at News Corp’s Bush Summit in Cooma today, “they don’t want to hire the hall, they want the use of it, zero tax, and a contribution of $10,000 on the basis they just might say stuff about us, if we pay them to.” Monaro Post

  33. C@t:’Someone should point out to them that their blatant politicking over COVID-19 is what is crueling their numbers, not the fact they haven’t attacked Dan Andrews enough.’

    I thought that Dan would be very pleased with Josh’s rant this morning. The more they attack Andrews, and Andrews responding with a straight bat, the more popular Andrews becomes.

  34. Fess

    Andrews fronts up every day and is asked quite a lot of repetitive questions. Based on the daily figures and the situation in aged care, he is being guided by the medicos.
    Business knows that and so do the feds.

  35. Well, well, well, something we suspected about Kushner all along – he’s a security risk. Remember Trump intervened to ensure his son in law was able to get top security clearance.

    On Feb. 23, 2018, White House counsel Don McGahn sent a two-page memo to Chief of Staff John Kelly arguing that Jared Kushner’s security clearance needed to be downgraded, the New York Times’ Michael Schmidt reports in his forthcoming book, “Donald Trump v. The United States.”

    Driving the news: Schmidt reports directly from the confidential McGahn memo for the first time, describing how Kelly had serious concerns about granting Kushner a top-secret clearance in response to a briefing he had received related to the routine FBI investigation into Kushner’s background.

    “The information you were briefed on one week ago and subsequently relayed to me, raises serious additional concerns about whether this individual ought to retain a top security clearance until such issues can be investigated and resolved,” McGahn wrote in the memo to Kelly.

    https://www.axios.com/jared-kushner-security-clearance-mcgahn-ecca918e-2685-473a-9504-cd412da301bf.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

  36. lizzie @ #109 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 5:54 am

    Frydenberg’s demand for a “road out NOW!” just confirms that he has an unwillingness to look beyond his own privileged position as a Morrison lickspit. As well as showing his lack of intelligence.

    The Fraud seems to think there is a magic button that can be pushed.

    If I was him I’d be happy with the continued lockdown, as it delays the time when his out “road out” will need to be produced.

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