Newspoll: 50-50

Back to level pegging in Newspoll, as Scott Morrison cops a dent in his still healthy personal approval and preferred prime minister ratings.

After blowing out to 53-47 in favour of the Coalition two Newspolls ago, the latest result, courtesy of The Australian, has two-party preferred back at 50-50. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 41% and Labor is up three to 36%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Similarly, Scott Morrison’s still-healthy personal ratings are down on the last three weeks ago, with approval at 64% (down four) and disapproval on 32% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up on both approval, by two points to 43%, and disapproval, by three points to 41%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 58-29, in from 60-25. The poll also includes a finding that “80 per cent of Australians support border ­closures if the health situation demands it”, which I’ll go into in greater detail when I see the full results.

UPDATE: The wording to the latter question was, “do you think premiers should have the authority to close their borders or restrict entry of Australians who live in other states”, which drew responses of 80% yes and 18% no. State breakdowns: 76-22 in New South Wales, 74-23 in Victoria, 84-15 in Queensland, 92-5 in South Australia and 91-7 in Western Australia, from respective samples of 475, 371, 311, 119 and 146. The overall sample of the poll was 1507, and it was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2 (Tuesday): Today The Australian brings further findings on attitudes to the leaders, specifically that Scott Morrison is rated as experienced by 79% and Anthony Albanese by 63%; Morrison is reckoned to have a vision for Australia by 72% compared with 52% for Albanese; and that Morrison is rated arrogant by 46% and Albanese by 37%. In all three cases, Morrison’s ratings have improved by either 11% or 12% since the questions were last posed in December, which is fairly typical of such polling in closely tracking the leader’s overall approval rating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,221 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Vic:

    I know, the whole show is just getting worse! But we’ve been here before: hoping something provides the final nail in the coffin of Team Trump and when it comes (if it comes), it’s impact lasts a day max and then the shitshow carries on as normal.

    🙁

  2. Meanwhile I have been following this guy on Twitter and listening to his podcasts. Very informative as to the current crazies out there attempting to disrupt the fight against covid.
    The conspiracies being espoused and the protest organised for this week, is as put by the Assistant Commissioner, batshit crazy.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/sexenheimer

    Meanwhile these crazies are going too far with harassment of our elected officials.

    Bridget Rollason
    @bridgerollo
    ·
    31m
    Crossbencher
    @FionaPattenMLC
    says she’s been inundated with vile and aggressive abuse and have referred some people police over supporting government’s 6 month extension to state of emergency powers “I have never experienced this type of agression”
    @abcmelbourne
    #springst

  3. guytaur,
    Just paying you the courtesy of telling you that I don’t have time or the inclination to respond to your silly schoolboy word games today. I have a life. You need to get one.

  4. ‘If Josh Fredenburg wants to talk about public policy now well we’re up for it, let’s start with Aged Care and then move on to the NBN to get things rolling’
    Mr Albanese said this morning in a wide ranging attack on the government.

  5. Forgive my naivety, but isn’t this “herd immunity” essentially a method of killing off the weak so that only the healthy survive?

  6. Fess

    Yea but now this is the pointy end of the season.
    The finale if you will.
    I’m expecting and hoping for some serious A grade stop in y0ur tracks stuff.
    The US has not been a functioning democracy for a very long time, but if Trump and his cronies continue on their merry way, it is going to be a dumpster fire.

  7. “Nauseating.”

    ***

    A good word to describe the establishment flock and their continued disregard for the truth. The facts don’t align with the narrative that they have been brainwashed into believing.

  8. Cat

    Yes your go to reply when you want to personally attack someone because you are being shown for the fact denying partisan warrior you are.

    None of us are perfect. I have never attacked you for the amount of posting you do on this site.

    Unlike you I don’t post about my personal life on this site very much.

  9. Barrie Cassidy @barriecassidy

    Why is it that in politics these days – in the US and here – the biggest whingers are those in government and with the power to fix things?

  10. Emma Dawson
    @DawsonEJ
    In case anyone thinks Kerry is “off the leash” because he is retired, he was as forthright and assured in his role as a working journalist. It’s journalism that has become cowed and fearful. #qanda

  11. Firefox

    This post is directed at Buce, who a few days ago tried to imply that the Greens are ignoring the mental health and suicide crisis. Like many on the far-right, he has been terribly misinformed.

    It’s a press release, from a policy point of view it doesn’t matter. If it is a really crazy effort there is a possibility the Liberals will use it against Labor ( if you vote Labor they will join the Greens and look at this crazy policy) but that is about it.

    I do understand your concern with keeping Buce happy. Even though the Greens are the minor party,they depend on the Liberal/Green wedge to exist.

  12. Fess

    Survival of the fittest worked in evolution. It would also work for political leaders who don’t want to spend money on welfare matters.

  13. FredNK

    I do understand your concern to pretend the Greens are a front for the LNP despite the very well established progressive party platform

    Can’t have a Labor people thinking being for the environment is a good idea.

    Let alone MMT or Universal Basic Income etc.

  14. “guytaur,
    Just paying you the courtesy of telling you that I don’t have time or the inclination to respond to your silly schoolboy word games today. I have a life. You need to get one.”

    ***

    C@t, you’re just another nasty right winger resorting to personal attacks in desperation. Pathetic.

  15. lizzie : Forgive my naivety, but isn’t this “herd immunity” essentially a method of killing off the weak so that only the healthy survive?
    _____
    not sure about that, but, given the long term effects of infection, it eventually could reduce the pool of physically fit & motivated young people suitable for recruitment into the armed services. so far 6 million infected over 8 months out of a population of 331 million & still no end in sight. -a.v.

  16. The Emerson College poll is not wrong.

    However, the Emerson College have been coming up with some polls that were favourable to Trump (in comparison to other highly rated polls at the time). Not always tho. I note they do not poll cellphones. They do automated, not live landline calls and an online voting system that I am fairly sure is opt in. “Opt in” is not always random.

    Lars has no interest in being correct. It is just trolling. The rest of us should keep the powder dry until the other polls come floating in through the week and 538 has time to average them and update their snake. If you want to be selective – there was a B rated partisan poll in Pa. that was super good for Biden.

  17. lizzie:

    And how many of those advocating herd immunity would claim to be pro lifers? A fair few in Team Trump I’d guess.

    And therein lies the hypocrisy of pro lifers. You can’t say you’re pro life when you put the economy over the lives of people, many of whom are vulnerable, or refuse to denounce the killing of unarmed African Americans (in front of their kids no less), or make light of the nearly 200,000 Americans who have died because of the pandemic. Or when you insist on holding super spreader rallies and events just so you can get a buzz from seeing your adoring fans worshipping at your feet, thereby putting their health at risk.

    Pro life? Yeah right.

  18. Don’t look and you won’t find. The opposite of searching for truth.

    Bill Bowtell AO
    @billbowtell
    ·
    57m
    The new Trump adviser on #COVID19 is Dr Scott Atlas. He supports herd immunity, reducing testing so as not to record cases that result, says young people have “no problem” with the disease & is anti-mask. Stand by. Politics first, pandemic last.

  19. shellbell @ #638 Monday, August 31st, 2020 – 9:48 pm

    SK

    I have not seen any state government express an interest or desire to send limited resources to other jurisdictions to see what is going on.

    Some standards around quarantine seems like a good idea. Let’s see if the Vic Quarantine Inquiry raises that one.

    The rest of what you advance seems superfluous particularly the unspecified rules and laws. No government of any description is asking for them AFAIA.

    Hence the need for the federal government to take the lead in the process. Using state borders to lock out covid hotposts is too blunt an instrument and too detrimental to the economy. The problem is such a process relies on cooperation, collaboration and trust. And nobody trusts Morrison.

  20. Confessions @ #722 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 7:21 am

    lizzie:

    And how many of those advocating herd immunity would claim to be pro lifers? A fair few in Team Trump I’d guess.

    And therein lies the hypocrisy of pro lifers. You can’t say you’re pro life when you put the economy over the lives of people, many of whom are vulnerable, or refuse to denounce the killing of unarmed African Americans (in front of their kids no less), or make light of the nearly 200,000 Americans who have died because of the pandemic. Or when you insist on holding super spreader rallies and events just so you can get a buzz from seeing your adoring fans worshipping at your feet, thereby putting their health at risk.

    Pro life? Yeah right.

    Pro life supporters seem to lose their concerns once life actually begins.


  21. sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 7:19 am

    Having done the last YouGov/Newspoll myself, the attribute page was odd.

    There was 7 attribute choices, 6 positive in nature – Strong, Decisive etc; and only 1 – Arrogant negative in nature.

    Proprietor bias.

  22. The states are using the tools in their shed. I am suggesting the Federal government, with all its carrots (and any sticks), offer to sharpen them (the tools, not the carrots and sticks) and make different tools available for the good of the common wealth.

    Marshall is asking for it. He would love for WA and Tasmania to open their borders. He would love to feel secure enough to open the border to western Victoria and western NSW.

  23. Craig Foster
    @Craig_Foster
    ·
    9m
    All MP’s who’ll vote on taking mobiles from innocent refugees in detention should check your own phone first, if not your conscience

    How many Zoom’s? Photos of family? Past memories? How much is keeping in touch worth to you?

    Are they not people as well?

  24. There is always a George Orwell quote!

    The happy state where mutually exclusive “realities” are accepted, or at least cynically used. The neo-liberal absurdity that cutting taxes on the rich will make the poorer better off is an example of this contemporary “doublethink”.

  25. I hope that those working out a traffic light system have thoroughly thought it through (I’m sure they’re working on it).

    Writing that, I was reminded of zoomster’s treatises on spelling. 🙂

  26. Lars is wrong, imo : its not biden’s to lose, its trump’s (and the gop’s) to steal. trump’s already moved to the end game and he’s got roger “agent of chaos” stone & stephen “race war” miller & louis “rain or shine”de joy & jared “the fixer”, rudi “the obfuscator”, the senate on burisma and 540+ fed soc judges in state courts & state appeal courts. looking exclusively at poll results to count your chickens & not taking into consideration the inevitable unconventional gambits of a desperate malignant narcissist & his legally compromised enablers is naive. -a.v.

  27. It’s been said so many times, but needs to be said again…

    “Herd Immunity” only works if people get long-term immunity to a virus from having had it once. In the case of Covid, this appears not to be the case. Only a couple of months later the antibodies have already dropped off.

    This is looking like it could be more like the common cold coronaviruses you catch over and over every year…

  28. Trump is evil incarnate. The local Green bludger, FF, campaigns for him. This is not a surprise. Is it any wonder the Greens are held in such low regard. The Greens campaign against themselves too.

  29. The results of the military polls posted by sprocket are unsurprising as most servicemen & women would view Trump as an oaf. There are some 1.3 m serving in the US military, most of whom would vote. Biden’s advantage over Trump of 3.9% is insubstantial but when compared to Trumps’s lead over Clinton (19.9%), it’s significant and arguably indicative of civilian voters. If Biden can get through the debates without a major stumble, as Lars Von Trier posted, it’s his election to lose.

  30. Morrison wants the states to open borders.

    Well the idiot could start by taking over quarantine arrangements for returned travellers. Surely it is cheaper long term for the feds to have organised a space somewhere that could house returned travellers with a fortnightly turn around.

    Morrison and co have failed on borders and failed on aged care. Hopeless

  31. This is why people vote for Liberals. Sheer lack of knowledge.

    On Twitter: Have been told by a country person worker that the labor premier Kennett closed all the schools never voted labor since

  32. Palaszczuk has confirmed the state’s southern border will remain closed until at least the end of this month. Frydenberg & Dutton will be beside themselves.

  33. Mavis @ #791 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 7:46 am

    The results of the military polls posted by sprocket are unsurprising as most servicemen & women would view Trump as an oaf. There are some 1.3 m serving in the US military, most of whom would vote. Biden’s advantage over Trump of 3.9% is unsubstantial but when compared to Trumps’s lead over Clinton (19.9%), it’s significant and arguably indicative of civilian voters. If Biden can get through the debates without a major stumble, as Lars Von Trier posted, it’s his election to lose.

    For me the most significant bit of that poll was the number of third Party voters who are happy to support Biden.

  34. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #756 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 9:03 am

    Herd Immunity is just another way of saying, WTTE;

    I have no fucking idea of what to do!

    It also covers “we picked up 40,000+ new cases every single day for over two months, there’s nothing that can be done now!”. When the virus gets sufficiently out of control, “herd immunity” is the only possibility left.

  35. alfred venison @ #788 Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 – 9:39 am

    Lars is wrong, imo : its not biden’s to lose, its trump’s (and the gop’s) to steal. trump’s already moved to the end game and he’s got roger “agent of chaos” stone & stephen “race war” miller & louis “rain or shine”de joy & jared “the fixer”, rudi “the obfuscator”, the senate on burisma and 540+ fed soc judges in state courts & state appeal courts. looking exclusively at poll results to count your chickens & not taking into consideration the inevitable unconventional gambits of a desperate malignant narcissist & his legally compromised enablers is naive. -a.v.

    Have to agree.
    Sticking with a Trump return.

  36. Lizzie

    Yes.

    As I have said the propaganda outlets have been doing a fantastic job.

    The biggest one. The Murdoch Propaganda Empire has given us Fraser sacking Whitlam. Howard and Abbott. Thatcher and Johnson.
    The Iraq War and Trump.

  37. Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    Labor likely to seek an amendment to the foreign veto power seeking to undo the Port of Darwin sale (as Albanese semi flagged on Sunday) #auspol
    9:58 AM · Sep 1, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

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