More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up

More evidence that Australians are heartily satisfied by the approaches taken by their governments in tackling COVID-19, even in Victoria, plus some concluding book-keeping from Eden-Monaro.

When too much of the above is barely enough:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.

• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.

• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.

• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.

• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,001 comments on “More coronavirus polling, more Eden-Monaro by-election wash-up”

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  1. “ Mindless anti-Trump protesters thinking their doing anything else other than putting him back in the WH.
    Dolts.”

    Correct, IMO.

    The whole Republican convention targeted fear of the ‘radical left’ because voter suppression works. I’d say the Republicans have some pretty solid analysis that suggests that BLM/Antifa etc etc will Lilley see large swathes of the white suburban middle class in the swing states simply sit out the election: while they can’t bring themselves to vote for the Mango Mussolini, they have genuine concerns about where the democrats will take America given that even moderates like sleepy joe seem to be somewhat aligned to the radicals.

    As ‘own goals’ go, it’s like the Adani EV convoy to central Queensland, but on a much larger scale.

  2. The US Supreme Court decides that Trump did not “win'” the 2016 and 2020 elections (as he gained less than 50 percent of the vote) and allows him to run again.
    Makes as much sense as anything else!

  3. The Left are rioting, looting and burning in Democrat run Cities and States but it is the Republicans who are divisive. Got it.

  5. Andrew_Earlwood @ #900 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 3:44 pm

    “ Mindless anti-Trump protesters thinking their doing anything else other than putting him back in the WH.
    Dolts.”

    Correct, IMO.

    The whole Republican convention targeted fear of the ‘radical left’ because voter suppression works. I’d say the Republicans have some pretty solid analysis that suggests that BLM/Antifa etc etc will Lilley see large swathes of the white suburban middle class in the swing states simply sit out the election: while they can’t bring themselves to vote for the Mango Mussolini, they have genuine concerns about where the democrats will take America given that even moderates like sleepy joe seem to be somewhat aligned to the radicals.

    As ‘own goals; go, it’s like the Adani EV convoy to central Queensland, but on a much larger scale.

    Haha couldn’t help yourself could you.

    Labor is NEVER wrong !

  6. Re the two WaPost articles posted by C@tmomma:

    It is significant that the RW crowd clashing physically with protesters are openly associated with Trump. There seems to be no open association between BLM and other protesters with Biden.

    Trump has now dealt himself into a most dangerous game where anything the RW crowd do – from harassing people through to murder – is permanently linked to Trump and his term as President.

    Is Trump the first President to be so closely and publicly linked to RW thugs and killers?

  8. Bucephalus says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 3:49 pm

    That’s a big fat tie Buce.

    It all started when thugs came into town.

  9. William,
    Yes, Washington. I blame a migraine.

    Are you working on the ‘problem shared is a problem halved’ principle?

  10. citizensays: Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 3:55 pm

    Trump has now dealt himself into a most dangerous game where anything the RW crowd do – from harassing people through to murder – is permanently linked to Trump and his term as President.

    Is Trump the first President to be so closely and publicly linked to RW thugs and killers?

    *****************************************************************

  11. But seriously, I agree with other commenters here that violent protests are damaging causes they are purporting to promote. This kind of stuff is grist to the conservatives’ mill, it scares the uncommitted voters and distracts from the real issues of a corrupt and incompetent administration running the USA onto the rocks.

  12. The Sparrow Project
    @sparrowmedia
    ·
    1h
    Replying to
    @sparrowmedia
    CONFIRMED: Similarly to that of the violent ‘call to arms’ in Kenosha WI, this evening’s confrontational “Trump Caravan” utilized a Facebook event page to market their event and create space for violent inspiration in their discussion tab. https://facebook.com/events/6587709

    @sparrowmedia
    UPDATE: The individual who was killed appears to have worn tactical gear with adornments associated with “pro-police” and anti-Islam positions.

  13. #weatheronPB. It’s been a beautiful day in Sydney, you could call it the start of Spring. A cold start at 2-9° across the metro area, rising to 25-27° in the afternoon. Clear blue skies and light breezes, the only fly in the ointment being smoke haze from hazard reduction burns.

  14. Protests can be infiltrated by people that only want violence. The TRUMP crowd need to be careful they may kill their own.

  15. So there’s been no rioting, looting or burning by anyone except Trump supporters. Noted.

    Democratic State and Local Law Enforcement have had total control over all the peaceful protests. Apparently.

    There have been no “No-Go” areas for Police.

    Marvellous news. I wonder what the media have been reporting on to get it so wrong.

  16. Democracy.

    Roughly a third of American voters think that the Marxist slogan “From each according to his ability to each according to his need” appears in the Constitution. About as many are incapable of naming even one of the three branches of the United States government. Fewer than a quarter know who their senators are, and only half are aware that their state has two of them.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/11/07/the-case-against-democracy

    I am wondering if rather than a beacon of light or the “end of history” political system, democracy is only as good at keeping despots and decay at bay as the willingness of its leaders to hold to proper norms. Norms are weak defenses when politics descends into a bitter partisan game and a nutter is allowed to rise to the top of one of the 2 ruling parties.

  19. Also Bruce, it sounds like you support the actions of trump supporters by running the protestors over, and spraying them, etc, throwing guns about.

    Who is doing the worst ?

  20. frednk says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 4:23 pm
    Bucephalus
    “Do you really think all this shit is going to win trump the election?”

    Probably not but it’s certainly making it a lot closer than it should be.

  23. frednk

    Bucephalus
    Do you really think all this shit is going to win trump the election?

    On its own ? Nope. Will it play an large part ? Yep.

  25. William do you still think Trump will overtake Biden in the electoral college in March?

    Lars, the projections do actually show a slight narrowing now — nothing seismic, but it’s there — without you having to squint and think wishfully about them. They didn’t at the time you said they did.

  29. Bucephalus says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 4:38 pm

    Zerlo says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    Rioting? Where are Trump supporters rioting?
    _________________
    Well..alot of them are revolting…..

  30. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article245241965.html
    “The Florida Department of Health accidentally released a report on COVID-19 outbreaks at schools across the state — from daycare centers to colleges — and found that nearly 900 students and staffers had tested positive during a two-week period in August as schools had just begun or readied to reopen.”

    “State officials published the six-page draft online on Monday, but then quickly wiped it away a day later. The Herald obtained a copy before it disappeared.”

    They “hiding” the data.

  31. Another aspect of the fires. In every volunteer organisation there are personality clashes, but the tragedy of the fires has magnified these, I think.

    Most wildlife volunteers are hard-working and dedicated to animals, yet bullying and conflict is a longstanding problem in the wildlife rescue sector. The stress and trauma of the 2019-2020 bushfires and jealous rivalries over fundraising brought simmering tensions to boiling point for many groups.

    There are 31 organisations licensed for wildlife rescue and care in NSW, from local volunteer groups to institutions such as Taronga Zoo and Sydney’s SEA LIFE Aquarium. The biggest volunteer group is Sydney-headquartered WIRES, which has 28 branches across much of the state and raised more than $90 million during the bushfires.

    All wildlife carers had their work cut out for them last summer, as the final report of the NSW Bushfire Inquiry handed to the state government at the end of July and published this week, makes clear.

    The report says the 2019-2020 bushfires burned 5.5 million hectares in NSW, killing at least 800 million animals. The report points out that many of the surviving animals returned to burnt-out areas without food and shelter or were hunted by feral animals such as foxes and cats that tend to proliferate after fire.

    The animal suffering was the backdrop for human drama.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/rednecks-on-power-trip-culture-of-bullying-and-conflict-in-wildlife-rescue-20200814-p55luh.html

  32. Tony Abbott, the former Australian prime minister, boasted that he signed deals with China because he was not “sidetracked by peripheral issues such as labour and environmental standards”, raising further questions over the UK government’s reported intention to use him as a trade envoy.
    …
    Abbot’s past accounts of his role in Australia’s trade deals with China, Korea and Japan, signed during his two-year premiership, suggests he would have little sympathy with government’s stated intentions to maintain British standards on food, the environment and workers’ rights.
    …
    Green groups are concerned that news of Abbott’s appointment is part of a pattern. Shaun Spiers, chair of the Greener UK coalition, said: “Tony Abbott would be a perfect choice to advise the government on how to undermine environment, animal welfare and food standards. But if the government really is serious about not compromising these standards in trade negotiations, appointing him is bizarre.”

    David Lawrence from the Trade Justice Movement said: “Hiring Tony Abbott to one of the top jobs in UK trade policy is a baffling choice.

    “The government claims it wants Britain to be a world leader on tackling the environmental crisis, but in order to achieve this our trade policy – and trade appointments – need to be radically overhauled.”

    Australian and British politicians have reacted with incredulity to reports of the appointment, which has not been confirmed, although Truss said Abbott had done “excellent work” on trade in the past. Critics say Abbott had little to do with Australia’s trade deals.

    He is sceptical about the climate crisis and in 2014 as prime minister he attempted to delist 74,000 hectares of World Heritage-protected forest in Tasmania.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/30/fresh-controversy-over-tony-abbotts-brexit-trade-role

  35. Lars, the projections do actually show a slight narrowing now — nothing seismic, but it’s there

    It might be there. I just dont think there have been enough quality polls during the last week or two to be at all confident it is there.

    The 538 national Head to Head shows Bidens lead the same as it was at the beginning of August. Which is a shade below what it was at the beginning of July and a couple of shades higher than the beginning of June.

    Since the middle of June Biden’s lead has been remarkably consistent.


  36. Paul Benson, attending a rally for Democratic candidate Hank Gilbert in Tyler, Tex., is attacked by Blue Lives Matter protesters on July 26. Benson says he was trying to keep counter-protesters back from the speakers when he was attacked. “I didn’t expect this,” Benson said, “I didn’t know what to expect, but I didn’t expect this.” (Sarah A. Miller/AP)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/protests-violence/2020/08/27/3f232e66-e578-11ea-970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html

    Those violent, non-Trump supporting Democrats. In Texas. Eh, Buce?

  43. Maurice Billi – armitage*shanks
    @mauricebilli

    Well said Albo. “When our health system needed reform, Labor delivered Medicare. When disability care needed reform, Labor delivered the NDIS. When our age care system needed saving, the Morrison Government gave us seven years of neglect.#AgedCareCrisis #auspol

  47. I would think America is someway off a civil war compared to the race riots and the anti-war movement in the 60s.

  48. poroti @ #944 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 5:51 pm

    He got it right in 2016, will he be right in 2020?
    .
    Michael Moore says Donald Trump is on course to win in November
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12360702

    No.

    1. Biden is male.
    2. The American people aren’t voting in a vacuum. They have had 4 years of Trump.
    3. The Bernie Bros won’t be staying home or voting for Jill Stein. Unless they are blinkered idiots like some of Sanders’ supporters here on PB.

  49. He got it right in 2016, will he be right in 2020?

    If mail-in voting in the US is anything like postal voting here – conservatively biased – then Trump’s attempt to stifle mail-in voting will only keep conservatives from voting absentee, won’t it?

    Not that I am an expert on the US voting system.

  50. All sorts of people who correctly predicted Trump’s win last time are predicting a range of outcomes this time.

    One of them making one particular prediction is no more significant than another of them making the contrary one.

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