When too much of the above is barely enough:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.
• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.
• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.
• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.
• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.
lizzie @ #847 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:19 am
I think it just focuses on how important grammar is.
I have to really concentrate on each word when I read students writing, otherwise I miss spelling errors, whilst grammar errors stand out like a sore thumb. 🙂
ItzaDream
During my childhood we had a three generation household at times as different grandparents came to live out their lives. It helped us learn about our family history and grandparents can be great friends and confidants.
My children had an extended period of a three generation family during their teenage years and loved the home cooked treats grandma made for them each day. I loved the additional help that my mother offered because I worked long hours and was a single parent.
When my son was building his house we discussed my husband and I staying for a year to help with childminding because DIL needed to go back to work. With my sons strange hours and her full time work traditional Childcare was not going to cut it. We have now been here five years, I get assistance with my husband who has Alzheimer’s and they get free childcare, meals cooked when they get home and laundry services. Now they are expecting again I thought they may want us to move but this was roundly knocked on the head as not being a good idea. Luckily because the decision was originally made prior to the house build they added an extra ensuite bathroom so we have a discreet space consisting of study bedroom and bathroom we use so we are not on top of each other when we are all home.
It is working well and would make more sense for a lot of people if they can get over the idea of living with their kids. Moving in when you can contribute is preferable to feeling you have no options due to health and see yourself as a burden.
Lars Von Trier @ #808 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:50 am
Stick your advice up your jumper, LvT. I’ll post as much as I like. Frankly, I’m ahead of schedule, so you’ll see more of my posts, not less. Like it, or lump it. And if it gets in the way of your attempts to skew the debate. Tough.
The thing with the can you read this with muddled up letters statment.
two and three letters words are fine.
four letters words are a simple switch.
More then half of all five letters words have at least one of the three middle letters in the right place.
BLWON
EEVRY
WOLHE
PEOWR
FIURT
Very few words actually have six or more letters.
This means you can work out most of the words by themselves without the context of the other words.
That’s exactly what I mean by “smartarsery”. If you don’t care about Savva’s ancestry, why start an argument about it?
The reason I brought it up is because a high number of Victorian fatalities due to COVID-19 occurred in a nursing home called St Basil’s, which is run by the Greek Orthodox church.
Savva is likely to have extensive contacts within the Greek community of Melbourne, as she was brought up and schooled there. It is likely that she has heard from some of her Greek relatives and/or other contacts within the Greek community about the situation at St. Basil’s.
It’s not hard to put 2+2 together and posit a possible reason as to why Savva has expressed a negative view on Federal government administration of people under their ultimate care in Federally regulated nursing homes.
If, instead of falling over yourself trying to be a smartarse, you knew anything at all about Savva, you’d also know that she identifies as Greek, and indeed is the author of a book called So Greek: Confessions of a Conservative Leftie, which, if you hadn’t been in such a hurry to troll me on a trivial point that you admit you don’t give a shit about anyway, you might have checked up on.
Everyone knows that Cyprus has both Greek and Turkish communities, and that it was once formally divided along ethnic lines. They even had a war over it. Do you think you’re the only genius aware of that?
When it’s pointed out just how wrong you were on the fact and how petty your point was (by your own admission), you counter it by accusing me of being obsessive-compulsive.
You’re just too much of a smartarse for your own good DP. Next time you buy into a factual dispute, try coming armed with facts instead of smartarsery.
And if you’re wrong, either admit it, or keep the insults to yourself.
lizzie @ #797 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:35 am
Savva must have been asleep for some time (see below). This is more a take over rather than merely finding a home , they already had one.
QLD 2020 Election Predictions:
It’s been a month since the last QLD thread and since I posted my last round of predictions (still awaiting final NT Results to see how I went there). To report my last predictions:
ALP 41, LNP 40, KAP 3, GRN 2, ON 1, IND 1 , 5 Toss Ups
(Green to gain South Brisbane, Toss-ups: Bundamba, Maryborough, Mundingburra, Thuringowa, Whitsunday)
Seats to watch: Aspley, Baron River, Gaven, Keppel, Logan, Mansfield, Mulgrave, Redlands, Rockhampton, Springwood, Townsville,
———————————————–
I won’t post a full detailed analysis/prediction until a dedicated QLD thread pops-up again by I now have my numbers as follows:
ALP 39, LNP 33, KAP 3, GRN 2, ON 1, IND 1, 14 Toss Ups
(Toss Ups [brackets indicate party leaning]: Caloundra [LNP], Chatsworth [LNP], Cook [ALP], Gaven [ALP], Glasshouse [LNP], Keppel [ALP], Lockyer [LNP], Maryborough [ALP], Mulgrave [ALP], Mundingburra [??], Pumicestone [Possible ALP Gain], Thuringowa [??], Townsville [Goodluck in this one! See notes below], Whitsunday [NQ])
Forcing those toss-ups to lean. I get final numbers:
ALP 45, LNP 37, KAP 3, GRN 2, ON 1, NQ 1, IND 1, No idea 3
For a brief summary of interest:
*From various sources I get the following candidates currently endorsed: ALP 77 seats, LNP 78, Green 32, KAP 12, One Nation 36, Palmer 11, IND 3, AJP 6, Legalise Cannibis Qld 13, IMOP 12, Motorists/No Tolls 1)
Mundingburra and Thuringowa are Townsville based seats. It could literally go to anyone of ALP, LNP, ON or KAP.
Pumicestone: LNP Member (2017-2020) retiring. Open seat. ALP Candidate Ali King who ran as the ALP Candidte in Maiwar in 2017. Was ALP pre-2017 and on such a tight margin less than 1 %, this is one seat I think the ALP can seriously gain. Although 2 months out to election, anything can happen but see this firming for the ALP.
Whitsunday: Well the ALP candidate was ‘pushed’ with a ‘captains pick’ from AnnaPal (thanks to a previous poster for this shortening, I like it!) for a new candidate. So the old ALP candidate is now barracking for the KAP Candidate. Costigan (NQ 1st) may take from LNP voters with him but right now it’s a NQ lead with possibility of KAP or LNP gain.
Townsville: 8 candidates already endorsed! ALP, LNP, GRN, KAP, NQ, UAP (Palmer), LCQ, IMOP. And that’s before even One Nation picks someone. Seriously, good luck to anyone who can pick the winner from this seat!
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/qld-election-2020-clive-palmer-says-state-cant-afford-labor-win/news-story/000275efdf7e49a44fb8e0260ade34c6
Super Fat Bastard Arsehat to save Queensland, huh?
I just hope that Queensland Labor gather up all the lies he told at the last federal election about Bill Shorten’s Labor and throw them back in his fat face.
Bushfire Bill @ #854 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:04 am
Yawn.
‘Maverick businessman Clive Palmer claims…’
There’s your problem, right there. What he claims bears no resemblance to reality.
C@t your a little intemperate in ur posts this afternoon?
lizzie @ #857 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:13 am
And yet he doesn’t seem to have the money to pay his workers what they’re entitled to.
Politics_Obsessed
Thanks for your interesting assessment 🙂
Women in from the republic party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewTiXYDbIsI
Danama Paperssays:
Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 1:22 pm
lizzie @ #857 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:13 am
Mr Palmer, who says he’s worth $9 billion
And yet he doesn’t seem to have the money to pay his workers what they’re entitled to.
_______________________
You don’t become a billionaire by writing cheques to people. Just ask the owner of Compu-Global-Hyper-Mega-Net.
And he welcomes the improvement.
Either the leader of the Labour Party is doing something right, or the Tories are doing something drastically wrong (my money is on the later – bigly):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/aug/29/boris-johnson-faces-tory-wrath-as-party-slumps-in-shock-poll
PS I don’t know anything about this Opinium mob, and it could be a yooge outlier, but it seems to have BoJo and his unmerry band of miscreants shitting bricks, which can’t be a bad thing.
If Bojo starts a long descent down the gurgler, and Trumpenstein goes down, then ScoMoFo…., well let’s just say I’d hate to be a cleaner at Engadine Maccas. 😆
Assantdj @ #851 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 12:31 pm
Lovely read Assantdj. All the best to you all
Biden only won the nomination because Obama persuaded the other centrists to withdraw. Had there been no intervention there would have been no consolidation behind Biden, Bernie would have won the nomination, and the Democrats would be in a much stronger position right now.
Neoliberal corporatist Democrats are more concerned to preserve their stranglehold on the Democratic Party than to remove Trump. That is the bottom line. Americans are paying a very steep price because of that power play.
Nicholas @ #869 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:57 am
So the majority was never with Sanders and his only chance was to have other candidates splitting the vote! 😆
ItzaDream @ #819 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:17 am
They can judicially interpret it. Though the text leaves little wiggle-room for interpretation:
Suppose an argument can be made that Trump can get extra terms if it’s by appointment rather than by election. But then who makes the appointments? The Court, I suppose?
But can’t see the current Supreme Court pushing that sort of interpretation. There aren’t enough Trump lackeys on it, yet.
The Sparrow Project
@sparrowmedia
·
5m
DEVELOPING: A protestor was just shot in Portland near the Justice Center, reports of multiple shots fired, situation fluid.
Robert Evans (The Only Robert Evans)
@IwriteOK
·
3m
One person, reportedly a black male, shot and very likely killed in Downtown Portland after Trump Cruise. Unclear if it was connected.
Ambulance drove off leaving body. Police were not rendering aid. I saw no motion.
America……
a r @ #871 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 12:02 pm
Trump could argue that he never acted as a President! 🙂
Politics Obsessed,
I won’t try and match the detail of your review. I think its really hard to read the election at this stage. The Southerners will all be going – hey cakewalk for Palasczuck given COVID19 and the low profile of Deb Frecklington, but i think that underestimates how much Queenslanders are tired of Labor.
If I had to guess, it would be the LNP winning 5 or so regional swats (the Townsville three plus Maryborough and another one somewhere), but nothing else. Plus the Greens get South Brisbane. I don’t think the ALP will.win any.
This would give a result of ALP 42 seats, greens 2, ind 1, KAP 3, ON1, LNP.44. So a minority LNP government as I can’t see the Katters supporting Labor given the way Palasczuck treated them, plus they are basically more to the right overall.
But despite trecent polling showing the LNP ahead, and the betting markets, most people still seem to think the ALP win.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #872 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 2:07 pm
And never profoundly!
And thanks ar. He’s already been saying, often, that he’s been robbed of his first term by the wicked impeachment process. Nothing is off his perpetual victim agenda. As David Frum said, all he can feel is pain, and all he can give back is …. pain.
The Dems need to win both houses, and won bigly. Anything less than very convincing will be disputed, and if it goes to the Court, we know how that went last time.
https://twitter.com/TheRealCoryElia/status/1299908378810957825
Cory Elia
@TheRealCoryElia
Driving through crowds and macing out of vehicles at SW 4th and Washington.
Trump Supporters.
The estate of Leonard Cohen joins a looooong list of other artists and former artists unhappy with their work being associated with Trump.
https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/08/leonard-cohens-estate-may-sue-donald-trump-for-unauthorized-use-of-hallelujah
DP wrote:
I’ll take that as a concession of defeat from Danama.
Starts a fight. Runs away when confronted by facts.
Bushfire Bill @ #877 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 12:47 pm
I’m still here, S.F.B*.
By the way, if you look back on today’s posts YOU were the one who picked a fight with both me and the Growler, because your anall retentive nature just couldn’t let anyone else be right, so you spent more time than either me or the Growler could be bothered with looking up the exact details of Nikki Savva’s ancestry.
All I did was point out what a dickhead you are by obsessing over such trivial shit.
AND YOU”RE STILL OBSESSING WITH IT!
FFS, get a life, or even an existence would be an improvement.
Oh, and in case you’re wondering, I’m off out now for about half an hour. I know you’ll still be here when I get back, so that gives you time to work yourself up into a right old lather.
Toodle pip.
MeidasTouch.com
@MeidasTouch
·
36m
The Radical Right are now shooting people with paintballs from close range from their pickup trucks
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1299926306981777410
So what Victorian Federal seats are in danger if the religious nutcases take over the Libs down there? Savvy Victorian Bludgers please fill in the blanks.
Australians are a notoriously unreligious lot. Perhaps you could say even “anti-religious”? We are not America, where every street corner has a pop-up church full of Happy Clappers and God-fearing adulterers.
What possible benefit could the Religious Right hope to achieve, now that the branch stacking cat is out of the bag? As long as it is kept stealthy religious nuttery makes progress, but when it’s exposed it usually dies a large and ugly death at the polling booth.
The suspicion of course is that ScoMo wants to see more religion in government, not less. It’s the Pentecostal way. But he’s sensible enough to hide his zealotry, even almost deny it on occasions. The la-la land Victorians don’t seem to care.
What are the odds for an implosion in Victoria if Morrison keeps backing the anti-Andrews terrorists?
“ Biden only won the nomination because Obama persuaded the other centrists to withdraw. ”
Just horseshit Nicholas. Unadulterated horseshit. A complete historical fiction. Deluded.
Rank and file support for the other ‘centrists’ tanked and surprisingly little of that went to your puny god.
Obama only came out and endorsed Biden way later. Neither he or his proxies were hitting the phones for joe or pulling in favours in early to late March. Actual democrat supporters simply worked out that Bernie couldn’t shift his plurality out of the low 30s and that none of the other candidates left in the race – warren and Buttigieg etc etc – could sustain anything more that bare double digit support.
Joe on the other hand demonstrates he could get the job done in the one geographical area that his threadbare campaign could actually mount an on the ground presence – the Carolinas – and that was enough for real democrats to simply shift back behind him.
Nicholas
With how the Federal Reserve is acting it is not much of a neoliberal country.
M.McMahon
@martinm34060415
Trump Re-election Plan
1. Create conditions for social disorder by stoking racial tensions
2. Manipulate media imagery to amplify social tensions
3. Send in National Guard to suppress ( incited) protests
4. Use all of above to scare voters to re-elect Trump
I know what they think of Palmer in WA. It starts with a C and ends with a T.
Next thing you know, Nicholas will start spouting QAnon dumpster garbage at us. 😆
Danama Papers @ #866 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 1:49 pm
Amazing how an effective leader can turn things around.
Starmer will be the next PM
steve davis @ #885 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 3:13 pm
Cat? 😉
BB
The most likely candidates would be Deakin Menzies and Casey. Depending on how the religious right developed it could see the Liberals improve among migrant communities in Melbourne’s north and south east.
PORTLAND, Ore. —
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/29/blm-activists-counterprotesters-clash-portland-leading-arrests/
DP,
I made an obvious point about Nikki Savva’s position on Federally regulated nursing homes, backed up by facts. I left it at that. Didn’t make a big thing out of it. It was a passing comment about the Insiders program.
The point I was making may be completely wrong. But it won’t be because Nikki Savva is a Turkish Cypriot, as you suggested.
At least I argued my case. Your response was to buy into the discussion, first with erroneous facts, then by throwing around insults when pinged for them, like a child would do.
You’re STILL acting like a child, and are obviously way out of your depth. I’m quite happy to let it go, but not at the expense of being labelled as a dickhead, an obsessive compulsive and accused of talking shit simply because I proved I was correct in my facts (and you were wrong).
YOU’RE the one who said he doesn’t care about Savva’s ethnicity. Why are you continuing to be so childish about it?
The police in America should pay a price for allowing this to happen:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/protests-violence/2020/08/27/3f232e66-e578-11ea-970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html
White power Trump Supporter Cowards using guns at protesting:
https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1299887480074838017
maybe the civil war won’t wait for the election. -a.v.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 3:24 pm
“The police in America should pay a price for allowing this to happen:”
Have you seen Portland or Seattle in the great State of Oregon? The intimidation of people leaving the Whitehouse after the RNC close?
Yet, Police have to pay for what?
Bucephalus says:
Sunday, August 30, 2020 at 3:33 pm
Siding with Trump.
If C@t or anyone else has seen “Seattle in the great State of Oregon”, the situation is worse than I feared.
“ The point I was making may be completely wrong. But it won’t be because Nikki Savva is a Turkish Cypriot, as you suggested.”
Huh?
While I dunno what the ‘debate’ between DP and BB is headed (I usually scroll past a lot of that) Nikki is definitely not a Turkish Cypriot. She hails from Choli, part of the internationally recognised Republic of Cypress. I’d eat a hat if she were actually of Turkish extraction.
Mindless anti-Trump protesters thinking their doing anything else other than putting him back in the WH.
Dolts.