When too much of the above is barely enough:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published preference flow data from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election, showing exactly how many of each candidate’s preferences ended up with Labor and Liberal. Of the 6.34% Nationals vote, 77.73% went to Liberal and 22.27% went to Labor, compared with an unusually polarised 87.16% and 12.84% in 2019, and 55.98% of preferences from the 5.34% Shooters Fishers and Farmers vote went to Labor and 44.02% to Liberal, after the party directed preferences to Labor on its how-to-vote cards. More on this from Kevin Bonham.
• Roy Morgan has published an SMS poll conducted in Victoria, which finds strong support for the state’s lockdown measures: 89-11 in favour of compulsory face masks, 76-24 against reopening schools and day care centres to all, 71-29 against relaxing the 5km travel restriction, 75-25 against allowing table service at pubs, restaurants and cafes, and 72-28 against lifting the curfew. The closest result to dissent was a relatively narrow 57-43 against allowing visits to immediate family members, currently allowed only for delivering care or essential services. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2110.
• A Pew Research Centre survey global survey finds 94% of Australian respondents believing their country had done a good job of handling COVID-19 compared with 6% for bad, a shade behind Denmark as the best result out of 14 countries. The only two countries that failed to crack 50% positive ratings were the United States and United Kingdom, at 47% and 46% respectively. Australia’s performance on the question of whether the country was now more united than before the outbreak was more modest, at 54% for more united and 40% for more divided, compared with a 14-nation median of 46% and 48%. The United States was a serious outler at 18% for more united and 77% for more united. The Australian component was conducted by telephone from June 11 to July 25 from a sample of 1016.
• The West Australian reports that WA Liberal Party state director Sam Calabrese will not contest the preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, after earlier being considered the front-runner. The list of prospective nominees now seems to consist of Joe Francis, a Barnett government minister who lost his seat of Jandakot in the 2017 state election landslide; Sherry Sufi, arch-conservative party policy committee chairman; and Julian Ambrose, a director at construction company BGC and the stepson of its late founder, Len Buckeridge.
• My coverage of the Northern Territory election count contains with daily updates and live results reporting here. Labor has 13 confirmed wins out of 25 and leads over the CLP in another two; the CLP with six confirmed wins and leads over Labor in one; and the Territory Alliance with a lead over CLP in another.
lizzie @ #797 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:35 am
…Because that’s what Morrison, Alex Hawke and Stuart Robert want too.
Am I the only one who can remember three generation households (and the family that prays together stays together!).
My mother ‘nursed’ her mother-in-law until the very end, when she was moved into what was then called a ‘convalescent home’, not surprisingly run by nuns. Nanna had her own room with a big wooden commode chair. She smelt. She would massage my scalp, as I sat between her legs facing the open fire, with her strong bony fingers. She chewed then swallowed scrabble tiles (did we call them tors?) thinking they were toffees. She had started what would become Sydney’s leading hair salon and beauty product line with rooms at the top of Culwalla Chambers, then Sydney’s tallest building, having intorduced Marcel Waving to the colony. She died penniless, gave it all away they said. It was a beautiful and lasting relationship than I would be the lesser for had she been spirited away and visited once a Sunday because of inconvenience, or the need for a two income family.
She’s one of the ones I want to catch up with however that works, along with my same aged cousin who had dreadful cerebral palsy and painted with a head brush and talked with a foot tapping on an alphabet mat. I think he killed himself.
There’s no going back, but there’s looking back, and planning forward.
Mike Madrid from the Lincoln Project has been saying similar things. I’ve previously posted his comments here.
Cat
Sorry I accidentally pressed post before I put the link in.
Black magic is all the Libs have got.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1299529303541993472
So what’s the verdict, PB?
If Trump is re-elected, will the US descend into civil war?
C@t, here is adrian’s latest comment from the US politics post:
“And in the first two polls since the Republican convention, Trump narrows Biden’s national lead to six points, the narrowest lead for Biden in one of those polls for two months.”
The Democrats need to update the stratergery.
For you Less posting, more packing….
Savva notes that Sukkar & Andrews are deeply committed to creating a home for the religious right in the Liberal party.
________
So much like the ALP with its Catholic/SDA wing then?
Update from the local Nats community preselection is that the guy I know missed out. The successful nominee doesn’t sound like your average National party representative (or at least not one you hear about these days).
https://www.nationalswa.com/introducing-your-candidates/
Lizzie
It will be civil war.
Or humanity is doomed as Climate Change has its consequences.
Plus don’t be surprised if Trump does a Kruschev and puts nuclear missiles on Taiwan.
I don’t think Obama was doing hyperbole with his DNC speech.
If she floats she’s a witch.
GG
She is the Bunnings nutter.
She also did a YouTube video other day stating that she has been going to the tunnels after curfew and whilst she did not find any children. She found a toddlers foot.
Batshit crazy
guytaur @ #809 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:53 am
Climate Change is critically important. Whatever else, Biden says he will cancel the Paris withdrawal notification before the deadline (is it February?)
Inflammatory much?
Trump is suggesting he will visit Wisconsin where the protests continue after Jacob Blake was shot repeatedly in the back, rendered paralysed waist down, then wrists shackled to the side of the hospital bed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-30/donald-trump-to-visit-wisconsin-jacob-blake-shooting-protests/12610122
I’m not really into the whole civil war doom porn, but I will say it will be horrible not for us but for the people who don’t have the ability to stand up for themselves or the means of survival. White podcasters will be fine, Australian commentators will be fine, millionaire actors/directors/producers will be fine. BIPOCs, LGBT+, the poor? Not so much. And no, they don’t have the luxury to wait another 4 years until the correct option (according to upper-middle-class cool white kids) comes along.
lizzie
I have completely lost my faith in polls. Like it or not their is a proprietor bias and you have to look at proprietor aims to get a feel for what the results say but:
1) The difference is close to 10%, not even close.
2) Trump just won, ok some of the group that voted for him will vote again, where are the new votes?
3) In the US voter turnout is important. Trump has just spent 4 days energizing the democrat base.
4)Nepotism in full and open display, will the USA accept that?
My vote is:
Lots of reporting that it is close, get the vote out, sell the papers.
Biden will win.
Congress will stay democrats.
I don’t think the democrats will get the senate but it will be close.
Because of senate is still republican America won’t change much.
Confessions @ #803 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 8:44 am
This year more than any other the Dems cannot afford to be complacent, no matter what the pollsters say.
Whatever else, Trump being reelected will very likely see the end of only two term presidents imo.
lizzie @ #806 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 8:49 am
I think a civil war is more likely if Trump loses.
It isn’t necessarily a question of what happens if Trump wins, but if Trump loses. In particular if he refuses to accept the result and/or refuses to depart the WH.
He’s already making noises about the outcome being rigged, presumably in anticipation that he loses. He is already legitimising white male violence against minority groups. Those alone have huge ramifications for the democracy and society as a whole, never mind for those who will suffer in particular from a Trump win/refusal to leave the WH.
ItzaDream @ #814 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:06 am
I think that’s a stretch. It takes a Constitutional amendment to get rid of the two-term limit. That’s two-thirds support in both houses of Congress, and two-thirds of the states. No way Trump clears that hurdle.
One thing that would definitely happen though is a complete takeover of the Supreme Court. Ginsburg at least is unlikely to hang on for another 4 years.
So, either way there’s civil war.
A quick check and of course, gun sales are of the charts
{Firearm background checks compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, a proxy for gun purchases, jumped to a record in June as street demonstrations spread around the U.S. That extended a surge that began in March as the coronavirus prompted lockdowns across the country.
https://fortune.com/2020/07/02/record-gun-sales-coronavirus-election-smith-wesson-sturm-ruger/
a r @ #820 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:13 am
Can the Supreme Court amend the amendment? It can elect Presidents.
I worry about Ginsberg holding on for four more months…
Far too much from me. Off to do some watering. Have a pleasant Sunday all.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
6,139,078
Deaths:
186,855
– 42,843 new cases and 954 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Michael Moore warns of 2016 repeat: Enthusiasm for Trump ‘OFF THE CHARTS’
Filmmaker Michael Moore warned Democrats that President Trump appears to have momentum behind his reelection campaign in key battleground states, with the progressive activist saying enthusiasm for Trump is “OFF THE CHARTS” compared with Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Moore pointed to polling in battleground states such as Minnesota and Michigan in making the case that Trump was running alongside or ahead of Biden in key areas, setting himself up for another potential upset in November.
“Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC [Democratic National Committee] to pull this off?” Moore wrote in a Facebook post on Friday.
“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he added. “Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!”
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/514247-michael-moore-warns-of-2016-repeat-enthusiasm-for-trump-off-the-charts
Low enthusiasm for Biden? So frickin predictable.
Really hope this is the wake up call that the Democratic Establishment needs. They cannot just assume Trump is going to lose, take states for granted, and repeat the very same mistakes which cost Clinton victory last time – that is asking to be defeated again. Trump should lose in a massive landslide after his catastrophic mishandling of the response to COVID. The fact that he is still within striking distance should be setting off alarm bells in the Biden camp.
It doesn’t matter. If he loses, at noon on January 20, he stops being President. Period. If he refuses to leave, he gets escorted out. Simple. You don’t leave the office, the office leaves you.
And no, no military or civil figures are going to risk being arrested, tried, stripped of any rank, and sentenced to life in prison (or even death) just to help a narcissistic septuagenarian cling on to power for a few more years. Especially one who has shown he will turn on his subordinates on a whim, over the slightest of transgressions. They are more likely to just grin-and-bear a Biden administration (if they even object to him that much to begin with.)
My prediction: If Biden wins, Trump huffs and puffs, there will be talk about faithless electors that amounts to nothing, Trump huffs and puffs more, there will be talk about the congressional count that amounts to nothing, Trump huffs and puffs more and then Biden becomes President. Fin.
ItzaDream @ #822 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 9:17 am
Trump can launch legal proceedings against the election result, thus delaying the swearing in of Biden. However I recall reading recently that if that happens then Pelosi would be the stand in president while the case was being heard.
Wouldn’t THAT be fun! 😆
RL:
I hope you are right. But in any case, however it might play out, to get to that point the Democrats need to first win the election.
“I think a civil war is more likely if Trump loses.”
***
Yep, totally agree. Some of Trump’s more extreme supporters will completely lose the plot if he is defeated. It won’t be pretty.
BLM need to ask themselves a few questions…
What do we want ?
How do we best achieve that ?
If the answer is “Trump out !” , then an effort needs to be made to deprive him of political capital – which is the need for increased law enforcement.
Therefore, however difficult it may be, the protests need to stop and a sense of calm returned in the lead up to November.
“ Low enthusiasm for Biden? So frickin predictable.
Really hope this is the wake up call that the Democratic Establishment needs. They cannot just assume Trump is going to lose, take states for granted, and repeat the very same mistakes which cost Clinton victory last time – that is asking to be defeated again. Trump should lose in a massive landslide after his catastrophic mishandling of the response to COVID. The fact that he is still within striking distance should be setting off alarm bells in the Biden camp.”
_____
You really are that idiot in search of a village ain’t you.
At the beginning of March this year Sleepy joe had no money, no momentum, no campaign presence in most states, nothing. The establishment didn’t do anything to get him across the line. It was the spectacular failure of your messiah to get out the wunderwaffe cohort of first time voters in the primaries (which is just a race amongst political enthusiasts and one would think pretty easy for a populist like Bernie to actually win) PLUS the equally spectacular failure of any of the other candidates in the race to generate sufficient momentum that saw actual, real life democrat voters – people – turn to Joe as the best option at the eleventh hour.
I’ve long been on record as calling Biden the worst ever presidential candidate in history. Unfortunately the other dozen or so prospects – your man foremost amongst them – were worse.
Voter enthusiasm is and always was the most important factor in this year’s election. Relying on a coalition of hate directed at Trump is in my view a very poor strategy.
Maybe sleepy joe will actually win on the basis of a promise of a return to basic political norms, but against the insane levels of enthusiasm of the trumpistas in the rural and small towns of the rust belt, I’m not confident. However, the idea that Bernie – or any of the other failed democrat candidates would do better is laughable.
The left and the threat of war again.
Am still waiting on the war with Indonesia over boat turnbacks that was predicted by many on this blog.
Sheesh….
Smartarses, always want to show off their profound geographical knowledge.
Savva was born in the village of Choli (in Greek: Χόλη), which is located in the far west of Cyprus, in what used to be called “Greek Cyprus”.
Her father’s name is Andreas. Mother’s name is Elpiniki.
Greek enough for you?
There’s always a qoute for Morrison.
Rex Douglas @ #832 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 9:37 am
You make it sound like BLM is a single entity.
I think that is definitely not the case, the responses and protests have been more spontaneous and mainly reacting to local events, especially since the initial round of protests.
Hopefully the Biden campaign can use this to undo Trumps better economic manager status
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/509735-unemployment-claims-rise-for-second-wee
Labor seems to be picking up on this. Though of course our recession of 6% is lower than Canada or the US.
ItzaDream @ #814 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 11:03 am
Putting out the fire with gasoline.
There’s a nice thread on twitter, looking at an image the Herald-Sun is running of crowds on the beach at Ocean Grove, showing what the beach actually looked like at that time (impressive social distancing, police supervision) and explaining how the use of lens settings compresses images – in this case, to make people look a lot closer to each other than they actually were.
The poster had noticed the photographer on the beach with ‘a lens the size of a toddler’ at the time.
Bushfire Bill @ #834 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 9:42 am
Fixed that for you. You’re welcome.
For spelling pedants and grammar nazis.
I just can’t abide smartarsery, DP, especially yours, where a simple, accurate factual confirmation by me is labelled as “obsessive compulsive” for no other reason than you want to create a shitfight.
I’ll add “trolling” to that, besides smartarsery.
Greensborough Growler @ #842 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:05 am
It could be why I have always been so bad at spelling. 🙂
zoomster
the ‘crowding’ was naturally used against Andrews in his presser.
There was also lots of “When”, and “can you guarantee?” I didn’t watch it all.
Bushfire Bill @ #843 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:09 am
People are often repelled by people who share a similar character trait.
I’m getting tired of the repetition of that ” Can you read this?” stuff. Why should anyone have to fight through a spelling muddle just to please someone too lazy to learn the right way? A teacher’s job is hard enough already.
I’m expecting Michael Cohen, Trumps former right hand man, coming forward with the receipts against mango Mussolini.
A game changer if you will.
The Republicans wont accept Biden so expect them to go thermal on Biden with hearings and the like and if Trump won the Democrats will sulk like crazy for four years.
Bushfire Bill @ #842 Sunday, August 30th, 2020 – 10:09 am
SRSLY? You had to go to all that trouble just to prove you’re right.
Neither myself nor GG gave two shits about Savva’s ancestory. You did though.
I’l help you out abit further (which is far more than you deserve), if you don’t like “smartarsrery” or “pedantry”, why don’t you take up Mr William Bowe’s advice to you: