Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

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  1. Bucephalus @ #3047 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:13 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 6:11 pm

    What happens if there’s no room downstairs?

    You think the ferry crews are morons?

    No, but they are going to have to do an unnecessary job now which they shouldn’t be expected to do and so will now include the job of safety officer.

  2. Hands up all those who think the current River Cat design with no external seating should have been kept and those who like sitting outside if possible.

  3. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 6:16 pm

    “No, but they are going to have to do an unnecessary job now which they shouldn’t be expected to do and so will now include the job of safety officer.”

    Just bugger off.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #3043 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:09 pm

    ItzaDream @ #3036 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:02 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2998 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:54 pm

    ItzaDream @ #2993 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:52 pm

    Here’s the abortion cells are ethically compromised letter, with three signatories.

    https://twitter.com/cokeefe9/status/1297777711004360706

    It’s a pretty poor effort imo. It gives me no concept of how they think this is bad. Using phrases like ‘little girl’ betrays the need to use emotion as some adjunct to the inexplicable. Self promotion along the lines that they encouraged people to comply with COVID restrictions at their own expense ($ !!) without mentioning or giving thanks for jobseeker adds zip to their abortion cells are ethically compromised stance, in fact further suggests they are feeling they’re on weak ground.

    If anyone here supports this stance, I would seriously welcome an explanation. I do not understand how the products of an abortion are (in the best words I can find atm) sinful. It’s not like the foetus aborted itself. That’s a miscarriage, which afaik, isn’t sinful.

    I would have thought using the cells to do good would be a desired outcome. But no.

    The first step towards developing the Soylent Green indsutry.

    That doesn’t answer the question GG which, to rephrase, is why are aborted foetal cells ethically ‘tainted’.

    My presumption is they believe the cells are compromised because abortion is seen (by them) as murder. The extension of that is that you couldn’t use George Floyd’s organs for transplants; he was murdered. If Oxford were paying women to get pregnant to have abortions to harvest foetal cells, I can see some ethical questions, but otherwise, it looks to me like simply abortion bad therefore let there be no good come of it, even if good there be.

    I understand you see it as another sunrise industry. You’ve obviously read the glossy brochure.

    I just would rather it did not happen and alternativeswere explored.

    The first sentence is offensive and does you no credit.

    The second is perfectly acceptable and reasonable, while still without any attempt to address the question, because I assume you can’t.

  5. Bucephalus @ #3054 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:17 pm

    Hands up all those who think the current River Cat design with no external seating should have been kept and those who like sitting outside if possible.

    On the Brisbane City Cats, you can sit in the bow or the stern in the open air – what’s wrong with that?

    Geez this discussion is just like shooting a Seahorse in a barrell!

  6. ajm @ #3045 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:12 pm

    Bucephalus @ #3042 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:09 pm

    Victoria says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 5:41 pm

    “It is a big joke. Fancy ferries not fitting properly under the bridges it is supposed to travel through.”

    No, it’s not. The two bridges on one leg are very low. The choice was have no seating at all on the upper deck or ask passengers to come down for one leg. It’s an excellent compromise.

    Chortle

    Didn’t the Marx Brothers have a Movie called Duck Sloop?


  7. Bucephalus says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 6:17 pm

    Hands up all those who think the current River Cat design with no external seating should have been kept and those who like sitting outside if possible.

    Will they be as fast as the river cats? Or are they that slow, getting downstairs will not be an issue?

  8. Bucephalus @ #3049 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:13 pm

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 6:11 pm

    What happens if there’s no room downstairs?

    You think the ferry crews are morons?

    No, just you!

    In this situation they would have to offload passengers at the previous stop, they would then have to wait for the next ferry.

  9. Socrates

    Agree. How leaders handle loss and failure is as important as how they handle victory and success. Maybe even more so. Finocchario did not cover herself in glory on Saturday night.

    The CLP now have to decide whether to keep Finocchario, or choose another leader from the (checks election results) three other CLP MPs. 🙂

  10. So you have a boat with a full or near full load of passengers and ………………QUICK DOWNSTAIRS………………………what could possibly go wrong ?

  11. There is an ethical dilemma to using the remains of abortions for science, or anything. It has been and still is a source of debate. I do not know what I think about the issue. I certainly have a problem with companies making profit from it.

    But this cell line was developed years or decades ago, so it is a bit late to complain about ethical boundaries.

  12. PuffyTMD @ #3064 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:31 pm

    There is an ethical dilemma to using the remains of abortions for science, or anything. It has been and still is a source of debate. I do not know what I think about the issue. I certainly have a problem with companies making profit from it.

    But this cell line was developed years or decades ago, so it is a bit late to complain about ethical boundaries.

    It’s never too late!

  13. So, Firefox wasn’t banned due to his comments. He was banned from posting large chunks of other’s work. A bit disingenuous, mate, when declaring it was all about free expression.

  14. The solution with the river vessels is simple. If there is only one metre of clearance above the rails – raise the rails.

    Slight error there – Ozzie men are all taller than 6 feet – sun bronzed and excellent swimmers.

    Goodnight all. 📺 Foyle’s War — 💤

  15. “So, Firefox wasn’t banned due to his comments. He was banned from posting large chunks of other’s work. A bit disingenuous, mate, when declaring it was all about free expression.”

    ***

    Hardly. I was not informed as to why I was banned when I was banned and am constantly attacked by all and sundry for my views. I cannot speak to anyone’s motivations for doing what they do, I am not a mind reader. I accept that William doesn’t like people posting full articles on his website, regardless of whether doing so is covered by fair use or not. That is his call. Frankly, I understand it too. Even if he has nothing to worry about, as a webmaster you still don’t want even the thought of big media companies coming after you. I get that.

  16. The ferries were heaps cheaper than Aussie made ones so a few passenger decapitations is acceptable collateral damage for the savings.

    So said someone in conservative land

  17. Firefox:

    [‘I accept that William doesn’t like people posting full articles on his website…’]

    And for sound reasons. Anyway, get back on board, following the guidelines.

  18. Haven’t heard about this until now:

    Former prime minister John Howard has been taken to a Sydney hospital after visiting his doctor.

    Sky News reported Mr Howard, 81, Australia’s oldest living prime minister, was taken to hospital on Monday morning, telling the network he was “fine”.

    Political reporter Andrew Clennell said he was taken to hospital after a visit to his GP, with an undisclosed illness, not COVID-19 related.

    A spokesman for his office later said the condition was not coronavirus-related.

    It is understood the doctor advised Mr Howard to take an ambulance to hospital.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/08/24/john-howard-hospital/

  19. Firefox @ #3068 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 6:51 pm

    “So, Firefox wasn’t banned due to his comments. He was banned from posting large chunks of other’s work. A bit disingenuous, mate, when declaring it was all about free expression.”

    ***

    Hardly. I was not informed as to why I was banned when I was banned and am constantly attacked by all and sundry for my views. I cannot speak to anyone’s motivations for doing what they do, I am not a mind reader. I accept that William doesn’t like people posting full articles on his website, regardless of whether doing so is covered by fair use or not. That is his call. Frankly, I understand it too. Even if he has nothing to worry about, as webmaster you still don’t want even the thought of big media companies coming after you. I get that.

    So, it was nothing bu a beat off!

  20. C@tmomma @ #3075 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 4:58 pm

    Haven’t heard about this until now:

    Former prime minister John Howard has been taken to a Sydney hospital after visiting his doctor.

    Sky News reported Mr Howard, 81, Australia’s oldest living prime minister, was taken to hospital on Monday morning, telling the network he was “fine”.

    Political reporter Andrew Clennell said he was taken to hospital after a visit to his GP, with an undisclosed illness, not COVID-19 related.

    A spokesman for his office later said the condition was not coronavirus-related.

    It is understood the doctor advised Mr Howard to take an ambulance to hospital.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/08/24/john-howard-hospital/

    I thought he was older than 81?

  21. The answer to the ferry problem is simple.

    Put a bunghole and bung in the bottom of the hull, and another one on the side of the ferry just above the water line.

    Every time the ferry approaches a bridge remove the bottom bung plug. The ferry will take water, sink lower, then safely traverse under the bridge without damaging passengers’ heads.

    At this point, replace the bottom bung plug.

    Repeat the process at the second bridge.

    When the ferry arrives at its destination, the passengers will alight, and with less weight on board, the ferry will float higher.

    At this point remove the side bung plug, and the water will gush out of the ferry hull, thereby raising it to its correct height for the return trip.

    You see, it’s so simple, if you apply Archimedes Principle and basic engineering knowledge.

  22. “And for sound reasons. Anyway, get back on board, following the guidelines.”

    ***

    I will continue to be guided by my own conscience. 🙂

  23. Fulvio Sammut:

    The solution is even easier.

    The squat effect is the hydrodynamic phenomenon by which a vessel moving quickly through shallow water creates an area of lowered pressure that causes the ship to be closer to the seabed than would otherwise be expected.

    (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Squat_effect)

    The faster you go, the lower you go – so just go really, really fast under those bridges!

  24. The old bugger’s been eating too many apple pips.

    You should never do that without teeth, my nonna used to say.

  25. “So, it was nothing bu a beat off!”

    ***

    *rolls eyes* hardly.

    I do find it amusing that you are all so keen to point out that I am apparently free to express the views I was expressing. It’s a nice change from the constant trolling I get where people tell me that a war where up to two and a half million people died doesn’t matter and that I am somehow in the wrong for bringing it up…

  26. JRehling
    @JRehling
    ·
    5h
    RIP Kim Jong-un
    Born: 1984
    Died: 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 (twice), 2019, 2020 (three times)

  27. Firefox @ #3087 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:16 pm

    “So, it was nothing bu a beat off!”

    ***

    *rolls eyes* hardly.

    I do find it amusing that you are all so keen to point out that I am apparently free to express the views I was expressing. It’s a nice change from the constant trolling I get where people tell me that a war where up to two and a half million people died doesn’t matter and that I am somehow in the wrong for bringing it up…

    There’s nothing more amusing on PB than someone stuck on stupid who repeats the same thing over and over again and thinks they have political insight.

    But, you’re a special case because you actually think that you are relevant to mainstream politics.

    We’re laughing at you, not with you.

  28. “Most normal people are guided by their conscience. Not, whether they are awake or in a stupor.”

    ***

    Yes, I am human, thanks for pointing that out. You may note I corrected myself before you took the last resort available to a desperate person on the internet when they have nothing of substance to add. Pathetic.

  29. In the sentencing hearing of the perpetrator of the Christchurch mosque shootings, there are many moving impact statements, arguably one of the most moving is by a mother whose 35-year-old son who was murdered – forgiving him! Now, that takes some strength.

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