Preselections, defections and state elections

Jockeying begins in earnest for Liberal preselections in Warringah and for the Tasmanian Senate ticket, and a new milestone in the decomposition of Nick Xenophon’s party.

There probably won’t be any polls this week, with the fortnightly Essential Research and tri-weekly Newspoll having dropped last week. But there will of course be a Northern Territory election on Saturday, which is the subject of its own thread here.

Other news:

Sue Bailey of the Launceston Examiner reports that Eric Abetz is expected to retain the top position on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next election, contrary to earlier reports that Jonathan Duniam was planning to topple him, after the two “kissed and made up”. However, the report further says that “another senior Liberal” is doing the numbers for the third candidate who will be seeking re-election, Wendy Askew, who filled the Senate vacancy created last year when her brother, David Bushby, took up a diplomatic post in the United States. Also: “It is believed Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants the pre-selection delayed until next year so as not to be a distraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald has a story on the willing Liberal preselection contest in Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall at last year’s election. Abbott loyalists are said to be advancing the claim of Sacha Grebe, a former Scott Morrison staffer and employee of lobbying firm DPG Advisory, whose principal is David Gazard, a Morrison ally and candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2010. Grebe backer and local party activist Walter Villatora is engaged in a seemingly forlorn bid to have the preselection held as soon as possible. Others said to be in the hunt are “state MP Natalie Ward, state executive member Alex Dore and Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James”.

• There has been a change in the party balance of the Senate with Rex Patrick’s resignation from the Centre Alliance to sit as an independent. The Advertiser ($) has also reported the party’s two remaining members, Stirling Griff in the Senate and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, are the subject of approaches from Liberals to defect to the party, although the notion is meeting bitter resistance from conservatives.

• The results of Tasmania’s recent upper house elections have been finalised, and as expected have resulted in the election of Labor’s Bastian Seidel in the seat of Huon south of Hobart, and of Liberal candidate Jo Palmer in Rosevears. The former was achieved over independent incumbent Robert Armstrong by the comfortable margin of 7.3% at the final count (12,284 votes to 9,152), but the latter proved a close run thing, with Jo Palmer landing 260 votes clear of independent candidate Janie Finlay, 11,492 votes (50.6%) or 11,232 (49.4%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,622 comments on “Preselections, defections and state elections”

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  1. The country would be in a much better place if we had Prime Minister Shorten and a Labor government than we are with Prime Minister Morrison and his coalition government.

  2. Mexicanbeemer @ #47 Sunday, August 16th, 2020 – 9:37 am

    MB
    Reference to the constitution was the best part of the interview.

    It was hamfisted. Speers running interference cast doubt over whether Bill had thought it through. Bill still all over the shop, sentences incomplete, trying to remember to get in all the good bits he had prepared…..I was expecting better. He’s been pretty good latley but this morning he was back to awkward PM in waiting pre election Bill hoping to get a good report card from Mr Speers.
    A decent opposition would have Scrooter on the ropes by now.

  3. Even David Speers seemed to have a benign interaction with Bill Shorten.

    This reflexive antagonism on this blog against Bill Shorten is simply despicable. Based upon very thin gruel.

  4. But then you would say that MB, its in your DNA.

    I’ll accept your criticism of Shorten and Labor in general when you make the same comments about the Liberal Party.

    Just once.

  5. c@tmomma: “meher baba demonstrating his anti Labor prejudices, yet again.”

    Well that’s an odd comment, seeing as I voted for the guy.

    I don’t often agree with Mundo, but I think he is pretty much on the mark: he came along with a whole lot of pre-prepared “clever” things to say (dare I say “zingers”) and was determined to fire them off.

    Other MB: he was lucky he got away with the Constitution stuff. An obvious follow-up question, which for some reason David Speers didn’t ask, was “if it was unconstitutional for the states to be made responsible for hotel quarantine, then why didn’t Federal Labor, Andrews, McGowan, Pala, etc. point this out back in March and refuse to take charge of it?

    What would have been the answer to that?

  6. Shorten seems more comfortable in his skin. And referring to s.51 of the Constitution as Morrison’s job description was a pearler.

  7. I would call having an obsession with having petty attacks on one politician continuing childish.

    Calling the PM to step up a good call, the Feds are using the State Govt as an out.

    Some posters on here do not do nuance, start talking in the 3rd person as if it is clever and do not discuss politics, polls just have cheap shots.

    Shorten did well.

  8. The answer to that, my biased and bigoted friend, is that someone had to think of the people, and do what should be done, and it was plain it was not going to be Morrison and his galahs.

  9. meher baba @ #58 Sunday, August 16th, 2020 – 7:46 am

    c@tmomma: “meher baba demonstrating his anti Labor prejudices, yet again.”

    Well that’s an odd comment, seeing as I voted for the guy.

    I don’t often agree with Mundo, but I think he is pretty much on the mark: he came along with a whole lot of pre-prepared “clever” things to say (dare I say “zingers”) and was determined to fire them off.

    Other MB: he was lucky he got away with the Constitution stuff. An obvious follow-up question, which for some reason David Speers didn’t ask, was “if it was unconstitutional for the states to be made responsible for hotel quarantine, then why didn’t Federal Labor, Andrews, McGowan, Pala, etc. point this out back in March and refuse to take charge of it?

    What would have been the answer to that?

    Did he say, it was unconstitutional or did he say that, federal Government still maintained constitutional responsibility for these things despite delegating them?

  10. mexicanbeemer

    I think it would have been inappropriate for Shorten to start the i.v. by joking about aged care. Humour in criticism of Morrison, fair enough.

  11. The US reporter doesn’t point out the obvious: why has the Team Trump response to Harris’ nomination been so disordered and unfocused given she was the obvious choice for VP? They’ve ranged over the ridiculous (birtherism) to the inconsistent (far left vs police state zealot) as if they didn’t even see her coming!

  12. Confessions…indeed it seems to imply their reelection campaign is going to be a complete trainwreck. Probably all their ‘talent’ has fled by now.
    Openly trying to destroy the postal service isnt a good look either.

  13. Is that your best shot Firefox?

    Come on, even Pegasus would have come back with incisive repartee in the form of an irrelevant quote from the Greens manifesto, or from Bandt.

  14. Lizzie
    I didn’t suggest laughing about aged care but for an experienced politician Shorten started the interview all over the place in an incoherent fashion.

  15. Scout @ #61 Sunday, August 16th, 2020 – 9:48 am

    I would call having an obsession with having petty attacks on one politician continuing childish.

    Calling the PM to step up a good call, the Feds are using the State Govt as an out.

    Some posters on here do not do nuance, start talking in the 3rd person as if it is clever and do not discuss politics, polls just have cheap shots.

    Shorten did well.

    Thank you, Scout. People could hardly call you a biased commenter.

  16. Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    ·
    3m
    Phew – Insiders got through the week with no mention of the unemployment data last week, the RBA comments, the record low wages growth.

  17. Mexicanbeemer

    I suppose I was concentrating more on the number of times Speers interrupted, and was surprised that it wasn’t his usual aggression.

  18. Firefox

    There is as much cruelty in the breeding of dogs for pets and their treatment by ignorant owners as there ever was in greyhound racing.

  19. I suppose insiders is about the press, we have just had 10 minutes of them trying to justify their despicable behavior over hotel quarantine.

    What a sad performance.

  20. “The Greenites siding with the Anti Labor brigade again I see…”

    ***

    “Anti Labor” lol. One day you might realise that the issues facing the world are far more important than any one party, especially a right wing establishment party which is constantly at war with itself such as Labor. Can’t you see that this relentless infighting only helps the Coalition?

  21. Torchbearer:

    I suspect they will eventually find some consistent line of attack on Harris, although so far they haven’t found one with Biden so it might not happen.

  22. “There is as much cruelty in the breeding of dogs for pets and their treatment by ignorant owners as there ever was in greyhound racing.”

    ***

    No argument there. Puppy farms are a huge problem too.

  23. Despite what meha baba claims

    If the federal election result was with the major political party who won the most seats in the house of reps

    Labor would be in government and bill shorten would be prime minister at the 2016 and 2019 federal election

    Labor won more seats than the Libs/lnp combined in 2016 and 2019

    I’m not counting the national party with the Libs /lnp because they are a separate minority party

  24. Meanwhile….

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    2h
    Trump says all the polling is fake and he has a silent majority, and people are lying to pollsters.
    He is very wound up today.

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    2h
    Just remember, that if Trump really had people telling him that he was winning, he wouldn’t be saying any of this crazy shit right now.

  25. ———
    The country would be in a much better place if we had Prime Minister Shorten
    ———
    No argument there. We probably would have him as PM if is delivery weren’t so shite.

    I will watch… and try to keep an open mind.

  26. Shorten made the point I have long made; quarantine is a federal responsibility. A failure may reflect on those doing the work, on the state government forced to organize the process, but it also falls on the federal government who are responsible for the function.

    It is interesting, the three from the press trying to justify, doing the federal bidding “get Andrews”, couldn’t bring themselves to mention the night clerk was first.

    They have failed to “get Andrews” and made unholy fools of themselves.

  27. frednk,
    The point was made that the Night Manager of the Rydges Hotel is not definiively Patient Zero. No one yet knows who was. If they will ever know.

  28. “Apart from THAT, Firefox, consider your “relentless infighting”.”

    ***

    How can I be involved in Labor “infighting” when I am not part of the Labor Party??? That makes zero sense.

    I am simply making observations about what I see happening again in Labor. You’re the ones who have been asking where Albo is and pumping up Shorten at every opportunity, not me. As usual, it’s the Labor Right Faction who are doing the agitating here.

  29. Frednk

    I havent watched Insiders as yet.
    But did they mention that inquiry starts tmrw and anything about this?

    Rex Patrick
    @Senator_Patrick
    ·
    Aug 15
    There’s going to be a very significant legal fight over the #FOI status of
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    ‘s ‘National Cabinet’. The PM has stretched cabinet confidentiality way beyond legitimate boundaries. Democratic accountability requires this be challenged #auspol
    National cabinet documents might not be available to state hotel inquiry
    The Morrison government intends to assert cabinet confidentiality over meetings of national cabinet, potentially denying Victoria’s hotel quarantine inquiry of documents.
    theage.com.au

  30. C@t:

    Good point. I understood Trump was surrounded by yes people too scared to tell him anything he doesn’t want to hear!

  31. Mundo

    I’m waiting for Maiden’s editorials for news.com.au to report Labor’s media spots with the same enthusiasm her boss has for Morrison’s dodgy mob.

    I’ve heard some good comment from Albo, Tony Burke, Jason Clare, Jim Chalmers Julie Collins, KKK, Penny Wong and more in the past week but nothing much hits the news. I guess they should fabricate and sensationalise more if they want Murdochia to take notice.

    Except that Raf Einstein gave Labor some ammunition. Every question in Parliament should include details of the appalling treatment of some in aged care. That’s sensational in the extreme.

  32. Firefox

    I confess that I am “addicted” to PB as I live on my own and have no one else to talk to about politics. Therefore I read every post, day and night, and I do not agree that people have been pumping up Shorten at every opportunity. Once Nasty Nath left, he has hardly been mentioned.

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