Essential Research leadership ratings, ACT poll, Eden-Monaro wash-up

Poll respondents continue to rate incumbents generously in their response to COVID-19; an ACT poll points to a status quo result at the election there in October; and the preference distribution is finalised from the Eden-Monaro by-election.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly leadership ratings, showing further improvement in Scott Morrison’s standing. He is up three points on approval to 66% and down four on disapproval to 23%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 44% and up two to 30%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is at 52-22, out from 50-27.

The small-sample breakdowns on state government performance finds the Victorian government still holding up reasonably well, with 49% rating it good (down four on a week ago, but well down on a 75% peak in mid-June), while the New South Wales government’s good rating is down a point to 61% and Queensland’s up a point to 68%. Results for the federal goverment are not provided, but will presumably be in the full report when it is published later today.

Fifty per cent now rate themselves very concerned about COVID-19, which is up seven points on a fortnight ago and has been progressively rising from a low of 25% in mid-June. Fifty-six per cent of respondents said they would seek a vaccine straight away, 35% less immediately and 8% not at all. Twenty per cent believed that “hydroxychloroquine has been shown to be a safe and effective treatment”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The federal government’s good rating on handling COVID-19 is down a point to 63%, and its poor rating is steady at 16%.

Other news:

• We had a rare opinion poll for the Australian Capital Territory, which holds its election on October 17, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute. It offered no indication that the Liberals are about to break free of their status as a permanent opposition, with Labor on 37.6%, Liberal on 38.2% and the Greens on 14.6%, compared with 2016 election results of 38.4%, 36.7% and 10.3%. This would almost certainly result in a continuation of the present state of affairs in which the Greens hold the balance of the power. The poll also found overwhelming support for “truth in political advertising” laws, with 88.5% supportive and 4.9% opposed. The poll was conducted on July 20 from a sample of 1049.

• The preference distribution from the July 4 Eden-Monaro by-election has been published, offering some insight into how much Labor’s narrow victory was owed to a Shooters Fishers and Farmers preference recommendation and a higher than usual rate of leakage from the Nationals. The former was likely decisive: when Shooters were excluded at the final count, 5341 (56.61%) went to Labor and 4093 (43.39%) went to Liberal, which includes 5066 first preference Shooters votes and another 4368 they picked up during the preference distribution (including 1222 from the Nationals). When the Nationals were excluded earlier in the count, 4399 votes (63.76%) went to the Liberals, the aforementioned 1222 (17.71%) to Shooters, 995 (14.42%) to Labor and 283 (4.10%) to the Greens. This includes 6052 first preference votes for the Nationals and another 847 they picked up as preferences earlier in the distribution. That would be consistent with maybe 20% of Nationals votes ending up with Labor compared with 13% at the 2019 election, which would not quite account for Labor’s winning margin. At some point in the future, two-candidate preferred preference flow figures will tell us precisely how each candidate’s votes split between Labor and Liberal.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,756 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings, ACT poll, Eden-Monaro wash-up”

Comments Page 53 of 56
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  1. Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    Breaking News: Morrison does press release about ‘intervening’ in issues *already being undertaken and worked through* by both NSW and Qld governments, and in Qld’s case, since Day 1 of the second border close.
    Quote Tweet

    Jennifer Bechwati
    @jenbechwati
    · 1h
    Exclusive: PM @ScottMorrisonMP to write to state premiers tonight to lift border restrictions for essential economic workers in agriculture and also to allow regional residents to access health care – #7NEWS understands NSW will agree to ease some restrictions #auspol twitter.com/7newsaustralia…
    6:53 PM · Aug 15, 2020·TweetDeck
    25
    Retweets and comments
    33
    Likes
    Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    ·
    50m
    Replying to
    @Pollytics
    Imagine waking up one morning as PM and thinking that writing a letter of demand that the sun rises in the east is a constructive use of your time.

  2. I never post here for the simple reason that I’m interested in psephology. As far as I can tell, the primary purpose of this blog is to facilitate one-eyed partisan bickering and same old same glib put downs over, and over, and over, and over from around 15-20 usual suspects and not much else.

  3. William Bowe:

    [‘Saturday, August 15, 2020 at 7:36 pm

    [‘BB, I have a notion that you might have something to do with ItzaDream’s caginess about posting here.’]

    That’s quite surprising, and which could be construed as dear BB might not be a hardharse after all?

  4. Indeed

    David Milner
    @DaveMilbo
    ·
    8h
    In the same fortnight The Australian published a racist cartoon, we found out $10 million given to Foxtel came from COVID relief funds, and the Herald Sun’s horny security guard story was contradicted. Just need an op-ed about ‘immigrant dole bloggers’ and we’ve got Murdoch bingo

  6. William, don’t blame me for your inattention to running the blog properly.

    You deliberately allowed, even promoted trolls here because you formed a dislike against “Labor partisans” and thought you needed some balance.

    But can I remind you that “Labor partisans” have been, in large measure, your bread and butter for over a decade. The trolls don’t give a shit about you. They really don’t. They came here to wreck, not contribute.

    I know you need a fall guy, but I’m not it. Some of The Old Guard have returned here because a couple of trolls quit after you exposed them for being fake accounts. Feels safer here. That’s all.

    P.S. I note P1 is doing HER best to chase Zoomster away again. Why don’t you do something about THAT?

  9. Bushfire Bill @ #2605 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 7:59 pm

    William, don’t blame me for your inattention to running the blog properly.

    You deliberately allowed, even promoted trolls here because you formed a dislike against “Labor partisans” and thought you needed some balance.

    But can I remind you that “Labor partisans” have been, in large measure, your bread and butter for over a decade. The trolls don’t give a shit about you. They really don’t. They came here to wreck, not contribute.

    I know you need a fall guy, but I’m not it. Some of The Old Guard have returned here because a couple of trolls quit after you exposed them for being fake accounts. Feels safer here. That’s all.

    P.S. I note P1 is doing HER best to chase Zoomster away again. Why don’t you do something about THAT?

    Get over yourself.

  10. So Mikakos was not responsible for hotel quarantine but has been stripped of her responsibility for hotel quarantine.
    Work that one out bludgers.

  11. P1 would not be hoping to drive z away, but to spar with her. P1 needs a counter-voice so they can promulgate their Labor-hostile drivel. Lately there’ve been no takers to P1’s snark. The possible resumption of bludging by z would be a relief for P1.

  13. The only problem with that analysis Bush fire Bill is that anyone to the left of Fitzgibbons is labeled as ‘extreme left by you and others on here.

  14. BB, it is nonetheless the case that you called ItzaDream a “psychopath”, and that he wasn’t very happy about it, and that he was of a mind to not continue posting here as a result. So if not causing people to not comment here is your key performance indicator, I think it’s worth bearing in mind.

  15. I’ve never described anyone as ‘extreme left’, but rather preferred to describe the self-styled pop-left as the delinquent tools of the Right, as splitters and imposters.

  22. Bushfire Bill says:
    Saturday, August 15, 2020 at 7:59 pm
    [William, don’t blame me for your inattention to running the blog properly.

    You deliberately allowed, even promoted trolls here because you formed a dislike against “Labor partisans” and thought you needed some balance.

    But can I remind you that “Labor partisans” have been, in large measure, your bread and butter for over a decade. The trolls don’t give a shit about you. They really don’t. They came here to wreck, not contribute.

    I know you need a fall guy, but I’m not it. Some of The Old Guard have returned here because a couple of trolls quit after you exposed them for being fake accounts. Feels safer here. That’s all.

    P.S. I note P1 is doing HER best to chase Zoomster away again. Why don’t you do something about THAT? ]

    there you go again. i saw nothing of the sort. i saw a frank & earnest discussion conducted passionately without personal rancor by two people each of whom stuck to their guns. i found it informative & exemplary in conduct. Bowe is our host, we are his guests. -a.v.

  23. https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-49939123

    Was HW a Soviet spy….probably not, but the CIA, the South Africans and maybe Israel thought he either could be or should certainly be accused of it, or, in the USSR’s KGB, thought he should be recruited even if he wasn’t.

    Wilson was a Labour leader. Of course he would be accused of something unpatriotic.

  24. Davidwh
    Thats because the Libs have nothing meaningful to contribute to prosecute their policies and are unwilling to debate and defend them.

  27. Yeah William,

    well for 6 months you let people here call me “racist”, which is a typical drive-by, hateful thing to say (especially when it isn’t true), and I didn’t see you exactly jumping to my defence, despite virtually every single point and argument I made throughout the period ultimately being proved 100% factual, accurate and/or prescient.

    These ranged from my early promotion of the virtues of total lockdown, to the dangers of aerosol transmission, both of which were condemned as either ignorant or non-existent, and used to label me as “racist”.

    I have also been accused of being “old”, “white”, and “male”, however they are defined (and as if I’d have any choice in any of them), and of having pus dripping from my penis due to an obvious prostate infection, which apparently was affecting my mental health. I’m not the only one who’s copped that shit or similar on YOUR blog (hint: it’s got your name on it).

    Didn’t see or hear you say “Whoa there!” then, either.

  28. Was there ever an investigation?

    Yes, two. A 1987 inquiry concluded the allegations of a security service plot against Wilson were untrue. However, an inquiry by cabinet secretary Lord Hunt in 1996 concluded that “a few, a very few, malcontents in MI5” had “spread damaging malicious stories”.

    Prof Christopher Andrew’s 2009 official history of MI5 confirmed that the service had opened a file on Wilson in 1947, under the code name “Worthington”, after a Communist civil servant spoke approvingly of him. Andrew concluded there had been no MI5 conspiracy and described Wilson as paranoid. However, in his preface, he said there had been “one significant excision” from the book. It was later reported that this was a claim – suppressed by Whitehall on “public interest” grounds – that Downing Street was bugged from 1963 until 1977.

    (Numerous sources recall Wilson telling them during his final spell in No 10 that the building was bugged.)

    The goons did not trust anyone…

  29. A lot of food for thought there, BB. Another approach though might be to apologise to poor old Itza for having sledged him, particularly since you were happy to invoke his return (if that’s what it is) as a blessed event when you thought you could pin his departure on Nath. If it helps, I have a further notion that the reason you sledged him in the first place was that you had him confused with It’s Time.

  36. poroti says:

    Saturday, August 15, 2020 at 8:39 pm
    Non, you really are the Liberal party’s best friend when it comes to attracting votes.

    Have you gone over to the dark side? Am I responsible?

  37. alfred:

    I concur, despite the Alpha-male preponderance, refusing to cite same. I can’t help myself: old BB, GG, who it must be said, shocking as it may be said, are, may I say it, past their prime – so too their satellites – eg dear cat, who sucks up to them.

  39. ItzaDream @ #2864 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 4:24 pm

    EGT – I’ve been saving this for when I might see you. It is a neat little summary of the current stance by the Australian Society of Anaesthetists on Negative Pressure Rooms, which iirc, you have shown some interest in.

    All the best.

    https://www.asa.org.au/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/News/eNews/covid-19/ASA_negative_pressure_rooms.pdf?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email&_zs=RoOdk&_zl=clGm1

    I have quite strong views on this stance being unjustified by the actual clinical evidence extant for SARS-CoV-2, for which there is still no confirmed evidence of actual (as opposed to theoretical) exclusive airborne transmission in humans (curiously enough, there is for ferrets & cats), but the precautionary principal prevents me from decrying it. The clinical epidemiology suggests that it’s droplets/contact (and sharing saliva) all the way down.

  41. Mavis @ #2640 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 8:47 pm

    alfred:

    I concur, despite the Alpha-male preponderance, refusing to cite same. I can’t help myself: old BB, GG, who it must be said, shocking as it may be said, are, may I say it, past their prime – so too their satellites – eg dear cat, who sucks up to them.

    You really are a pathetic piece of excrement, Mavis. Only capable of getting a blog hard-on when the other lonely old men/?s are around and I’m not. How sad you lot must look on a Saturday night when it seems not even members of your own family want to be around you and you are in painful exile on a blog.

    Unlike me. 🙂

  44. Confessions @ #2643 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 8:58 pm

    Lord of Misrule @ #2637 Saturday, August 15th, 2020 – 6:49 pm

    This is what happens when an Apex predator (Nath) is removed from an ecosystem.

    Nah, this is what happens when you put a bunch of intemperate old men in a room together.

    The joint isn’t like this in the mornings when it’s mostly women who comment.

    Exactly. Our conversations are benign and informative.

    Doesn’t it just remind you of the sad, lonely drunks at the pub, whose only reason for going every night of the week is to find comfort in the company of all the other sad old drunks? When they’re not trying to beat the crap out of each other and landing haymakers. 😆

  49. Lord of Misrule:

    Saturday, August 15, 2020 at 8:49 pm

    [‘This is what happens when an Apex predator (Nath) is removed from an ecosystem.’]

    Pal, you need to get over yourself; whatever his fault, nath, in my view, was entertaining, unlike you!

  50. Some insight into the woman running Biden’s campaign. She has some pretty good experience.

    Inside Democratic circles, O’Malley Dillon has long been known for her discipline, organizational skills and strategic sense. She ran the battleground-states operation for then-Sen. Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential effort and was deputy manager of his 2012 reelection campaign. Her twins were born a week after Election Day.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-jennifer-omalley-dillon-transformed-joe-bidens-campaign/2020/08/14/d49de192-dbdd-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-f-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

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